patrick.net

joshuatrio says

Not really concerned about the grid going down.

The people that are panicking are buying bottled water because they think that the water utilities are going to stop working. It's reasonable to assume that they are also expecting the electric to go out.

Booger says

The people that are panicking are buying bottled water because they think that the water utilities are going to stop working. It's reasonable to assume that they are also expecting the electric to go out.

But why? What is the scenario when this could happen? Utility workers not coming to work? They will be replaced by military personnel in very short time.

Just about anything. Stupid panic sell off = quick profit shortly after.

Bitcoin is losing big time as well.

Patrick says

Bitcoin is losing big time as well.

Spreadsheets can lose their value too apparently. lol.

WookieMan says

Spreadsheets can lose their value too apparently. lol.

Lol. That was classic.

NCL got hammered. Was down to $9 earlier today. Thinking this might be the cruise line to stock up on. Only 17 ships to maintain and aren't shitty Carnival ships.

https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/performance/vtiax could be a good buy.

The_Weeping_Ayatollah says

Booger says

The people that are panicking are buying bottled water because they think that the water utilities are going to stop working. It's reasonable to assume that they are also expecting the electric to go out.

But why? What is the scenario when this could happen? Utility workers not coming to work? They will be replaced by military personnel in very short time.

Doesn't matter what is realistic. Stupid people are going to be stupid.

joshuatrio says

NCL got hammered. Was down to $9 earlier today. Thinking this might be the cruise line to stock up on. Only 17 ships to maintain and aren't shitty Carnival ships.

I agree.

DOW up 1985 points today.

The stock market is getting very hard to trust as an indicator of anything.

At first, when shit got real in Wuhan, it didn't budge. Then a bit later it plummeted. Now it's gyrating.

Conclusion: Wall Street really doesn't know what is going to happen. Need to find a better source.

Gold is strangely stable. Seems to imply that people trust that dollars won't be devalued by massive printing by the Fed to keep the banks technically solvent.

Even better buys today after a 3000 point decline. And no wonder, Trump said that the response might last until August.

joshuatrio says

NCL got hammered. Was down to $9 earlier today. Thinking this might be the cruise line to stock up on. Only 17 ships to maintain and aren't shitty Carnival ships.

I'm not a cruiser but those who are into them say NCL is vastly superior; Carnival is like the Sizzler of Cruise Ships.

The difference between staying at a roach motel for spring break and a 4-star resort. The first is fine if you're in your 20s and drinking and partying all night.

Dow takes an other 3000 points in the kisser.

Boeing down to 133

It depends on how the NIkkei and Hang Seng will perform tonight. Asia is on the upswing after beating the CV infections. Futures currently up. If Asia performs well tonight (= significantly lower drop than the US indexes today, ideally not more than a couple percent) we will see a bounce back of a couple percent. If they turn red we may be even or red tomorrow. I think we should be bouncing back for a few days soon. This is oversold.

I don't think stocks here will start going up until the corona craze subsides. Economy will tank, as one can not produce oil, food, or nearly anything of any value "remotely".
If you can work "remotely" then probably your job is not that essential anyways...you are not producing goods.

Respect the technicals.

"Minerd Sees 10%-20% Chance of Virus Outbreak Causing a Global Depression"
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-03-16/minerd-sees-10-20-chance-of-virus-outbreak-causing-global-depression-video

The new infection rates are already trending down, the media of course will use every last bit of panic. We should rebound rather sooner than later, but prob stagnate a while below previous highs.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Hah!

I haven't heard a single person say something like "never again" yet.

Heard it a lot 2001-2002 and 2009-2010. That'll be the Buy Signal.

Yeah, good point as far as "blood on the streets" before you would get back into stocks.

I think Warren Buffett as of December 2019 was sitting on about $130 billion in cash. I wonder what he may be doing now.

mell says

The new infection rates are already trending down, the media of course will use every last bit of panic. We should rebound rather sooner than later, but prob stagnate a while below previous highs.

CDC's website says it is up to a 14 day incubation period and that it is spread through the breathing in or ingesting of infected droplets like respiratory droplets from an infected someone who coughs.

I say give it 8 weeks and well before Biden makes his July 16 speech at the DNC convention. By then the statistics should show a major downturn in new infection rates, and increase in number of people who recovered.

If not, then this could be a bioengineering virus or bioweapon meant to disrupt commerce as well as the election, which means its a gift to the Biden campaign.

MM1 says

mell says

The new infection rates are already trending down, the media of course will use every last bit of panic. We should rebound rather sooner than later, but prob stagnate a while below previous highs.

CDC's website says it is up to a 14 day incubation period and that it is spread through the breathing in or ingesting of infected droplets like respiratory droplets from an infected someone who coughs.

I say give it 8 weeks and well before Biden makes his July 16 speech at the DNC convention. By then the statistics should show a major downturn in new infection rates, and increase in number of people who recovered.

If not, then this could be a bioengineering virus or bioweapon meant to disrupt commerce as well as the election, which means its a gift to the Biden campaign.

Up to 14 days, the vast majority will experience symptoms after 2-5 days. Sure in the US it will take a bit longer since we were the last to get hit, but the market will anticipate from the dropping infection rates in Asia and Europe. Nikkei and Hang Seng green - if they can keep this up tomorrow will be a rebound that could make up for 25%-50% of the losses. Could yo-yo back down but at some point (days to weeks max.) it should be a lasting recovery.

TEOTWAWKI says

Booger says

The people that are panicking are buying bottled water because they think that the water utilities are going to stop working. It's reasonable to assume that they are also expecting the electric to go out.

But why? What is the scenario when this could happen? Utility workers not coming to work? They will be replaced by military personnel in very short time.

Some people are thinking about double disaster. For example, here in California, an earthquake on top of Caronavirus epidemic. If the earthquake knocks out power lines, then that might take down some water pumping stations too and then bye bye tap water.

I heard a rumor there was at least 1 nuke power plant where they've been stockpiling supplies and plan to isolate the staff, making them live on prem while forbidding any outsider visits. I'd imagine they want to make sure they can keep the plant running safely and smoothly by preventing a wave of trained / critical employee sickness or death.

alpo says

If the earthquake knocks out power lines, then that might take down some water pumping stations too and then bye bye tap water.

Sooo, with earthquake being a constant danger they waited until COVID-19 arrival to our shores to stockpile on bottled water? Makes no sense.

HeadSet says

joshuatrio says

NCL got hammered. Was down to $9 earlier today. Thinking this might be the cruise line to stock up on. Only 17 ships to maintain and aren't shitty Carnival ships.

I agree.

Be careful. I'll try to let you know Monday when I make my call to get a $4,500 refund. For some reason they won't give cash back refunds until then... seems fishy. I think I said this in another thread, if I get the hard sell to do a future cruise credit and they up it over the 125% of original fare offer they've already made, then they're fucking running out of cash and want to keep mine. These fucking boats are huge and can't just sit at a dock on shore power without tons of ongoing maintenance and no revenue.

I tend to agree that their fleet size is a benefit on the flagship line, but I don't know about their other brands at all (Oceana & Regent). People I've met on the 3 cruises I've done with NCL are very brand loyal, so I think they have that going for them over Carnival. I did my first and last Carnival cruise last spring break, let's put it that way. Royal has the best ships though hands down. They price their cruises higher out of the big 3, and that could be a negative as it's likely necessary to cover the debt on their huge as mother fucking ships.

I bought some NCL maybe 10 days ago now. So I've already taken a bath on it, but it was a long term hold purchase and nothing I can't afford to lose. No panic here. But I can't recall in my lifetime the entire cruise industry shutting down all of their fleet. For 30 days. If this goes to 60 days or beyond then then I'm not sure some of these companies can stay afloat ;)

Note: I'm generally not an individual stock investor, so take this comment with a grain of salt. I buy on gut feeling which is pure stupidity....lol, but I'm still in the green since opening my account 10 years ago, so I'm not failing so far.

IWOG would have been posting how he shorted the ETFs or went to cash a month ago because he knew this was going to happen

MM1 says

If not, then this could be a bioengineering virus or bioweapon meant to disrupt commerce as well as the election, which means its a gift to the Biden campaign.

You are thinking that TRUMP SUPPORTERS will switch to biden because they believe he will be the guy to rebuild the economy and save the country from corona? GOOD GOD MAN...how could anyone think that, let alone say it in public....

komputodo says

You are thinking that TRUMP SUPPORTERS will switch to biden because they believe he will be the guy to rebuild the economy and save the country from corona? GOOD GOD MAN...how could anyone think that, let alone say it in public....

Lol, right? Despite this panic that the media created, Biden has no chance of getting elected. Can you imagine deadbeat Bernie trying to lead our nation out of this?

Dont catch the proverbial falling knife. But eh your money I ploughed some money into integrated oil so im in no position to tell you dont do it. Oh and dont put more money in the stockmarket that you cant afford to loose in that casino.

PMack says

Dont catch the proverbial falling knife. But eh your money I ploughed some money into integrated oil so im in no position to tell you dont do it. Oh and dont put more money in the stockmarket that you cant afford to loose in that casino.

I've been waiting to pull the trigger on oil.
Looking at OKE, XOM, DIG

I do expect that as soon as the curve of deaths crests, the market will rally bigly, even if there has been some severe damage to the economy overall.

I've been waiting to pull the trigger on oil.
Looking at OKE, XOM, DIG

My Marathon MRO buy last week is still ahead despite the 3 huge stock crashes. I think oil stocks are down mostly on the Saudi-Russia tiff.

It's definitely too early to buy back in. If California keeps public schools closed until fall we're in for a doozy of a recession.

https://www.sfgate.com/news/education/article/California-governor-Most-schools-likely-out-15138882.php

noobster says

PMack says

Dont catch the proverbial falling knife. But eh your money I ploughed some money into integrated oil so im in no position to tell you dont do it. Oh and dont put more money in the stockmarket that you cant afford to loose in that casino.

I've been waiting to pull the trigger on oil.
Looking at OKE, XOM, DIG

My only advice is stay away from frackers, they're going belly up...! I would stick with the majors mega caps: Exxon like you mentionned, Shell, Suncor( long position ), Chevron, BP, Total and to an extent Valero( refineries only) are safer bets.

How do you bet the Dow as a whole?

Mnuchin Warns Virus Could Yield 20% Jobless Rate Without Action.

Red spots contagion extends to credit markets.
Here we go again.
"Demand for U.S. dollars is so high that now there’s a squeeze in credit markets. And the Federal Reserve knows it.

Big corporations from beer brewer Anheuser-Busch InBev SA to Boeing Co. are drawing down billions from their credit lines. Fearful of margin calls and flash crashes, lenders are piling on reserves. Adding to the hair-raising market volatility, banks that typically provide short-term dollar loans are stepping back.

To ease the strain in dollar borrowing, the Fed took action Tuesday, restarting a commercial paper funding facility for U.S. corporates. It also allowed banks and broker-dealers that trade directly with the Fed to borrow cash secured against some stocks and higher-rated bonds.

But that doesn’t do much to ease funding tightness overseas. For evidence, look no further than currency swaps, which measure how expensive it is to borrow in dollars. If a Japanese bank wants to offer a dollar loan to a client, the bank, pocketful of yen deposits, would typically lend its yen in exchange for an American bank’s dollars using currency swaps. This practice is common across Asian markets — and the costs are soaring.

Since the global financial crisis, foreign banks’ dollar lending has ballooned to $12 trillion from $10 trillion, the International Monetary Fund estimates. "

Yup ppl pull the trigger NOW on your best bet. You will be rich beyond your wildest dreams. It’s not like China is a manufacturer nation and the US is a service/consumer nation. After weeks/months of the US being weaned off consumerism and told to refrain from the service industry... the U.S. won’t go back to spending like banshees, throwing money around like confetti and living the flaunty lifestyle and priming the pump.

It’s over ppl. It was a massive bubble and it met the most giant ‘cocking-fucking pin’ in history. You think you are hard enuff to call this. You’re not... because u asking for investment advice on this polarized, basement-dweller, triggered-troll forum. Stop with the stupid political 1-up man-ship. Grow up. This forum has become a fucking travesty. Congratulations! YOU made it that way. I hope your pension/401K goes to zero. Your bickering, blue/red focus on stupid shit and not watching the big picture is what is wrong with this country. Not Trump... not Obama.

Fuck me Patrick close this piece of shit down. Have you no honour?