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Interesting thread title - that was used about three years ago, maybe a bit less from the commenter from Lafayette, CA.
Iwog was early and I might be too.
Rash... I know.
Otherwise, hold onto those DRIPs (& no, not GE or Heinz) because that 4% dividend will spike to 8-10%, which will nearly double one's equity holdings during the downturn.
Heraclitusstudent saysIwog was early and I might be too.
Of course you’re correct that such things are cyclical. And that timing is everything.
I missed the real estate bottom by a couple years because I was thinking pure economics. That particular person actually set me straight just in time to make some money in the market.
Just straight cash?
CBOEtrader saysJust straight cash?
Long treasuries and tax free municipal. Waiting for yields to bounce back a bit.
You might be right
Or you might be wrong and miss out on 15% gain this year lol
Careful there homie. Treasuries fall in value as rates rise.
When the Duck said cash, it meant bonds
0ba4 saysWhen the Duck said cash, it meant bonds
Not just bondz. CA TAX-FREE MUNI Bond FUNDZ! WITH LEVERAGE! Who can forget NAC? How soon they forget.
In all fairness, I believe he used NAC in the trusts he managed for generating cash.
Appendix A: In 7 out of 9 past times this indicator fell to 0, recession ensued.
10yr treasury rate will probably fall to low 1% in case of recession.
You are right, there is a risk. But remember: no one is paid not to take risks.
Overstaying the rally is a real risk too that becomes larger as the market climbs.
Even if there is a bounce back, it will likely not be for too long until the recession actually comes. So I lose a bit of upside: I say it becomes picking up pennies in front of the steamroller.
There just comes a time when you need to roll your dice.
Iwog did it. Turns out too early.
I do it now. We'll see.
talk about playing w fire, wow
CASH! is wonderful but by the end, the only currency anyone will care about will be belt-fed ammo and YAM!s.
The understated engine of this cycle has been the recovery of housing, driving a stock market obsessed with tech. Housing prices are now slowing. That fuel is spent.
Trees do not grow to the sky.
Trump's tax cut is spent too. Sugar high.
This situation is nearly unfixable, so when the house of cards comes down it will blow out spectacularly.
Appendix A: In 7 out of 9 past times this indicator fell to 0, recession ensued.
I dislike "technical analysis" but this is one chart is fucking ugly:
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I think the best we can hope at this point is 1 year of slow growth and a volatile market before some kind of recession.