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Tesla as an Investment

By Patrick following x   2018 Dec 22, 8:42pm 10,076 views   318 comments   watch   nsfw   quote     share    


What do people think about Tesla (TSLA)?

It's over $300, with a loss of $10/share, but revenue just keeps going up. Hard to figure out what a fair price is since it doesn't make money yet.

How would you come up with a fair price per share?

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279   socal2   ignore (0)   2019 Mar 7, 2:07pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

It's funny reading all the Musk haters. If Tesla were to go bankrupt today, Musk already accomplished more in the auto industry than most of his peers. Let alone us internet armchair warriors. Tesla is setting the bar on the future of the auto industry. Not to mention the miracles Musk has achieved with SpaceX sending fucking rockets up into space cheaper and better than NASA, Russia and China.

If Musk was your standard Silicon Valley SJW - I can see why some in the zerohedge orbit would be all bent out of shape. But Musk has largely stayed out of goofy liberal identify politics and truly appears to be a hard worker unlike the majority of Silicon Valley billionaires living off past achievements.
280   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Mar 7, 3:38pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

personal
281   MrMagic   ignore (11)   2019 Mar 7, 3:42pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

kt1652 says
only minor point, no car under $100k can outperform any tesla's acceleration.


I'm sure that acceleration is amazing while sitting in bumper to bumper traffic on the 405, right?

kt1652 says
Name one ICE that upgrades w/ new function over the air.


Yes, automatic upgrades are terrific. Ask any Windows user how well that's worked. At least when your computer crashes from a software glitch, it's just sitting on your desk. When your Tesla crashes due to a software glitch, you're incinerated...

How's that?
282   MrMagic   ignore (11)   2019 Mar 7, 3:50pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

socal2 says
If Tesla were to go bankrupt today,


....you'd have a $50K paperweight sitting in your driveway.

socal2 says
Tesla is setting the bar on the future of the auto industry.


I'm sure the dead people who died from Autopilot would agree with you.

socal2 says
Not to mention the miracles Musk has achieved with SpaceX sending fucking rockets up into space cheaper and better than NASA, Russia and China.


Yes, YOUR tax dollars at work. How much stock did Elon give you in SpaceX, since you paid for those rockets with your tax dollars.

socal2 says
But Musk has largely stayed out of goofy liberal identify politics


That's because he's so screwed up in the head already, he doesn't need any outside influence. Have you looked at the stock and SEC complaints recently?

socal2 says
and truly appears to be a hard worker unlike the majority of Silicon Valley billionaires living off past achievements.


If he's such a great businessman, why did he just recently re-mortgage 5 of his houses for over 50 MILLION to gain liquidity to finance operations?

Hmmmmmm.....????

283   anonymous   ignore (null)   2019 Mar 7, 5:41pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Tesla Reaches China Bank-Loan Agreement for Gigafactory

Tesla Inc. secured as much as $521 million in loans from Chinese banks to build a vehicle and battery factory in the country, putting the carmaker a step closer to producing Model 3 sedans at its first overseas plant.

The loans from China Construction Bank Corp., Agricultural Bank of China Ltd., Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co. mature in March 2020, according to a regulatory filing. Tesla also amended a separate asset-backed credit agreement, increasing how much it can borrow by as much as $700 million.

Tesla rose as much as 2.3 percent after the close of regular trading. The shares were up 0.9 percent as of 5:05 p.m. Thursday in New York.

Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk estimated in January that Tesla will need roughly $500 million to get the plant built and production ramped up to 3,000 Model 3s a week. The total cost will be higher, and the company had said it planned to tap local banks for a majority of the funding.

The fresh borrowing follows Tesla’s largest-ever debt payment last week. Settling the $920 million convertible bond that matured March 1 taxed the company’s balance sheet, which had about $3.7 billion in cash and equivalents at year-end.

After years of negotiations with Chinese authorities to become the first foreign automaker to wholly own a manufacturing facility in the country, Tesla broke ground on the outskirts of Shanghai on Jan. 7. Musk has said the company plans to start battery and Model 3 production at the factory by the end of the year.

Tesla can now do so by borrowing at favorable rates. The yuan-denominated loans accrue interest at a rate equal to 90 percent of the one-year rate published by the People’s Bank of China. For dollar-denominated loans, the rate is 1 percent more than Libor.

Beginning local production in China is key for Tesla to reduce the costs of its cars in what is the world’s largest market for electric vehicles. Battery-powered autos have been a rare bright spot amid the broader market’s slowdown. Local manufacturing also will help the company sidestep any re-escalation of trade tensions between the U.S. and China.

In its filing, Tesla said it amended and restated its asset-backed loan credit agreement to increase the total lender commitments by $500 million to about $2.4 billion. The pact also permits the company to obtain up to $200 million in additional commitments, and extend the term of most of the total commitments to 2023.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-07/tesla-is-said-to-reach-china-bank-loan-agreement-for-gigafactory?srnd=premium
284   theoakman   ignore (0)   2019 Mar 7, 8:09pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

kt1652 says
theoakman says
Face it...this car was a prototype that they touted as a car ready for market. They rushed it to the market and things like this are what happens when you do that.
What car are you talking about? X, S, or 3?
If 3 than, data says it is the best selling luxury car of 2018.
Back your opinion or credentials. You can't be an authority on everything. lol
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/08/teslas-model-3-was-2018s-best-selling-luxury-car-in-us.html
TSLA is a volatile stock, carrying too excessive risk as my core holdings.
I may trade it's channel patterns, but if held for long term, daily fluct is noise.
Tesla has a reputation of reaching it's goals, even if late.
If

Haha, did you just claim not meeting deadlines is still meeting the goal? By your measure, no company has ever missed it's goals as long as they are fashionably late.
285   theoakman   ignore (0)   2019 Mar 7, 8:10pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

MrMagic says
only minor point, no car under $100k can outperform any tesla's acceleration.


I took an 88 mustang, ran a turbo in it and boosted the pressure to 40 psi. Dyno'd at 750 hp. Easily faster. And it cost me under 10k.
286   theoakman   ignore (0)   2019 Mar 7, 8:12pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

MrMagic says
kt1652 says
Still trying to rationalize why nearly every EV owner loves his car and tesla has the highest loyalty of any brand, even beating Beemers, Audi's, Lexus?


Isn't that the same thing all the Apple fanboys said when they paid DOUBLE for their first iPod or iPad?



I bought my first ipod when they came out. I believe it was $400. I figured I would be using it for a goo 4 to 5 years. It lasted 4 weeks before it stopped working. Worst purchase I ever made.
287   Rin   ignore (3)   2019 Mar 7, 9:15pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

kt1652 says
"you" = anecdotal. If Rin can't bother with route planning or whatever EV inconveniences because his life is on the lower left quadrant of driving behavior,


Actually, in my case, I'd just expense a flight to Philly, a mere ~$400, even at the ticket counter at Boston's Logan without the 1-2 weeks of planning ahead to get a $200 savings. Once you factor in the taxi-ing on the ground, the flight time is only 40 mins. And I get livery service anywhere I want with my firm. I don't need to drive at all.

kt1652 says
there is an alter-Rin who drives 200 miles a day in predominately warm climate region


Likewise, that alt-Rin would fly between San Diego, LA, Vegas, & Phoenix and get a rental in any of those towns. And yes, if that rental happens to be an EV then sure, it would make for a fun joyride, provided that the hotel had a charging station.

Basically, what Rin is ... is a businessman. He's too much of a jet-setter to care for the minutiae of the latest car fads. He's in motion and part of that is not scoping the landscape for charging stations. It's more like seeking the best sushi a/o oyster bar to take a client out for dinner.
288   E-man   ignore (0)   2019 Mar 7, 11:46pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

kt1652 says
@E-man , can't find your post to quote.
Shorts are unethical. They typically spread false rumors, pump down a stock & dump.
You hate, so you short TSLA?
Join your leaders, Soros, Chanos..termites.
Hope you get burned. I can hold forever.


@kt1652,

I don’t know where you read it. You must have gotten the wrong guy. How can you find something that doesn’t exist?

I’m a huge fan of Tesla and an owner of a Model S 75D. Waiting for the reveal of Model Y on 3/14. If I like it, I’ll buy it for my wife. If not, I am getting a Model X 100D or a Model 3 LR. I don’t short Tesla. In fact, I’m waiting for an entry point. I’m thinking $250-$260 range is a great entry point.
289   CBOEtrader   ignore (5)   2019 Mar 8, 12:08am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

kt1652 says
Shorts are unethical. They typically spread false rumors, pump down a stock & dump.


Shorts [sic] are unethical. Haha, smh
290   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Mar 8, 1:07am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

E-man, I found your post. You said:
"It's ironic to see our own folks wanting our own American company to fail especially the loser short sellers on seeking alpha. They couldn't invent or create anything positive to contribute to the society. They want to benefit based on someone else's failure. What a bunch of losers."

That's what I was referencing. I agree with you!
(There is some strangeness wrt searching your post history...just saying.)
291   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Mar 8, 1:15am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

CBOEtrader says
kt1652 says
Shorts are unethical. They typically spread false rumors, pump down a stock & dump.


Shorts [sic] are unethical. Haha, smh

Grammar nazi? Shorts for short seller.
Did you spend your career cramming words in Excel boxes?
Did you ever dictate quick replies via android while driving home?
292   CBOEtrader   ignore (5)   2019 Mar 8, 6:22am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

kt1652 says
Grammar nazi? Shorts for short seller.


Right over your precious little head.

I'm laughing at you classifying shorts [sic] as unethical.

But yes, the sic is there to point out the ambiguous use of made-up terms.

Both suggest you are far outside your lane, perhaps you should refrain in judging risk takers as unethical.
293   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Mar 8, 10:13am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Peloton said it has already signed truck platooning deals with a number of fleets in North America. Commercial deployment of the Peloton platooning system is expected to occur by the end of this year.

Truck platooning lowers fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. Given that trucks can drive closer together, the air-drag friction is reduced significantly. ... Truck platooning helps to improve safety. The technology for platooning with trucks of the same brand (so-called ‘mono-brand platooning’) is already available. By 2023, it should be possible to drive across Europe on motorways crossing national borders with multi-brand platoons., without needing any specific exemptions. – ACEA European Automotive Manufacturers Association.
All the smart states have enabled legislation for the technology.
https://enterpriseiotinsights.com/20180821/connected-cars-2/nine-us-states-already-approved-full-truck-platooning-study
The U.S. Army plans to deploy dozens of autonomous trucks next year, far ahead of its original time frame.
The military is pushing ahead with autonomous vehicle development at the same time the civilian trucking industry is adopting similar technology. Commercial truck firms, for example, are testing a different type of platooning where digitally tethered trucks of three or more follow each other closely, typically 40 feet. Digital communications and automatic emergency braking reduce wind drag and improve fuel efficiency.
https://www.trucks.com/2018/09/26/us-army-deploying-autonomous-trucks/


294   MrMagic   ignore (11)   2019 Mar 18, 8:20pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Oh my, not again...

"A Modified Ponzi Scheme": 78% Of Tesla Operating Cash Flow Has Come From Customer Deposits.

An impressive, 46-page Value Investor Club write-up on Tesla was published by user jcoviedo on Monday and promptly leaked thereafter, which - not surprisingly - pitched a short thesis which sees the stock price first dropping to Musk's margin call level of roughly $200/share, after which a "massive reset" as core investors dump, sends it below $50 share.

There was one striking observation that goes to the heart of Tesla's biggest weakness: its liquidity, and specifically that Tesla is nothing more than a deposit-churning Ponzi scheme, that only keeps its light on thanks to gullible buyers who front the cost of production of the next model, and the next, and so on. Here is the passage in question:

Tesla is in effect a modified Ponzi scheme. Throughout its history, the company has financed its operations by announcing a new product (originally the roadster, then the Model S, the Model X, the Model 3, the Semi, the roadster 2, and now the Model Y as well as the vaporware full self driving package) and then taking deposits for the product before it has ever designed a production system for the product.

The company then spends the deposits on operating expenses and the capital expenses to manufacture the original product. When the company is close to running out of funds, the company announces a new product and takes deposits on it in order to finish the production of the first product. Since 2008, 78% of TSLA's cash flow from operations has come from customer deposits!

While it is debatable whether this practice is legal or not, there it one thing it clearly isn't, especially in the long run: Sustainable.

And Musk know it. As the report's author points out, "unlike a bank, Tesla does not segregate customer deposits and in reality customer depositors are just unsecured creditors of the company.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-18/modified-ponzi-scheme-2008-78-tesla-operating-cash-flow-has-come-customer-deposits

Oh, and for those of you looking to plink down a deposit on a Model Y (just a reskinned Model 3), the $2500 is NOT a deposit, it just holds a place in line.

Good luck with that.
295   AD   ignore (0)   2019 Mar 18, 8:33pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Yes Patrick, Tesla is down to about $269 and not far from its 52 week low of $244.

GuruFocus.com has rated it steady with 4 out of 10 for financial strength, and has increased its profitability score to 6 out of 10.

Tesla Model 3 may save the company.
296   kt1652   ignore (1)   2019 Apr 1, 9:50am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Nice bounce, a few nuances (see below) still keeping me on the fence with TSLA.
If it shoot past 295 strong, it'll get my attention.
bought XLK instead, been good.
===
"Elon Musk and the SEC face off in a New York courtroom to determine whether he is in contempt of court.
Legal experts' estimates range from saying that a contempt finding could lead to:
- fine in excess of $20 million
- further Twitter restrictions
- removal from the board or as CEO

On the other hand, some good news.

"Elon Musk’s warm reception in China is a wake-up call to Tesla’s skeptics"

https://www.jato.com/tesla-model-3-becomes-europes-best-selling-pure-electric-vehicle-in-europe/
297   SunnyvaleCA   ignore (0)   2019 Apr 1, 11:52am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

kt1652 says
"Elon Musk’s warm reception in China is a wake-up call to Tesla’s skeptics"

Chinese companies will be making cheap Tesla clones within months! I smell "technology transfer."
298   zzyzzx   ignore (1)   2019 Apr 4, 12:06pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

$269.69/share -$22.12 (-7.58%)

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/tesla-falls-reporting-worst-sales-172712125.html

Tesla falls after reporting their worst sales numbers in history
299   MrMagic   ignore (11)   2019 May 20, 8:17am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Patrick says
What do people think about Tesla (TSLA)?


@patrick... did you buy around the time you made this thread?

Tesla's stock tumbles toward multi-year low after Wedbush slashes price target, again.

Shares of Tesla Inc. TSLA, -5.10% tumbled 5.8% toward a 2 1/2-year low in morning trade Monday, after analyst Dan Ives at Wedbush slashed his price target, citing "major concerns" about the trajectory of the electric car maker's growth prospects.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/teslas-stock-sinks-toward-multi-year-low-after-wedbush-slashed-price-target-again-2019-05-20




EJECT.... EJECT..... EJECT....
300   mell   ignore (2)   2019 May 20, 8:44am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I continue to meet steadfast believers who keep buying more unless they're broke. I have never liked Teslas story but it's too early to write them off - however it's clearly not looking good. They need to be careful that no big investor pulls the plug, it's propped up mainly by big money, the retail fans are a small fraction.
301   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (0)   2019 May 20, 10:18am   ↑ like (4)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I am interested in stocks of companies that solve problems.

Over paying for a Status Symbol is not solving a problem.
302   theoakman   ignore (0)   2019 May 20, 10:33am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

longs are unethical, they typically spread false rumors and endless optimism to pump a stock up and sell
303   Booger   ignore (3)   2019 May 22, 4:41am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

$199.31/sh -5.77 (-2.81%)
Pre-Market: 7:38AM EDT

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/morgan-stanley-cuts-worst-case-213318555.html

Morgan Stanley cuts worst-case price for Tesla to $10
304   zzyzzx   ignore (1)   2019 May 31, 11:28am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Down to $185.61 per share!
305   E-man   ignore (0)   2019 May 31, 4:01pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Tesla is a status symbol? 😂😂😂

If Tesla is a status symbol, what about MBZ, BMW, Porsche, Lexus, Acura, Jaguar, Cadillac, etc...?

Haters are going to hate.
306   E-man   ignore (0)   2019 May 31, 4:04pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

zzyzzx says
Down to $185.61 per share!


It broke its $250 support. Looks like the next support is around $150-$160/share. We’ll have to wait and see.

I’m not so much of a stock guy. I’ll stick with real estate. Just got a nice payday today.
307   APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch   ignore (41)   2019 May 31, 4:09pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

It's a penny stock at best.
308   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (0)   2019 May 31, 4:49pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

E-man says
If Tesla is a status symbol, what about MBZ, BMW, Porsche, Lexus, Acura, Jaguar, Cadillac, etc...?

You are so right, E-man. But Lexus stock is not traded. Toyota stock is, and for decades they solved the problem of low quality /poor value for American consumers.
I hope you enjoy your Tesla, E-man. Not the same thing as investing in the stock, though.
309   HEYYOU   ignore (31)   2019 May 31, 5:51pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

With everyone getting great tax breaks from Trump,you guys should buyback your company stock!

FREEDOM!
The right to buy paper. Some call it investing & they never speak of their loses.
What's the brightest red ink?
The results of a forensic accounting of their investment strategy would be interesting.
Always wonder how much debt these brilliants carry that they can't pay off but are willing to gamble.

How about someone that knew WTF he was doing & not just another follower?

"We couldn’t care less about what is forecast or what the market says we ought to do. If we listened very seriously to that sort of stuff, we never would have gone into small-town discounting in the first place." -
Sam Walton
310   E-man   ignore (0)   2019 Jun 1, 12:18am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

B.A.C.A.H. says
E-man says
If Tesla is a status symbol, what about MBZ, BMW, Porsche, Lexus, Acura, Jaguar, Cadillac, etc...?

You are so right, E-man. But Lexus stock is not traded. Toyota stock is, and for decades they solved the problem of low quality /poor value for American consumers.
I hope you enjoy your Tesla, E-man. Not the same thing as investing in the stock, though.


While all ICE companies said making electric cars were not feasible. Guess who solved that puzzle? Now, look at which companies are chasing Tesla? Porsche, MBZ, BMW, Volvo, Ford, GM, etc...

Haters are going to hate. Deniers are going to deny. I love my Tesla. No reason to deny it. It always puts a smile on my face every time I drive it. When I come back from a vacation, the first thing I do is to take my Tesla out for a spin. That’s how fun to drive it. How much does that worth?
311   BayArea   ignore (1)   2019 Jun 1, 7:11am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Tesla’s best days are ahead of it.

I live and work in the silicon valley. The car is adored by the masses.

With time the issues will be resolved and the stock price will hit all time highs.
312   mell   ignore (2)   2019 Jun 1, 10:04am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

BayArea says
Tesla’s best days are ahead of it.

I live and work in the silicon valley. The car is adored by the masses.

With time the issues will be resolved and the stock price will hit all time highs.


Seriously doubt that. It's a good car and there's no reason to hate it but it won't be able to make a profit before competition closes in. Maybe the batteries and gigfactories and other business such as patents etc. can save it but the car alone likely won't.
313   mell   ignore (2)   2019 Jun 1, 10:05am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

But if you gamble on the long term recovery, what would be a good entry point?
314   FortWayneIndiana   ignore (4)   2019 Jun 1, 12:49pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Any point is fine, you can’t time markets.

mell says
But if you gamble on the long term recovery, what would be a good entry point?
315   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (0)   2019 Jun 1, 6:04pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

E-man says
Haters are going to hate. Deniers are going to deny. I love my Tesla. No reason to deny it. It always puts a smile on my face every time I drive it. When I come back from a vacation, the first thing I do is to take my Tesla out for a spin. That’s how fun to drive it. How much does that worth?


Dude, it's not all about you.

Patrick's original question, was not if you think your Tesla is a great car.

His question was, is it a good stock in invest in? Since he posed that question, the stock has dropped considerably.

Just because some of us don't think TSLA is a good stock to invest in, does not mean that we are, as you put it, "haters". As a lifelong resident of the Bay Area, I hope Tesla thrives, because of the huge payroll here. Many in my community work in that factory, some in my family acquainted with Tesla employees. I don't know any personally, but I have met one at the gym. But, I do know folks who work for Tesla suppliers. You see, they don't just support families of their direct employees. There's also a legion of folks here who work for suppliers. I'm even related to some of those.

We are not "jealous" of your Status Symbol, and we are not Haters. We are grateful for folks like you for all you do for the local economy.

But, Patrick's question was about the stock as an investment. Even after it dropped so much since he posed that question, it is even now still Priced For Perfection, for mass sales to a mass market that does not exit. Because, the mass market cannot afford for such expensive Status Symbols. A latte, perhaps. Maybe even a Michael Kors handbag or North Face jacket. But not a Tesla car.
316   komputodo   ignore (1)   2019 Jun 1, 6:26pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

about the same as I think about sodastream..
317   Patrick   ignore (1)   2019 Jun 1, 6:28pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

komputodo says
about the same as I think about sodastream..


I sure hope so. I did great with sodastream.
318   B.A.C.A.H.   ignore (0)   2019 Jun 1, 6:37pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

BayArea says
Tesla’s best days are ahead of it.

I live and work in the silicon valley. The car is adored by the masses.

With time the issues will be resolved and the stock price will hit all time highs.



Bitcoin and Crypto-currency
by BayArea on 5 Nov 2017 305 comments, latest 10 hours ago

BayArea says
What do you all think about it from an investment point of view today? I have some buddies in the finance world who are quite bullish on it and claim we are just scratching the surface. Judging by the recent performance, they may be right.

For people who are investing in Bitcoin, what are you using to invest and what recommendations do you have for a new investor?

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