patrick.net

Patrick says

One reason I'm interested in Tesla is because I'm a firm believer that solar will replace oil soon, being limited only by battery technology. And Tesla makes more money from batteries than from cars.

Any other companies positioned to efficiently store solar power?

Nothing beats the energy density and utility of the liquid hydrocarbon fuels.

That's to say nothing of their utility as feedstock for all manner of manufactured stuff.

I reckon, even at $500 per barrel for crude oil, for what you pay for what it can do for you, (ignoring the Climate Change consequences), the liquid hydrocarbon fuels are The Bargain of the Millenia. Try going on some glamorous travel to hip destination in Europe or Cambodia or whatever on a battery powered aircraft.

Lots of hydrocarbon used to extrace and process the materials used in making those batteries.

Hydrocarbon is gonna be around for a long time. Solar and battery storage of it will have a place too.

I know some folks who made mid-life career transitions to different aspects of solar. One of them is a neighbor who has an incarceration record, busy working as an installer on Bay Area Hipsters' roofs. That could be the best way to "invest" in solar: invest in making a career of it.

Hircus says

One thing I do worry is that China will steal their battery tech, and they will lose a major competitive advantage when that happens.

There needs to be a communication made that if China steals the battery IP, it's going to mean a 100% tariff on all Chinese Vehicles and anything battery powered, including smartphones.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Hircus says

One thing I do worry is that China will steal their battery tech, and they will lose a major competitive advantage when that happens.

There needs to be a communication made that if China steals the battery IP, it's going to mean a 100% tariff on all Chinese Vehicles and anything battery powered, including smartphones.

Wait a sec, didn't Elon declare that all Tesla IP is free to use by anyone?

1. Definition of investment -> A projection of positive cash flow in the future with good confidence, trading at a reasonable price with safety margin.
2. I do NOT think anybody will call Telsla an “investment” based on above definition.
3. If you ask Warren Buffet about “investment” his will pull out a list of 3000 car companies in the 1930s and tell you all have died but 3. The remaining 3 makes little money and is at the brink of bankrupcy all the time. Conclusion, car business is a BAD business. Chewing gum and See’s candy are good business. Would electrical car be a good business? It is still a car.
4. A good product does NOT mean a good business.
5. Telsla cars can be cool, but please look at Porsche and Audi’s 2019 Electrical cars. I am sure you don’t want to drive Telsla any more.
6. So if know you are speculating about the electrical car industry, there are competitors coming and make it profitless because Elon can NOT defend the competition.
7. If you think you are speculating on Tesla being cool and sexier than GM’s Volt, understand that sexy E cars are coming to blow Telsla off the road.

Rin says

I suppose, unlike DeLorean, Musk won't get taken down by a shady entrapment scheme

You don't have to entrap someone that you already have a video of doing drugs.

Booger saysBooger says

someone that you already have a video of doing drugs.

It's almost like he's running a Francisco d'Anconia "Careless Playboy" act. Act conspicuously crazy while suckers invest, give 'em the "Well what did you expect?" when the shell game all crashes down.

Booger says

You don't have to entrap someone that you already have a video of doing drugs.

Would it be the same if they showed him having a few beers?

joshuatrio says

It's only a matter of time before this technology gets cheaper and it becomes even more common.

Sure, but those cheaper electric cars won't be Tesla's.

joshuatrio says

It's only a matter of time before this technology gets cheaper and it becomes even more common.

Sure, but those cheaper electric cars won't be Tesla's.

Patrick says

Would it be the same if they showed him having a few beers?

No.

E-man says

You can test drive my Model S anytime. Let me forewarn that after driving a Tesla, you won’t want to buy an ICE car ever again except maybe the supercars.

Absolutely agree.

gsr says

E-man says

You can test drive my Model S anytime. Let me forewarn that after driving a Tesla, you won’t want to buy an ICE car ever again except maybe the supercars.

Absolutely agree.

I've driven a Tesla. I would have to say it's nothing impressive. Interior was cheap, like Honda Civic. The giant tablet in the middle was some strange clunky mess, felt like a cheap Android tablet. Motor sure feels strong, it's electric so it doesn't spool up or anything, its like a giant stepper motor.

Put an electric motor into a civic you basically get a Tesla. I dont got solar panels, so electricity costs would kill me if I had Tesla as a daily driver. It's a car for very well off people financially, that's it. And not a good one at that.

Booger says

Patrick says

Would it be the same if they showed him having a few beers?

No.

Why not?

FortWayneIndiana says

Put an electric motor into a civic you basically get a Tesla. I dont got solar panels, so electricity costs would kill me if I had Tesla as a daily driver. It's a car for very well off people financially, that's it. And not a good one at that.

Clearly you never drove one, and don't know the cost of electricity at all. I use everyday. Do your own research on cost.

FortWayneIndiana says

Put an electric motor into a civic you basically get a Tesla.

No.

gsr says

FortWayneIndiana says

Put an electric motor into a civic you basically get a Tesla. I dont got solar panels, so electricity costs would kill me if I had Tesla as a daily driver. It's a car for very well off people financially, that's it. And not a good one at that.

Clearly you never drove one, and don't know the cost of electricity at all. I use everyday. Do your own research on cost.

LOL! You called him out. I have had between 30-40 people test-drove my 75D. Some of them were like wow. They asked how come they don’t see Tesla owners drive like that. I said why? To piss off others? We know the power is there whenever we need it. No need to show it off and give Tesla owners a bad rep.

My neighbor ended up buying one. After a few months of owning it, she said there’s no other car like a Tesla. Her previous car was a 2011 Lexus ES350.

Wife’s siblings bought two Model 3 LR (one each) using my account to cut in-line.

I did a YoY cost analysis a couple months ago. 14,000 miles driven, YoY increase in electricity usage was 3,600 kWh. YoY delta in electricity bill was $188. Got 85 kWh from Chargepoint which costed me $23. Total cost was $211. I was averaging 290 wH/mi. Looks like I got around 1,200-1,400 kWh of free charge from superchargers.

My previous car was a 2003 MBZ E500, which averaged around 18 mpg. At $4/gal, it would have costed me $3,111 in gas. The delta in fuel consumption was around $2,900/year, and I haven’t factored in the time savings from the diamond lane.

We already see ourselves buying at least 2 more Tesla’s. It’s likely going be a Model Y and a Roadster but it’s too early to say at the moment.

gsr says

FortWayneIndiana says

Put an electric motor into a civic you basically get a Tesla. I dont got solar panels, so electricity costs would kill me if I had Tesla as a daily driver. It's a car for very well off people financially, that's it. And not a good one at that.

Clearly you never drove one, and don't know the cost of electricity at all. I use everyday. Do your own research on cost.

It would blow a hole in my budget with electricity costs. I'd need an expensive charger, or you are charging it all night to not go very far. You need a lot of electricity to drive it. If you like it, good for you. I test drove it, did not like it at all. I still think it's just a civic with an electric motor at the end, just a bit more horsepower and a different logo. Super expensive.

FortWayneIndiana says

I still think it's just a civic with an electric motor at the end, just a bit more horsepower and a different logo

Lol just a 'bit' more horsepower. Top of the line Civic type R has 306 hp and 295 lb/ft torque. Tesla P100D has 600 hp and 950 lb/ft. Just a bit.

Actually, the Porsche all electric is only going to cost $85K, with 600 HP & a brief re-charge window like some 15 mins per 80% capacity. And since we're talking about luxury cars, not ones which regular working ppl need to get, from point A to B, I don't see Tesla outlasting the established brands for non-essentials i.e. luxury market.

And this is where I draw the DeLorean comparison because although I wasn't born at the time, when John DeLorean unveiled his first beauties, they looked space-aged, aerodynamic, and all that jazz, inspiring the NASA loving generation, just slightly older than me. In the end, however, the "other" design work of Giugiaro, aside from the DeLorean, like the Maserati, Lamborghini, and Ferrari, lasted the test of time.

Unless Musk can get into the $30K-$35K market space and get ppl to want to purchase a Tesla over let's say a Nissan Maxima then he's in the world where the other luxury brands will have his dinner, since they missed the brunch window.

Evan F. says

FortWayneIndiana says

I still think it's just a civic with an electric motor at the end, just a bit more horsepower and a different logo

Lol just a 'bit' more horsepower. Top of the line Civic type R has 306 hp and 295 lb/ft torque. Tesla P100D has 600 hp and 950 lb/ft. Just a bit.

You can like your Tesla all you want, more power to you. I know there are people who like em. But I don't, I tried, didn't love it. They are not practical, cheaply made interior, expensive as hell, need a special charge station to charge, and completely unproven. They are cute if you never get out of the Bay Area or few parts of California. If you got to drive anywhere, good luck, there are no stations, you'll be hitching a ride. It's a very expensive electric motor toy for those with money burning their pockets.

FortWayneIndiana says

They are cute if you never get out of the Bay Area or few parts of California. If you got to drive anywhere, good luck, there are no stations, you'll be hitching a ride. It's a very expensive electric motor toy for those with money burning their pockets.

I think you said it right there ... California.

I live in New England and for the most part, the Tesla is considered a toy for those with money to burn.

Even in finance, the ppl with cash to burn tend to prefer the Porsches, Ferraris, etc, over a Tesla because for them, money doesn't matter. They can afford the petrol bill, whether it's $1.5 or $5 per gallon.

A Chevy Volt is really a much more practical car when compared to a Tesla.

Rin says

Actually, the Porsche all electric is only going to cost $85K, with 600 HP & a brief re-charge window like some 15 mins per 80% capacity.

Come on, this is standard marketing drivel that every auto maker vomits out to hype them up. Is it true? Maybe. The price point will likely be accurate, but to get the fast charging option and that horsepower rating you're undoubtedly going to have to pay a lot more than $85k.

I've seen pics of the Mission E/Taycan/whatever and it looks great, and honestly, the more players in the electric space, the better. Elon Musk would undoubtedly say the same thing. But it's a little disingenuous to suggest that a Model S is a toy and not say the same about a comparably priced Porsche, especially considering the S can squeeze in 7 seats where the Taycan is a 2+2.

Rin says

And this is where I draw the DeLorean comparison because although I wasn't born at the time, when John DeLorean unveiled his first beauties, they looked space-aged, aerodynamic, and all that jazz, inspiring the NASA loving generation, just slightly older than me

Just one more rebuttal of the Delorean comparison: Delorean shipped about 9000 DMC-12's in total. Tesla has shipped well north of 300,000 units and their sales figures are still accelerating. And I would argue that Tesla's design is in some ways better than the Delorean... The Teslas have simple, smooth lines. They don't look jaw dropping but they sure look nice and clean. The DMC is iconic, but boxy and awkward.

FortWayneIndiana says

need a special charge station to charge, and completely unproven. They are cute if you never get out of the Bay Area or few parts of California. If you got to drive anywhere, good luck, there are no stations

Nope, your can use charge point, supercharger, etc. As of this month there are 20,000 charging stations in the US. Sure, there are more gas stations, but you're likely within range of a charging station anywhere in the US. Just because you think there are no stations doesn't mean there aren't. You're just not looking for them because you don't need to use them.

Evan F. says

undoubtedly going to have to pay a lot more than $85k.

Money is not a problem for ppl in finance. I can easily pay $5 per gallon and it wouldn't hurt my bottom line. If you recall from my Tesla ownership thread below, I have livery service, I don't even need a car. When a person sees someone pull up in a limo, they know he's important.

http://patrick.net/post/1318339/2018-08-20-i-have-a-friend-who-drives-a-tesla-i-say-so-what

Now, talk to those Nissan Maxima owners, between Boston & DC, who have a regular job, to invest in a Tesla instead of keeping their Maximas. If you can win over that market then yes, Tesla's got a future!

In fact, I'll officially apologize once you win over that demographic in the Boston-DC corridor, the Midwest, and the Texas Triangle.

Evan F. says

Just one more rebuttal of the Delorean comparison: Delorean shipped about 9000 DMC-12's in total. Tesla has shipped well north of 300,000 units and their sales figures are still accelerating. And I would argue that Tesla's design is in some ways better than the Delorean... The Teslas have simple, smooth lines. They don't look jaw dropping but they sure look nice and clean. The DMC is iconic, but boxy and awkward.

1970s vs today, boxy was "in" back then. Today, it's all about smooth lines.

And as for today, Tesla has the 'net, as oppose to word of mouth. The only reason why I know of any Tesla owners in the New England region is because they're Musk fans and bought into the Silicon Valley story. The other luxury sports car types stick to their Porches and Ferraris. And thus, Tesla owners have that label ... "I'm a Silicon Valley hip executive, not a boring New Englander"

None of them ever bother me about it because I only show up in a limo. In their eyes, I'm old money but cloaked by my recent success.

You guys are so much into status symbol while it’s more of a practicality for me. I am not into status symbol, but more about enjoying life while I can afford it and still have some youth. I don’t want to be an old guy in his 60’s and 70’s driving a sports car.

I’ve always wanted a Corvette. My wife shot it down due to it being a 2-door car and we have a young child. Instead of writing a $60k check for a Corvette, I wrote a $90k check for a Tesla with a Corvette like performance with 4 doors.

So far, I’ve been extremely happy with the car while I’m saving money on gas. I also get to give family and friends, who are into saving the planet and driving priuses, a hard time for driving an ICE car. ???

E-man says

Tesla with a Corvette like performance

Ummm, no. Except for maybe a short straight-line run.

PS. I own TSLA stock.

E-man says

Instead of writing a $60k check for a Corvette, I wrote a $90k check for a Tesla with a Corvette like performance with 4 doors.

So far, I’ve been extremely happy with the car while I’m saving money on gas.

Hmmmm..

$30k buys a hell of a lot of gas. You didn't "save" anything. You were taken by a "used car" salesman.

E-man says

I am not into status symbol,

Really, what's this?

E-man says

I also get to give family and friends, who are into saving the planet and driving priuses, a hard time for driving an ICE car.

Sure sounds like you're into "status symbols".

MrMagic says

E-man says

So far, I’ve been extremely happy with the car while I’m saving money on gas.

Hmmmm..

$30k buys a hell of a lot of gas. You didn't "save" anything. You were taken by a "used car" salesman.

I think the emphasis here is the extreme happiness.

E-man says

I don’t want to be an old guy in his 60’s and 70’s driving a sports car.

Looped in with the above.

====

From my Tesla thread and status symbols ...

http://patrick.net/post/1318339/2018-08-20-i-have-a-friend-who-drives-a-tesla-i-say-so-what

-----
Introduction: "As you know, I'm semi-retired from hedge fund work. I now consult back to my old firm, in return for free livery & lodging, wherever I go, advocating for my firm.

In the past few years, I have a friend with a wife and kids, and he bought himself a Tesla. And realize, this guy doesn't have enough money saved for his kids' college a/o medical/grad school educations. In other words, he's pulled from his potential eggs nest, to enjoy himself today.

Ok, the car makes no noise on the road and looks sporty ... but so what?

In contrast, I'm being driven around, in a back of a limo, reading/studying or watching some videos. I get to relax and let someone else take me around, picking up specialty foods from all different shops across New England, while my friend who's "trendy", gets to be like everyone else, stuck in traffic, getting from point A to point B.

Seriously, I don't get it."
----

And the conclusion: "I just checked my dividend earnings statement. This year, I came close to clearing $240K in dividend income alone. The amount of actual work needed for that income stream was nearly ~0% of my time, half of which is tax deferred, and I'd used business expenses to offset the other stuff, and I use my consulting earnings to pay the additional taxes.

Plus, I have no cap gain losses as I'd eliminated the high debt blue chips in late August prior to the sell off.

Ok, so what's the purpose of stating the above?

I can easily buy a Tesla or a Porsche or even a Lamborghini, if I really wanted to ... in cash.

And why don't I do that?

Because by re-investing my dividends into blue chips ... in a decade's time, I'll have an income stream of over $400K since blue chips raise dividends, even by a meager amount on a periodic basis, along with the compounding effect.

http://www.dividend-calculator.com/quarterly.php

Now, if I wanted to go for a joyride, I can plunk down the cash for a weekend spin in a luxury sport cars for a grand plus fees.

https://www.gothamdreamcars.com/exotic-car-rental

And really, that's all that I'd want because in reality, I enjoy being driven around by my driver, instead being some gearhead, in love with his cars. Vehicles are for transportation."
-----

Which divided paying stocks do you recommend?

Patrick says

What do people think about Tesla (TSLA)?

It's over $300, with a loss of $10/share, but revenue just keeps going up. Hard to figure out what a fair price is since it doesn't make money yet.

How would you come up with a fair price per share?

Very difficult for anyone to figure this out.
Tesla is both, a high tech company and a car company. If it can keep up the innovation like Apple did, the shares are way undervalued. If Tesla stops innovating fast enough, and other car companies catch up, the stock is way overpriced. Impossible to predict.
I do know, after the buying experience and driving a Tesla, I am in WOW. It's the Star Trek of cars. Tesla will no doubt be a successful company, but the value of its stock price is a whole different animal.

Rin says

A person like Musk could have easily parked money into our firm, earned 20% per year

Even Madoff gave less.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Patrick says

One reason I'm interested in Tesla is because I'm a firm believer that solar will replace oil soon, being limited only by battery technology. And Tesla makes more money from batteries than from cars.

Any other companies positioned to efficiently store solar power?

Nothing beats the energy density and utility of the liquid hydrocarbon fuels.

Who cares about the energy density. If I can drive an electric car for less than 3 cents a mile, why would I even consider anything else?

Strategist says

Rin says

A person like Musk could have easily parked money into our firm, earned 20% per year

Even Madoff gave less.

That's all because of me.

When I first started this firm, my pitch to the senior partners was that instead of hiring a bloated staff of useless dolts, we hire the very best prop trader out there at $1M/yr base with a P/L cut, and automate most of the functions so that we could make payroll every single year regardless of fund performance. Well, it paid off, our man earned 20+%, every single year, without skipping a beat!

In contrast, Bernie & Co sucks!

FYI, that guy retired recently with some $200M.

Strategist says

Very difficult for anyone to figure this out.
Tesla is both, a high tech company and a car company.

I agree, not being able to figure it out myself. There are so many unknowns.

Strategist says

Who cares about the energy density. If I can drive an electric car for less than 3 cents a mile, why would I even consider anything else?

Maybe because you're paying $30K EXTRA for the car. That buys a lot of gas. At $3.00 a gallon, your break-even is 200,000 miles. Anything less, you paid MORE!!

You driving that electric car 200,000 without ever replacing the battery pack? Another $10K for a battery pack at 100,000 miles? Times 2....

Bueller?

Strategist says

B.A.C.A.H. says

Patrick says

One reason I'm interested in Tesla is because I'm a firm believer that solar will replace oil soon, being limited only by battery technology. And Tesla makes more money from batteries than from cars.

Any other companies positioned to efficiently store solar power?

Nothing beats the energy density and utility of the liquid hydrocarbon fuels.

Who cares about the energy density. If I can drive an electric car for less than 3 cents a mile, why would I even consider anything else?

If you look at my YoY delta in electricity usage of 3,600 kWh, the delta in my electricity bill should have been $464 at an average rate of $0.129/kWh. However, it’s only $188. This means I have been paying a premium rate of $23/mo or $276/year with the standard PG&E program. I actually saved money by switching to the EV program. I learned something new after owning an EV.

I got $500 clean vehicle fuel rebate from PG&E in addition to $2,500 from the great state of CA and $7,500 from the IRS. Also got $1k referral discount last year too so $11.5k off the ticker price. ???

E-man says

If you look at my YoY delta in electricity usage of 3,600 kWh, the delta in my electricity bill should have been $464 at an average rate of $0.129/kWh. However, it’s only $188. This means I have been paying a premium rate of $23/mo or $276/year with the standard PG&E program. I actually saved money by switching to the EV program. I learned something new after owning an EV.

That is what I have been telling some people for a long time. Switching to a Time of Use plan available to electric car owners will actually save you money on the electricity you use for normal everyday needs. And then you get a credit of $500 per year from the electric company.

MrMagic says

Strategist says

Who cares about the energy density. If I can drive an electric car for less than 3 cents a mile, why would I even consider anything else?

Maybe because you're paying $30K EXTRA for the car.

You can get a brand new Nissan Leaf for:
MSRP $31,000.
Dealer discount $5,000
Federal tax credit $7,500
Ca rebate check $2,500
Free fuel for 2 years from Nissan.
Annual Utility credit. Last one was $500.
-------
Now do the math. There has been no exaggeration on these figures.
If you have low income, you get a further $2,000 from California.
Free level 2 chargers/installation for low income too.
Some cities/counties have further rebates.

Folks, an electric car IS the lowest priced car in the country. Tesla is a high end luxury car. Don't compare the cost of a Tesla with a basic Civic. It's an apple to orange comparison.

For those who are interested in the Porsche brand, here’s the pricing for their Taycan. Which car do you think will do 0-60 in 3.5 seconds?