patrick.net

CBOEtrader says

What is outside money?

Super PACs and 501(c) "Dark Money". The latter does not disclose donors, can push issues but not specific candidates, and can receive unlimited contributions from anybody.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Multiple people in the thread had to repeat that fact, then he complained that the numbers disproving his conception of reality were being posted by multiple users.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Hey Bob, did you read the instructions?

Did you figure out the numbers for the non presidential races yet? But hey, multiple people posted the same numbers totally irrelevant to the point. I guess they are still working on figuring out 2018 isn't a presidential election year.

dr6B says

bob2356 says

The question still stands. Are the people who spent the last 50 years building the current libertarian republican party dominance going to let D's control the house without spending very dime they can throw at the races?

First, most R's (with exception of Paul who was redistricted out by his colleagues) are not libertarian. Second, I do not believe that "big money" cares which party is in power, so they will support "useful idiots" from either party.

Most R's have made a deal with the devil and if they don't dance to the libertarian tune they will see their funding disappear and face a strong heavily funded primary challenge from some one who will. Big money? Who's big money? Big money on both sides very much cares which party is in power. Only big money on the R side has a long term coordinated plan they have been executing for 40 years.

So the question still stands, after reaching pretty much the pinnacle of their long term goals are the big boys on the right going to roll over and let the D's take back the house? Hint, the koch bro's libertarian network is planning to spend 60% more on republican congressional races in 2018 than 2016 at 400 million. Which is 150 million more than the RNC can come up with. I would say that is a pretty impressive concentration of money and power in one single group that all R politicians have to respect. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/371069-koch-network-to-spend-400-million-during-2018-midterm-election-cycle

bob2356 says

house? Hint, the koch bro's libertarian network is planning to spend 60% more on republican congressional races in 2018 than 2016 at 400 million.

The Koch brothers are pro big business not libertarian. They want cheap labor and unlimited imports and the government to help them oppress the workers as much as possible. They are absolutely the enemy of the MAGA movement. Even more than the Democrats, since they’re slowly being converted, but the Koch people just want domination at any price. There’s no negotiating with someone who wants his boot on your neck.

bob2356 says

Most R's have made a deal with the devil and if they don't dance to the libertarian tune they will see their funding disappear and face a strong heavily funded primary challenge from some one who will.

That is not true, remembering most libertarian of them - Ron Paul. He was redistricted out since they could not whack him in primaries as he was extremely popular in his district despite being a quirky guy. They went as far as making his district semi-blue.

bob2356 says

Big money on both sides very much cares which party is in power. Only big money on the R side has a long term coordinated plan they have been executing for 40 years.

Big money on R side is substantially less than big money on D side. See the picture below. The Masters of Universe actually prefer D's to R's somewhat.

a href="/post/1319527&offset=#comment-1543617">bob2356 says

the big boys on the right going to roll over and let the D's take back the house?

Or Big Boys want D's to take House/Senate and give more money to them.
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zzyzzx says

Scott Adams Predicts ‘Greatest Turnout by Republicans, Maybe Ever’ in Midterms

Partisan people are known to be the worst forecasters.
Motivated reasoning is killing them.

Heraclitusstudent says

Partisan people are known to be the worst forecasters.
Motivated reasoning is killing them.

Adams was right about Trump, unlike most "pundits". We will see if he keeps being right or has lost his predictive abilities. We do not need to get our underwear in a bunch now, time for that is after elections.

Right one time is not a statistic.

Heraclitusstudent says

Right one time is not a statistic.

Correct, but he went against the predominant school of thought.

The money is on the Dems - period. If Reps were more motivated, they would spend - but they aren't. Sure - for big national elections, money may not be as important since there is so much "free" press. In smaller house races, however, it is all about marketing a name - which means money money money. So, I still think +3 in the Senate to the Reps because those races are running on state/national level issues. House- GOP barely holds the house by one or two. Someone stated that CA Rep districts will NOT filp to dem because of taxes/car reg - we will see c- but from the latest polling combined with last minute dem money, it will be hard to Rep to hold any of the 6 seats as toss ups in CA. Modesto area./district is key.

I just see Blue states getting Bluer - and that is where the Dems will pick up.

http://insider.foxnews.com/2018/10/17/rush-limbaugh-if-democrats-take-house-they-will-work-force-president-trump-out.
Limbaugh to Hannity: I Don't Trust Polls, GOP Will Hold House, Increase Senate Majority

Booger says

Limbaugh to Hannity: I Don't Trust Polls, GOP Will Hold House, Increase Senate Majority

I don't think those two are much better than MSNBC or CNNPC, in some ways they also exude NPC-type qualities

Florida Republicans mailing in more ballots than Democrats.

https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/10/17/republicans-mailing-in-more-ballots-than-democrats-lee-county-is-no-1/

https://county10.com/over-12000-wyoming-voters-changed-party-affiliations-between-july-and-september-2018/

Over 12,000 Wyoming voters changed party affiliations between July and September 2018.

12,509 persons in total changed their party affiliation between July 6th and September 20th:

6,057 Democrats changed and registered as Republicans;
4,355 Unaffiliated persons changed and registered as Republicans;
744 Unaffiliated persons changed and registered as Democrats;
477 members of the Constitution and Libertarian parties changed and registered as Republicans;
430 Republicans changed and registered as Democrats; and
296 persons of various parties changed and registered as Unaffiliated.

Aphroman says

You should hire a few Right wing moderators.

Perhaps it would be reasonable to have two moderators agree if a comment has to be whacked, one moderator on left and one on right. I have noticed that a few comments that are quite personal do not disappear after being flagged.

Thanks to Democrats, Republicans now have a winning slogan:

Aphroman says

For awhile i would flag personal attacks because @Patrick asked us to, i was helping him out. Until they were repeatedly put back up i figured whats the point. Patrick obviously doesn’t care and isn’t even attempting for a level playing field

I flag very, very rarely as often comments are in "gray zone". Most of my flagged comments do disappear, but there were 2-3 cases where blatantly personal attacks re-appeared.

If it’s in the mod queue and I agree it’s an ad hom, I’ll nuke it as such. If it’s 50/50 I let another mod decide. I never override another mods ad hom marking.

dr6B says

I flag very, very rarely as often comments are in "gray zone". Most of my flagged comments do disappear, but there were 2-3 cases where blatantly personal attacks re-appeared.

I do need to keep better records. At least now personal attacks are not completely deleted, but just covered, so I do have a record of those and can see that they are all indeed personal attacks and not just differences in politics.

Heraclitusstudent says

zzyzzx says

Scott Adams Predicts ‘Greatest Turnout by Republicans, Maybe Ever’ in Midterms

Partisan people are known to be the worst forecasters.
Motivated reasoning is killing them.

Yeah but he was right predicting Trump a good chance to win. Let's see how he does this time. Also Adams is not very partisan, he was never a staunch Republican. I suspect he move that way since he makes satirical cartoons and is a somewhat public figure. So in his best self interest he'd be a fool to embrace any of the leftoids identity politics as it may harm or end his career.