patrick.net

TwoScoopsOfWompWomp says

Cook's final electoral map.

I have one even better from Nate Silver, the Guru of Liberal polling and accurate predictions. This was as of the morning of the election:

Hillary: 302
Trump:235

Now for something you will REALLY like!

Florida Democratic Voter Registrations Down Since 2016
https://legalinsurrection.com/2018/08/florida-democratic-voter-registrations-down-since-2016/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+LegalInsurrection+%28Le

We're going to fuck 'em in the ass good alright!

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/402329-worst-case-scenario-for-house-gop-is-70-seat-wipeout




That's the downside of all the gerrymandering for Republicans. In a very Dem friendly year that breaks the gerrymanders, the results become catastrophic.

LeonDurham says

the results become catastrophic.

Why did you leave out this graphic:


The Repubs still hold the House, which is the MOST likely.

What does your boy, Nate Silver say, we'll just take his prediction and invert it, just like last election?

marcus says

The most likely way it could manifest would be with higher turn out among democrats,

Particularly women. This being essentially an all male site we don't get the view of 51% of the population but the gender gap is substantial, growing and they are motivated to vote. Grab your nut sacks and hide the knives.

rdm says

Particularly women.

In 2016, exit surveys showed that among married women who voted, 47% voted for Donald Trump, compared to 49% for Hillary Clinton. Married men voted for President Trump 57% vs 38%. Midterm turnout is generally lower than presidential election years, probably especially among unmarried voters. So, those demographics might favor R.

Democrats chose to sacrifice liberalism and to embrace instead Islam, one of the most illiberal doctrines on earth. That puts the Democrats always one Islamic attack away from losing. As a lifelong real estate guy, Donald Trump recognizes the value of placement. When attention turns to defending against Islamic attacks, he owns the whole block. 2016 saw notable attacks inside the USA, and Democrats lost across most of the republic. Since then, we have continued to see Islamic attacks in other countries, and President Trump calls attention to them every time they happen in a familiar western city such as London. (They happen ALL THE TIME in countries that have more Muslims, e.g. the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, which is itself a terrorist state as per Islam.) Moreover, Democrats' embrace of Islam shows terrible hypocrisy and is easily portrayed as anti-Christian, because Democrats insist on importing Muslims who share many of the same beliefs that Democrats criticize among Christians. As long as the Democrats embrace Islam, which contradicts almost everything most Democrats claim to believe in, they appear hypocritical and anti-Christian, and place their election prospects at the imaginary mercy of Islamic terrorists.

Meanwhile, Republicans have also outflanked Democrats by enacting more liberal policies in the medical sector: right to try, and repealing the Obamacare mandate. Most Democrats opposed right to try, and voted to enact and to keep the Obamacare mandate. It is thus difficult to present Democrats as a liberal party, or even having any coherent agenda other than opposing President Trump, who carried most states and districts in 2016.

In order to produce a blue wave, Democrats need a coherent agenda, e.g. putting Americans first. That would mean agreeing with President Trump about several things, e.g. Islam and immigration. MSM and "liberal" attempts to demonize President Trump preclude that, with the result that Democrats continue losing.

Every election is gonna be local. No election is gonna look like Conor Lamb (a complete an utter 2A Non-NARAL Pro-Tariff populist bluedog as you can get, running in an open seat where the previous office holder Republican resigned in disgrace) , or Texas, or anything else.

In reality, the chances are 50-50 the Dems take the House. I don't see a path to the Senate unless something crazy happens, such as a vulnerable Senator has a scandal.

We have an absolutely booming economy by every metric. You can add Youth Unemployment at 50-year lows and a retail explosion to that as well, now.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/youth-unemployment-hits-52-year-low-1534455755

The best Campaign Ad for 2018:

Interesting article from 2010.

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/11/the-most-important-economic-indicator-in-midterm-elections/65505/

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

We have an absolutely booming economy by every metric.

Not by every metric. Like real wages, for example. That is a pretty important economic indicator, wouldn't you say??

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/05/opinion/columnists/trump-real-wages-inflation-workers-economy.html



https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2018/08/11/trumps-economic-scorecard-higher-inflation-flat-wages-and-a-ballooning-federal-deficit/#888f4322facd

"In the past few days, new economic reports have come out that don’t paint a very rosy picture for a number of economic items. While GDP hit 4.1% for the June quarter, but only 2.9% year over year, and the unemployment rate is hovering at all-time lows, inflation continues to increase, real wages are stagnant and the federal budget deficit is ballooning .
The following reports on inflation and wages could be a couple of the reasons that many American workers are not feeling better about their financial situation. And add to those concerns about Trump’s tariffs, especially as it applies to products such as soybeans. To get an overview of economic data while Trump has been President check out “Trump’s Economic Scorecard: 18 Months Into His Presidency.”

LeonDurham says

Not by every metric. Like real wages, for example. That is a pretty important economic indicator, wouldn't you say??

Nope...

People are spending like crazy, apparent your wage claim means nothing...

Walmart's best sales in a decade show US consumer may be strongest in years because of the tax cut, jobs growth.

Walmart's best growth in comp store sales in a decade comes as the U.S. consumer is showing some of the best signs of strength since the recession.
Retail sales jumped in July, but so did the sales performance at retailers as consumers not only went shopping but spent money on travel and dining out.
Economists say consumer spending is being helped by the tax bill and also the fact that U.S. job creation remains strong, even as unemployment dipped below 4 percent.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/16/walmarts-best-sales-in-a-decade-show-us-consumer-is-alive-and-well-because-of-the-tax-cut-jobs-growth.html

Next....

curious2 says

In order to produce a blue wave, Democrats need a coherent agenda

First of all, the unofficial leader of the party, Hillary Clinton, needs to shut her mouth. Since her defeat, she's been on the road, barking & screaming at the world, passively indicating that the election was some-how misappropriated from her. In contrast, Al Gore went silent, after the 2000 Florida debacle, where the election was in the fact, STOLEN, in the most horrific way possible ... one which was sanctioned by the Supreme Court. So by the following 2004 election season, the Democrats had new leadership and could move on. Today, in place of Gore's graceful exit, we have the Cult of Hillary Clinton which is unabating.

LeonDurham says

Not by every metric. Like real wages

IMHO, we're undergoing a structural change in the economy which is independent of political parties. I believe we're in the early stages of mass automation where employees do not have any leverage on wage increases. A lot of companies can use contract labor to fill stop-gaps in their delivery cycles and thus, not have to maintain permanent headcount, while at the same time CIOs look towards expert systems to maximize the workload of the existing crop of ppl on the permanent payroll. Face it, moving forward, a lot of ppl will need more than 1 job to earn what they used to earn, in the pre-AI era.

Men who are collectivists are cuckolds.

MrMagic says

eople are spending like crazy, apparent your wage claim means nothing...

Walmart's best sales in a decade show US consumer may be strongest in years because of the tax cut, jobs growth.

lol--we're measuring health of the economy by spending at Walmart?? bwahahahahahaha.

Is it possible people are spending more at the cheapest, crappiest, lowest quality crap because they can't afford anything else?? Higher spending at Walmart probably indicates a crappier economy.

Rin says

IMHO, we're undergoing a structural change in the economy which is independent of political parties. I believe we're in the early stages of mass automation where employees do not have any leverage on wage increases.

I agree. Trump and his cult can blame immigration all they want, but they are missing the bigger picture.

curious2 says

In order to produce a blue wave, Democrats need a coherent agenda,

That would be good but unnecessary. In this I agree with Steve Bannon it's all about Trump, who is most motivated to support or oppose. IMO The polls that will be most indicative of the results, especially in House races are what % of a district strongly support or strongly oppose Trump. Those people will vote. We shall see in November.

rdm says

That would be good but unnecessary. In this I agree with Steve Bannon it's all about Trump, who is most motivated to support or oppose.

I don't see how Democrats could oppose Trump more now than they did in 2016, when they imagined him as nuclear Hitler. If it's all about Trump, then he wins. In this I agree with Oprah, who advised, "Do not give your energy to the other side." If Democrats want to win, they need to rally around something that can motivate majorities of voters in most states and Congressional districts. In 2016, Democrats had already TDS, and it was not enough to persuade enough voters in most districts and states. So, to win, I do think Democrats need a coherent agenda to put Americans first.

curious2 says

in 2016, Democrats had TDS, and it was not enough. So, I do think Democrats need a coherent agenda to put Americans first.

Yup voters like me. I have no problem voting dme, republic. IT is more what they represent-not the label. In IL, voting dem is suicidal-they support public unions and refuse to do anything about the disastrous real estate taxes. They have the votes to amend the constitution-but instead pretend to ass some bandage measures which they know the court wills trike down.

In general, mass unlimited immigration, tariffs/free trade(surprisingly this was a strong dem position-now dems loathe it) etc. Now I support gay marriage etc-I am libertarian-but I don't support 32 or is it 112 genders and requiring us to keep all these different bathrooms or anyone saying they feel x gender at this moment and so use x bathroom. If not that is a violation equal to slavery and the holocaust.

What scares me is the SJW, free speech and violence to ensure that only one form of thought is accepted. I saw it at the Trump rally and the recent racist turn of the dems-where they were calling the ICE agent the N word and house n*gga in Portland and several such incidents-chasing Milo out of a NY bar calling him NAZI-antifa-these terrify me for our future.

Last but not least and absolute dela killer-socialism, where they want government control of businesses and redistribution-hell no.

Not to mention Obama's use of the police state to target his rivals-that has gone horrible-Thank God for Trump.

In life we sometime come to a fork. The dem want us to go to a fork where government controls everything, from what you think, what you can express, redistributing your assets and basically eb where Russia, Cambodia, Germany all went.

The repubs are pointing us towards freedom, while the govt protects us from places like cHina etc , but true freedom. I believe we are in a dangerous place and the democrats could lead us into terrible disaster-a world where the govt decides everything-the question-are there enough people as the dems say "woke" enough o move away from the commie filth?

Aphroman says

emember that Trump was elected solely because the DNC went with Hillary.

Remember the part about the DNC stealing the primary for Hillary? That probably had something to do with it

LeonDurham says

lol--we're measuring health of the economy by spending at Walmart?? bwahahahahahaha.

Is it possible people are spending more at the cheapest, crappiest, lowest quality crap because they can't afford anything else?? Higher spending at Walmart probably indicates a crappier economy.

Because their manufacturing jobs were outsourced by Neoliberals?

Hey, what IS the Democratic solution to outsourcing?

Let me guess, Education for jobs that don't exist like Nantotech Engineer and AI Psychologist. Perfect for 55 year old Mike the Steamfitter.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Hey, what IS the Democratic solution to outsourcing?

See---this is undoubtedly the most frustrating part of posting here. This poster has asked this question multiple times before and it's been answered for him multiple times before.

He lets a month or two go by, and then asks it again, pretending that it hasn't been answered for him multiple times before.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Because their manufacturing jobs were outsourced by Neoliberals?

Except far more have been automated away.

LeonDurham says

Except far more have been automated away.

Nope. Not looking at Shenzhen they haven't. People there today still slump over electronics with soldering irons just like they did at Philco in Ohio in the 70s.

LeonDurham says

See---this is undoubtedly the most frustrating part of posting here. This poster has asked this question multiple times before and it's been answered for him multiple times before.

He lets a month or two go by, and then asks it again, pretending that it hasn't been answered for him multiple times before.

Nope, it's never been answered. Everytime I ask it I'm told it was answered or I get a dodge. Another one I like is how the import of millions of unskilled is a good thing when our own unskilled have been doing like shit these past few decades.

Along with "If the Russians hacked the server, how come the DNC hasn't thrust it upon the FBI/NSA for forensic investigation?"

Meanwhile, while every single other metric from unemployment to youth unemployment to GDP growth to retail sales has been doing fantastic over most of the past quarters, the economy sucks because one metric isn't moving well.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Nope, it's never been answered.

bwahahahaha.

You don't remember the Dem platform being cut and pasted on here for you? And linked to it? Really?

Shall I do it for the 4th time?

LeonDurham says

You don't remember the Dem platform being cut and pasted on here for you? And linked to it? Really?

4th Time? Is it vague and education blah-blah-blah, or does it have a comprehensive, full-spectrum answer? It must have been pretty cookie cutter that I don't remember it.

Just link to one of the other 4.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Meanwhile, we have posters who say the Economy sucks, because one number isn't improving as rapidly this quarter, but every single other metric from unemployment to youth unemployment to GDP growth to retail sales has been doing fantastic

One number? Let's see:

Jobs created down.
Real wages down (and NEGATIVE!)
Federal Deficit up.

Shall I continue?

Federal Deficit was increasing under Obama and has been going up for most of the past 35-40 years, that's no change.
Jobs created down is a false metric, since the unemployment rate is at record lows.
Real Wages were also down under Obama in 2013-2014 and certainly most of Obama's term before that, when that should have been a time real wages were booming since it was far from the trough.

Record Unemployment since 1969 (tied for 2000)
Record Youth Unemployment in 52 years
GDP Growth an "Impossible" 4.1% after many quarters of good growth
Retail Sales jumped 6%
Huge new steel and electronics factories opening up

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Federal Deficit was increasing under Obama and has been going up for most of the past 35-40 years, that's no change

Womp, womp. Deficit was reduced by 1/3 under Obama. Try again.

Unemployment rate has simply continued its decline that started under Obama.
GDP is actually slightly lower than under Obama. Obama had two quarters in a row of 5.1% and 4.9%. One quarter of 4.1% is nothing special.

LeonDurham says

Womp, womp. Deficit was reduced by 1/3 under Obama. Try again.

Womp, womp.

The national debt almost DOUBLED under Obama from about $10T to $20T.

Nice try playing games with deficits, we were more indebted after Obama than before.

LeonDurham says

Unemployment rate has simply continued its decline that started under Obama.

Unemployment has really done well under Trump. Obama's recovery was sluggish, it should have been roaring back by 2011.

LeonDurham says

GDP is actually slightly lower than under Obama. Obama had two quarters in a row of 5.1% and 4.9%. One quarter of 4.1% is nothing special.

GDP "Growth" coming out of a horrific recession of "Negative Growth" isn't the same as a sustained boom. Like I said, the hallmark of the Obama "recovery" was how slow and weak it was. Even in 2010, Obama lost millions of jobs.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

The national debt almost DOUBLED under Obama from about $10T to $20T.

Read the quote again. Deficit and Debt are NOT the same thing.

Obama reduced the deficit. Trump is ballooning it out of control.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Unemployment has really done well under Trump. Obama's recovery was sluggish, it should have been roaring back by 2011.

Really? Why don't you post the unemployment rates since 2008 so we can judge.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

GDP "Growth" coming out of a horrific recession of "Negative Growth" isn't the same as a sustained boom. Like I said, the hallmark of the Obama "recovery" was how slow and weak it was. Even in 2010, Obama lost millions of jobs.

Womp, womp, again. Those growth rates were in 2014.

LeonDurham says

Read the quote again. Deficit and Debt are NOT the same thing.

Obama reduced the deficit. Trump is ballooning it out of control.

Obama increased the debt, however. It is not "Ballooning" out of control under Trump.

Obama's first budget has a $1.3T deficit. T for Trillion.

It was the Republicans, not Obama, that forced a sequestration in 2013 that ended up the first Obama era budget not topping a Trillion-dollar deficit

LeonDurham says

Womp, womp, again. Those growth rates were in 2014.

Long Delayed. Those should have been in 2010 or 2011 at the very latest. More likely to do with the huge Republican surge in 2010 and 2012.

Meanwhile, all the numbers for the Entire Trump Presidency are more than respectable, and there are no signs of slowing down.

In 2012, Obama bragged he created 3M jobs since 2010, and anemic number of 90,000 per month, well below the population growth rate, and not only not adequate for that point after the trough of a recession, but rather recessionary in and of itself.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Obama increased the debt, however. It is not "Ballooning" out of control under Trump.

Obama's first budget has a $1.3T deficit. T for Trillion.

It was the Republicans, not Obama, that forced a sequestration in 2013 that ended up the first Obama era budget not topping a Trillion-dollar deficit

Are you kidding me? Obama inherited the worst economy since the Great Depression. Trump was given a booming economy.

And spare me the nonsense that all Republicans spew--either the President is responsible for the budget or he isn't. You can't blame him for the increased spending without crediting him for reducing spending. Unless you're a dishonest "team Republican" member.

Aphroman says

solely because the DNC went with Hillary.

And yet, what part of her platform have they changed really? Some few Democrats campaign on Bernie's platform, but most in the Congress demand mandatory HeritageFoundationCare aka Hillary's Plan aka Obamneycare. And, they "can't wait" to get more Muslims into the Congress. Hillary's problems included the fact that she campaigned honestly (in the sense that she said what she would do, even though she lied about why she would do it) on some really unpopular things: for example, she tried to sell the HeritageFoundationCare mandate, claiming it was a good idea, while Obama campaigned against it but then spun around and signed it, lying along the way including at least one "lie of the year" (per PolitiFact). Hillary acknowledged on TV that lethal terrorism "is clearly rooted in Islamic thinking," and her e-mails acknowledged her Saudi clients were principal funders of terrorism worldwide, but she insisted on spreading Islam and now Democrats "can't wait" to see more of it in Congress.

In this thread, we continue to see the same attempted subterfuge. Obama's deficits were front-loaded, so instead of the fact that he doubled the debt, we hear partisans claim that he reduced the deficit. It's unreal, and it doesn't fool enough people in enough places to win.

I agree with the 50/50 forecast from 2Scoops, a lot can happen in 80 days, but so far I see more Democrats repeating the same playbook from 2016 rather than 2008.

curious2 says

Obama's deficits were front-loaded, so instead of the fact that he doubled the debt, we hear partisans claim that he reduced the deficit.

lol--they're called honest posters.

LeonDurham says

Are you kidding me? Obama inherited the worst economy since the Great Depression. Trump was given a booming economy.

Obama had one of the weakest recoveries in US History, particularly outside of the Coastal Enclaves. By 2012 we still were behind millions of jobs, with pathetic growth rates, despite adding trillions to the Debt. Like I said, one or two quarters of 4 and 5% years after the trough of a recession is NOTHING to brag about, it's something to be concerned about.

Nobody, not even CNN - is making the case that Trump is doing a banging job on the economy.

Real Wages have stunk for most of the past few decades and won't be fixed in a day. It will be fixed by cutting off the nearly unlimited labor supply for big companies.

curious2 says

but Democrats demand spreading Islam and "can't wait" to see more of it in Congress.

See this is a good example of a strawman argument.

LeonDurham says

See this is a good example of a strawman argument.

Not at all. my whole life, Democrat Activists have whinged about religion in politics, Jesus/God in the Public Forum, Separation of Church and State etc. etc.

Now that there are two conservative Muslim candidates, the Democrats are dancing around about how wonderful it is to have religious people running for office.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Nobody, not even CNN - is making the case that Trump is doing a banging job on the economy.

Uh, pat.netters sure make that case.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Real Wages have stunk for most of the past few decades and won't be fixed in a day. It will be fixed by cutting off the nearly unlimited labor supply for big companies.

Fix it? All he's done has made it worse.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Not at all. my whole life, Democrat Activists have whinged about religion in politics, Jesus/God in the Public Forum, Separation of Church and State etc. etc.

Now that there are two conservative Muslim candidates, the Democrats are dancing around about how wonderful it is to have religious people running for office.

OK--please share any example of a Dem demanding that Islam be spread.