patrick.net

FakeP when a seller purposely incites a bidding war by listing a low-ball for sale price, knowing full well that they will not accept it, what say you to that? Just part of the transaction process, right??? They were f'ing with 5, 10, maybe 25 desperate, wretched, and hopeless suckers at a time in the height of the boom (note the "WERE"). SurfX is only f'ing with a single desperate wretched hopeless sucker (one at a time, that is).

"I make about the same amount as me.... Any comments? "
Hey, same with me. :-)

-->Don't forget a housing slowdown will cut into SBC business as well (both residential and business)...likely compounding layoffs. "What? No more Mortgage offices popping up that need voice/data systems setup pronto to handle all those RE transactions?"

Good to see all is well, if a bit dark, in SFBAHCC land.

Good to see all is well, if a bit dark, in SFBAHCC land.

Dark? Huh?

That sounds like fun to try, but I probably wouldn’t.

I probably won't either. I just want to watch. I am too lazy to play. :)

Is the mobile home next to the Christmas in the Park in Downtown San Jose on Market St. Maybe Santa can use it for a changing trailer, and let the reindeer drink from the pool? What a hoot.

I still hate San Jose. :evil:

Now the "Christmas in the Park" is clogging traffic. Completely counterproductive.

Just a thought... after the housing bubble bust, people will pour money into another asset class and blow another bubble.

In case that bubble is gold, price may go through the roof as all the gold *ever mined* can easily fit inside a 20 m^2 cube.

And they are not making any more gold.

I don't know if it's a leading or trailing indicator, but I was astounded to learn the names of my neighbors (lots of them) who are in default on their mortgage.

If you live in San Jose, try it: go to foreclosure.com, type in your zip code, click on the tab for "preforeclosures" and you'lll be amazed at how many folks are apparently too stressed to keep up with their mortgage payments.

Almost as astounding, the "tax lien" tab. So many people went into default in 2003 and 2004. I looked at the Santa Clara County Tax Collection website to find out what the rules are: they allow you to be deliquent on your property taxes for a long time, I think something like 5 years, and they charge a 10% penalty.

Foreclosure.com does not show the names of the "defendant" for tax liens if you're just surfing their site, I guess you have to pay money to subscribe to their service for that information... but they do provide, for free, to websurfers, the names of "defendants" for the mortgage defaults.

I don't know if it's a trailing or leading indicator, but I know that foreclosure.com has listed over 390 households in my zip code that're either behind on their mortgage, have tax liens on their property, or are in bankruptcy.

Either foreclosure.com has bogus information, or there's lots of stressed folks in my Silicon Valley neighborhood.

Wow --Surfer-X & Fake P back and having flame wars. SJ Jim, Schmend Rick, Prat, etc. all back and posting in top form.

It just doesn't get any better than this (*sniff*). Too bad I can't be there Saturday :cry:

Thanks SQT.
Imagine if more people decided to low ball w/out intent. Yeah, it's historically unorthodox, but so are many aspects of this RE mania. How many unwritten rules of financial prudence were broken on the way up? No matter that they were cast aside by financial institutions themselves, with hapless individuals in tow marching to the beat. Well on the way down, how 'bout the individuals break the "rules" and the hapless institutions follow that beat? Time for no more Mr.NiceBubblehead I guess, huh? (heh, I said "huh"). SurferX = SurferChe, on the front lines. LOL.

This also reminds me of Marinite's little ordeal with the Marin IJ newspaper (detailed on his Marin housing bubble blog).
.
.
.
.
Hey, one can dream, right?

Here's what I do not understand at all:
The stock market is usually a pretty decent leading indicator as it reflects everybody's collective bet for the next two or three years. For example, KBHome's stock broke down massively in late '89, about the time where the first signs of the housing bust appeared on the horizon.

Today we have home builder stocks, in particular ones with heavy exposure in bubble areas, reapproach their all-time highs (example: KBHome). In their quarterly earnings call, these folks stated that while their earnings won't *grow* as they did in the quarters before, they'll be fine in 2006.

At the same time, I read in this, other blogs and all over the popular news about all the seller desperation, record-high and growing inventory just before Christmas, empty houses and massive price breaks in new developments, scary mortgage credit statistics and beginning of the crunch, etc.

What's going on?
Do we suffer of selective perception here? Or is it Wall Street who does?

You could argue that the delusion of the bubble is so strong that even investment pros aren't doing any research anymore and just buying that stuff blindly, based on momentum.
You could argue that KBHome's execs don't mind lying through their teeth even though they see the crash coming, but if they lie now and the crash happens next year, what's that going to do for their credibility? I'm not sure they would take that risk just to be able to cash out a bit more.
I know the market can stay irrational longer than one can stay solvent, but why would everybody ignore the well-publicized ominous signs and put their money in these stocks at what could well be a multi-year top?

Please don't get me wrong, I'm as bearish on RE as the next guy on this blog, as the fundamentals are utterly out of whack, but I don't know how to reconcile that.

Sorry but this is just too good to pass up.

Trailer has become mobile home, which evidently can become SFH, nice.

Debtor has become "home owner" and then Captain of Industry, nicer.

No defaults, payments are just looking backwards, nicest yet.

"What’s going on? Do we suffer of selective perception here? Or is it Wall Street who does?"

Neither, and nor does the stock market reflect everyone's bet over the next 2 to 3 years. The stock market is FAR more focused on the short term than you'd probably like to know--the vast majority of the active managers are looking at 2 to 3 months time horizon as oppossed to 2 to 3 years. Most of the share price movement you see on a daily basis is attributed to mutual funds tossing around significant blocks of shares. And in addition, mutual funds are constrained by their styles to invest a certain percentage of assets in a certain industry sector REGARDLESS of what the outlook for that sector may be.

Anyway, yeah we just saw a short-term bounce in homebuilder stocks--my guess is that the fund jockeys on the street are betting that the FED will end the interest rate tightening cycle soon which may keep the housing party going a little longer. Understand that these folks don't give a damn about the long term prospects of any company really--they are the first ones in and first ones out. The street punished all of the homebuilder stocks mercilously about a month and a half ago and they will most definitely do so again, you just can't time the market and know exactly when and what triggers it.

"...Actually you Tuetonic shithead, they aren’t getting ANY offers, thats what makes it so fun. Yes,

Yikes, if you're going to top-tank every Teuton here, at least get the spelling correct. ;)

yeah but you can’t eat gold and gold wont keep bad weather out.

What on earth can serve these two purpose at the same time?

Gingerbread House :)

Ptiemann, as you enter the trailer park remember work will set you free and the showers are just to get the lice off of you.

Surfer-X-
Man, your rants can be funny and to the point, BUT if it's possible to cross a line of propriety here, you're now over.

"Yikes, if you’re going to top-tank every Teuton here, at least get the spelling correct."

Yeah, and please don't top-shelf the OTHER teutonic Kurt, Mr. Vonnegut. Love that guy, he's almost as cheery as Surfer-X too:

http://www.inthesetimes.com/site/main/article/1546/

Well, I guess you don’t have a clue as to what your purpose in life is. I’ll give you a clue, it has to do with inter-personal relationships.

What purpose do "inter-personal relationships" serve?

See, it will get into a circularity very quickly. Life purpose is purely semantic.

"If you believe that your existence spawns from random chances, then you have no life purpose to speak of (i.e., be merry and do whatever you like because it does not matter anyway.)."

I know what your life purpose is: posting the stupidest shit I have ever heard on HOUSING BUBBLE blog. As your hero Bill O'Reilley would say: SHUT UP!!

1. If you believe that your existence spawns from random chances, then you have no life purpose to speak of (i.e., be merry and do whatever you like because it does not matter anyway.).
2. If you believe that your existence spawns from intelligent design, then your life purpose is already fixed before your existence (i.e., Before you design something with a good amount of complexity, like a car, you have to give it a purpose in your design. Later, if the car does exist because you have managed to fix it up, the sole purpose of the car’s existence is merely to serve the purpose you gave it before its existence. Well, as you can see, the car, if it does have a free will, could choose not to do what it was initially designed to do, and so deviates from the purpose which you have in mind before the existence of the car.).
3. 2nd clue: inter-personal relationships is not restricted to humans.

I certainly believe in Intelligent Design. Now what if randomness is part of the design? :)

3. 2nd clue: inter-personal relationships is not restricted to humans.

Huh?

I just had a chat with God and he wants Fake P to SHUT UP.

Now what if randomness is part of the design?

And, perhaps we leave it a that--since we'll never really know?

What was the purpose of this blog again?
I suspect intelligent design is at work here...
or-
simply the chaotic interaction of random viewpoints that somehow form a coherent whole?

I just had a chat with God and he wants Fake P to SHUT UP.

Actually, I do feel that Fake P is genuine . Perhaps he is misguided, but I am sure he is a great person.

pbass, are you coming tomorrow? :)

You know, what all you bubbleheads could do very well is talk and talk and talk, but unfortunately your theories do not conform to reality. I was patient and gave you guys 8 months to see if the HUMUNGOUS CRASH that you clamed actually took place, but it didn’t. How can I believe you if your claims turned out to be false? Tell me, how much more time do you need? Do you want to make adjustments your claims?

I have no intention of convincing people of our theories. They either take it or not. I do not care.

As an engineer, I experienced everyday that if your theories do not work during real implementation, then your theories are useless, period.

Training in engineering can be counterproductive to financial matters. Be cautious.

"Tell me, how much more time do you need? Do you want to make adjustments your claims?"

I don't know who's made what in terms of claims since I'm a newcomer here, but I don't need any more time. The market downturn already began 2 to 3 months ago. Are you trying to say that market downturns are "useless theories"? Market downturns are normal and inevitable, only ignorant people do not understand this. Was the U.S. stock market correction of 2001 a "useless theory"? Was the Great Crash of '29 a "useless theory"? No, that was reality. I know that you believe in "intelligent design"--have you ever considered that perhaps your purpose in life is to be an ignorant stupid fool that other, smarter people can learn lessons from? Because I think that is your role--a blind lemming. Educate yourself fool:

http://www.taxopedia.com/features/crashes/

That's not theory, that's history. See if you can learn from it.

Sales of new homes fell again in November to their lowest level since September 2001 as builders continued to be hammered by canceled deals, the local Building Industry Association reported Wednesday.

My eyes just flat out welled up with tears when I read this. But I must admit that I am more than a little offened that my "friends" on this blog didn't bother telling me that I could effectively double my pleasure by going to the GM/FORD/Dodge dealer after the open house and as my pen touches the paper on the over priced piece of shit SUV, get up and walk away. I'm hurt. Man, a composite FICO of 790, no debt, and a relatively high paying job works wonders on people. I can see the hurt looks now as I balk at actually taking the SUV home. No GI Joe with the Kung-Fu grip for your little fatties at home this Christmas Mr. SUV dealer. :)

but unfortunately your theories do not conform to reality

That's right. All I see is stability for housing and the lending industry ad infinitum No cause for alarm, at all.

I just don’t like it when ignorants make judgemental posts about mobile home parks. They probably have never been and certainly never lived in one.

Herr Tiemann, mobile home parks? They are trailer parks and they are filled with tweakers, losers and scumbags. Always have been, always will be. But hey man, if these are your peeps by all means "buy" one to add to your burgeoning RE empire. Not to mention that they are tornado magnets.

Oh BTW I took the liberty of correcting your tags. Jackass. [] does not =

Herr Tiemann, I see the problem now, it's a matter of semantics, let me explain it to you, it's like this, if your "house" is "delivered" on a "truck" that is, if your "house" used to have "wheels" and was pulled behind a "truck" then it is a TRAILER Hope this helps. Good luck on that purchase though, hope it all works out for you :)

Fake P, I see that you are desperate in proving us wrong. :)

The market has its reality. Whether you can show that we are wrong or not will not change that reality.

"Let me know, I am a patient man and I will promise to check back with you."

Why don't you just watch the market and see what happens? I expect a drop of about 20% in the Bay Area over the next year. But who the Hell cares what I expect or think? I have made my own financial plans and decisions based on my own situation, what I think is most likely to happen, and where I choose to invest my own money. You should do the same.

The over-leveraged US consumer:

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/rpt/USConsumerSpending.html

Fake P's response: "My wishes and dreams are not equal to reality."

I personally have no wishes or dreams whatsoever concerning what is currently unfolding. I merely watch from the sidelines as a fascinated observer of history unfolding.

Anyway Fake P, why don't you STFU and go buy some condos?

SQT -- I have a family member who is a mortgage broker up in Sac. I asked him the other day how goes the bubble deflation up there? He says it is now most definitely a "sellers market"; he saw this coming and has been saving lots and lots during the boom times as were most of his co-workers. I'm sure Fake P knows better than the industry insiders though.

He says it is now most definitely a “sellers market”; he saw this coming and has been saving lots and lots during the boom times as were most of his co-workers.

Huh? Seller's market?

"But I think it’s still dramatic."

Oh come on, now YOU'RE being dramatic, that's just a Holliday slowdown. :)

"Huh? Seller’s market?"

Doh. Buyers market obviously.

The looser move would be to continue to rent where I am at about $1,500 a month versus pay $700 a month in a park so I can bank the difference and not let some other “better” person make a living off of my back any more.

Absofuckinglootly. Hey man, mileage may vary, good to hear that you're making out.

SacTown stats:

http://www.benengebreth.org/housingtracker/location/California/Sacramento/