patrick.net

"What’s going on? Do we suffer of selective perception here? Or is it Wall Street who does?"

Neither, and nor does the stock market reflect everyone's bet over the next 2 to 3 years. The stock market is FAR more focused on the short term than you'd probably like to know--the vast majority of the active managers are looking at 2 to 3 months time horizon as oppossed to 2 to 3 years. Most of the share price movement you see on a daily basis is attributed to mutual funds tossing around significant blocks of shares. And in addition, mutual funds are constrained by their styles to invest a certain percentage of assets in a certain industry sector REGARDLESS of what the outlook for that sector may be.

Anyway, yeah we just saw a short-term bounce in homebuilder stocks--my guess is that the fund jockeys on the street are betting that the FED will end the interest rate tightening cycle soon which may keep the housing party going a little longer. Understand that these folks don't give a damn about the long term prospects of any company really--they are the first ones in and first ones out. The street punished all of the homebuilder stocks mercilously about a month and a half ago and they will most definitely do so again, you just can't time the market and know exactly when and what triggers it.

"...Actually you Tuetonic shithead, they aren’t getting ANY offers, thats what makes it so fun. Yes,

Yikes, if you're going to top-tank every Teuton here, at least get the spelling correct. ;)

yeah but you can’t eat gold and gold wont keep bad weather out.

What on earth can serve these two purpose at the same time?

Gingerbread House :)

Ptiemann, as you enter the trailer park remember work will set you free and the showers are just to get the lice off of you.

Surfer-X-
Man, your rants can be funny and to the point, BUT if it's possible to cross a line of propriety here, you're now over.

"Yikes, if you’re going to top-tank every Teuton here, at least get the spelling correct."

Yeah, and please don't top-shelf the OTHER teutonic Kurt, Mr. Vonnegut. Love that guy, he's almost as cheery as Surfer-X too:

http://www.inthesetimes.com/site/main/article/1546/

Well, I guess you don’t have a clue as to what your purpose in life is. I’ll give you a clue, it has to do with inter-personal relationships.

What purpose do "inter-personal relationships" serve?

See, it will get into a circularity very quickly. Life purpose is purely semantic.

"If you believe that your existence spawns from random chances, then you have no life purpose to speak of (i.e., be merry and do whatever you like because it does not matter anyway.)."

I know what your life purpose is: posting the stupidest shit I have ever heard on HOUSING BUBBLE blog. As your hero Bill O'Reilley would say: SHUT UP!!

1. If you believe that your existence spawns from random chances, then you have no life purpose to speak of (i.e., be merry and do whatever you like because it does not matter anyway.).
2. If you believe that your existence spawns from intelligent design, then your life purpose is already fixed before your existence (i.e., Before you design something with a good amount of complexity, like a car, you have to give it a purpose in your design. Later, if the car does exist because you have managed to fix it up, the sole purpose of the car’s existence is merely to serve the purpose you gave it before its existence. Well, as you can see, the car, if it does have a free will, could choose not to do what it was initially designed to do, and so deviates from the purpose which you have in mind before the existence of the car.).
3. 2nd clue: inter-personal relationships is not restricted to humans.

I certainly believe in Intelligent Design. Now what if randomness is part of the design? :)

3. 2nd clue: inter-personal relationships is not restricted to humans.

Huh?

I just had a chat with God and he wants Fake P to SHUT UP.

Now what if randomness is part of the design?

And, perhaps we leave it a that--since we'll never really know?

What was the purpose of this blog again?
I suspect intelligent design is at work here...
or-
simply the chaotic interaction of random viewpoints that somehow form a coherent whole?

I just had a chat with God and he wants Fake P to SHUT UP.

Actually, I do feel that Fake P is genuine . Perhaps he is misguided, but I am sure he is a great person.

pbass, are you coming tomorrow? :)

You know, what all you bubbleheads could do very well is talk and talk and talk, but unfortunately your theories do not conform to reality. I was patient and gave you guys 8 months to see if the HUMUNGOUS CRASH that you clamed actually took place, but it didn’t. How can I believe you if your claims turned out to be false? Tell me, how much more time do you need? Do you want to make adjustments your claims?

I have no intention of convincing people of our theories. They either take it or not. I do not care.

As an engineer, I experienced everyday that if your theories do not work during real implementation, then your theories are useless, period.

Training in engineering can be counterproductive to financial matters. Be cautious.

"Tell me, how much more time do you need? Do you want to make adjustments your claims?"

I don't know who's made what in terms of claims since I'm a newcomer here, but I don't need any more time. The market downturn already began 2 to 3 months ago. Are you trying to say that market downturns are "useless theories"? Market downturns are normal and inevitable, only ignorant people do not understand this. Was the U.S. stock market correction of 2001 a "useless theory"? Was the Great Crash of '29 a "useless theory"? No, that was reality. I know that you believe in "intelligent design"--have you ever considered that perhaps your purpose in life is to be an ignorant stupid fool that other, smarter people can learn lessons from? Because I think that is your role--a blind lemming. Educate yourself fool:

http://www.taxopedia.com/features/crashes/

That's not theory, that's history. See if you can learn from it.

Sales of new homes fell again in November to their lowest level since September 2001 as builders continued to be hammered by canceled deals, the local Building Industry Association reported Wednesday.

My eyes just flat out welled up with tears when I read this. But I must admit that I am more than a little offened that my "friends" on this blog didn't bother telling me that I could effectively double my pleasure by going to the GM/FORD/Dodge dealer after the open house and as my pen touches the paper on the over priced piece of shit SUV, get up and walk away. I'm hurt. Man, a composite FICO of 790, no debt, and a relatively high paying job works wonders on people. I can see the hurt looks now as I balk at actually taking the SUV home. No GI Joe with the Kung-Fu grip for your little fatties at home this Christmas Mr. SUV dealer. :)

but unfortunately your theories do not conform to reality

That's right. All I see is stability for housing and the lending industry ad infinitum No cause for alarm, at all.

I just don’t like it when ignorants make judgemental posts about mobile home parks. They probably have never been and certainly never lived in one.

Herr Tiemann, mobile home parks? They are trailer parks and they are filled with tweakers, losers and scumbags. Always have been, always will be. But hey man, if these are your peeps by all means "buy" one to add to your burgeoning RE empire. Not to mention that they are tornado magnets.

Oh BTW I took the liberty of correcting your tags. Jackass. [] does not =

Herr Tiemann, I see the problem now, it's a matter of semantics, let me explain it to you, it's like this, if your "house" is "delivered" on a "truck" that is, if your "house" used to have "wheels" and was pulled behind a "truck" then it is a TRAILER Hope this helps. Good luck on that purchase though, hope it all works out for you :)

Fake P, I see that you are desperate in proving us wrong. :)

The market has its reality. Whether you can show that we are wrong or not will not change that reality.

"Let me know, I am a patient man and I will promise to check back with you."

Why don't you just watch the market and see what happens? I expect a drop of about 20% in the Bay Area over the next year. But who the Hell cares what I expect or think? I have made my own financial plans and decisions based on my own situation, what I think is most likely to happen, and where I choose to invest my own money. You should do the same.

The over-leveraged US consumer:

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/rpt/USConsumerSpending.html

Fake P's response: "My wishes and dreams are not equal to reality."

I personally have no wishes or dreams whatsoever concerning what is currently unfolding. I merely watch from the sidelines as a fascinated observer of history unfolding.

Anyway Fake P, why don't you STFU and go buy some condos?

SQT -- I have a family member who is a mortgage broker up in Sac. I asked him the other day how goes the bubble deflation up there? He says it is now most definitely a "sellers market"; he saw this coming and has been saving lots and lots during the boom times as were most of his co-workers. I'm sure Fake P knows better than the industry insiders though.

He says it is now most definitely a “sellers market”; he saw this coming and has been saving lots and lots during the boom times as were most of his co-workers.

Huh? Seller's market?

"But I think it’s still dramatic."

Oh come on, now YOU'RE being dramatic, that's just a Holliday slowdown. :)

"Huh? Seller’s market?"

Doh. Buyers market obviously.

The looser move would be to continue to rent where I am at about $1,500 a month versus pay $700 a month in a park so I can bank the difference and not let some other “better” person make a living off of my back any more.

Absofuckinglootly. Hey man, mileage may vary, good to hear that you're making out.

SacTown stats:

http://www.benengebreth.org/housingtracker/location/California/Sacramento/

Surfer-X,

Those Nazi/shower references (deleted) were way over the line, as was the F--k You. Going on an anti-boomer rant is one thing, getting nasty & personal with another blogger is another. You may not like/agree with Ptiemann, but that's no excuse to go off like that. There are better ways to make your point.

All: Again, please keep it CIVIL and NON-PERSONAL with other bloggers.
You have been warned.

Bubbleheads: Your wishes and dreams are not equal to reality.

I got a feeling fake p will be eating these words come spring.

You have been warned.

Line? I wasn't aware there was a line. Harm you are funny, seems to me that Herr Teimann was the first to take it personal And even if you make them cry, what’s your satisfaction? That you are not the only loser? What a waste of a life. Did you issue a similar fatwa against him? Seems to me that the line was crossed then and once over the line who the fuck cares how far you go. Personal attack is a personal fucking attack, no matter the degree. Before you get on your fucking soapbox consider the background, fool.

The next time I return and knock on the door, I hope that this website would have already ceased to exist…:p

Yes, it will be renamed to "Bay Area Housing Crash Completed - How did prices fall 65% in two years?"

Surfer-X,

I missed ptiemann's initial insult on the first pass (now gone). You know I am a fan of your many inspired anti-boomer/speculator rants and that I'm not trying to play sides or favorites here.

Honest criticism, pointing out the flaws in someone's arguments or general bitching is one thing, but I just don't want this thread to devolve into another MP-style flame war, that's all.

Forgot the :) face.

HARM, fair enough. Thanks for the follow-up :)

@SQT --thanks!

@Surfer-X --cool. I'm still a fan ;-)

Sales down is not equal to a CRASH. In fact, it is so far from it that the distance is like one end of the universe to the other end.

Eh... volume is important information in determining trend continuation or reversal.

I do not know why you need to be defensive. I did not question your decision to buy given the parameters you have given earlier (4.5% 30YR FRM payment not much more than rent). I might have done the same thing given the same circumstances.

Ok can someone riddle me this, 1) what does "buy" mean, Well say Chuck the wife and I just "bought" this house. We put nothing down and make neg am payments each month. What does "buy" mean. 2) Isn't the guberment the only one who can actually "create" wealth? That is, they print the money. Debtors house goes up in value, debtor goes to bank yet again to extract that richly deserved equity to buy the wife the rabbit she's always wanted, bank makes the loan because they received their fee and don't really give a fuck if the loan gets paid back. Where does the money actually come from? The guberment?

What tickles me the most is that the bubble is of course just a pyramid scheme, and yes, I am sure a lot of people made money, the thing is the house doesn't do anything, it doesn't work, it doesn't produce, it just sits there. To think that it would just keep going up in value implies a faith in something that I just can't fathom. Here's the clue people, borrowed money isn't yours and if you were too fucking stupid to get out before the tumble, which by the way is occuring as we speak, then you deserve your place in the soup line.

I hope you guys will have another Blog party in the future when I can attend --I'm just dying to meet everyone. Maybe someone can bring a camera and get some snaps for me on Saturday??