patrick.net

Surfer-X,

Those Nazi/shower references (deleted) were way over the line, as was the F--k You. Going on an anti-boomer rant is one thing, getting nasty & personal with another blogger is another. You may not like/agree with Ptiemann, but that's no excuse to go off like that. There are better ways to make your point.

All: Again, please keep it CIVIL and NON-PERSONAL with other bloggers.
You have been warned.

Bubbleheads: Your wishes and dreams are not equal to reality.

I got a feeling fake p will be eating these words come spring.

You have been warned.

Line? I wasn't aware there was a line. Harm you are funny, seems to me that Herr Teimann was the first to take it personal And even if you make them cry, what’s your satisfaction? That you are not the only loser? What a waste of a life. Did you issue a similar fatwa against him? Seems to me that the line was crossed then and once over the line who the fuck cares how far you go. Personal attack is a personal fucking attack, no matter the degree. Before you get on your fucking soapbox consider the background, fool.

The next time I return and knock on the door, I hope that this website would have already ceased to exist…:p

Yes, it will be renamed to "Bay Area Housing Crash Completed - How did prices fall 65% in two years?"

Surfer-X,

I missed ptiemann's initial insult on the first pass (now gone). You know I am a fan of your many inspired anti-boomer/speculator rants and that I'm not trying to play sides or favorites here.

Honest criticism, pointing out the flaws in someone's arguments or general bitching is one thing, but I just don't want this thread to devolve into another MP-style flame war, that's all.

Forgot the :) face.

HARM, fair enough. Thanks for the follow-up :)

@SQT --thanks!

@Surfer-X --cool. I'm still a fan ;-)

Sales down is not equal to a CRASH. In fact, it is so far from it that the distance is like one end of the universe to the other end.

Eh... volume is important information in determining trend continuation or reversal.

I do not know why you need to be defensive. I did not question your decision to buy given the parameters you have given earlier (4.5% 30YR FRM payment not much more than rent). I might have done the same thing given the same circumstances.

Ok can someone riddle me this, 1) what does "buy" mean, Well say Chuck the wife and I just "bought" this house. We put nothing down and make neg am payments each month. What does "buy" mean. 2) Isn't the guberment the only one who can actually "create" wealth? That is, they print the money. Debtors house goes up in value, debtor goes to bank yet again to extract that richly deserved equity to buy the wife the rabbit she's always wanted, bank makes the loan because they received their fee and don't really give a fuck if the loan gets paid back. Where does the money actually come from? The guberment?

What tickles me the most is that the bubble is of course just a pyramid scheme, and yes, I am sure a lot of people made money, the thing is the house doesn't do anything, it doesn't work, it doesn't produce, it just sits there. To think that it would just keep going up in value implies a faith in something that I just can't fathom. Here's the clue people, borrowed money isn't yours and if you were too fucking stupid to get out before the tumble, which by the way is occuring as we speak, then you deserve your place in the soup line.

I hope you guys will have another Blog party in the future when I can attend --I'm just dying to meet everyone. Maybe someone can bring a camera and get some snaps for me on Saturday??

I hope you guys will have another Blog party in the future when I can attend –I’m just dying to meet everyone.

Maybe someone can bring a camera and get some snaps for me on Saturday??

I will try, if I remember to bring a camera. :)

Glen Gerry Bob Ross.

I'm actually 74% less offensive in person.

"Sales down is not equal to a CRASH. In fact, it is so far from it that the distance is like one end of the universe to the other end." -- Fake P.

Wrong again. A real estate market, being inherently far less liquid than a financial market, will have a long sustained price decline caused by decreased transaction volume caused by decreased demand. Demand has decreased due to currently high cost and a rising interest rate environment which increases monthly cost. A real estate market crash will be spread over a minimum of two years and will likely last much longer. You're an idiot. I'm shocked that you can even read and type.

@SFRenter

You’re an idiot. I’m shocked that you can even read and type.

Have you considered the liberal use of profanity?

"Have you considered the liberal use of profanity?"

I have, but in this guy's case, it would be like swearing at my dog. Yelling at a poor dumb animal just doesn't make sense because it's clear that it cannot comprehend certain concepts.

@SFR hehehehe, thanks for the laugh ;) dogs.

Hah hah hah hah! Give that monkey some darts and let him pick some Real Estate portfolios for us!

Way back during the boom boom dot com 90's, comedy central had a "stock pickin chicken" and it actually out performed the experts.

Have you considered the liberal use of profanity?

San Francisco RENTER,

Surfer-X was just being ironic here (see our previous exchange above). Instead of calling another blogger an "idiot", let me recommend some better, more flame-retardant variations:

"your arguments are illogical and not supported by the facts"
"the basis for your conclusions is badly flawed"
"you are employing a straw man/Reductio ad absurdum in your reasoning"

“Sales down is not equal to a CRASH. In fact, it is so far from it that the distance is like one end of the universe to the other end.” -Fake P

Also, given that the Universe is constantly expanding at the speed of light, your distance measurement is impossible to quantify according to the theory of relativity.

Well folks, I'm just going to go off and bang my head against a wall so I don't have to read any more Fake P postings. Have a great weekend!

Fake P,

IANAB (I am not a broker), but my understanding is that low sales volume in a market does not indicate crash directly, but it strongly indicates reversal of the trend. Since the market is extremely high right now reversal would mean prices going down (i.e. crash).

You are right though that in different state of market (e.g. falling market) low sales volume could indicate recovery, but I think the trend has been clearly established upwards during last 5 years.

By te way that is the reason why market volume is so closely monitored (and reported in news) for stock market as well. If volume falls investors get nervous for trend to reverse. If volume is up everybody is comfortable that current trend continues.

Why must a reversal of trend ABSOLUTELY and NECESSARILY lead to a CRASH? Why? Why? Why? Most of you spoke as if you knew what exactly will happen in the future.

Fake p, I could tell you why....but it's pointless because its already been discussed previously...you can look though previous threads and find the answers....no need for us to repeat. If you want to see where the crash is starting to happen, read Seekonk foreclosure filings up 163 percent. This is Massachusetts.... It is ARM's and I/O (suicide)loans that have accounted for most of the foreclosures. In the bubble areas, many loans are of the I/O and N/A variety...and these loans are starting to adjust....just wait until spring, there will be many more! However, if you bought in this market, you have my condolences.

Ah…finally someone in this blog is able to understand me and communicate to me at the same level.

*Ahem* I could easily respond with something snotty like, "wouldn't 'same level' be an arrogant blow-hard who distorts and exaggerates the other side's positions?", but since I'm glad Fake P's back, I'll let this one pass :roll:

My initial point is that even if there is a reversal of trend, there is still a huge gap between “reversal of trend” and “crash”. “reversal of trend” could lead to any of the following (and much more):
1. flat appreciation.
2. 1% decline every year for the next 10 years.
3. 5% decline every year for the next 5 years.
4. and on and on, the possibilities are endless.

'Scuze me, but isn't #3 almost EXACTLY what I and most 'bubble-heads' on this blog have been predicting for the last 6 months? I guess-timated it would be a 30-50% decline in CA over at least a 5-7 year period, based on how overvalued homes are vs. rents/incomes. Check out the archives --be my guest.

No one here has ever said a housing crash has to play out exactly like a stock market crash --RE moves much slower and is much stickier on the way down, mainly due to its relative lack of liquidity, much higher transaction times, complexity & costs, time/trouble it takes lenders to foreclose, etc.

"I’ll check back with you guys 6 months later to see how the market is crashing."

Excellent. You should buy another 2 or 3 condos on negatively amortizing I/O loans and let us know how that works out for you. I bet you'll have doubled your investment by then!

Fake P.

"My initial point is that even if there is a reversal of trend, there is still a huge gap between “reversal of trend” and “crash”. “reversal of trend” could lead to any of the following (and much more):
1. flat appreciation.
2. 1% decline every year for the next 10 years.
3. 5% decline every year for the next 5 years.
4. and on and on, the possibilities are endless."

I agree that degree of the decline is far from being certain, but considering that current trend upwards has been unusually steep, the trend going down could potentially be as steep as well.

Anyway, regardless of the severity of down trend I think that buying into the market with current prices is disasterous to ones financial health. Considering any of your options 1), 2) or 3) will result in considerable loss of equity and/or negative cash flow over renting in next 10 years, if interest rates keep rising. And as far as I've heard that seems to still to be the plan for feds.

Long live Surfer-X.

Here here.

Wow, a lovefest for someone who's known best for his racist drivel. Nice. Congratulations, folks.

“The median price paid for a Bay Area home was $625,000 last month, a new record. That was up 1.8 percent from $614,000 in October, and up 17.3 percent from $533,000 for November a year ago. Annual price increases so far this year have ranged from 17.2 percent to 20.5 percent. ”

october: "My house didn't sell.....I'm going to increase the price 5%"

november: "My house still didn't sell....I'm going to increase it another 5%"

december: "Still not sold.......I'm going to increase the price another 5%"

.......hell, prices keep increasing while sales are slowing ;)

october: “My house didn’t sell…..I’m going to increase the price 5%”

…….hell, prices keep increasing while sales are slowing

LOL :lol:

For all the Bulls,

What's bulls have glossed over to a large extent has been the "sea change" in the habits of the American consumer. Consumers first, workers, well a distant second. Work ethic is scoffed at, along with company/employee loyalty. The housing boom held the promise of "Every Man a King!" A veritable Magna Carta. Liberation from the duldrums of the 40 hour week, just as the tech bubble promised. Many bestowed upon themselves a level of sophistication normally reserved for "old money". "What?" You're 45 and still working? It's fairly common knowledge that the koi ponds and SUV's were paid for with cash-out refi's. Home prices only needed to "flatten out" to derail the boom and become a bust. With this source of instant liquidity evaporated the party ended quickly.

SQT,

Kudos on the 5 stages, and I've been through them not once but twice! Once in the stock market and I've happily sidestepped the housing crash. Starting over once in life is enough, and I suspect that is what the bulls are grappling with. They didn't get to retire at 45 and now they're upside down in a McMansion until doomsday. I too love the smell of desperation in the morning!

Lulu is a pretty good restaurant in SF. I remember having the roasted whole seabass. :)

All PRIME(tm) counties (Napa, Marin, SF, San Mateo) have registed a MoM decline.

There is also a Lulu Petite in the Ferry Building. :)

Too bad we are not meeting there. :)

Racist? Me? Now I've been called many many things, asshole being on top of the list. But racist? I must hate my mexican half, self-loathing? now that explains it, thanks.

And thanks to you SQT :)

Surfer-X writes:
Racist? Me? Now I’ve been called many many things, asshole being on top of the list. But racist? I must hate my mexican half, self-loathing? now that explains it, thanks.

Dude, really don't want to disturb your blissful ignorance, but I got news for you. Just because you may or may not be a member of some minority doesn't mean you can now say everything about everybody. It goes both ways. Associating someone with Nazi criminals in the most insulting way imaginable just because he's German and somewhat obnoxious is racism in my book.

I lost my respect for you a while ago already. I know you don't give a shit about that. After your recent outbreak I'm instantly losing all respect for everybody who's showing sympathy for you. And I'm sure no one gives a shit about that either.
Just telling you how it is. Congratulations again.

But,… what about the fact that Bay Area homes prices reached an all time record high of $625,000?

How come we can ‘t have a rationale discussion about this? I don’t get it.

Median doesn't mean much......Just an article by some realtor who is making it out to be more than it really is....for every one of those, there are a thousand others referring to the bust. All it takes is one seriously stupid sheeple to buy a house at a high price on the high end of the market and the median will go higher. There are very fewer sheeple left to buy....and I'm glad if all the rest of them buy in now so that come spring time, the crash will be more pronounced. :)

"But,… what about the fact that Bay Area homes prices reached an all time record high of $625,000?

How come we can ‘t have a rationale discussion about this? I don’t get it." --Lulu

Well Lulu, there's just not much to discuss--I mean Bay Area homes just reached a RECORD HIGH! It speaks for itself, doesn't it?! And how many records have they broken already? No doubt they will keep breaking records forever! Bay Area homes have now risen far more over the past five years than they have over any five year period in history. And now that this train is in motion Lulu, it's got momentum--ain't nothin' gonna stop this runaway housing market train baby! I know you don't want to miss the train Lulu--there it is, leaving the station right now! You need to get into this market honey, RIGHT NOW!! Don't you realize that if you don't buy now you may never, ever, ever get to buy a house in your LIFE?! I mean Bay Area homes just reached a RECORD HIGH honey!! If you thought this past five years of housing growth was a wild ride you ain't seen nothin' yet! You know and I know that Real Estate prices in the Bay Area never go down, so don't listen to this discussion board full of losers. They're not getting on the train with you and me baby. We're going to leave them far, far behind. Now get out there and buy as many condos as you can--DO NOT, I repeat DO NOT listen to any of this crap about getting a "safe mortgage"--whatever the Hell that means. You get whatever mortgages you need to afford as much Real Estate as you can buy--and don't even worry about the total cost you're going to pay for this stuff--all you need to worry about is can you make those monthly payments? You know that you've bought enough property when you can afford to buy food and nothing else--all the rest of your income will be going to making your mortgage payments. This is all you have to do and I can guarantee you that you are going to be a Trillionaire. Now get out there and buy buy buy! And don't you forget this: Bay Area homes just reached a RECORD HIGH!

But to speak of the Germans as a ‘race’ lands us in precisely the pickle that we’re trying to avoid, doesn’t it? Volkishness?

Ok, then let's split some hair and call it "discrimination against one's nationality". The effect is the same.