patrick.net

It feels like a good time to sell to me. But that's just a feeling. Like perhaps this particular tech bubble has peaked.

For a more mathematical approach, you could use a rent-vs-buy calculator and simply call it a rent-and-sell calculator. But they always work out the same around Palo Alto.

What it really comes down to is your confidence in continued appreciation far beyond the general inflation rate.

Nice job, and good luck selling the house. In 2011 we bought here in Houston, we bought a 2450 square foot, 2 story house for $111,000. It recently (about 5 months ago) appraised for $175,000 so I'm not feeling too bad. Of course it's the old, so what can I buy for $175,000 - uh, what I already have. Of course the two of us don't need a house this big - but I'd rather have a house bigger than I need the one that is too small. Good luck finding your new home (even if that is a couple years down the road).

Flip and grow rich!

Ironman says

Problem is, the next house you want to buy has TRIPLED in value.. Hope you saved lots of money.

Nah, if I buy it will be a smaller house, further out, and I won't care about schools, so that'll make it cheaper also.

rando says

It feels like a good time to sell to me. But that's just a feeling. Like perhaps this particular tech bubble has peaked.

For a more mathematical approach, you could use a rent-vs-buy calculator and simply call it a rent-and-sell calculator. But they always work out the same around Palo Alto.

What it really comes down to is your confidence in continued appreciation far beyond the general inflation rate.

I'm in the tech industry and I'm seeing a lot of indications that the bubble is popping. The real question in my mind is how far it will actually drop. In Palo Alto in the last crash, it went down about 20%. I'm pretty confident the next drop will be worse, but it also wouldn't surprise me if it wasn't.

1. If the house is consumption item, sell it when you do not need its utility.
2. If the house is used as a tool to squeeze rent out of people in places where there are jobs, you have to follow Patrick and do that calculator.

I think you are somewhat clear about 1 but not clear about 2 and asking for people's opinion.

My opinion is that if you are not clear about 2, at least follow what you are clear about because it is not wise to take risk on something you do not understand and sacrifice something you do understand.

JW says

1. If the house is consumption item, sell it when you do not need its utility.

2. If the house is used as a tool to squeeze rent out of people in places where there are jobs, you have to follow Patrick and do that calculator.

I think you are somewhat clear about 1 but not clear about 2 and asking for people's opinion.

My opinion is that if you are not clear about 2, at least follow what you are clear about because it is not wise to take risk on something you do not understand and sacrifice something you do understand.

I have no desire to be a landlord. What I was wondering was what people thought of my call of this being the top. If I intended to stay in Palo Alto long-term I wouldn't have sold, but I'm ready to move on, so I decided to sell.

JFP says

What I was wondering was what people thought of my call of this being the top.

As we know, real estate is local. Here in Houston I saw a rise in prices followed by a decrease as oil went down (I'm talking this year) then a rise again but with the middle of summer coming, trying to establish school, etc. I'm seeing a bit of a decline in prices. Sell when you can, and look at the offers you get when you first put in on the market. My sister is trying to sell a place in Salt Lake City, a beautiful place with great views, lots of room, even it's own indoor basketball court. She's asking $850K, in the first week she got offers of $700K and $750K but was holding out for $800K and it hasn't appeared. Now she's hoping that the getting ready for school rush will hit and she will get her price. I'm not so sure she will, I think she would have done better had she taken the $750K and run.

JFP says

Time will tell whether it's the right move, but I'm feeling pretty confident that this is the right time. Thoughts?

Never speculate with you home. You can end up being sorry.

Here's a quick update. Sold the house in 5 days from listing. Only two offers, but it went just over asking. Seems like two offers is the maximum anyone is getting in Palo Alto rightt now.

11 days from initial post to sale. Nice.

YesYNot says

11 days from initial post to sale. Nice.

Yes, things still move quickly, but the frenzied bidding and the all-cash deals are a lot rarer.

Is it the right time to sell a house in Palo Alto? Yes, of course.

Will you kick yourself in 20yrs for selling it? Yes of course.

Owning a home in Palo Alto that just doubled in value means you can't go wrong regardless of what you do with it today.

Just comes down to what you have planned in life.

BayArea says

Is it the right time to sell a house in Palo Alto? Yes, of course.

Will you kick yourself in 20yrs for selling it? Yes of course.

Owning a home in Palo Alto that just doubled in value means you can't go wrong regardless of what you do with it today.

Just comes down to what you have planned in life.

Yes. I'm planning on moving out of Palo Alto in the next couple of years, so that drove the decision to sell. God knows what inflation will have done to house prices in 20 years.