patrick.net

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/07/27/donald-trumps-surge-is-heavily-reliant-on-less-educated-americans-heres-why/?wpisrc=nl_az_most

In the last few weeks, Americans (and the media) have watched in awe as a New York real estate magnate prone to bellicose behavior and hyperbole has become the GOP's leading candidate for the White House. But how did this come to be? A lot of it has to do with education.

Dan8267 says

If you got that, then your reading comprehension is low. This thread is about how supporting Trump is a strong metric of stupidity, not Trump's chances of winning.

That's just your thinking Dan. Everyone else already figured out that Trump is a better choice than a feminazi Hillary.

what is more shocking is two third of primary GOP voters supports his proposal of blocking Muslims...

Quigley says

I think Trump's supporters are people who feel marginalized by the PC system that has creeped over the nation to be a capricious judge over all of our lives.

That's it in a nut shell. And Trump understands them.

I bet Trump has a whole battery full of Wonderful and Great ideas that will no doubt make the Establishment quake in their boots and call him Hitler and a Facist, while the rest of America says...
"Well hold on now for a minute lets hear him out."

Every time the media says his light is fading he'll release these little gems. Like a ball of yarn and the Establishment will pounce and get all tangled up in it.
Then Trumps numbers will start to climb again. He's going throttle them as he needs them. To blow bast the Primaries then pull his best one for last around October of 2016.
Where he lays out his economic prosperity plan, that builds a stronger middle class and favors small business support over Corporate cronyism.
The media will go in full Wicked Witch of the West meltdown, and pick him up on their shoulders and carry him all the way past the November finish line.

It will be a riot watching the media try to Mansplain to the public how Donald's plan to create jobs, and economic prosperity is just another example of White Supremacy and Racism.
Then try telling the public we can't go back to self sufficiency they don't want to go back to being middle class.

What we are witnessing here folks is the greatest Ropadope artist since Mohammad Ali.
He's got all of these clowns running counter Trump, they are all forgetting to add any substance to their own campaign. Bitching about someone else is not a plan.
Then he act's like he's getting tired then bam! Remember the last time Trump trolled and said he would drop out if his numbers tanked. Then he released his views which the establishment took as controversy.
He is even smart enough to let the other guys spread his message for him.

Do you give up yet?

heartwarthog says

what is more shocking is two third of primary GOP voters supports his proposal of blocking Muslims

He started the conversation that the dems and establishment repubs won't touch-how do you deal with radical islam??

FortWayne says

Dan8267 says

If you got that, then your reading comprehension is low. This thread is about how supporting Trump is a strong metric of stupidity, not Trump's chances of winning.

That's just your thinking Dan. Everyone else already figured out that Trump is a better choice than a feminazi Hillary.

Another easily demonstrated false statement.

When actual money is own the line, The math is clear: Hillary Clinton has better odds of becoming president than anybody else — by far

And from Odds Shark
Hillary Clinton -140
Donald Trump +650

In case you don't know how to read odds, that means you'd have to bet $140 to win $100 if Hilary wins and you'd have to bet $100 to win $650 if Trump wins because he's a long shot. Instead of verbally masturbating, how about you put your life savings on Trump? Money talks, bullshit walks.

But hey, don't let the facts dissuade you from your delusions. If you keep saying Trump is going to win that will make it true because, um, because, well, because JESUS! Yeah, that's how elections work, just like saving Tinkerbell's life. After all, reality follows The Consensus from White Wolf.

Liberals understand why geeks would camp in line for two weeks to get the latest iPhone or to see the latest movie but cannot fathom why people would do the same to have a chance to make their damaged Nation great again.

I noticed that Dan's little odds chart had Biden in third place, despite Biden's complete and total bowing out from the race. Pretty great chart that still ranks Biden third! And Jeb fourth? Really? Someone whose numbers are down around 4% of just his party? Okay the mystical Vegas bookies must really have some fucking crystal balls of brass because several of those more certain possibilities are impossible!
Either that or they're just as flawed as everyone else trying to predict the future. Nice try tho, Dan. But actually, no, that try wasn't great after all. It's been done already, on this site even.

Hmm, If I was calling the odds I'd have it
1)Hillary 42%
2)Trump: 40%
3)Rubio: 30%
4)Sanders: 22%

Quigley says

Okay the mystical Vegas bookies must really have some fucking crystal balls of brass because several of those more certain possibilities are impossible!

Either that or they're just as flawed as everyone else trying to predict the future.

Ironman says

Quigley says

Nice try tho, Dan. But actually, no, that try wasn't great after all.

Ahhh, Dan gets a smackdown...

Quigley says

Hmm, If I was calling the odds I'd have it

1)Hillary 42%

2)Trump: 40%

3)Rubio: 30%

4)Sanders: 22%

If you honestly believe that, then you should wager heavily on Trump. Given the odds at booking sites, you'd make a fortune even with hedging your bets. Somehow, I doubt you'll put your money where your mouth is.

When money is on the line, businesses tend to be very accurate on the odds. Otherwise, they wouldn't stay in business. And if the odds are wrong, anyone could make low-risk, high-return bets just by betting on multiple candidates who are undervalued just like you would in the stock market.

Ironman says

Instead of complaining, CIC, next time just lube up the horse's dick with K-Y jelly first.

Ironman says

Anybody see Bernie around here???

Makes perfect sense. Although Bernie could easily defeat ANY Republican candidate, he's not likely to defeat Hilary in the Primary. If he does, then the betting sites will place him as most likely to win the election. At this point, Hilary still seems inevitable.

anonymous says

This year, Trump has done better than anyone has thought he'd do, and the one consistent lesson of the election so far has been that we shouldn't underestimate him.

With zero percent of the vote in, even for primaries, Trump actually hasn't done anything. Only when the votes are cast does popularity matter. Until then, doing well is meaningless.

I don't think Hillary will win-Billy Boy yes-but this is one slimy disgusting holier than thou critter who flips flop on everything and doesn't have the qualities of Billy boy-she will go down in flames.

Against jeb bush or Rubio-she has a good chance-not against trump-he is a master.

The left-you don't agree with me you are unqualified to vote, run for office, be a president of a university yada yada yada.

Not.

Dan8267 says

Another easily demonstrated false statement.

When actual money is own the line, The math is clear: Hillary Clinton has better odds of becoming president than anybody else — by far

By your own words.

Dan8267 says

With zero percent of the vote in, even for primaries, Trump My chart actually hasn't done anything means nothing. Only when the votes are cast does popularity matter. Until then, doing well is meaningless.

heartwarthog says

what is more shocking is two third of primary GOP voters supports his proposal of blocking Muslims...

Why would it be shocking? Everyone understands that proposals like that would probably just end up banning terrorist countries, not just muslims from other places.

We need to get with the times, our biggest threat is from the middle east... Being PC about it isn't going to stop them from trying to kill us.

On that same note of cause and effect, I propose the following theorem of US political science, the presidential kind:

THEOREM: In order for a US president to enact any meaningful social change, the goodness of the change must be balanced by a sufficient amount of evil deeds.

EXAMPLES:

1. Lyndon B. Johnson gets Civil RIghts and Medicare enacted, but has to balance that by being externally "tough on socialism and communism". The net result is 50k dead American soldiers and 1M dead citizens of Vietnam.

2. Barack Obama gets ACA (Obamacare) enacted, but has to balance that by being "tough on islamists(*)", not prosecuting criminal banksters on Wall St, supporting the TPP trade agreement, and more.

CORROLARY: The Democratic party will rather lose the presidential election, and thereby enable unspeakable evil, than give up some insignificant pet policy goal.

EXAMPLE:

1. Gay marriage in 2000 election. Was touting gay marriage worth losing to George W. Bush? I think not. For the record: I'm not against gay marriage. I think gay marriage will be an excellent lever for enacting true equality in hetero marriage, instead of the current system which give a man all the obligations and a woman all the rights. But was the principled stand for gay marriage worth losing the election over? No, I do not think so.

(*) I was going to say "muslimists", but not sure everyone understands the joke against propaganda language yet.

The detail provided by the poll is scant, but Wiki says that in 2014, 16.81% of Americans had a graduate degree. The poll indicates that perhaps 22% of Trump's supporters have a graduate degree. The graph does not break out college degree from some college, but according to Wiki, 22% of Americans earned a bachelor's degree. One interpretation of the graph is that about 27% of Trump voters have a bachelor's degree.

So Trump is doing well among the college educated. It may be that relatively uneducated Americans are feeling the effects of illegal alien job competition. A review of the history of US federal immigration laws indicates that preventing competition from low wage workers was the motivation of many of the immigration laws.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Educational_attainment_in_the_United_States

My take:

The number of true Free Markeeters is declining among working class white males. Randroids are more common in the upper middle class tech workers and financial types.

Working class and increasingly middle class guys want an end to mass immigration, H1-Bs, and more and better paying jobs, and have no problem dumping the "Free" trade deals. It's the Randroids and the Big Business Republicans and the Mainstream Democrats who are diehards about unlimited movement of people and capital and goods.

Less and less people give two shits about abortion. The Religious Right is a spent force, declining in numbers and power year after year, it was a Boomer Jesus Freak Phenomenon that peaked around 2000. Mainstream churches are taking back ex-evangelicals left and right.

While some older working class whites don't like teh Gays, they're more worried about job security and immigration.

Hillary's unfavorable rating is just as high as Trump, but with one important difference: She's already lead a failed Obamneycare plan in the 90s, was a Senator, and was Sec. of State - voters know what they're going to get. Trump has never held office.

In terms of perceived honesty, they're about the same.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2307

Obama in 2008 was a likable, affable, AND respectable sort of fellow (after Bush the Goofy) who said all the right things about banks, America, etc. plus he would be the FIRST BLACK PRES!! He ran against McCain-Palin, both of whom are the butt of jokes.

In 2012 Obama ran against a corporate suit when the financial crisis was on everybody's radar screen. Even Republicans wiped off the slime every time he got near.

Iowa doesn't matter much because it has too many "Back to the Land" ex-Jesus Freaks. This is the state where Santorum came in second by a hair behind Romney and got double digit percentages, which he did not come close to doing in any other primary in 2012. New Hampshire is more of a bellweather.

I would propose that Trump is already seen as an Independent Surge Candidate more than a Republican. He certainly isn't the GOP Establishment choice, or the choice of the Religious Right, or the choice of Big Business.

Read your Machiavelli folks. It's better to be loved than feared, but better to be feared than be perceived as a fool.

TL;DR:

Trump is the unlooked for result of the Republican Bene-Geserit Breeding Program.

The Propaganda was just supposed to get the nasty unwashed white working class out to vote, now it's backfired on them royally.

"Silence! Remember my Trump-Jabbar, Ailes-Limbaugh. I can kill with a word!"

I guess when the rubber hits the road all Liberals have is their Lies about what their Man Flint did for them.

Ironman says

She DIDN'T accomplish anything in her last two gigs as a government employee

She did delete all those emails.

thunderlips11 says

Hillary's unfavorable rating is just as high as Trump, but with one important difference: She's already lead a failed Obamneycare plan in the 90s, was a Senator, and was Sec. of State - voters know what they're going to get. Trump has never held office.

Her foreign policy credentials are a disaster. Gaddafi/Libya, the Iraq war, ISIS.

A lot of women will vote for her. A lot of Democrat knuckle draggers. The Free Shit Army. All of the gender identity disorder crowd and sympathizers. Bankers will rejoice. Arms suppliers will rejoice.

OR were you just trolling? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

Blurtman says

Why do moron Democrats never admit that their candidates and party are wrong and not competent?

Obama is wrong and even worse than incompetent. He's evil. I'll take incompetent over evil any day.

Now, show yourself not to be an utter hypocrite and say the same about Bush, Cheney, and Trump. Otherwise, my next statement stands unchallenged. As bad as Democrats are, they are orders of magnitude better than Republicans because whereas Democrats do bad things due to incompetence and pettiness, Republicans are actively trying to destroy the world for profit.

Unless you can meet the challenge of admitting the evils of your party, your opinion does not mean shit. It's like a person who cannot criticize the Nazis for anything major expressing an opinion of Israel.

I want somebody who will start switching us away from the MENA and towards Russia as an ally. The distance between Long Beach and Vladivostok, or Newark and Archangel, is shorter and safer than the trip from Long Beach to Ras Tanurah. And you only have to deal with one nation instead of a dozen. AND you will have a a block of Allies that runs the entire World Circumference in the Northern Hemisphere: a massive amount of the World's Land Mass and Developed Nations. It will ensure Western dominance for at least another century. And because all of these countries are middling to high income, we could have fairly free trade between them all with a minimum of fuss, especially if we nationalized the cost of health care.

Somebody who will bring back some protectionism, change corporate taxation to territorial, and get our ass to Mars. And preserve the Western Culture, and allow a soft population drop to ensure widespread employment, lower rents, and a better standard of living.

That definitely isn't Hillary, or Lindsey Graham.

Dan8267 says

Now, show yourself not to be an utter hypocrite and say the same about Bush,

Shrub!? He was the worst president the USA ever elected, and incomprehensibly, twice! Cheney is an evil man, and he, Shrub, Wolfowitz, Rice, and many more should be doing time for war crimes. Look , we killed civilians which (we knew would happen) for a lie. And then there was Abu Ghraib, and the killing of news people, and the shredding of innocent civilians mistaken to be armed combatants, use of white phosphorous as a weapon, military assassin squads, etc.

My party is the Democrat party, BTW. I have never voted Republican in my life. I was duped into voting for Obama the first time, but realized the betrayal after the appointments of Geithner and Summers, and the continual lies about the banks committing no crimes. I wrote-in William K. Black the second time, and if Hillary is the candidate, will write-in Bernie or Warren.

I believe the entire system needs to be torn down, but will be happy with a trust buster president as a start.

thunderlips11 says

I want somebody who will start switching us away from the MENA and towards Russia as an ally.

Hard to do considering the history, and entrenched interests whose money and fame are tied to being anti-Russia. The USA and Russia were allies in WW2, as well as the USA and China. I believe Russia lost the most people during WW2, but of course, the USA won the war.

Blurtman says

Dan8267 says

Now, show yourself not to be an utter hypocrite and say the same about Bush,

Shrub!? He was the worst president the USA ever elected, and incomprehensibly, twice!

Actually, he was only elected the second time, but thanks for at least admitting how terrible those Republicans were. There's hope for you yet.

That said, until all the evil done by the Bush administration is undone and those who profited from that evil have their assets seized, no sane person would tolerate another Republican. There is a price to pay for overturning an election, starting a false war, torturing people, and disregarding basic human and civil rights. The price is that the Republican Party can no longer be tolerated.

Quigley says

If somebody Dares post or say that black lives don't matter more than any other lives

that's dishonestly misstating what they BLM protest movement is about!

or that inviting more Muslims into the country might not be the best idea

alienating the entire muslim world seems like a good idea to dumbass conservatives, but since you guys are wrong about everything, guess what, you're obviously, and blindingly wrong about that, too.

ISIS shitheads want to cut off the islamic world from us. If you think that's a good idea, you're as backwards and morally empty as they are.

the media jumps all over them and calls them racist, as if that is the worst thing that one could be.

So much of the human stupidity of the past 100-odd years is due to racism -- in its flavors of bigotry, chauvinism, and prejudice. It really fucked up the Germans and
Japanese when these proud nations wrote racist checks their "Race" couldn't cash.

Intolerance of other ideas

I have a high intolerance of bullshit, which is what conservativism is these days, couple of steps below Amway on the scam scale.

and dogmatic adherence to fantasy is the hallmark of liberal ideology. Anything that comes close to reality is castigated, attacked, and banned.

Bullshit. Conservatives are the ones living in a closed epistemology, not "liberals".

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/09/14/how-the-party-of-stupid-birthed-trump-and-carson.html

FortWayne says

Democrats always want to spend more, and Republicans want to lower taxes. Democrats need to spend less, and the problem is solved. It's how every household budgets, you don't spend what you don't have. Deficits skyrocketing? Stop spending, it's simple! Blaming Republicans on this is silly, they aren't the once spending the money.

I know that's the lie that your puppet masters want you to believe, but it's 100% incorrect. It absolutely IS Republicans spending the money. Reagan and Bush II increased the budget more than any Dem. President could dream of doing. You really need to wake up and realize what's going on.

Dan,
That's an insult. I'm a dumb ass but I'll not vote for Trumpeter.

Everything is so FUBAR that I've gone by the point of caring.

Ironman says

Isn't time for you to post one of your disingenuous charts showing 8 years of spending for a Repub president versus 3 or 4 years of Obamas?

Only if you don't know what disingenuous means. Using the most up to date charts I could find isn't disingenuous.

If you have more up to date charts, please post them. They will agree with me.

Ironman says

Right, when you know the chart only covers half of his term so far, but you'll still use it as a comparison to 8 years of a previous administration, hoping no one will notice....

Why are you liberals such liars?

I expect people to notice. Doesn't change the fact that Reagan and Bush II increased spending far, far, far more than Obama on a YOY basis.

Feel free to post any data showing that Obama has increased spending more than Bush II or Reagan.

Ironman says

That's not what your buddy said, go back and read it again, this time for comprehension!

And why do I care what "my buddy" (whoever that is) wrote? You said I'm a liar and I'm saying feel free to post something, anything that backs that assertion.

thunderlips11 says

The Propaganda was just supposed to get the nasty unwashed white working class out to vote, now it's backfired on them royally.

THIS.

lol--I should have expected as much from someone as ill-versed in math as you.

Here's how you should do the analysis:

Reagan-- 50% increase in spending
Bush II-- 50% increase in spending
Obama-- 24% increase in spending

Ironman says

LOL, how did I know you were going to play the percentage game... OK, I'll play too!!

Because it's the proper way to do the analysis.

Notwithstanding that you don't know how to calculate a percentage change (hint--you don't subtract), you've now completely changed the subject. We were talking about spending increases. Now, if you agree that Bush II and Reagan were much bigger spenders than Obama or Clinton were, then we can move on and discuss
the debt/GDP and Federal debt charts you posted. So, you agree?