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Bellingham Bill
2015 May 22, 11:39pm
I used to think the boomers would have to liquidate their holdings starting now, putting selling pressure on the market.
But Gen Y is bigger than the boomers, and they're buyers now, along with a lot bigger global middle class than existed 30-odd years ago.
There doesn't have to be an "end" if nothing is going hyperbolic or otherwise is unsustainable.
The rise of Alt-A lending 2003-2007 was a textbook case of the unsustainable eventually failing, something that an absolute idiot should have seen coming by 2005.
I saw the outlines, but it was only the Casey Serin case breaking in late 2006 that educated me on how much outright fraud was going on in the mortgage sector.
No way an unemployed fuckstick like him should have been able to borrow $2M to acquire his real estate empire, but there it was.
The top 5% taking 33% of the national income is perhaps unsustainable, but we need better modelling of the long-run to more fully understand what is going on with that.
Watch for a Black Swan on a moonless night & one may still not see it.
Is the bubble in stocks or in bonds?
I think both. I sort of have a sense of an ending. I think that the 35-year bull market in bonds and in stocks is ending. Now, when you say something like that, it conjures up a crash. It doesn’t have to be that way. It probably ends, like T. S. Eliot said, with a whimper and not a bang.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/24/magazine/bill-gross-thinks-the-end-is-near.html?mabReward=CTM&action=click&pgtype=Homepage®ion=CColumn&module=Recommendation&src=rechp&WT.nav=RecEngine