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Los Angeles and San Francisco - houses are overvalued by around 16%


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2014 Mar 24, 5:18am   8,470 views  12 comments

by jojo   ➕follow (2)   💰tip   ignore  

US house prices
Realty check
Feb 27th 2014, 14:16 by Economist.com

Our interactive guide to America’s housing market

TWO years after house prices ended their precipitous fall, housing across America is beginning to look frothy again. New data released by Standard & Poor’s on February 25th showed the Case-Shiller index of 20 cities rising in December at the fastest rate for nine years. Although the rate of house-price inflation slowed slightly compared with the previous month, in part due to the bitterly cold weather and higher mortgage rates, prices in some cities continued to increase. In Chicago, house prices rose at their fastest rate since 1988. Could America be in the midst of another housing bubble?

To test this possibility, The Economist has compared house prices with the rental cost of housing and with median household income. If over the long-run house prices rise at a faster rate than either of these two measures, it suggests that either rents or incomes must rise, or house prices must fall. When we last published our data in June 2013, house prices looked to be at or below fair value compared with rents (meaning within 10% of the long-run average) in all but two cities. Nine months later, six cities lie outside that boundary. In the frothiest places—Denver, Los Angeles and San Francisco—houses are overvalued by around 16%.

Explanation:
This interactive chart allows readers to compare the ups and downs of America's 20 main housing markets tracked by Standard & Poor’s. The data begin in 1987 for 14 cities, extending to 20 from 2000 onwards. The Economist has augmented the index by comparing the data against household income and housing rents. There are five different measures in total:
• House-price index – rebased to 100 at a selected date and in nominal terms only.
• Prices in real terms – again rebased to 100 for the selected date, but the index is deflated by consumer prices to take account of the effects of inflation on purchasing power.
• Prices against average income – compares house prices against median incomes in each city, rebased to 100 at the selected date.
• Prices against rents – compares the relationship between the costs of buying and renting, rebased to 100 at the selected date.
• Percentage change (in real terms) – shows the increase or decrease in real prices between two selected dates.

Notes:
The data presented are quarterly, aggregated from monthly indices. When comparing data across cities, the interactive chart will only display the range of dates available for all the cities selected. The metropolitan areas for which rent and income data were available did not always correspond precisely to the areas for home prices; in those cases, we chose the closest spatial area. Median household income data are only available to November 2012. We have extrapolated the data to March 2013 based on the 12-month trend growth rate.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2014/02/us-house-prices?page=1

#housing

Comments 1 - 12 of 12        Search these comments

1   zzyzzx   2014 Mar 24, 5:25am  

Only 16%?

2   mmmarvel   2014 Mar 24, 5:45am  

zzyzzx says

Only 16%?

No, more like 116%, or is it 216% - impossible to fathom paying as much as is being asked (and paid) for such nasty little run down chicken coups.

3   exfatguy   2014 Mar 24, 6:56am  

To even begin to compete in the bay area you need to earn $300,000 per year, either by yourself, or as a couple.

Anything less than that you're here solely to service someone that does.

4   gsr   2014 Mar 24, 7:06am  

exfatguy says

To even begin to compete in the bay area you need to earn $300,000 per year, either by yourself, or as a couple.

Anything less than that you're here solely to service someone that does.

This is what I don't understand. I have not seen a reason why so many companies or people would like to live in the Bay Area. A cubicle jockey does not get enough time (or money in Bay Area standard) to enjoy weather. This just feels like hysteresis.

5   humanity   2014 Mar 24, 8:31am  

uhhh....sadly it feels like an extreme, but not because everyone is bullish and buying, it's because nobody is selling,... either because they are stuck, or because they live there, or possibly because they are bullish (but that's the third most likely reason, so not a good contrarian argument).

6   hrhjuliet   2014 Mar 31, 3:32pm  

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

Or 1600% if you compound each household that was savaged since 1974 by criminally insane banksters and mortgage companies driving valuation hysteria to full-bore group seizures.

Right?

7   bg   2014 Mar 31, 4:48pm  

If you go to his user profile, it says he has 0 comments. I thought maybe he got in trouble with Patrick. Weird. It is kinda like what happened with Roberto.

8   bubblesitter   2014 Apr 1, 3:45am  

Come out, come out, jojo. :)

9   bg   2014 Apr 1, 3:25pm  

I wonder what was up with that. He seemed to have a pretty clear opinion and seemed to enjoy expressing it. Then, poof, he was gone.

10   Ceffer   2014 Apr 1, 4:03pm  

Mom probably kicked him out of the basement and took away his internet privileges.

11   hanera   2014 Apr 2, 12:04pm  

RE market in SFBA, Austin and tech hubs suddenly become hot aka RE sold very fast. Any explanations why the sudden 'hotness'? Just the usual Spring heat? Would it last?

12   bubblesitter   2014 Apr 3, 12:21am  

The Professor says

I hope he is enjoying his wealth in some tropical paradise, or at least a third world resort with nice weather.

Roberto?

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