patrick.net

Logan Mohtashami says

don't believe it should ever be looked as an investment for a primary resident buyer.

Unfortunately, the case is exactly opposite. Every single primary resident buyer thinks he/she can buy and make a hefty profit few years down the road - only because there are loads of people ready to pay for that profit loaded shack when time comes to sell.

Every year it goes higher that capacity for gain becomes less and less when more inventory comes to market.. leaves a big gap lower for the next job loss recession

Zandi works at Moodys, a criminal organization responsible for the economic meltdown. Sure, let's believe him.

bubblesitter says

Unfortunately, the case is exactly opposite. Every single primary resident buyer thinks he/she can buy and make a hefty profit few years down the road - only because there are loads of people ready to pay for that profit loaded shack when time comes to sell.

Nice generalization, but as with all generalizations - not necessarily true. I bought in 2011 (not in CA) as someplace where my rent won't go up (at the landlords whim - although property taxes seem to keep raising it). At this point in my life (and at earlier points) I've NEVER bought with the idea to sell later at a higher price. The times I have sold (in one case after 10 plus years, in another after 10 plus years, in another after 3 years) each and every sale did make a profit, but that was NOT the reason I bought in the first place or sold in the second place. At this moment in time I figuring on staying here until they cart my body out the door. Circumstances have taught me that that my change, but I didn't buy with selling at a profit in my mind. And YES, I got a pretty good deal on my house.

A house is an investment that you live in, as witnessed by the profit / loss that is incurred upon the sale.

Call it Crazy says

I had a couple of winners and losers. In one winning case, the house doubled in price in 2-1/2 years... In one loser, we lost $35K after 8 years...

My first house, I bought on assumable mortgage at a mere 9.5% interest and this was when Carter's USA had pushed rates to 13% or higher. We lived there for about 10 years, refinanced it once for a lower rate and sold it for almost twice what we'd paid, but remember, inflation was a large part of that 'profit'. We sold because Mama said the house was too small; happy wife, happy life (an old and not necessarily true saying).

The second house we bought because it was a pretty good deal. Lived there about 10 years, sold it for $40K more than we paid for it. Moved due to job lose and economy collapse (the one in 2001). Got divorced a couple years after that.

Third house was a trailer. Yup, a 20 year old double wide. Served it's purpose, paid cash when we bought it. Sold it in 2009 when the economy was tanking for $3k more than we paid. Again, the reason we sold was another job lay off. This time we left the state (sold virtually everything and lived with a relative for 5 months while looking for a job).

This last buy was in my new city. Appear to have bought at the bottom of the price cycle. Got a good interest rate. Zillow has the house appreciating at a goodly rate, but all that means to me is IF I have to sell, I'd get more than I paid for it. I'm getting old and HOPE I won't have to move again. My employer is the city and while there have been layoffs, they are infrequent and typically far between.

Logan Mohtashami says

Every year it goes higher that capacity for gain becomes less and less when more inventory comes to market.. leaves a big gap lower for the next job loss recession

Are you saying prices never go down except recession?

bubblesitter says

Are you saying prices never go down except recession?

No and actually, I had been documenting on a lot homes where prices have gone down last year.

Model to Model matches ... first 4-5 months of 2013 sold higher than what they sold for in the last 6 months of the year. I have seen that in many cases here in Orange County CA.

In fact that would be the best thing for housing right now.

What I was referring to is that higher and higher prices go with this low inventory cycle, the more at risk the new buyers will be and you don't need a recession for a price delcine

Logan Mohtashami says

Model to Model matches ...

That's how it should be cuz all this general talk of median(or whatever) prices going up and down does not mean anything.

I will give a good example

4/2013 Followed a 2 bedroom condo in Irvine CA Sold for $490,000, multiple bids, good traffic.

Then rates rose and that exact model in the same neighborhood went on market for $489,900 in 10 days only had 10K reduction in price, traffic was awful. It eventually sold for $475,000.

So, it's nothing too big but I can see model to model matches sold for less and are listing for less.

@logan mohtashami

Hey Logan ive been following your posts here and on your blog.
Just wanted to pick your brain regarding north orange county market.
Im a first time buyer and recently started looking. PRices seems to have risen dramatically in the last year here in northern OC.
Do you feel this will continue in this area? What are you thoughts on future inventory and do you have any price predictions for the next year or two specific for northern OC? (I know you said prices may slightly rise, but I wasnt sure if you thought the same for northern OC).
Im on the fence about buying because there is nothing great out here. Im torn between buying something decent now or risk waiting for something better but being forced to pay much more due to rising prices...

THanks and I welcome any one else to comment as well...

Mike

Orange County has always been used as my main county in terms of home prices rising without any real connection to REAL economic reality.

It's the same in a lot areas in California,
- Inventory low
- interest rates low
- Cash buyer heavy

What I have seen here in So Cal and you can see it in the numbers is that cash buyer is slowly leaving, especially the cash investor and sales got impacted.

Northern O.C. as you know isn't Middle or Southern O.C. but the same dynamics are at play. So, my advice to you is the same I always.

Housing is the cost of shelter to your own capacity to own that debt. If that monthly payment PITI ( Total Payment) works for you and your budget then that is the main thing you should be looking at.

I believe it would be great for the O.C. for prices to go down but I am not sure that will happen come spring with inventory going to be low.

However, for sure 2013 will be the peak year of home appreciation in this cycle, we won't see the repeat of what we saw in the first half of 2013 and 2nd half of 2012. It was truly insane. If you ever want to talk feel free to contact me at anytime

@logan Mohtashami

THanks for the advice.

In your opinion, what will cause inventory to rise? Is there anything in the horizon that you can see that will cause inventory to go up?

Also do you see much of a difference among the lower vs higher prices ranges of homes?

Thanks for the offer. Id love to chat with you some time and pick your brain even more. What would be the best way to contact you?

Thanks

Just call anytime you like 949-291-8293