patrick.net

This article reminds me of one of these housing myths in 2006. http://money.cnn.com/2006/08/24/real_estate/pluggedin_tully.fortune/

I smell a lot of bullshit brewing in the housing market. Bennie wants some movement making mortgages somehow even cheaper! LOL.

When will they realize it's not an affordability issue in the main, other than places like California, it's a CONFIDENCE ISSUE!

Call it Crazy says

I'd like to know who does this "seasonal adjusting" and what methodology they use? It seems lately that numbers get "massaged" more than an Asian massage parlor.

Come on now, this is nothing new.

You should see how the Chinese massage there own figures!

Call it Crazy says

I'd like to know who does this "seasonal adjusting" and what methodology they use? It seems lately that numbers get "massaged" more than an Asian massage parlor.

what about whites' obsession for "escort" services, Las Vegas, Reno Nevada, San Fernando Valley as the porn capital of the world, Europe's age of consent as low as 12 (LOL WTF?) and the Catholic church's "adoration" of young boys which you, being a republican, should know about more than I do.

no one beats whites when it comes to sexual perversion.

121212 says

You should see how the Chinese massage there own figures!

the same way the U.S gov has been massaging its CPI?

Mark D says

the same the U.S gov has been massaging its CPI?

Yeah your right, but we are the world currency reserve so expect the fiddle is on.

You forget, the USA is about "do as I say" "not do as I do" or god help you!

121212 says

Mark D says

the same the U.S gov has been massaging its CPI?

Yeah your right, but we are the world currency reserve so expect the fiddle is on.

that's only OK short-term. when another currency replaces the USD, the more US dollars a foreign country has, the more they will contribute to the inflation in the U.S.

Mark D says

that's only OK short-term. when another currency replaces the USD, the more US dollars a foreign country has, the more they will contribute to the inflation in the U.S.

Hence the 33% devaluation of the Dollar over 20 years, the Fed announced this in February 2012.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/charleskadlec/2012/02/06/the-federal-reserves-explicit-goal-devalue-the-dollar-33/

121212 says

Mark D says

that's only OK short-term. when another currency replaces the USD, the more US dollars a foreign country has, the more they will contribute to the inflation in the U.S.

Hence the 33% devaluation of the Dollar over 20 years, the Fed announced this in February 2012.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/charleskadlec/2012/02/06/the-federal-reserves-explicit-goal-devalue-the-dollar-33/

more reason to buy a house?

Interesting how dropping interest rates has added a trillion wealth on paper. That trillion?, that's your inflation. All things being equal, what has changed in the last year?, they are still the same old houses they were a year ago but with different price tags.

The problem with all this? The fed thinks housing is a capitalist profit based function of the economy when really it's just a roof over your head. With investors monopolizing rents, stagnating wages, the middle and lower classes will continue to be slaughtered to the point where disposable income becomes naught.

AND .. in a couple of years when it all starts to unwind again, after blowing bubbles, increasing asset prices, which just increases credit, causing spending to get out of control that much faster, etc. the fed will start bailing, making excuses, and we can start the process all over again.

Mark D says

more reason to buy a house?

Perhaps another in 2015

Call it Crazy says

From today's report...

from the same source your graph cited, i found this article which claims housing recovery is SUSTAINED. maybe you need reading glasses.

"Sustained Recovery in Home Prices
According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
New York, December 26, 2012 – Data through October 2012, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for
its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed home prices rose
4.3% in the 12 months ending in October in the 20-City Composite, out-distancing analysts’ forecasts.

http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/articles/en/us/?articleType=PDF&assetID=1245345601476

HousingBoom says

This article reminds me of one of these housing myths in 2006. http://money.cnn.com/2006/08/24/real_estate/pluggedin_tully.fortune/

My favorite line:

"Today, real 10-year rates are still extremely low. They have nowhere to go but up. When the one-time gain of 2001-2004 reverses, housing prices could take a further hit."

(this was in 2006, when rates were 6-7%)

Mark D says

that's only OK short-term. when another currency replaces the USD, the more US dollars a foreign country has, the more they will contribute to the inflation in the U.S.

No other currency will replace the USD as the reserve currency during our lifetimes. There are only three candidates, and they're all fantasy land bullshit:

- Euro: Not going to happen after that clusterfuck of a debt debacle. This currency probably won't even exist in 20 years.

- RMB: The probability of wealthy countries accepting china as the world's reserve is exactly zero. The only countries who want this are China and its dictatorship allies.

- "Basket of currencies": Pure academic masturbation fantasy. It's a theoretical instrument and not something that you can actually plan for, and every time it's brought up people who actually deal with these issues just smile and nod.

Call it Crazy says

Now, look at the bottom number on Oct./Sept. NSA vs SA... bigger spread..

So.... if the same methodology is used each month, why the differences?

first, Logic 101: you cannot attack the credibility of a source (faulty methodology) and at the same time cite it to support another argument (there is a difference in the spreads). this is faulty logic.

in other words, if don't trust the source, how do you know the difference in the spreads is even real?

second, the spread is bigger in Oct/Sept data because the typical rate of purchases in Oct is lower than that of September and September's rate is lower is than that of Augusts. let me know if you need help understanding this.

Call it Crazy says

My point is, why seasonally adjust at all?? Just report the numbers. We know sales drop off in the fall, that's not a secret. Is it that tough to get the sales numbers and report the actual numbers. What are we keeping, two sets of books??

If you are trying to make meaningful comparisons for month over month changes in the presence of seasonal patterns, it's quite helpful to account for the seasonal patterns. If the seasonal pattern isn't easily modeled (or of someone alters the model to suit their agenda) then it's not as helpful.

Month over month comparisons need the seasonal adjustment to be readily meaningful, especially to the general public who doesn't just "know" the seasonal trends. Year over year, sure..throw out the seasonal adjustment, but MoM needs it. The more seasonal the thing you are tracking, the more important it is.

Call it Crazy says

My point is, why seasonally adjust at all??

no that wasn't your point. THIS was your point:

So.... if the same methodology is used each month, why the differences?

Call it Crazy says

My issue is that the SA numbers are the ones that are "advertised", but you have to go dig real deep for the NSA... it's like the best kept secret..

how come you never complained about the unemployment numbers which are seasonally adjusted UP all the time?