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CL
2012 Nov 5, 5:55am
Well, on the other side of the spectrum is Dick Morris. One time Clinton loyalist turned hater is now predicting Romney will win by a landslide and get 325 electoral votes. What is his story-did he make a pass at Hillary and she shot him down?
Dick Morris? He's exactly what he appears to be...a fat troll with a penchant for whores and toes. He's your creepy drunken uncle.
He's also really a creepy Republican who pretended to have Democratic leanings but succeeded in injecting some conservatism into Billy's tenure.
CL
2012 Nov 5, 7:27am
Nate Silver also gave Sharon Angle a 75% chance of winning in the election of 2010:
He probably factored in too many Rasmussen polls.
msilenus
2012 Nov 5, 8:21am
No. Reid looked like a gonner in 2010. His win was a major upset. It was probably because of his political machine in and around Vegas. As I understand it, he helped build a union for kitchen workers (overwhelmingly staffed by Hispanics who vote overwhelmingly Democratic) and organizes huge get out the vote campaigns around it. In 2010, it distorted turnout enough to break pollster LV models.
Reid 2010 is a lesson in how local factors and ground game can skew the results away from the polls. That assuredly happens less than 25% of the time when polling is as consistent as Angle's was.
Silver's confidence interval for the Presidential election is tuned to how far off the polls have been historically. A decent way to read his result today is that "historically, only 14% of the time have polls missed their mark by enough for Romney to win."
CL
2012 Nov 5, 8:47am
It was probably because of his political machine in and around Vegas.
Could be. I seem to recall Angle doing plenty of things to irritate the Hispanics, even without any machine. I think they were undersampled, and the pollsters were shocked that they came out in such large numbers.
Look out Colorado! That's why its going blue again this year, despite the polls.
CL
2012 Nov 8, 2:10am
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http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/robert-schlesinger/2012/10/31/mitt-romneys-electoral-problem-and-the-war-on-nate-silver
"But let's be clear on something: Conservatives might dislike and disagree with the numbers Silver is pushing, he is not alone in pushing them. There are in fact several Web sites and/or scholars who push statistical models aimed at making similar estimates about who will be the next president, and they all give an edge to President Obama. The Princeton Election Consortium, run by Professor Sam Wang, projects Obama pulling in 303 electoral votes, for example; Votamatic, which is run by Drew Linzer, a professor at Emory and Stanford, predicts 332 electoral votes for Obama; Real Clear Politics's "No Toss Up States" map gives Obama 281 electoral votes. (Huffington Post's Pollster.com gives Obama a base of 253 electoral votes and leads in five of toss-up states as compared with 206 electoral votes and a single toss-up state lead for Romney.) And the major online betting markets all give Obama pretty good odds of re-election (Intrade puts it at 63.3 percent chance, and Betfair says 68 percent)."
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