patrick.net

I just visited today with a new resident of California. She is the illegitimate daughter of my illegal alien female friend. These are called "anchor babies".
Her mother is a high school dropout who is barely literate in two languages.
Neither baby nor her mother will ever be productive and pay in taxes a portion of how much society will pay to keep them going.
Just when baby was born cost us a fortune: mommy had to have an emergency C-section birth to protect the baby for some reason.
The cost of that baby's prenatal and childbirth cost California taxpayers over $50,000. Mommy had minor surgery also during pregnancy.
What does this have to do with houses in California you say? EVERYTHING. These people are going to continue to bankrupt the state. Doubt me? Go look at maps of foreclosures in alien landing grounds: Modesto, Stockton, Fresno. The same is true in Arizona.

Pineapple, you're totally missing his point. Yes, the population is always growing (at least so far), but what Mish is focusing on is the house-buying age group. HE says it is shrinking, that is all.

So sure there are tons of babies being born, but are you telling me that these babies are buying houses? Not yet, but they will 25-35 years from now.

tdeloco

Excellent point. Further, considering the unemployment rate amoung the young I would not be expecting them to buy homes even then.

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says

Housing is supposed to appreciate at 100% per year - guaranteed!

Ask any Realtor® if you can get their attention while they're fisting you.

lol, funny but true.

"but what Mish is focusing on is the house-buying age group. HE says it is shrinking, that is all."

Exactly, kids getting out of college and then moving back home with parents or never moving out at all. Not just younger ones, those caught later in life with no jobs, not old enough for the safety nets combining with elderly parents.

Household consolidation, a way to cope with declining employment and incomes. Less houses needed, prices fall. So simple even a Realtor can understand it.

“get a job! ANd come back and buy million dollar 3/2s in BA like the prosperity-loving Chinese!” APOCOLYPSEFUCK I used to think you were crazy but I see now you are ON THE MONEY BOOMBA! I can see you will soon be a landLORD like myself, buy houses + rent them out = RICH TYCOON! Simple really, these doomers are missing the boat.

duckhead says

“get a job! ANd come back and buy million dollar 3/2s in BA like the prosperity-loving Chinese!”

A+ or GTFO!

no way! the illegal aliens are job creators

if she had not come here to have a baby - the doctor/hospital/nurses would be out 50k of income that they used to buy million dollar 3/2's (to flip to other doctors back and forth each time adding 200k in price).

thats how CA works.

Prices here are extreme. Now that I am in the process of moving back here-wow-sticker shock again. I have been going around as a consultant, mostly different parts of the midwest and the south. The climate is better here, but the salaries-not that much of a difference. In fact I was once offered a contract gig in S.F, for less than what I was being paid in Missouri. I mean, come on!

But the housing is still double, triple or worse and I really don't know how to justify it. perhaps all the oldies who got their houses way back then and are paying miniscule amounts in taxes and their descendants-who I beleive the tax rate rolls over to- refuse to sell no matter what and so the rest of us are stuck buying/selling to each other?

Prices need to come down to reflect reality. I think they will. I am very tempted to stay in other places-same pay and 1/3rd the price for housing and not much of a commute-but all my friends and most of family in CA and I do miss it. A man's got to have a home. Let's see-prices haven't shot up, despite the lowest mortgage rates in recent history-so a little climb in the rate, might just shake things up.

if you are wating for prices to go down you might never ever buy here (which is ok).

i predict lower rates FOREVER. its TEOTWAKI if they raise rates....so they wont. its very simple. look at federal deficit - impossible to repay, they will let it sit super higher - ever higher - but with ever lower rates forever. (forever means longer than a working life 30+ years)

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says

Die, Boomer fucks, fucking Die and take the banksters and Realtor®s with you to hell!

Couldn't have said it better myself! GREEDY ASS BOOMERS!

Population 2010 us census 308,745,538
http://2010.census.gov/news/releases/operations/cb10-cn93.html

2000 population projection for 2010 was 308,935,581
http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/files/SummaryTabA1.pdf

So the projection was off by what?less than 200,000 nothing to freak out about. People need to live in these houses at some point. Some places were overbuilt, now population growth has a box to expand in.

2000 census us population 281,421,906

Population history chart
http://www.u-s-history.com/pages/h980.html

da Bulls

Well record affordability in some places but not in Los Angeles. 500,000 for house with 7000 in taxes is not affordable at any interest rate. You can't rent it out for 1% purchase price. The total 30 year payoff is outrageous.

Now where the market has overcorrected in AZ NV FL GA and Similiar it is very good.

People want to buy in the LA area still and banks will lend if you get the FHA on board. But it is overpriced old ugly small houses.

How will you pay your rent with your overvalued fiat currency?

pazuzu says

Coming straight out of NAR's bible. Dude,the reality is completely opposite unless you are assuming home prices will appreciate heftily over the next few years. Not so possible.

It depends on the market. Some areas are cheap relative to rents, other areas are expensive.

Housing is back, it's an investors/bankers/government policy/inflate only monopolistic, drag the economy down, down, down eventually with cheap interest rates. When you can't afford it people will get into sharing living expenses like so many do already.

We don't need population growth, foreign investment is coming, along with larger pools of investors riding high on shit piles of money, the recovery is coming along nicely for them.

There will never be a "bull market" for housing in our lifetimes.
The previous bubble was caused by an aberration noticed by some people before the bubble burst.
Rise in house prices will happen when there are rising wages. Not before.

BABOOMBA PRICES GOING UP UP UP! But it really doesn't matter up or down BUY A HOUSE NAO. Simple formula: Pay Realtor(tm) full commission when buying house and live HAPPILY EVERY AFTER. Silly Doomers will never have super bowl parties keeping this up.

robertoaribas says

And yet Phoenix prices are up nearly 30% from the bottom... I guess never is here already!

Would that be the median sales price ?

Please explain this Roberto.

http://www.zillow.com/local-info/AZ-Phoenix-home-value/r_40326/

robertoaribas says

And yet Phoenix prices are up nearly 30% from the bottom... I guess never is here already!

http://web.archive.org/web/20110722134217/http://www.housingbubblebust.com/OFHEO/Major/SouthWest.html

Just going back to the norm!

"In economics, a dead cat bounce is a small, brief recovery in the price of a declining stock.[1] Derived from the idea that "even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height", the phrase, which originated on Wall Street, is also popularly applied to any case where a subject experiences a brief resurgence during or following a severe decline."

I think this discussion (and others started by Roberto Aribas) are missing a key point. It's true that there is a shortage of inventory - I can see the statistics for myself on the ground, others can verify it easily enough. Is this an engineered shortage by the banks or a true market driven shortage? If this is engineered, any bump in prices is likely temporary and more an action to "put a floor under home prices" than a lasting bull cycle. Unless the banks can do this forever - oh, wait a minute, there is no reason they cannot!

robertoaribas says

And yet Phoenix prices are up nearly 30% from the bottom... I guess never is here already!

Hmmmm. Okay, I guess if you say so...,but...

I'm pretty sure that some people don't understand the difference between prices going up and more expensive homes selling. E.g if only one home sold in a town one month, and it was a 75,000 home and then two 200,000 homes sold the next month, you could say the median sales price went up more than 100%. Jeepers !

marcus says

Hmmmm. Okay, I guess if you say so...,but...

I wouldn't put much stock in the zillow home value index.... It's pretty much complete crap.

The pity party has to end at some point.

Let's all hope "insanity" won't be coming back.
Unless Obama wins and we continue on this downward Third world spiral, then eventually the economy will even out, and my kids my be in a better position to buy a house, than I was when I was at 21.
My prediction is, in 10 to 15 years it will be 20 and 30 somethings that are the average age of homeowners while those 40,50 and 60's ect will still be reeling from the RE collapse and the great recession. They will still be calling those crazy kids crazy for buying instead of renting.

What resources are legitimate when looking for local housing stats? Can someone share some websites and any other resources they use?

trulia and zillow are popular

You see ladies and gentlemen here is THE MAN ROBERTO REALTORO. He buys houses which never need repairs!!! CHACHINGA! Damn I wish I knew how to do that, my back is killing me I was up on the roof all weekend working with gooey tar while my deadbeat tenant was drinking lemonade under a tree. I think he was snickering. I’d raise the rent but then he would move out, too many other TYCOOONS like myself trying to rent out their goldmines. :(

Trolling.

Not just for fishermen anymore.

What is the tax rate on non owner occupied/ investment property in Phoenix, AZ?

duckhead says

Damn I wish I knew how to do that, my back is killing me I was up on the roof all weekend working with gooey tar while my deadbeat tenant was drinking lemonade under a tree. I think he was snickering

This forum still surprises and entertains.

Still got to ask yourself at the end of the day, if wages are down, where is the money coming from? Investors?, foreigners? Anyone who can service the debt? That's who is buying many of the homes around me. It may no longer be the traditional home buyer driving the RE market any more. Also, I see credit being loosened up as well, (banks recapitalized by government), people who have declared bankruptcy in the past, are able to get zero down home loans.

duckhead says

You see ladies and gentlemen here is THE MAN ROBERTO REALTORO. He buys houses which never need repairs!!! CHACHINGA! Damn I wish I knew how to do that, my back is killing me I was up on the roof all weekend working with gooey tar while my deadbeat tenant was drinking lemonade under a tree. I think he was snickering. I’d raise the rent but then he would move out, too many other TYCOOONS like myself trying to rent out their goldmines. :(

ROTFLMAO.

APOCALYPSEDUCK is Shostakovich says

I just bought five three deckers filled with section 8 grotesques that I know I will be able to flip for 10x in a year or two.

You're from Worcester, MA!

APOCALYPSEDUCK is Shostakovich says

Worcester?

You know..."three deckers"

That's the only place I've ever heard people use that term. Maybe it's in other New England cities too.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triple-decker

Homes purchased at trustee sales for 90k-100k in Phoenix area can barely get 800-850/month in rent and many sit vacant for months.Dumb money has been buying lately.Supposedly Mr Roberto is going to get 1k month for his 80k house.House I bought for 50k last fall that need 5k rehab rents for $700-750.Idiots now are paying 77k 90k for the same house at the courthouse steps.

2k12 says

Homes purchased at trustee sales for 90k-100k in Phoenix area can barely get 800-850/month in rent and many sit vacant for months.Dumb money has been buying lately.Supposedly Mr Roberto is going to get 1k month for his 80k house.House I bought for 50k last fall that need 5k rehab rents for $700-750.Idiots now are paying 77k 90k for the same house at the courthouse steps.

Seems like a good ROI to me. 750 per month for 55000 investment.