patrick.net

When? There is always another recession coming. This is called the "business cycle".
Who cares? They're rioting (again) at the Apple store in Beijing to buy more iPhones.

"Business cycle" is largely bullshit and has been since computerized inventory systems got going.

The ups & downs since 1970 have been driven by credit cycles not business cycles.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=4mB

shows consumer debt take-on relative to wages, and the falloffs of lending line up with recessions.

Adding in the prime rate (red):

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=4mC

makes this relationship between debt take-on and boom time more clearer.

At any rate, to talk of "business cycles" when the entire global system is basically collapsing is the height of retardation.

Shit's more fucked up than mere business cycles.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMPMED
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BOPGSTB
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FGTCMDODNS
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TCU

Nomograph says

Nobody has a 100% correct track record. Even ECRI doesn't claim this.

For once, try not to be such a kool-aid drinker.

The formula doesn't exactly match the ECRI's Growth Index, but it's only off by an average of 0.024 across the complete series.
Forgive me NOMO. 99.976 % track record.

I see you are still slingin personal attacks as opposed to arguing with analysis of content. I imagine the midget in the first jpg is a wanna be Bully. You too ?

Bellingham Bill says

The ups & downs since 1970 have been driven by credit cycles not business cycles.

If you mean the price of credit precedes positive growth, I disagree. When the banksters see markets prospering, they take some for themselves by raising interest rates. Gasoline, coffee, diamonds, gold & most everything else is also adjusted by demand.

So... How is the existing zero % interest thing working for us ?

Nomograph says

Are you really that dense

Well, at least he is not asking where 1975 is on a graph which is clearly marked as 1975.

Bellingham Bill says

Shit's more fucked up than mere business cycles.

Hey Bill,
The balance chart shows more than a 50% decrease around 2009. What happened ?
Do you see a downward trend on that capacity chart ?

dunnross says

Nomograph says

Are you really that dense

Well, at least he is not asking where 1975 is on a graph which is clearly marked as 1975.

lol--it was a rhetorical question for you. To show you how idiotic your prediction is...

TMAC54 says

So... How is the existing zero % interest thing working for us ?

Much better than the alternative...

TMAC54 says

off by an average of 0.024 across the complete series.

The complete series they refer to is from 1965.
I don't feel stupid. I feel sorry for you. Do you feel sorry?
Nomograph says

Hey pal, YOU are the one who made the ridiculous claim that they have been 100% correct since the 1980's, not me

AND AGAIN, without paying attention to the content, your comment includes "DENSE""RIDICULOUS""STUPID" SHUT THE FUCK UP"!
Get back on the meds.

NO ! YOU are the ONE who said since the 80s. I assumed one would do a little research into an entity with such a perfect track record. Should I include disclaimers that NOTHING in the cosmos is EXACT.
Lash out ? No No . I am trying to get you to look in the mirror. We are all trying to help you.
Do you own the whole set ?

dunnross says

Nomograph says

Are you really that dense

Well, at least he is not asking where 1975 is on a graph which is clearly marked as 1975.

Hey Dunnross,
When they stop making sense, or begin name calling it's just their form of denial.
I can not seem to find any property OWNER who would even acknowledge that values may continue to decline.

SOME won't even admit there was a bubble at all.

TMAC54 says

SOME won't even admit there was a bubble at all.

Yes, I know. A clear sign that we are still a long way from the bottom. If you want to know what a real bottom feels like, read up on the gold bottom in 2001. Most Americans have never even seen a gold coin in their life. In fact, most of them still don't even know what a Kruggerand is:

http://www.youtube.com/embed/nNq6Eq9dK2E

However, how many people still think that a house is a good investment?

Nomograph says

So now you claim their predictions have been 100% accurate since 1965?

You sound more and more ridiculous with every post.

NO NOMO. I claimed that by initiating the thread. But we will wait patiently for your introduction of other organizations with proven track records of financial predictions. I promise I won't wet myself if your heading starts with 101%.
Somebody just sent me this picture of you as a young man. Now I understand. I bet this is STILL happening HUH ?