patrick.net

Oh my god, there is a spoof movie titled "Glengarry Bob Ross".

I watched Glengarry Glen Ross just a few weeks ago.

"PUT THAT COFFEE DOWN. Coffee is for closers. "

Just gotta love those housing stocks!

That's sooo looking familiar to that little market upset way back when...I can't quite remember that long ago...

That’s sooo looking familiar to that little market upset way back when…I can’t quite remember that long ago…

It is still quite unlikely for the market to crash tomorrow...

The increase in jobs in health service and educational service is NOT a good sign.

I read a recent research paper on the payroll distribution in different sectors when we are in recession. The common characteristics are: increases in health services, increase in general services, decrease in business services. The increase in health service jobs are mostly accounted for by the increase in low-pay, high-stress nursing home jobs that originally seldom get filled, so the increase in payroll in these industries are not accompanied by an increase in average pay. Same things can be said for educational service.

This is heralding the recession which is already staring us in the face.

I have my own talk show in Phoenix on Sunday nights from 11-12 p.m.

The cast of characters here is just too good. We've got to do a talk show about the housing bubble. I've talked about it on my show, but having a discussion via phone would be a blast.

I just called my producer we can have three or four guys on the line at once for a live shindig.

We could do a roundtable discussion on how this site got started, how the bubble is impacting everyone, etc. Surfer-x has a great story, Randy H. could whip out some econ stats, etc.

This would be a blast. Plus, you can listen to my station on the air anywhere in the world since it's also streamed live via the web.

I'd like some people to weigh in on if they'd be interested...Everyone would get to hear each others' voices, etc.

Sound off gentlemen(women). I've got the show/audience, you guys show up.

I just called my producer we can have three or four guys on the line at once for a live shindig.

We could also invite MP as the "irrational exuberance" poster child.
Uhh...did I just say that? Maybe a sane "bull", such as Jack, is preferable?

If you want to do a crossfire thing where the optimists argue with the pessimists that would be great. Surfer-x could take on Marina Prime or whatever.

My angle is conservative so I'm always arguing with them.

Let's face it...most Californian's that bought houses with this crazy loans are in the cross hairs...inflation is here.

Everyone's welcome. Let's do it.

...So I'm always arguing with liberals, that is...

uh oh, showing up on Michael's talk show won't make you very popular if you have friends who are so bullish about the RE market that they have sunk in their lifetime savings to load up the 6th house in of their portfolio.

I happen to have several friends like that. So whenever they talk about the RE, I just kept nodding to their sentiment. Yes, California homes never go down, never ever (did I say never already?).

Surfer-x could take on Marina Prime or whatever.

Guess that means you've been lurking here for a while!
Well, if you can any sense of sanity across, you're certainly welcome by me--irregardless of what side of center you're on! In the future, if this country wants to get anything done, it will sure help to dispense with the labels "L" or "C".

Let’s face it…most Californian’s that bought houses with this crazy loans are in the cross hairs…inflation is here.

I'd venture to say many other Americans are in that boat as well.

Well, the housing bubble is not a respecter of persons or political parties.

Right, Left, Center and whoever are all gonna take it in the shorts, some more than others, when this thing comes undone.

I just wanted to throw it out there. Let's do it. It's fun. Talk radio is a blast.

You're all stars on this blog...the world is waiting for you to surf the airwaves on the Michael Holliday show: KFNX Newstalk Radio 1100 AM Pheonix, the 15th largest talk show market in the country.

Nina,

You are absolutely correct. I have been investing in RE for many years, and have been studying it for more than 30 years. I have seen the dramatic difference between being prudent and being foolish. I have also seen the dramatic limitations caused by being a pessimist.

"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty."

Sir Winston Churchill

Go to Google.

Enter in the following: KFNX.

The radio station will be the first site. Click it. Click on "Click Here to Listen Live" and you're done.

" would much rather place my bets on the “Huh?” institute for depravity."

Depravity is Prime.

"Also, I have heard far too many irritating, annoying, and unconstructive conservative rant talk shows to believe that yours is somehow a cut above the rest."

Jack is required to say this. It's part of the agreement in the Marin County residents' handbook.

Jack, I'm a conservative talk show host but want to do a roundtable-like phone discussion. That's all. No hidden agendas. No frills. Cards-on-the-table, etc. No big deal just people talking. Not politics, but housing.

Looks like no-one's interested. so that's the way it goes. Hannity? He's a self-serving bore.

The boomer effect on real estate is significant and will continue to add to demand for another 20 years.

The echo boom is by itself smaller than the boomers but reflects a coming wavre of growing demand that will also be rising during the next 40 years.

The departure of the boomers after 2025 will be a stronger effect than the rising demand of the echo boomers.

We are about to experience a few years of cyclical decline in housing prices. After that we will see the full effect of the double demand wave. Today's prices will look dirt cheap to homebuyers in 20 years.

"You really think I am sounding too “Marin”?"

Weeeellll, I was just teasing you, didn't mean anything much by it. I always enjoy reading your point of view. But now that you mention it, maybe you did sound a little lock-step with the liberal party line. ;-)

"I seriously doubt that Marin would take kindly to the “Huh?” Institute for Depravity either…"

I rarely met a group of people who would. Or at least they won't admit to it publicly. (insert devil face emoticon here)

"met"

Meet, I meant. Meet.

"- changing prop 13"

Do you really think it's possible to get wide-spread support for this? I hope it's possible, but I don't know anyone personally who would shout rah-rah over touchign prop 13.

I expect prices to outpace inflation at a rate that is about one point less than the rate of real growth in GDP.

"I am sure that people will be interested. It is far too early to say that nobody is interested when they are all watching Survivor and "

Exactly. Not many people are here right now. And the only reason I am is because I'm Tivo-ing Survivor and CSI. :-)

However, I expect prices to decline by about 5% per year in the major markets during the next few years. Prices will more than make up for this during the next up cycle.

After 2025 I expect prices to track with inflation for a long time.

"We tivo’d Survivor while watching……. LAST week’s Survivor!"

Okay, so last week's maneuvering by the guy who was on the chopping block was nothing short of brilliant. Very smart of him to egg that Texas dude into being even more annoying. I love when players are actually able to be smart and maneuver like that rather than just flying under the raidar or being little follower sheep.

We are about to experience a few years of cyclical decline in housing prices. After that we will see the full effect of the double demand wave. Today’s prices will look dirt cheap to homebuyers in 20 years.

Price level in 20 year will depend heavily on market psychology in the future, which is a few cycles away.

My comments are based on demographic profiles, and the consumer spending habits by age cohort... overlaid upon historical cycle patterns and traditional economic analysis.

Well, let's see if anyone's interested. It can be ny time i the future, so there's no hurry.

Wouldn't it be interesting to hear everyone's voice? For those nervous souls, just kick back with a bottle of wine on your sofa and pick up the phone and dial in.

Jack, I'm used to rolling it on the air with people who want to KILL me, so I'm not really frazzled at your initial reaction.

Thanks!

My spelling...yikes!

Well, let’s see if anyone’s interested. It can be any time in the future, so there’s no hurry.

Wouldn’t it be interesting to hear everyone’s voice? For those nervous souls, just kick back with a bottle of wine on your sofa and pick up the phone and dial in.

Jack, I’m used to rolling it on the air with people who want to KILL me, so I’m not really frazzled at your initial reaction.

Thanks!

"I don’t think chaning of prop 13 will fly this year, but let prices drop 20% and people will be screaming about how much “Extra” tax they are paying. "

Since I don't own real estate here, I'm unfamiliar with how it works when property values drop. Don't the taxes drop too as properties are reassessed at lower values?

I think of people like my inlaws who are still paying ultra-low taxes because they bought their SF house in the 70s, and that's what makes me think changing it won't fly unless the changes grandfather people like them in. The older folks are the ones who go out and vote in big blocks, after all, and they don't want to loose their cushy tax situation.

But I do agree that it is prudent to invest in real estate in reasonable places after the coming shake down.

My comments are based on demographic profiles, and the consumer spending habits by age cohort… overlaid upon historical cycle patterns and traditional economic analysis.

I agress this analysis is quite accurate, although I believe the tech bust represent a divergence. (I remember looking at a chart with lagged demographics data plotted on dow)

Peter P,

Yes. Cyclical conditions will affect the general secular trends that I have described. The timing of the cyclical peaks and troughs is yet to be seen, and psychology is a major factor in causing the cycle to be above or below the secular trend line.

Another important factor is that supply responds to demand shifts on a significant lag. This leads to shortages and gluts as supply is out of sync with the cycle of market demand.

e lag effect

Zephyr, in your opinion, how is housing going to be financed in 2025? Inheritance from boomer? Strong economic growth? More voodoo loans?

Zephyr, I love chatting with you. I can feel myself getting wiser. ;)

Real incomes will be higher for the upper half of the populastion. They buy most of the housing, and are thus the real market.

While we know how many people will be in each age cohort far into the future, I cannot predict how our methods of financing will evolve with any confidence. I assume that they will be about the same.

Many will inherit substantial equity and/or homes from their parents. Certainly this will enable people to afford higher prices.

For a point of reference, note that today the averge equity position of homeowners is about 50%, and the average homeowner spends roughly 10% of income on housing. Obviously, the first-time buyer is not in such favorable financial condition.