0
0

Buy before it is too late!


 invite response                
2005 Oct 19, 10:07am   31,998 views  151 comments

by Peter P   ➕follow (2)   💰tip   ignore  

How close have you come to buying into this thing? What influenced your decision? What did you do? Was it the right decision?

By hymie

Comments 1 - 40 of 151       Last »     Search these comments

1   KurtS   2005 Oct 19, 10:24am  

has anyone ever done a survey of the board members to see how many rent, how many own?

We own, and I've suspected a bubble since about '02 when prices didn't drop after the dot-bomb. Still, I thought it might be wise to buy a vacation home, but after seeing the level of speculation--and a host of other factors--I think it's far wiser to wait. Besides, vacation homes are a bit of a drain, so we'll just move into something larger at the right time (translation: not yet).

2   Sentinel78   2005 Oct 19, 11:57am  

I visited a FSBO listing of a townhouse for $365K back in April '05. It was a piece of crap and I wasn't too interested in it in any case. They were giving out promotional information on it and one piece of information they gave out was what their purchase price was, in 2000, and they bought it for $115,000. the 300% difference finally convinced me the market was in lala land.

3   Sentinel78   2005 Oct 19, 11:58am  

Oops, that's in Fairfax Cty, VA. (Reston)

4   Jamie   2005 Oct 19, 12:40pm  

"How can you put an apartment in a 2 bedroom 1 bathroom house???"

Convert the garage, of course. It's the California way. ;-)

5   Jamie   2005 Oct 19, 12:53pm  

"How close have you come to buying into this thing?"

Last winter we got prequalified on a (traditional) loan for a place, but I couldn't imagine really doing it, in spite of everyone insisting it was now or never, that we were about to be priced out forever, blah blah blah.

I started feeling like everyone in California had lost their minds, so I got on the internet and googled "bay area housing bubble" since I was convinced there had to be a bubble and hoping someone else out there thought so too. Guess where I ended up?

"What influenced your decision?"

Our friends and family were really encouraging us we needed to buy a place when we were there visiting last Christmas. Soon as I found this blog, it was all over.

"What did you do?"

Tossed the loan paperwork.

"Was it the right decision?"

Abso-freaking-lutely.

We were just temporarily caught up in the craziness. I think when you live in an area where prices for homes have gotten out of wack and there's this frenzy surrounding real estate, it's easy to totally lose perspective. You start thinking things like, "Hey, 1.2 mil isn't such a bad price for a fixer in a marginal neighborhood. The house does have lots of character and period detail, after all." If everyone around you is paying similar prices, and you're hearing all these stories of how people are raking in cash from real estate, you start thinking you're going to miss the boat.

Even if we stay priced out for good, I'm okay with that. There are some things I won't do on principle alone (believe it or not, Jack), and paying way too much for a house is one of them.

6   Jamie   2005 Oct 19, 1:04pm  

"Does Tom DeLay doing the perp walk qualify as a 10 smackdown event? If so, I’ll gladly watch my re values plunge."

At the very least, it's one of those rare occasions when CNN actually made me smile. :-P

7   Jamie   2005 Oct 19, 1:07pm  

Well, his indictment made me smile, anyway. A conviction would be sweet.

8   Randy H   2005 Oct 19, 1:11pm  

How close have you come to buying into this thing?

My wife and I have lived in the BA since 1996. When we first moved here from Chicago everyone said "brace yourselves" regarding home prices. I came within inches of convincing my wife not buy our first home in Redwood City. I didn't really think about bubbles and such back then, just that CA was whacked.

We bought, traded up twice, and sold our last home in Belmont in April. I almost bought into the "there's no bubble" talk, and didn't sell. We had to move anyway, for family and work reasons, to Marin (or SF, but not really an option with the little one). I damn near decided to rent out our Belmont home, until I started doing some numbers. Something seemed wrong. I googled "bay area housing crash" and the rest is history.

What influenced your decision?

I was convinced something was wrong before I found patrick.net. The numbers just weren't working out with the statistical simulation I was doing in Crystal Ball to calculate the "sell or not, buy or rent" decision (I should mention I'm a huge geek). Once I came here I lurked for many months and just read others' comments and observations. This helped me realize that I wasn't a lone contrarian, but that a lot of very intelligent people had come to the same conclusion.

What helped me feel more certain about my decision was that the people here were very diverse. There are all kinds of poiltical disagreements, philosophical debates, social mismatches, and economic arguments. But everyone agreed (aside from one certain MP) that things were just too crazy. Seeing lots of folks who couldn't agree on what to order for an apetizer agree on the housing bubble was very reassuring.

What did you do? Was it the right decision?

It was right for us. We had to move anyway, so we had a perfect opportunity to sit things out a while. We'll buy back in before the bottom, because we just can't wait 5-6-10 years. But, I'll feel a hell of a lot better knowing I didn't throw away our hard earned equity (ok, maybe not earned, but mine nonetheless) on overpriced $1.5M $hitbox hanging off a hill in Mill Valley.

By the way, I delurked after many months here. I saw some of the same questions I had been asking come around again, and I felt an obligation to share. By now I'm sure many are thinking, enough sharing already...

9   Jamie   2005 Oct 19, 1:17pm  

"By now I’m sure many are thinking, enough sharing already…"

Not at all! I love hearing other people's bubble stories. We've done a similar thread in the past, I think, but it was a different group of people so it's nice to hear the new stories as more people pop in.

10   Jamie   2005 Oct 19, 1:21pm  

(Off topic) BTW, Randy, did you like Belmont as a community for families? I've been looking for info on it recently.

11   Peter P   2005 Oct 19, 1:30pm  

I was convinced something was wrong before I found patrick.net.

Same here. I was trying to convince a friend of the bubble theory. I googled up this site and sent it to a friend, who said that only a stupid person would believe what it says. Since this friend is 100% wrong on everything, my bubble belief is further reinforced.

12   surfer-x   2005 Oct 19, 1:37pm  

To me it just smelled too much like the dot com bullshit. To me there was just no fucking reason why a house would go up by 100K a year. Why would it do that other than being total and complete bullshit? A buddy told me about this site, but I had made up my mind a long time ago. I was convinced when I was told for the 400th time, "you have to get in now". To me there was absolutely no reason to buy a house hoping it would go up so I MIGHT be able to get a house I want to live in. When my self-adopted Dads wife told me "you have to get over the fact that the house you can afford to buy you wouldn't want to live in". Too much bullfuckingshit. I saw an article in money magazine that spelled out the historical facts of RE and then I was convinced. Still bites ass waiting around for the fuckers to get their hats handed to them. Assholes like MP only solidified my opinion. Too much swagger. Too many assholes that confused luck with talent, too much arrogance for it to be anything other than an illusion. This site taught me a ton about the Fed and Mr. Bubbles. I saw first hand the real estate blow out in japan and then saw the swaggering assholes here say the same things, "it can't go down". Why, because you don't want it to? Fuck off.

13   Jamie   2005 Oct 19, 2:09pm  

"My wife was desperate to buy as we have 2 young kids."

I'm sorry she couldn't be brought around to your way of thinking. It's got to be really hard when both of you don't agree.

We have two small kids too, and I have to admit, there is a HUGE nesting instinct for women after having kids that I don't see so much with men. I mean, I'm the kind of person who could happily sell all my possessions and go backpacking around the world for years, but once I had kids, all of a sudden I was completely obsessed with settling down. I mean, OBSESSED. Ask my husband--he'll nod a weary nod.

His job keeps us moving around for now though (we'd have been renting out a house if we'd decided to buy), and part of me likes that. I've had to really step outside myself and examine the fact that this nesting instinct thing has to be bioligical, some kind of urge passed down through the ages :-), because it's not me. I still want my kids to have a house to grow up in, but I also try to reassure myself that it's pretty cool to grow up knowing the whole world rather than just one town.

"much as I don’t like it, it has at least saved me a bucketful of money."

I hope things work out well for your family.

14   Jamie   2005 Oct 19, 2:35pm  

"I’ve alway wondered how the hell techies or traders could have lost money in that boom when Joe Bagodoughnuts got so fat? I mean, talk about easy money, Jeebus."

I thought it was the doughnuts that made Joe fat! ;-) We were not techies or traders, but we did lose lots of paper wealth as many people did, out of ignorance. We weren't paying close enough attention to the market to understand it, just had some mutual funds that lost half their value. So if those fund managers couldn't figure out what the heck was going on...

We only knew one person who predicted the crash, and he did warn us to get out before it was too late. Duh, shoulda listened to him!

15   Michael Holliday   2005 Oct 19, 2:40pm  

I left San Jose a few days before Jan. '99 after my parents got a divorce after 36 years.

I moved to Pheonix with my mom and younger brother and sister, to help them get set up. I ended up staying for a while, to wait out the dot.com/recession thingy, and decided to cook up to Northern Ariz. University for an MBA. I figured by the time I was done, the economy might start getting back to post dotcom sanity.

Then 911 hit. Half my clas was unemployed by graduation.

I scoped out the BA and watched in disbelief as the prices, contrary to the laws of economic physics, kept rising. My parents sold their San Jose house, pretty nice, for $380k. It is now upwards of $850-$900k. In other words, my dad, who supported us all with his IBM Tech Writer salary would be living under a bridge if he were to go back. You must now be a fvking surgeon or two engineer household to enter the hallowed ground of my old neighborhood.

Naturally, the crowd psychology of the dotcom hysteria came to mind. I am now, more than ever, convinced that if there is a bandwagon, the average American is more than happy to jump on it...even if it means screwing up the gig for everyone else.

entered "housing boom" or "housing bubble" in Google t try to get a handle on the situation, and happened upon this site.

I have learned much from this site. Most importantly, I have learned to hate, despise and loathe the friggen' hippy ass Baby Boomer generation for all their worth(less) for helping to really fvck this country up...with a little help from the wit and wisdom of Surfer-X...(no relationship to Malcolm X, I'm sure).

Instinctually, I knew something was cooking, but couldn't quite articulate it, or put my finger on who was actually behind the Wizard of Oz curtain pulling the strings. Surfer-x laid it out and articulated the Boomer phenomenon. Now I could point the finger or, more appropriately, give the finger to who needed to be given it.

I now nurture and cherish my disdain and disgust for the Boomers and will cheer their stupid ass demise as l play the song "Eulogy" by Tool while drinking beer and dancing on their graves when they mercifully kick the bucket!

Amen.

16   Michael Holliday   2005 Oct 19, 2:44pm  

Corrected version...

I left San Jose a few days before Jan. ‘99 after my parents got a divorce after 36 years.

I moved to Pheonix with my mom and younger brother and sister, to help them get set up. I ended up staying for a while, to wait out the dot.com/recession thingy, and decided to cook up to Northern Ariz. University for an MBA. I figured by the time I was done, the economy might start getting back to post dotcom sanity.

Then 911 hit. Half my clas was unemployed by graduation.

I scoped out the BA and watched in disbelief as the prices, contrary to the laws of economic physics, kept rising. My parents sold their San Jose house, pretty nice, for $380k. It is now upwards of $850-$900k. In other words, my dad, who supported us all with his IBM Tech Writer salary would be living under a bridge if he were to go back. You must now be a fvking surgeon or two engineer household to enter the hallowed ground of my old neighborhood.

Naturally, the crowd psychology of the dotcom hysteria came to mind. I am now, more than ever, convinced that if there is a bandwagon, the average American is more than happy to jump on it…even if it means screwing up the gig for everyone else.

I entered “housing boom” or “housing bubble” in Google t try to get a handle on the situation, and happened upon this site.

I have learned much from this site. Most importantly, I have learned to hate, despise and loathe the friggen’ hippy ass Baby Boomer generation for all their worth(less) for helping to really fvck this country up…thanks to the the wit and wisdom of Surfer-X…(no relationship to Malcolm X, I’m sure).

Instinctually, I knew something was cooking, but couldn’t quite articulate it, or put my finger on who was actually behind the Wizard of Oz curtain pulling the strings. Surfer-x laid it out and articulated the Boomer phenomenon. Now I can point the finger or, more appropriately, give the finger to who needs to be given it. In large part, the Boomers.

I now nurture and cherish my disdain and disgust for the Boomers and will cheer their stupid ass demise as l play the song “Eulogy” by Tool while drinking beer and dancing on their graves, when they mercifully kick the bucket!

Amen.

17   Michael Holliday   2005 Oct 19, 2:47pm  

...for all THEY'RE worth(less)…

Sheesh, I need to brush up on my English...

18   Peter P   2005 Oct 19, 3:13pm  

You guys were just investing, and got hurt. I’m talking about all of the thousands of techies, investors, and mercenaries, myself included, who came to the party just to pillage. Watching them get crushed of their own accord is something I’ll not forget. They could resist anything but temptation.

I was in school when the tech bubble burst. Some of my friends got margin calls. I was lucky enough to be most on the sideline.

19   Peter P   2005 Oct 19, 3:33pm  

Pop!, prices are usually above or below "fair" value. It all depends on market psychology.

20   SQT15   2005 Oct 19, 3:40pm  

I’ve alway wondered how the hell techies or traders could have lost money in that boom when Joe Bagodoughnuts got so fat? I mean, talk about easy money, Jeebus.

We sold out early because we knew the damn thing was a bubble. We completely underestimated the herd mentality then and now. Sometimes too much knowledge costs more than blissful ignorance.

We have two small kids too, and I have to admit, there is a HUGE nesting instinct for women after having kids that I don’t see so much with men. I mean, I’m the kind of person who could happily sell all my possessions and go backpacking around the world for years, but once I had kids, all of a sudden I was completely obsessed with settling down. I mean, OBSESSED. Ask my husband–he’ll nod a weary nod.

Hello...Are you in my head??

21   praetorian   2005 Oct 19, 3:47pm  

"Hello…Are you in my head??"

I'm terrified of what is going to happen when my wife and I have kids.

Reason, thy reign was too short...

Cheers,
prat

22   SQT15   2005 Oct 19, 3:50pm  

Reason, thy reign was too short…

Reason? What's that?

23   praetorian   2005 Oct 19, 3:55pm  

Reason? What’s that?

That wooshing sound you hear when the first child arrives? That's it, on its way out. Looks kind of like cross between a light-bulb and a greek goddess.

I am so doing the robot right now...

Cheers,
prat

24   SQT15   2005 Oct 19, 3:58pm  

That wooshing sound you hear when the first child arrives? That’s it, on its way out. Looks kind of like cross between a light-bulb and a greek goddess.

They don't called it "mommy brain" for nothing. If you don't know what that means now just ask your wife when she's pregnant. (better yet..don't)

I am so doing the robot right now…

I'm all about the cabbage patch.

25   Peter P   2005 Oct 19, 4:04pm  

It makes me think that maybe my buddies who are still buying and developing in Phoenix are doing the right thing.

No comment. My buddies are bailing out of Bay Area and boldly go into Arizona. I certainly hope that they are fine.

26   Peter P   2005 Oct 19, 4:06pm  

BTW, it looks like the market is not going to crash this Friday. So I am going to buy you guys beer...

27   praetorian   2005 Oct 19, 4:07pm  

See, now, the robot, there is a dance that guys can get behind. No rhythm required, and hands can stay hetrosexual-comfortably below the neck line. Genius. Oh, sure, it isn't always appropriate, and the club is only going to play Major Tom (Club Remix) and What's On Your Mind (High Energy Remix) so many times, so you won't get to dance too much.

But then, we are guys. That's the POINT.

Cheers,
prat

28   SQT15   2005 Oct 19, 4:07pm  

I don't think I've made a post related to housing in a couple of days. I must be getting burnt out since I am just looking for the silliest discussion possible.

Must think housing.

29   Peter P   2005 Oct 19, 4:09pm  

I don’t think I’ve made a post related to housing in a couple of days. I must be getting burnt out since I am just looking for the silliest discussion possible.

What is sillier than housing in the Silly Valley?

30   SQT15   2005 Oct 19, 4:09pm  

See, now, the robot, there is a dance that guys can get behind. No rhythm required, and hands can stay hetrosexual-comfortably below the neck line. Genius. Oh, sure, it isn’t always appropriate, and the club is only going to play Major Tom (Club Remix) and What’s On Your Mind (High Energy Remix) so many times, so you won’t get to dance too much.

But then, we are guys. That’s the POINT.

You know, that's excellent strategy. I must tell my husband and maybe, just maybe I can talk him into going dancing. Yeah right.

31   Peter P   2005 Oct 19, 4:10pm  

PeterP! You cant give up that easily!

I am not giving up on my bubble theory. It is just that the October expiration may go calmly.

Also, I would love to have bear with you guys. :)

32   SQT15   2005 Oct 19, 4:11pm  

I still maintain I am not a bad girl. :twisted:

33   Peter P   2005 Oct 19, 4:11pm  

You know, that’s excellent strategy. I must tell my husband and maybe, just maybe I can talk him into going dancing. Yeah right.

I was never able to dance without stepping on someone's toe.

34   SQT15   2005 Oct 19, 4:12pm  

Peter P

You want to have bear with us?? Isn't that sorta like cannibalism?

35   praetorian   2005 Oct 19, 4:14pm  

I'm a total sactown redneck, but damn if I'm not obsessed with Feel Good Inc. Does that make me a musico-military industrial entertainmo-plex whore?

_buries head in hands_

_taps foot_

_whispers to self_: Don't stop, get it ,get it, we are your captains in it, steady, watch me navigate, hahahaaaaa

Chewbacca,
prat

36   SQT15   2005 Oct 19, 4:18pm  

Prat needs to stop being so funny! I'll never get any sleep.

37   Peter P   2005 Oct 19, 4:19pm  

Oops...

Let's picture bears drinking beer.

38   SQT15   2005 Oct 19, 4:20pm  

Let’s picture bears drinking beer.

I'm having visions of velvet paintings with beer drinking bears....

39   SQT15   2005 Oct 19, 4:21pm  

That last comment must be a horror to your artistic sensibilities Jack.. Sorry about that.

40   SQT15   2005 Oct 19, 4:25pm  

(Do they really HAVE velvet paintings of beer drinking bears? Like on Ebay or something?)

I haven't seen it personally, but I wouldn't be surprised. I mean, card playing dogs??

Comments 1 - 40 of 151       Last »     Search these comments

Please register to comment:

api   best comments   contact   latest images   memes   one year ago   random   suggestions