patrick.net

Well, it is nice to know that we are all thinking mostly the same thing lol. I guess the real issue becomes sacking-up and putting money on your bets. The market is clearly in mass-reaction mode right now, and once the government declares that it has solved the fiscal cliff issue (which it will) it will probably surge. I expect to see sizable drops over the next 2-3 business days as hysteria spreads, and then a big bump once our leadership announces that it found a way to raise taxes and cut spending (which are, funnily enough, the exact things that "going over the cliff" would do lol).

I think the only thing holding the economy up is government borrowing. No government can continue to borrow at this rate indefinitely. Its a very shaky foundation to be basing investments decisions on.

Mark D says

should have bought 3-4 days after Obama's re-election when NASDAQ was at 2900.

I agree. At today's prices it's a crapshoot, but in the days right after the election prices were much more attractive to me.

Does the fiscal cliff make it good time to buy stock right now?

Question could probably be broken down into two categories, one for short term trades and another for long term prospects. I.E. - if you are only think about buying stock now to sell in January, your answer might be different.

bmwman91 says

Well, it is nice to know that we are all thinking mostly the same thing lol. I guess the real issue becomes sacking-up and putting money on your bets. The market is clearly in mass-reaction mode right now, and once the government declares that it has solved the fiscal cliff issue (which it will) it will probably surge. I expect to see sizable drops over the next 2-3 business days as hysteria spreads, and then a big bump once our leadership announces that it found a way to raise taxes and cut spending (which are, funnily enough, the exact things that "going over the cliff" would do lol).

This close to Christmas I am expecting low volume and little movement.

Looks like yes, the fiscal cliff made it a good time to buy stock, going by the surge today as they get closer to a deal.

I sat on my hands too long (even a couple of hours ago the indexes were only up slightly). Will be interesting to see if Boehner can find enough adults in the GOP.

Looks like yes, the fiscal cliff made it a good time to buy stock, going by the surge today as they get closer to a deal.

Too early to call. 1% is nice, but it could go down dramatically wednesday if no deal is reached.

Bet you two things:

1. A deal will be reached.
2. The stock market will surge much more.

I bet the real surge will be today. I voted "no" because I thought they'd squabble about it a bit more and then backdate whatever they inevitably agreed to but apparently everyone realized what a big hole they'd dug themselves by hyping this nonsense as some sort of armageddon.

DLTR will be a big winner. Combination of unfairly getting beaten down at the same time as the fiscal cliff being overblown. It is already on the move. What better way to play the current economy than with dollar stores. It will only get better in a recession and when people can't access newly printed money as easy as today.

Wow, I have never seen my investment account jump this much in one day (1/2/13). Incredible.

Of course, it's still early in the day yet.....

I did, when they announced AIG bailout and it went from being under $1 to almost $100 in a day. Of course I didn't earn anything, I just recovered what I lost. This was a long time ago investment, still kicking myself for not buying more of it when these were considered a junk stock.

Bet you two things:

1. A deal will be reached.

2. The stock market will surge much more.

Incredible accuracy, Patrick.

I hope you acted on your prescience and made some green.

pdh says

I thought they'd squabble about it a bit more and then backdate whatever they inevitably agreed

I was also expecting something to be agreed upon late this week. It's unlike them to actually meet a deadline.

zzyzzx says

pdh says

I thought they'd squabble about it a bit more and then backdate whatever they inevitably agreed

I was also expecting something to be agreed upon late this week. It's unlike them to actually meet a deadline.

Well they did push out all spending cuts by two months and the debt ceiling too! :)

Now that a deal has been reached, it may be a good time to sell. A correction is still coming. IMHO

Markets up 2%
Oil up 2%

Less transaction fees and taxes,,,from any realized profits

Weeeeeeeeee!

I'm giving Troy some credit too. I thought they'd get a real deal done -- it should have been a tipoff when the negotiations went to Biden and the Senate. Showdown in March -- and it will get ugly. GOP actually had the juice to get a Grand Bargain type deal done in December, but of course they botched it again. I am amazed at how many times they can shoot off their foot (oops -- there goes the other one).

Seems like the stock market bump caused by the deal is over.

Yes, that was probably it.

Now can we predict the next market bump up?

Now can we predict the next market bump up?

Can we predict the next market bump down as well? I'm guessing that it's going to be close to that end of that 2 month extension.

I think the whole market is down today because of the silly fiscal cliff thing. They are all moving together.

I agree with that, but I also think the whole U.S. stock market is overvalued right now.

I'm probably going to buy more GE. After last fiscal Washington compromise they made out big time. They won't be paying much taxes if any. That can't be bad for the stock price.

Yes, that was probably it.

Now can we predict the next market bump up?

It will happen in spurts over the next 12 years.
The last 6 years, which was the worst for our economy since the great depression has created an unprecedented opportunity for asset appreciation in the next few years. There is an ocean of liquidity looking for higher returns, and they can only find it in stocks and real estate.
The golden rays of the sun will shine bright on wall street.

Raw says

It will happen in spurts over the next 12 years

LOL. I meant months. 12 years would be awesome.

I think the next down leg will come in March (when Washington is squabbling over the sequester deadline).