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Jack's Final Prediction For The 2012 Election
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2012 Oct 21, 12:27am 34,492 views 83 comments
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MisdemeanorRebel
2012 Oct 23, 1:53am
Either way, most of you are relying on purposely skewed polls. For real poll data, see http://www.unskewedpolls.com.
Bwawawawawa. Anti-Obama Right-wing propaganda page.
zzyzzx
2012 Oct 23, 2:18am
I think if there is going to be a surprise, it's not going to be Michigan going for Romney, it's going to be one district in Maine going for Romney. I suspect the above pic would be something more like the results if Obama were not an incumbent.
The Population of Boston declines about 33% in the summer time due to the university kids leaving the city. It has the highest concentration of schools of any city in the US. Boston College, Boston University, UMass, Harvard, Simmons, Suffolk, MIT, Emmerson, Northeastern, Berkeley, etc. etc.
This is high, considering the population of Boston is about 625k. One third of that would be ~208K. Those colleges have total enrollment of around 120k at most, many of those are graduate students who do not leave the city, or those that go home from uni to their familiy who live in the city. I would say the exodus from Boston in the summer is at most 100k, making your estimate about twice what it should be.
Berklee, by the way.
This is how the map will most likely look based on unskewed polling data:
Not even the most suspect right wing funded "polling" agency is predicting Romney to win in a landslide. If Romney gets even 300 electoral votes I'll turn in my liberal member card because everything right wing media says about skewed polls and liberal media bias will be true.
If Obama wins though, will you do the same? Will you admit that these polls at unskewed polls are manipulated to support a predetermined narrative? Along with others like Fox News and Rasmussen? What about the owrst one, Gravis Marketing?
Bap33
2012 Oct 23, 3:00am
Yes the dumb and poor should not be able to vote.
not what was said. what was said was, the voting power should be weighted to help keep the nation working properly, since the voter is supposed to be in charge, not some king in DC.
The original system did not include some members of this nation that should have been able to vote. Today there are people voting that should not be. A simple IQ, history, economics test used to weight the vote, plus weight the votes using the percentage of income paid in tax, that would be much more fair. Everyone that is legal to vote gets to vote, but their vote is weighted by those two things. That might help the republic to survive. CNN is not allowed to make up the test.
CL
2012 Oct 23, 3:09am
Why is Mittens doing so poorly in any of his home states? Can you imagine the "conclusions" of our rightwing friends here if Obama was losing Illinois or Hawaii?
zzyzzx
2012 Oct 23, 3:13am
Why is Mittens doing so poorly in any of his home states? Can you imagine the "conclusions" of our rightwing friends here if Obama was losing Illinois or Hawaii?
Exactly what is Obama's home state? Hawaii, Illinois, or Kenya?
rooemoore
2012 Oct 23, 3:16am
A simple IQ, history, economics test used to weight the vote, plus weight the votes using the percentage of income paid in tax, that would be much more fair. Everyone that is legal to vote gets to vote, but their vote is weighted by those two things.
Brilliant. The wealthy, well-educated and intelligent get more votes. The beauty of this is that the wealthy will have more influence over laws that will keep them wealthy and they will get to decide how the intelligence tests are applied.
BTW, Captain America is gay, so I'm guessing you are more open minded then your posts suggest.
CNN is not allowed to make up the test
Exact example of the absurdity of ths idea. Who makes it up then?
The test writer essentially has the power to determine elections - a right leaning test writer would have questions biased towards conservatives - a left leaning test writer would have questions biased towards liberals.
Why not just let the test writers determine who wins then?
Ceffer
2012 Oct 23, 4:03am
The idea of a couple of "smart guys' making better decisions than "dumb" groups has never been proven to be true.
There is nothing to say that "smart" people are any less prone to abuses of power, especially when given unlicensed reign. They simply create isolated, self serving hierarchies.
Ironically, consensus by groups tend to make better decisions overall for everybody than isolated individuals of any talent descriptor. Groups simply have more information than individuals and tend to balance the information better. This is why democracies can work, at least for a while.
Distributed planning and distributed power sharing tends to work best for everybody, even if certain individuals might hand it to themselves that they are "smarter". This applies to both liberals and conservatives.
Psychopaths typically think that they are smarter than everyone else and can lie and cheat their way out of any situation. Obviously, when given power, they abuse it and attempt in every way to get all of it in their hands no matter what the pain and consequences to others.
The USA tends to operate as a distributed power grid, no matter who is president and who votes. The real enemy to all would be absolute central planning authority.
CL
2012 Oct 23, 4:42am
Exactly what is Obama's home state? Hawaii, Illinois, or Kenya?
And Romney's home planet is Kolob?
Romney:"In my 25 years in Business, I have no idea what your talking about".
Romney, stop flip flopping & try to figure out what your talking about.
Bap33
2012 Oct 23, 5:42am
A simple IQ, history, economics test used to weight the vote, plus weight the votes using the percentage of income paid in tax, that would be much more fair. Everyone that is legal to vote gets to vote, but their vote is weighted by those two things.
Brilliant. The wealthy, well-educated and intelligent get more votes. The beauty of this is that the wealthy will have more influence over laws that will keep them wealthy and they will get to decide how the intelligence tests are applied.
BTW, Captain America is gay, so I'm guessing you are more open minded then your posts suggest.
help me out, where does my post mention wealth? I am pretty sure it says taxes paid as a percentage of income. If you want folks to have equal weight votes, then have a flat tax. Pretty simple. Oh, now I see, you only want folks to be treated equal when the lazy, drugged, or ignorant is given a special leg up? I am for equal treatment under the law. No special interests. If you think a tax of 75% on Voter #1 is a great idea, but a tax of .0002% is ok for Voter #2, and then you think they should have the same vote, then you support an unfair system. EEO has left the building?
Today's tax system sees your average male that is unmarried, no baby-mamas, in his mid 30's and making 90K is paying BIG TIME income taxes. Not for his benefit, but for the benefit of another voter. The founding fathers knew this to be a very bad idea.
The single male voter in his 30's is also seen as a queer superhero if he wears tights. It's a cruel world. lol
My Capn America is not a sodomite. You can make yours what you wish.
Who do you trust more, yourself or government?
If you trust yourself to make the best decisions for you and your family vote for the American, Romney.
If you trust government to make better decisions than you could make for yourself and your family, then vote for the muslim.
You are beginning to sound like Saul Alinsky! What an irony.
CL
2012 Oct 23, 6:35am
My Capn America is not a sodomite. You can make yours what you wish.
Something was up with Bucky. Plus, we all know those overcompensating jingoists are usually closeted queens.
Daytona
2012 Oct 23, 6:43am
My 'wild card" prediction is that the pollsters have not correctly identified and counted potential Hispanic voters who are going to turn out.
I always get the impression that telephone polls, household surveys are no longer representative in this day and age.
Take myself as an example, you will never reach me on a landline, nor any of family members. So far, I have never heard of any situation where pollsters call cell phone nor anyone would even talk to a pollster on a cell phone.
The most likely people who take the time to answer these things are retirees and a certain demograhic.
Despite what the polls indicate, my prediction is Obama 300.
CL
2012 Oct 23, 6:45am
o far, I have never heard of any situation where pollsters call cell phone nor anyone would even talk to a pollster on a cell phone.
I believe even that Gallup outlier used cell phones. Question is, how was it weighted?
Take myself as an example, you will never reach me on a landline, nor any of family members. So far, I have never heard of any situation where pollsters call cell phone nor anyone would even talk to a pollster on a cell phone.
I still have a Florida cell phone number. I was polled on it.
zzyzzx
2012 Oct 23, 9:49am
I believe even that Gallup outlier used cell phones. Question is, how was it weighted?
I am thinking that they all use cell phone numbers, since that would be a seriously amateurish move not to. I do believe that there was a previous election where somebody didn't and it did affect their accuracy.
Bap33
2012 Oct 23, 12:38pm
I've never, ever, been poled. I'm a virgin. (cheap pun ... but kinda funny)
rooemoore
2012 Oct 24, 11:44am
help me out, where does my post mention wealth? I am pretty sure it says taxes paid as a percentage of income.
Fair enough - I get two votes, Romney gets one.
. Oh, now I see, you only want folks to be treated equal when the lazy, drugged, or ignorant is given a special leg up?
The lazy and drugged don't vote. As for the ignorant, well, that would be swell if we could agree what constitutes "ignorant". And we'll let you tell the rednecks with shotguns that they don't get full voting privileges.
we'll let you tell the rednecks with shotguns that they don't get full voting privileges.
Stop it! I laughed so hard I nearly launched my dinner across the table when I read that one..
The premise that a representative democracy was predicated on the fact that not all the constituents were literate (in fact a small percentage were), or informed about issues. At least in theory, both of those hurdles should no longer be present, although the latter is very debatable.
I don't know if this is news. Polls pretty much show Obama winning the electoral vote by a fairly good margin and winning the popular vote, but by a very narrow margin. That just about sums it up...
zzyzzx
2012 Oct 25, 12:33am
http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/story/19905504/michigan-poll-obama-and-romney-in-dead-heat
Michigan Poll: Obama and Romney in dead heat
President Barack Obama 46.92%
Republican Nominee Mitt Romney 46.56%
Detroit newspaper endorses Romney
http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20121025/OPINION01/210250332/1008/opinion01/Editorial-Mitt-Romney-President
Seriously, if Obama can't beat Romney in Michigan by a substantial margin, it might be over for Obama.
Seriously, if Obama can't beat Romney in Michigan by a substantial margin, it might be over for Obama.
Beckel ... Its Over !
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My dear friends Patrick.net is not a political forum. But this morning I am going to predict the outcome of the presidential election. This election has many aspects of my first presidential election in 1948. President Harry Truman ran against Thomas E. Dewey of New York. Harry pulled an incredible upset and beat Dewey even after a New York Times front page headline saying that Dewey had won. The first possible outcome is that Romney wins the popular vote and Obama wins the electoral vote.
My 'wild card" prediction is that the pollsters have not correctly identified and counted potential Hispanic voters who are going to turn out. If this is the case, Obama will win both the popular vote and electoral vote but certainly not like he did in 2008.
The Democrats will retain control of the US Senate. The Republicans will lose some seats in Congress but still retain control there.
Please do not get mad at me or think that I m crazy. I correctly predicted the Supreme Court vote on Obamacare, even down to Judge Roberts casting the decisive vote in favor.
#politics