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Jack's Final Prediction For The 2012 Election


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2012 Oct 21, 12:27am   34,491 views  83 comments

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My dear friends Patrick.net is not a political forum. But this morning I am going to predict the outcome of the presidential election. This election has many aspects of my first presidential election in 1948. President Harry Truman ran against Thomas E. Dewey of New York. Harry pulled an incredible upset and beat Dewey even after a New York Times front page headline saying that Dewey had won. The first possible outcome is that Romney wins the popular vote and Obama wins the electoral vote.

My 'wild card" prediction is that the pollsters have not correctly identified and counted potential Hispanic voters who are going to turn out. If this is the case, Obama will win both the popular vote and electoral vote but certainly not like he did in 2008.

The Democrats will retain control of the US Senate. The Republicans will lose some seats in Congress but still retain control there.

Please do not get mad at me or think that I m crazy. I correctly predicted the Supreme Court vote on Obamacare, even down to Judge Roberts casting the decisive vote in favor.

#politics

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31   curious2   2012 Oct 22, 1:57pm  

MsBennet says

the debate 10/22

I thought Obama won, although mainly because it was about foreign policy while barely mentioning ObamneyCare. The most revealing line from the transcript:

"The good news is (inaudible)."

Romnesia reiterated his bullying/warmongering, trying to put America into wars all over the world. He likes to sound tough when none of his kids are in harm's way, but bullies aren't tough they're cowards. Also his tax shift is reckless and bad for the economy. "Trickle down" economics does not create jobs and it certainly doesn't balance the budget.

32   thomaswong.1986   2012 Oct 22, 2:46pm  

curious2 says

Romnesia reiterated his bullying/warmongering, trying to put America into wars all over the world.

ah yes.. pacifistic siding for which side again !
Of course you rather we have Obama Apology Tour 2013 - 2016.

curious2 says

Also his tax shift is reckless and bad for the economy. "Trickle down" economics does not create jobs and it certainly doesn't balance the budget.

doent ever come to Silicon Valley or think how things actually worked out during the 70s to the 90s around here. You will be disappointed... and certainly dont ever ask the local mayors how fat their tax revenues flowed in from the economic boom.

33   curious2   2012 Oct 22, 3:07pm  

thomaswong.1986 says

siding for which side again !
Of course you rather we have Obama Apology Tour 2013 - 2016.

Romnesia is always on the side of war, anywhere any time, so he can show what a "tough" bully he is by sending other people's kids off to die somewhere and enriching his corporate sponsors.

Obama did not apologize for the killing of Osama bin Laden. The "apology tour" is a false meme fabricated by the Romnesia campaign. W should apologize for messing up the Afghan and Iraq wars though.

The prosperity of Silicon Valley from the 70s through 90s did not result from Reagan's "trickle-down economics." Reagan didn't even take office until 1981, and he left in 1989, and in between he raised taxes many times. The success of Silicon Valley in the 1970s-90s had a lot more to do with the excellence of what used to be the best state university system in the nation, which is why the prosperity happened in California not Alabama.

34   thomaswong.1986   2012 Oct 22, 3:38pm  

curious2 says

The success of Silicon Valley in the 1970s-90s had a lot more to do with the excellence of what used to be the best state university system in the nation, which is why the prosperity happened in California not Alabama.

California had a pro business attitude which allowed the trickle down to benefit many.
Not only with the degreed employees but many many factory workers. Its no wonder many here back in the 60-70s saw this as did than Governor Ronald Reagan.
why else did so many vote for Reagan in 1980 and 1984.

You could of said the same regarding Universities around Route 128 in Boston... but they failed.

35   thomaswong.1986   2012 Oct 22, 3:40pm  

curious2 says

Romnesia is always on the side of war, anywhere any time, so he can show what a "tough" bully he is by sending other people's kids off to die somewhere and enriching his corporate sponsors.

Please do so.. as many Anti-war liberals said about Reagan.. and look around, The USSR is gone along with much of their nukes.. so having a tough leader does work.

36   thomaswong.1986   2012 Oct 22, 3:43pm  

curious2 says

Obama did not apologize for the killing of Osama bin Laden.

Obama never killed OBL.. the intel agencies had standing orders to find and kill/capture OBL long before Obama ever thought of running for office. It is those unknown intel and military professionals that take credit... they been at it for a long long time.

37   thomaswong.1986   2012 Oct 22, 3:45pm  

curious2 says

The "apology tour" is a false meme fabricated by the Romnesia campaign. W should apologize for messing up the Afghan and Iraq wars though.

There is no apology for going after OBL in Afghanistan or stopping Sadam in Iraq.
As for Iraq... then you would also disagree with the current situation with Iran.

38   curious2   2012 Oct 22, 3:50pm  

thomaswong.1986 says

Universities around Route 128 in Boston... but they failed.

Universities failed in Boston? I haven't heard of that before. Can you cite any examples? From what I heard, the 128 corridor prospered at least until RomneyCare kicked in.

thomaswong.1986 says

Obama never killed OBL.. the intel agencies had standing orders to find and kill/capture OBL long before Obama ever thought of running for office.

Obama personally authorized every step of the mission that killed bin Laden. Both of his predecessors tried but failed. Clinton missed his opportunity because he worried about blowing up a tent that was being used for prayers. W took his eye off the ball by shifting resources from Afghanistan to Iraq, then he said publicly that he wasn't even thinking about bin Laden anymore. Obama maintained focus, took the risk, and deserves credit for having succeeded where his predecessors failed. He doesn't claim credit for having gone there himself, unlike "bring 'em on" W in a flight suit in front of the "mission accomplished" banner.

39   curious2   2012 Oct 22, 3:53pm  

thomaswong.1986 says

There is no apology for going after OBL in Afghanistan or stopping Sadam [sic] in Iraq.

W let bin Laden slip out of Afghanistan, and gave $$$ to Pakistan, where OBL was living in a military town. W had previously hosted the Taliban in Texas, when he was governor. If W had finished the job in Afghanistan before shifting resources to Iraq, then the Taliban and bin Laden and Saddam (note spelling) Hussein could all have been dealt with for a fraction of the price. But that's the point: the idea is to maximize government spending, i.e. revenue for the patronage network. Both major parties do that, but somehow you don't see it when the Republicans do it. Why is that?

40   thomaswong.1986   2012 Oct 22, 3:57pm  

curious2 says

Universities failed in Boston? I haven't heard of that before. Can you cite any examples? From what I heard, the 128 corridor prospered at least until RomneyCare kicked in.

They died because of they were inflexible, unable to change with overhang of govt bureaucrats. Their EGOs killed them off.. its the same pathetic hype and snottiness we see in SV today.

41   curious2   2012 Oct 22, 4:00pm  

thomaswong.1986 says

They died because of they were inflexible, unable to change with overhang of govt bureaucrats.

Which universities died?

42   thomaswong.1986   2012 Oct 22, 4:02pm  

curious2 says

Obama personally authorized every step of the mission that killed bin Laden. Both of his predecessors tried but failed. Clinton missed his opportunity because he worried about blowing up a tent that was being used for prayers.

there is no authorize this step or the other... Its all or none. Military and Intel staff do the planing and authorize the best plan. All any president can do is authorize the final action. BTW, the reason we had finally corned OBL is that we used our version of interrogation.. you call torture. So Obama actually hindered actions to capture OBL since he took office and banned our interrogation methods.

43   curious2   2012 Oct 22, 4:07pm  

thomaswong.1986 says

there is no authorize this step or the other... the reason we had finally corned OBL is that we used our version of interrogation.. you call torture.

I didn't mention torture but no, it didn't lead to finding OBL. In fact, UCLA geographers using open source materials accurately described the type of location and got within 130 miles of him. Torture did not produce useful evidence. If torture had found OBL, then he would have been found during W's administration which authorized torture, which turned out to be a waste of time. OBL was found during Obama's administration. Q.E.D.

45   thomaswong.1986   2012 Oct 22, 4:35pm  

curious2 says

thomaswong.1986 says

They died because of they were inflexible, unable to change with overhang of govt bureaucrats.

Which universities died?

no not the universities .. but the tech companies. Route 128 had more employers and more employees far far more than Silicon Valley even with all the Universities it didnt help in the long run. So Universities were not the factor.

the short of it is ... many "borrowed" their ideas from their prior employer and created new companies. In Boston they would have been sued and jailed.

http://techcrunch.com/2009/10/31/the-valley-of-my-dreams-why-silicon-valley-left-bostons-route-128-in-the-dust/

By the mid-1990s the east had missed the shift from minicomputers to personal computers as the flexible Silicon Valley ecosystem sped ahead with innovation across a diversifying range of components and systems going from chips, routers, and application software to ecommerce and search engines. Today Silicon Valley is the leading location for cleantech venture activity, an area widely considered to be the next big value creation engine for the U.S. and the world.

Boston, however, is no slouch. The Route 128 community remains the second biggest in the U.S. in terms of venture funds committed. Boston has powerful research institutions, still, and lots of very strong companies. In some areas, such as biotech, Boston may even rival Silicon Valley. But overall, its pretty clear that the Valley has not only won but is racing further ahead.

46   thomaswong.1986   2012 Oct 22, 5:06pm  

curious2 says

curious2 says

I thought Obama won [tonight's debate]

CNN says a plurality of voters agree, Obama by 8 points, 48%-40%.

Obama said in his closing:

"Yes, I want to reduce our deficit by cutting spending that we don't need but also by asking the wealthy to do a little bit more so that we can invest in things like research and technology that are the key to a 21st century economy."

We here in Silicon Valley created something of a 21st century over the past decades.. but it certainly wasnt from Govt spending or forced taxation siphoned into some govt mandated R&D programs like Solar or Wind energy. If anything over the past 4 years the Govt backed, taxpayer funded initiatives/programs all have gone down as failures. Tax dollars lost... and nothing to show for it.

Pretty much all of our R&D / Manufacturing funding which created new industries/companies and employed benefiting untold thousands came by voluntarily contributions from the upper class excess savers (the top 10%). They take the risk and we create the industries and job. It has by all accounts created a booming middle class.

We had an financial/economic/taxing/regulatory environment which allowed us to create this success story of today. But its the unfair foreign trading practice and domestic taxing/regulatory environment which is choking off any recovery and further progress, if any.

So do we believe in some Govt backed confiscation/distribution of wealth policy based on governments own agenda or the past tried and true success story which has worked for decades.

Its time to unshackle from this government bondage on our industries so we can grow and compete globally as we see fit. Stop the over regulation and let investments flow to create domestic careers and jobs.

As Mitt said to Obama.. "In my 25 years in Business, I have no idea what your talking about".

I agree with Mitt.

47   Ceffer   2012 Oct 22, 5:35pm  

"Yes, I want to reduce our deficit by cutting spending that we don't need but also by asking the wealthy to do a little bit more so that we can invest in things like research and technology that are the key to a 21st century economy."

Ha, Ha! That is like the vapid beauty queen calling for world peace.

Stating the obvious followed by a couple of non sequitur free associations. That's our fearless leader!

48   curious2   2012 Oct 22, 5:44pm  

thomaswong.1986 says

As Mitt said to Obama..

I checked the transcript and can't find Romnesia saying anything like the quote you attributed to him. Please confirm?

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/22/transcript-third-presidential-debate/comment-page-2/

Anyway agreeing with Romnesia always requires a timestamp because he changes so completely from one speech to the next. He was for ObamneyCare before he was against it, now he's for parts of it again but not the rest. He promises to increase spending, cut taxes, and balance the budget, all at the same time. Agreeing with Romnesia requires abandoning math, logic, and all reason.

Romnesia is a lemon socialist and crony capitalist just like W appointee Bubbles Ben Bernanke. W authorized TARP and appointed Bubbles Ben, and the beneficiaries of that largesse are now supporting Romnesia. The result is an economy dominated by zombie banks and GSEs with centrally planned pricing for essential assets including housing.

You might really prefer former Governor Gary Johnson. Unlike Romnesia, Johnson actually supports free markets.

49   thomaswong.1986   2012 Oct 22, 7:37pm  

curious2 says

I checked the transcript and can't find Romnesia saying anything like the quote you attributed to him. Please confirm?

http://foxnewsinsider.com/2012/10/03/debate-quote-romney-you-need-to-get-a-new-accountant/

50   thomaswong.1986   2012 Oct 22, 7:40pm  

curious2 says

Romnesia

Thats funny.. but we need a president in the office not a comedian.
Leave the one liners for the late night talk shows... thats their job.

51   kentm   2012 Oct 22, 9:15pm  

President, not a comedian... Do you guys just make shit up as it seems to fit the moment, regardless of whether or not it's ... Oh, right.

Anyway, No, you need someone in there who has character and integrity, someone who you know what they stand for. Remember what that is? None of you can name one single thing you actually support about romney because nobody actually knows! Every time he opens his mouth something different comes out.

"Romney has publicly demonstrated no core convictions beyond his obvious belief that he should be president. He apparently thinks that simply not being Obama is qualification enough." and for you it is. And like him You keep spouting on about the economy and policy like you know what youre talking about, but all of your points have been proven in study after study and in country after country where they've been tried to be false and failures.

Like America: "George W. Bush’s. His central economic policy was tax cuts for the rich, and he produced the slowest job growth of any president since the Depression. Romney will do that again. Promise." (nationalmemo.com). it's what he did in mass: It Only Took Romney One Term as Governor to Raise the Debt and Ruin Jobs (politicususa.com) "Romney took office during an economic uptick. Massachusetts had a net job growth of 1.4 percent under Romney. However, that was far slower growth than the national average of 5.3%. As Romney’s opponents have frequently, and correctly, noted, Massachusetts ranked 47th in job growth over the entirety of Romney’s term. The only states that did worse: Louisiana, Michigan and Ohio.” Obama doubled the national debt? No, but Bush 1 and 2 nearly did. Reagan almost TRIPLED it. (usgovinfo.about.com)
So I wish you would just shut the hell up about pretending you care about economics and policy because its bullshit and just admit that your only real point is your blind hatred of anything not republican.

By the way, your great and proudly independent silicone valley was built on the back of DARPA research and publicly funded universities, asshole. It was private enterprise that took it all to wonderful heights but it didn't happen in a vacuum.

Go back to your comic books.

52   zzyzzx   2012 Oct 22, 11:20pm  

A Tale of Two Presidents

Mitt Romney: The Next President -
As president of Bain Capital, invested billions in private equity in these companies:

Staples Office Supply
Burger King
Burlington Coat Factory
AMC Entertainment
Domino's Pizza
Dunkin' Donuts
Sports Authority
Toys "R" Us
Warner Music Group

All of the above are profitable businesses
that have created hundreds of thousands of jobs.

President Barack Obama -
As president of the United States, invested billions of your tax dollars in these companies:

Solyndra-Bankrupt
Ener 1-Bankrupt
Beacon Power-Bankrupt
Abound Solar-Bankrupt
Amonix Solar-Bankrupt
Spectra Watt-Bankrupt
Eastern Energy-Bankrupt
Ener Del-Bankrupt
Range Fuels-Bankrupt

All of the above bankrupt companies were major contributors to Barack Obama's 2008 presidential campaign.

53   zzyzzx   2012 Oct 22, 11:21pm  

curious2 says

Romnesia is a lemon socialist

If true. that would still be a big improvement over Obama.

54   Tenpoundbass   2012 Oct 23, 12:38am  

Call it Crazy says

Yo Adrian...

See John Stewart, that's how you make a Political funny with out being a party schill.

55   Bap33   2012 Oct 23, 1:06am  

robertoaribas says

Bap33 says



we need to make stupid people votes count for less than smart people votes.


BAP finally said something I almost agree with! My vote would count for 100 bap votes, if this xenophobic troglodyte had to compare to me on IQ!

The only assumption you make here is the entire post. lol. At any rate, if you scored 97% and I scored 75%, I think your vote should carry the weighted difference.
Having the votes weighted to match the percentage of income paid in taxes (less any handouts) should be a part of the system too. If roberto pays 40% of his income in taxes and I pay 20%, his vote should carry more weight. Just my opinion.

56   lostand confused   2012 Oct 23, 1:36am  

Whatever happened to Romney in last night's debate? He looked like he was attending somebody's funeral, not a Presidential debate?

57   Tenpoundbass   2012 Oct 23, 1:40am  

Yes the dumb and poor should not be able to vote. But they should be free to ransack gated community neighborhoods, plunder, rape and pillage leaving behind a barren waste and destruction. Until the whole country is as desperate, dumb and poor as the next guy.

These people have had ten years of watching Jack Ass the movie to prepare for the civil Apocalypse do you really want them to practice what they've learned on you as you exit the polls where they are barred from participating in their fundamental right that makes them American?

I'm disgusted by this place more and more everyday.

58   MisdemeanorRebel   2012 Oct 23, 1:48am  

curious2 says

Universities failed in Boston? I haven't heard of that before. Can you cite any examples? From what I heard, the 128 corridor prospered at least until RomneyCare kicked in.

Not only does Mass have a multitude of small R&D firms, it also has the back offices of countless insurance and financial companies. As as the notorious MIB - which I think got renamed recently; where they keep records of every private insurance policy ever (in order to look back and find reasons to deny claims). The Population of Boston declines about 33% in the summer time due to the university kids leaving the city. It has the highest concentration of schools of any city in the US. Boston College, Boston University, UMass, Harvard, Simmons, Suffolk, MIT, Emmerson, Northeastern, Berkeley, etc. etc.

59   MisdemeanorRebel   2012 Oct 23, 1:53am  

Barlowe says

Either way, most of you are relying on purposely skewed polls. For real poll data, see http://www.unskewedpolls.com.

Bwawawawawa. Anti-Obama Right-wing propaganda page.

60   zzyzzx   2012 Oct 23, 2:18am  

I think if there is going to be a surprise, it's not going to be Michigan going for Romney, it's going to be one district in Maine going for Romney. I suspect the above pic would be something more like the results if Obama were not an incumbent.

61   david1   2012 Oct 23, 2:50am  

thunderlips11 says

The Population of Boston declines about 33% in the summer time due to the university kids leaving the city. It has the highest concentration of schools of any city in the US. Boston College, Boston University, UMass, Harvard, Simmons, Suffolk, MIT, Emmerson, Northeastern, Berkeley, etc. etc.

This is high, considering the population of Boston is about 625k. One third of that would be ~208K. Those colleges have total enrollment of around 120k at most, many of those are graduate students who do not leave the city, or those that go home from uni to their familiy who live in the city. I would say the exodus from Boston in the summer is at most 100k, making your estimate about twice what it should be.

Berklee, by the way.

62   david1   2012 Oct 23, 2:56am  

Barlowe says

This is how the map will most likely look based on unskewed polling data:

Not even the most suspect right wing funded "polling" agency is predicting Romney to win in a landslide. If Romney gets even 300 electoral votes I'll turn in my liberal member card because everything right wing media says about skewed polls and liberal media bias will be true.

If Obama wins though, will you do the same? Will you admit that these polls at unskewed polls are manipulated to support a predetermined narrative? Along with others like Fox News and Rasmussen? What about the owrst one, Gravis Marketing?

63   Bap33   2012 Oct 23, 3:00am  

CaptainShuddup says

Yes the dumb and poor should not be able to vote.

not what was said. what was said was, the voting power should be weighted to help keep the nation working properly, since the voter is supposed to be in charge, not some king in DC.

The original system did not include some members of this nation that should have been able to vote. Today there are people voting that should not be. A simple IQ, history, economics test used to weight the vote, plus weight the votes using the percentage of income paid in tax, that would be much more fair. Everyone that is legal to vote gets to vote, but their vote is weighted by those two things. That might help the republic to survive. CNN is not allowed to make up the test.

64   CL   2012 Oct 23, 3:09am  

Why is Mittens doing so poorly in any of his home states? Can you imagine the "conclusions" of our rightwing friends here if Obama was losing Illinois or Hawaii?

65   zzyzzx   2012 Oct 23, 3:13am  

CL says

Why is Mittens doing so poorly in any of his home states? Can you imagine the "conclusions" of our rightwing friends here if Obama was losing Illinois or Hawaii?

Exactly what is Obama's home state? Hawaii, Illinois, or Kenya?

66   rooemoore   2012 Oct 23, 3:16am  

Bap33 says

A simple IQ, history, economics test used to weight the vote, plus weight the votes using the percentage of income paid in tax, that would be much more fair. Everyone that is legal to vote gets to vote, but their vote is weighted by those two things.

Brilliant. The wealthy, well-educated and intelligent get more votes. The beauty of this is that the wealthy will have more influence over laws that will keep them wealthy and they will get to decide how the intelligence tests are applied.

BTW, Captain America is gay, so I'm guessing you are more open minded then your posts suggest.

67   david1   2012 Oct 23, 3:26am  

Bap33 says

CNN is not allowed to make up the test

Exact example of the absurdity of ths idea. Who makes it up then?

The test writer essentially has the power to determine elections - a right leaning test writer would have questions biased towards conservatives - a left leaning test writer would have questions biased towards liberals.

Why not just let the test writers determine who wins then?

68   Ceffer   2012 Oct 23, 4:03am  

The idea of a couple of "smart guys' making better decisions than "dumb" groups has never been proven to be true.

There is nothing to say that "smart" people are any less prone to abuses of power, especially when given unlicensed reign. They simply create isolated, self serving hierarchies.

Ironically, consensus by groups tend to make better decisions overall for everybody than isolated individuals of any talent descriptor. Groups simply have more information than individuals and tend to balance the information better. This is why democracies can work, at least for a while.

Distributed planning and distributed power sharing tends to work best for everybody, even if certain individuals might hand it to themselves that they are "smarter". This applies to both liberals and conservatives.

Psychopaths typically think that they are smarter than everyone else and can lie and cheat their way out of any situation. Obviously, when given power, they abuse it and attempt in every way to get all of it in their hands no matter what the pain and consequences to others.

The USA tends to operate as a distributed power grid, no matter who is president and who votes. The real enemy to all would be absolute central planning authority.

69   CL   2012 Oct 23, 4:42am  

zzyzzx says

Exactly what is Obama's home state? Hawaii, Illinois, or Kenya?

And Romney's home planet is Kolob?

70   HEY YOU   2012 Oct 23, 4:59am  

Romney:"In my 25 years in Business, I have no idea what your talking about".
Romney, stop flip flopping & try to figure out what your talking about.

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