patrick.net

CaptainShuddup says

I say melt the icecaps, problem solved.

http://www.youtube.com/embed/svKq044qrYU

robertoaribas says

BUT as a real estate investor, you actually expect me to factor in 40 years from now water scenarios? I'll be almost 90! My purchases will have paid me back every penny I put into them in 10 years tops on rental income alone! I'm reasonably sure Phoenix can survive the next decade!

Yep, point taken. However, the decline will probably be gradual and I would not plan on any income from Arizona real estate during my retirement.

robertoaribas says

Plus, examine technology today compared to 40 year old technology. I'd like to think we will have an entirely different water system by then!

Maybe, but what technology are we talking about? Sure, consumer electronics has exploded over the last 40 years. When was the last big advancement in agriculture that allowed for a huge increase in production? (HINT: it has to do with nitrogen and happened over 100 years ago)

Technology used to get clean water to your mouth also has changed very little over the last 40 or even 100 years and advancements (like desalinization) to get more potable water require huge amounts of energy.

While it is possible that some ultra-cheap system of teleporting only the clean parts of sea water directly to your home is invented, I am not going to hold my breath.

In the future AZ will be a desert!

I can see in my mind what it might look like... sand, cactus, and small shrubs for miles in all directions everywhere around phoenix! the horror.

robertoaribas says

Phoenix cut easily cut its water usage in half by even modest reductions in waste: grass yards, uncovered pools, allowing flood irrigation in older neighborhoods... NOT to mention the huge amount that goes into cotton fields...

...a sepererate water loop on a home to recycle shower water would cut usage down another 20% per household.

I am sure when they do their projections they take none of this into account.

robertoaribas says

It doesn't take expensive water desalinization

True, but for desalinization to even be an option you first need access to a large amount of salt water.

robertoaribas says

Seems to me Southern California is the place that is always putting water restrictions in place...

Yes, Southern California is also going to have great fresh water difficulties due to climate change.

Funny thing is that even without climate change we are consuming fresh water faster than it is "created". Aquifers all over are being drained. Actually the good news for Arizona is that seasonal rains may increase -- helping to charge the aquifer at a greater rate than it is currently. The problem is that the overall input of new fresh water into the lower Colorado river basin is going to probably reduce.

robertoaribas says

that is flat out ridiculous.

Actually what is going to be ridiculous is you at 90 wearing a stillsuit in the Arizona heat...

PockyClipsNow says

In the future AZ will be a desert!

In the future?

wthrfrk80 says

Who exactly decided it would be a good idea to build big cities in deserts? I don't understand the attraction. Is it the sunshine? The lack of humidity? The scorpions?

Since it's land that sucks for farming, why not use it for residential usage and just bring in water from someplace else? It's not like you can't run a pipe ot the Great Lakes or use the vast desert for solar desalinization.

leoj707 says

Maybe, but what technology are we talking about? Sure, consumer electronics has exploded over the last 40 years. When was the last big advancement in agriculture that allowed for a huge increase in production? (HINT: it has to do with nitrogen and happened over 100 years ago)

I'd say drip irrigation but then I read this:

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/greenspace/2008/11/farming-with-dr.html

zzyzzx says

Since it's land that sucks for framing, why not use it for residential usage and just bring in water from someplace else?

If it sucks for framing, how are you going to BUILD houses? Or did you mean farming?

I moved away from Phx about five years ago. Check out the water marks on the Hoover Dam. I remember talking to a lady who ran a gas station somewhere between Vegas & Phoenix - the water table was dropping and her well had failed.

Cotton farmers in AZ have lost some of their water to the cities. Rightfully so, IMO. That's an idiotic crop to grow in a water-scarce environment.

Interesting no one mentioned the golf courses. I remember scoffing at the pleas for citizens to curb their water usage - golf courses dwarf residential water use.

Also, Palo Verde reactors were using effluent water for their cooling back in the 90's. I think they started losing out as cities wanted to recycle the water for their own use.

Man, the Phoenix water tastes nasty...

"I'd say drip irrigation but then I read this:

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/greenspace/2008/11/farming-with-dr.html"

That is an idiotic article: "While drip irrigation can require half the water that flood irrigation does, plants absorb more water with drip, crop yield increases and more water is lost to evapotranspiration. Because drip is more efficient, there is also less overflow to seep back into aquifers or wash into nearby streams or rivers.

That means less water for downstream users and future generations dependent on the aquifers. "

So he's arguing it wastes water because it doesn't use too much water???

chris3637 says

Interesting no one mentioned the golf courses. I remember scoffing at the pleas for citizens to curb their water usage - golf courses dwarf residential water use.

Are you suprised that the 'little people' have to sacrifice but the rich people don't?

chris3637 says

So he's arguing it wastes water because it doesn't use too much water???

He's probably being paid by an interested party to say it.

He is pointing out a well accepted principal of water use. The amount of water passing through a system is irrelevant. The amount of water removed from the system is important.

So, the 'water use' of the Hoover Damn should be the amount that is evaporated from the reservoir, not the amount that passes through a turbine.

The 'water use' of the farm is the net amount removed from the water source. Drip irrigation systems increase the net water use per acre. They do this through increasing yield, so water use per unit product is not increased.

"The amount of water passing through a system is irrelevant. "

Interesting. I guess your water isn't metered, or is free?

If I have a 5 gal. bucket full of water & use it all , does quibbling about how I used it fill the bucket again? LOL

if i have a five gallon bucket and i pour the water into another 5 gallon bucket, then pour it back into the first bucket, have i used any water?

YesYNot,

Where can I get another bucket? Forget it. I would still have an empty bucket.

Hey You. Are you serious? Did you read the article?

YesYNot says

The 'water use' of the farm is the net amount removed from the water source. Drip irrigation systems increase the net water use per acre. They do this through increasing yield, so water use per unit product is not increased.

Either way, who's bright idea was it to do farming in a friggin desert?

^They started when they found a big underground aquifer in 1903. Probably someone back then. It really wasn't a bad idea at the time. I'm sure that they will do less and less as they run out of water.

Roberto has a point that the farming will be cut before the cost to residents is driven sky high.

YesYNot,

I can't read. Sorry you missed the symbolism that Arizona might be looking at an empty bucket.

They already cut water to Imperial county farmers and routed it to San Diego residents. Though I wonder why they can't build a pipeline from say WA and/or OR and bring it down here. MS and LA too have surplus water-they could route it to TX-that is reeling under a drought.

Oops-I guess public works/big govt??

HEY YOU says

I can't read. Sorry you missed the symbolism that Arizona might be looking at an empty bucket.

OK, I guess I still am not sure exactly what you were talking about, but that is fine.

“the Southwest must cut its water use by about SIXTY percent to bring water supplies into balance, given projections of longer, deeper droughts in the decades ahead”

http://www.paysonroundup.com/news/2012/sep/21/studies-show-southwest-faces-water-shortage/

WAH WAH WAH doomers QQQing about everything? Listen up!! Take the time you post all this water stuff in the LAND (real estate duh) section and instead spend it FANTASIZING about your future riches from buying as many houses as you can and renting them out to idiots you will be rich in no time. You gotta trust the duck on this one, it’s a can’t miss strategy! CHOOBACHOOBACHOO (Also Patrick please delete this thread it is Liable!)

"Increased groundwater pumping to support population growth in south-central Arizona (including the Tucson and Phoenix areas) has resulted in water-level declines of between 300 and 500 feet in much of the area."

http://ga.water.usgs.gov/edu/gwdepletion.html