patrick.net

Carolyn C says

I hear you. If it were not for all the investors I would have a home by now.

If you rent you pretty much have a home, in the same sense or even better than most owners of a 30 yr note.

I would continue to rent just so that I wouldn't have to deal with these pervert Realtors.

jvolstad says

I would continue to rent just so that I wouldn't have to deal with these pervert Realtors.

I do both. I continue to rent and go to a few open houses each month just to eat their cookies and screw with them. I talk like I am very interested and say I am an all cash buyer and ask how much above asking do they think I need to go. They are like puppies and they can't stop shaking when excited. It is good entertainment on a weekend.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

I continue to rent and go to a few open houses each month just to eat their cookies and screw with them.

When I'm home (Texas) on the weekend, I like to tell the open house Realtard's that I'm from the Bay Area and am looking for a house. It's interesting to hear them tell me all their lies about the area.

E-man says

People like to refer to the Case Shiller Housing Price Index. By the time you see C-S HPI published, it's too late. It's like driving looking at the rearview mirror. Things may change after the election. Too many people are hanging onto their house by a string hoping for some miracle from the candidates.

Yeah right! This housing market(CA) is not going anywhere soon. Plenty of time to choose and pick,so it is never too late to buy in CA.

Just pulling in a few more suckers.

CrazyMan says

Just pulling in a few more suckers.

Haha. I keep forgetting that part. Suckers at every stage all the way to the bottom.

Carolyn C says

So why in the world didn't you two guys mention this 5 months ago. Now here I am trying to find a descent home in Oakland in the $360,000 price range. This is my first home and not and investment property.

Joined less than a month. The best time to buy is 2010, I bought in early 2011. My buying experience is that you need to be the greatest fool i.e. overbid to get the house that you want. I bid 10% above asking price. Based on recent houses sold, estimated that price had since shot up by more than 10%.

hanera says

Based on recent houses sold, estimated that price had since shot up by more than 10%.

The home owners wet dream. You might have been lucky and got something discounted 10% so now it looks great. However, we are going nowhere fast. The best time to buy for deals will always be around. The best time for most to buy is still into the future IMHO. Just wait for the banks to return to banks rather than empty house holding companies.

robertoaribas says

Carolyn:

if it is at all possible, get the hell out of the bay area forever... I went to UC Berkeley, then I lived in LA for 3 years, and that was it for me. If I'm going to pay those kind of living prices, i'll move to Hawaii...

There are many many nice places to live, that have reasonable costs of living...

Good advice. There are a lot of nice coastal areas in California that are much more affordable compared to the bay area. Consider moving north or south.

I've noticed prices creeping down sloowwly in my area, and it seems that certain parts of the east coast, inventories have shot up and prices are starting to move down again.

I believe a lot of what we're seeing is underwater homedebtors testing the market. There are 2 individuals in my family trying get out from under their mortgage - but are crazy upside down.

Don't rush it - educate yourself, and when your comfortable, jump in. But if you're not comfortable just sit on the side lines. It's a big decision.

jvolstad says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

I continue to rent and go to a few open houses each month just to eat their cookies and screw with them.

When I'm home (Texas) on the weekend, I like to tell the open house Realtard's that I'm from the Bay Area and am looking for a house. It's interesting to hear them tell me all their lies about the area.

Same thing happened when I looked back east. They try to sell you homes that have been on the market for MONTHS in trashy areas, but lie because they think you don't know the area.

The Grasshopper and the Ant

The Grasshopper having sung
All the summer long,
Found herself lacking food
When the North Wind began its song.
Not a single little piece
Of fly or grub did she have to eat.

She went complaining of hunger
To the Ant's home, her neighbour,
Begging there for a loan
Of some grain to keep herself alive
Til the next season did arrive,
"I shall pay you," she said
"Before next August, on my word as an animal.
I'll pay both interest and pricipal."

The Ant was not so inclined:
this not being one of her faults.
"What did you do all summer?
Said she to the grasshopper.

"Night and day I sang,
I hope that does not displease you."

"You sang? I will not look askance.
But now my neighbour it's time to dance."

While we're not looking at foreclosures as much, I will say that we too have run into a situation where seemingly the house will go pending with supposed multiple offers. But interestingly enough I'd say that at least half of these go back on the market. There was one house we looked at that had a crazy selling history: It had gone pending no less than 3 times in the last year. Its pending again so we'll see. Yet another one just up the street from us -also a foreclosure- has gone pending 2 times so far.

Just because a home supposedly has multiple offers and goes pending doesn't really mean anything.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

hanera says

Based on recent houses sold, estimated that price had since shot up by more than 10%.

The home owners wet dream. You might have been lucky and got something discounted 10% so now it looks great. However, we are going nowhere fast. The best time to buy for deals will always be around. The best time for most to buy is still into the future IMHO. Just wait for the banks to return to banks rather than empty house holding companies.

I bought it for my son who would need it after he graduates, currently renting it out at purchase price/annual rent = 300 which is much lower than 478 as indicated on patrick's list.

robertoaribas says

The reality is, that right now, the supply/demand imbalance more or less guarantees price increases for the next several months.

...next several months....and then what?

Carolyn C says

All I heard on this site was how stupid people are going to feel when prices fell this summer. So I (like an idiot) took my sweet time applying for a loan. Now I cant find anything worth buying and prices are higher than they were just three months before.

Carolyn, I feel ya. We are exactly in the same spot.

We started looking in January, and by looking at the comps I see a ton of houses that sold last fall that were in our price range.

Now, not very many. I DO feel like we should have bought last year, and can only hope that things improve by the summer.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

If you rent you pretty much have a home, in the same sense or even better than most owners of a 30 yr note.

13 years later and 250K into rent, I'm done. Too old to deal with imperious, greedy landlords, and due to the "rental bubble" happening right now there's no way we can switch rentals.

I'd like to buy before my kids move out and/or before I retire.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

It is good entertainment on a weekend.

I'd rather be done with all this and get a decent place to live.

Going to open houses on weekends even though you don't plan on buying?! Maybe you need a hobby?

I'd rather be surfing.

robertoaribas says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

However, we are going nowhere fast. The best time to buy for deals will always be around.

You just have to love the empty mindless speculation on this site...

"I don't know where your home is, or the first thing about it, or the market there... but the price hasn't gone up" Good logical deduction!

Carolyn is posting her actual unbiased experiences, as to what the market is like today, and a bunch of nitwits dismiss it because it doesn't fit their preconceived notions of what should be happening!

Prices are still falling. Take your lumps and stop your whining. Down another 5-10% next year, and next, and next, and next. Get ready or become part of the foreclosure problem.

Oh wait, prices are rising on the east bay. I guess this data is wrong then. SF -4.1% ATL -17%. Because I didn't buy the 1mil home in SF I just got 41K richer! Yahoo. Now, who is your daddy. Keep buying up your 50K condos in the meth areas. We are talking about real homes here. ;)

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/crashing-us-housing-metro-areas-atlanta-home-values-post-bubble-low-las-vegas-reos-foreclosures/

BayArea says

Are you kidding me? 25 offers and instead of taking the highest/best offer, the bank scraps all offers and requests that everyone resubmit a higher offer? Really, this is actually legal?

Yep. And this is how banks generally handle multiple offers.BayArea says

Please submit by email your client's best offer. Please send details. It might be price, contingencies, earnest amount, etc… The bank will require the price on the contract even if property doesn't appraise.

NEED YOUR CLIENTS RESPONSE BY TOMORROW THE 25th OF April, at Noon."

Yep. As frustrating as it is for buyers, it's efficient for the sellers, and they are the ones calling the shots.BayArea says

It is a buyer's frenzy right now! If these don't go, I may just have to stand back and wait for inventories to increase because this is just crazy.

Are you in the South Bay?

gregpfielding says

Yep. As frustrating as it is for buyers, it's efficient for the sellers, and they are the ones calling the shots

Starve the sellers and they won't be calling the shots much longer. Let all the fools rush in to buy up overpriced homes. I'll buy them back for 20-30% less in a few years and be their savior. Prices are falling and there is no reason for that to stop. You'll be thanking the other 24 idiots in a few years.

Carolyn C says

So why in the world didn't you two guys mention this 5 months ago. Now here I am trying to find a descent home in Oakland in the $360,000 price range. This is my first home and not and investment property. I can't find anything descent that was available the last couple of years. All I heard on this site was how stupid people are going to feel when prices fell this summer. So I (like an idiot) took my sweet time applying for a loan. Now I cant find anything worth buying and prices are higher than they were just three months before. If you would have shared your profound insight months ago, I wouldn't be looking at crappy homes in east Oakland with my three kids. Thanks for the heads up!

That's what happens when you listen to the perma bears. There were plenty of people here saying exactly that and usually we get labeled as realturds.

Now of course its....don't worry it'll come back down...once this bounce is done. LOL.

It's like gamblers in vegas - RED HAS TO HIT....Boing! ...BLACK

Good luck with your hunt. It's always frustrating, I feel your pain.

SubOink says

Now of course its....don't worry it'll come back down...once this bounce is done. LOL.

The OP is trying to find a descent home in Oakland for 360K range. She is bottom feeding and trying to get that once in a lifetime deal. That is not indicative of the general market trend which is down and will continue to be down. Deals come and go, people with patience will get them, people without will come here and think they missed the timing. The timing is still in the future when the country of freeloaders get booted out of the banks homes. I suspect Oakland has a lot of them, so instead of feeling frustrated, get yourself ready. All the housing Bull here are only bulls because they have huge investment into the stock. It is hard to find a renter that is a bull nowadays.

How come if some of us have a firm grasp of the obvious we are called names?
Why do people assume this lady Carolyn just up and move to another area? Doesn't she need to have income somewhere else to pay either rent or a mortgage?
The other guys who post saying "WE have been looking....etc." makes me chuckle. Yeah, a woman is in there somewhere demanding her nest.
Don't you miss the good old days when they'd have sex in a car, and were not so picky?

1sfrenter says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

It is good entertainment on a weekend.

I'd rather be done with all this and get a decent place to live.

Going to open houses on weekends even though you don't plan on buying?! Maybe you need a hobby?

I'd rather be surfing.

Curious.

I recently came to the conclusion that attempting to purchase a home right now in Los Angeles is rather futile. Simply put, theres not enough homes for sale.

For reference, the areas I'm targeting are Burbank as a first choice and Lakewood as a second choice. I've also peeked at the Northeast LA area, but Glendale and Eagle Rock are too expensive and I'm unconvinced I'll be happy in Highland Park or Glassell Park.

Income is $75-100K range, and I'd have 20% down. Looking at sub $400K, prefer under $320K(which doesn't exist at all in these areas).

2bd/2ba, 1400 sq ft minimum. Non busy street, no apartment buildings next door. Will look at cosmetic fixers in the lower end of my price range.

So since all the above is NOT feasible at the moment, I looked around to see what rents are doing where I live and in surrounding areas.

My current rent is $1640/mo in DTLA for 840 sq ft, no view. I looked around and found:

1070 sq ft for $1710/mo and a great view.
870 sq ft for $1750/mo and a stellar view in an outstanding location.

Furthermore, if I'm willing to take on a commute(which I'd be doing by buying in Burbank or Lakewood), I can save a substantial amount of money by moving into a 1 bedroom apartment in Sherman Oaks. As documented in another thread, this is an upper middle class, safe, nice, even trendy, suburb of LA...basically the nicest part of the SFV. Rents on a one bedroom range $925-1050/mo.

All of this is SUPER EASY to do...takes me one day to pack, one day to move, one day to unpack. I'm one person. Theres simply not that much stuff. Cost is $500 at absolute most(uhaul is very inexpensive and I saved boxes from my last move, 3 people as labor..I don't even see how it will cost $500...last move cost me $210).

So what my point of posting all this is...I keep seeing this or similiar comments:

"I'd rather be done with all this and get a decent place to live".

Thing is, I have a decent place to live. And if I CHOOSE to move(obv no ones forcing me...thats a REALLY stupid notion), I'll still have a decent place to live.

And it all makes me wonder why people use stupid trivial bits of realtor spewsense to justify potentially terrible life decisions.

It took 6 years but the government finally 'put a floor under house prices' with all the massive efforts we all know about.

Obama actually said in 2007 'we need to put a floor under house prices' - he did it!!! I guess its time to load up on 10 SFR's in vegas,FL,AZ then flip them into red hotels like monopoly game.

dodgerfanjohn says

Thing is, I have a decent place to live. And if I CHOOSE to move(obv no ones forcing me...thats a REALLY stupid notion), I'll still have a decent place to live.

Chasing cheaper rentals is all well and good when you are young and childless. I did it for almost 20 years, no problem. Lived in some great places, too.

But finding a decent rental when you have kids and dogs, not so much. Throw in the piano and furniture for a family of 4, it's more than just getting a bunch of boxes on craigslist.

I enjoyed my 20's and 30's lifestyle and really love the way my life is now. What I don't love is the landlord "inspecting" (imperious nosybodying), the rent increases, and the fact that very long-term renting in an expensive area (renter in SF for 22 years now) eventually means a whole lot of money .

I'd rather rent money from the bank than rent my home from a landlord. Either way, I'm paying for housing, but with owning it's possible (not a sure bet, I know) that after 10-20 years there may be some return other than just a roof over my head. If not, then no biggie, I had to pay for housing either way.

It's like the difference between people who like working for themselves and being their own boss and people that prefer a regular paycheck that comes with having a job and a boss.

Individual preference.

I'd still rather be surfing.

So, just out of curiosity, the comments here seem to indicate either investors or folks looking for homes in the sub-400k range. I'd say that our range is at a max of 550k or so. We don't seem to be finding that much of a flurry of activity in that price range. So when people say there's " No supply", are we talking about the extreme bottom level of the market?

edvard2 says

So, just out of curiosity, the comments here seem to indicate either investors or folks looking for homes in the sub-400k range.

Depends on where you are looking. We are looking in the high 500's and it's a zoo here in SF. Put an offer an a house yesterday for 18K over 599K asking. Doubtful we'll get it.

1sfrenter says

Going to open houses on weekends even though you don't plan on buying?! Maybe you need a hobby?

I do it while I am doing my hobby. ;) That is how I get there. Sometimes I am actually on my way to another hobby also. Call be crazy, but talking to realtards gives me the best indication of the market vibe. Sometimes it is not the lies they say, but what they don't say that is interesting. Each year in the BA the climate changes. I do plan to buy at some point, but this purchase is large, so I will take my time. If it takes 2,3, 4 or more years then that is what it is. If I never buy in the BA (doubt that), then I'll take the cash and go buy something without a mortgage in the other 99% of the country. Easy solution to a touch BA issue.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Each year in the BA the climate changes.

It's global warming.

1sfrenter says

Depends on where you are looking. We are looking in the high 500's and it's a zoo here in SF. Put an offer an a house yesterday for 18K over 599K asking. Doubtful we'll get it.

600K in SF was unheard of back in 2007, so everything is relative. You would be lucky to get a double wide garage for 600K in 2007. It probably wouldn't have heating either, just a broken up garage with a view of nothing. You are talking about SF, one of the most expensive with the most liability of damage, price depreciation, etc. If you play in that space then make sure you where an adult size diaper.

We are putting in an offer for 615K on a 1800 sq. ft SFH on 120 ft. lot with double garage.

Still too expensive, but when all is said and done, roughly equivalent to renting the same house.

6 months ago, I think this house would have sold for 615. But the way it's been going this spring, I'm not so sure.

SFH in this nabe sold for 800K at the peak. Most back down to about 500-600K or less. Not sure how much lower SF proper will go..

1sfrenter says

We are putting in an offer for 615K on a 1800 sq. ft SFH on 120 ft. lot with double garage.

SF and the Peninsula aren't even on our radar. Those places are hopelessly overpriced, always have been, and thus there's no reason even trying. We're looking exclusively in the east bay.

dodgerfanjohn says

Simply put, theres not enough homes for sale.

That's only because banks are actively manipulating supply in a last gasp attempt to reflate a bubble in order to hide their losses and collect fees -- a strategy that is temporarily working for them. IOW it has nothing to do with real inventory or supply and demand.

Again, one should try to avoid the saucer-eyed, froth-soaked market tips from all the backyard "investors" on here. If they really had a good thing going, do you think they'd be sharing it anonymously and for free? (No.)

BayArea says

"Counter Offer - Need Highest and Best, there are 10 offers at this time.
Please submit by email your client's best offer. Please send details. It might be price, contingencies, earnest amount, etc… The bank will require the price on the contract even if property doesn't appraise.

Nope this practice hasnt stopped.. even though prices have fallen..

Fact is, prices over couple years have fallen and that provides some proof, that multiple offers really arent there.

robertoaribas says

So, you want to balance your pure speculation, versus observable market supply and demand?

Who's speculating? Market manipulation is most readily observable. That you would argue what we are seeing in the marketplace is anything approaching organic supply and demand is seriously unbelievable to me. I mean to say, I just don't believe you're being serious. I'm actually giving you some credit here.

Also, who cares, if prices go up 20% in the next year while we wait for this tsunami of foreclosures,

What would be the engine for a 20% rise? A new and growing clutch of nosepickers on the courthouse steps outbidding one another for another positive cash flow property, before gradually undercutting one another's profits in the process? Yeah...ok.

what is to say they don't leak them out for 5 years and the economy improves?

This assumes that there's some kind of elaborate methodology which has been developed for metering the release of the properties at a Goldilocks rate so as to best avoid saturation. That's much more far fetched than the tsunami idea.

Then prices might never drop, or only drop a small amount...

Or they might continue their slow motion drop and overshoot in certain markets, as all previous asset bubbles have done. Or they might straddle the bottom for a generation or more.

http://reut.rs/JnCC5q

I'm a data guy, you go do all of your guessing you like.

Actually, I find the ratio of bluster to substance from you highly in favor of the former.

robertoaribas says

what is to say they don't leak them out for 5 years and the economy improves?

Because 1 out of 5 in this country doesn't work? Because real inflation is not 2%. Because 23% of home owners with mortgages are underwater. Because at the current rate of absorption the existing shadow inventory (not including the future foreclosures) would take 7 years. Because even if the gov't stopped paying all the public workers and services (no spending) we would still not even come close to paying down the debt in our lifetime. We actually wouldn't even get ahead of it! Because because because.

That is speculation? Huh?

"what is to say they don't leak them out for 5 years and the economy improves?"

Yep. The last FASB bulletin I saw on the subject said MTM rules will be suspended until "at least" 2016. So for sure we have 4 more years of leakage ahead...

Austinhousingbubble says

I'm a data guy, you go do all of your guessing you like.

Actually, I find the ratio of bluster to substance from you highly in favor of the former.

Couldn't agree more here. People think they are all data, when they are just throwing out wild speculations. We have been in a down market, nothing and I repeat nothing indicates that this train is turning around. I challenge anyone to show me some good data on housing. The only thing that happen over the last 5 years that was good, was a big portion of our tax money going to bail out the owners in trouble. I didn't sign up for that.