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Is Bay Area housing crash over?


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2012 Feb 27, 1:41am   93,966 views  406 comments

by fewy   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Like many of you here I have been waiting for the prices in the bay area to come falling back to earth. Over the past year, the things that I'm seeing make me believe that a huge correction will no longer happen and the prices in most area's have already corrected themselves.

The main reason why the Bay Area was spared from the large housing crash seems to come from the fact that the great recession didn't hit us as hard as other places. This let people keep their jobs and save money. Now as the U.S. is coming out of this recession, the stock market is rising, and people in the Bay Area didn't get scared of investing in housing because there was no major housing crash. We might get a good rise in housing prices. The last example that turned my opinion around is the amount of homes for sale in santa clara county. The inventory is half of what it used to be last year and it seems like the inventory that comes onto the market is quickly bought up. What do you guys think?

#housing

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347   tiny tina   2012 Mar 6, 12:54am  

RentingForHalfTheCost says

My answer (and it is of the Yes or No form) is the opposite of your answer to the following question.

The last time you cheated on your spouse did you feel any guilt?
1) Yes
2) No

There, you have my answer and it met your requirement. ;)

Your answer did not meet the requirement. And it's not my requirement, it's your stupid requirement.

The requirement was selecting only yes or no, not merely having yes and/or no in the answer. Learn how to comprehend. Your attempt to be clever backfired.

Anyway, if you ever have some cash and want me to represent you for your purchase in Monta Vista, let me know and I'll go take the test. Otherwise, keep hoping for prices to drop to $300k when they are currently selling for $1M+. What's the saying...put hope in one hand and crap in the other and see which fills up first.

348   RentingForHalfTheCost   2012 Mar 6, 4:01am  

tiny tina says

Anyway, if you ever have some cash and want me to represent you for your purchase in Monta Vista, let me know and I'll go take the test.

Don't really need any representation. The cash in hand is representation enough. Soon 600K cash will get me that Saratoga/Monte Vista house that can be lived in. I'll wait. If the gov't keeps pumping up the market it will only mean the inevitable will happen even harder. This country is on a one way road. The only plan we can develop right now is how to pick ourselves up after we fall. The time it took me to write this note, we just went another 10 million in the hole. That is about 1000 houses in Stockton right now. Kapput! Gone! Never to return.

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

349   freak80   2012 Mar 6, 4:11am  

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Soon 600K cash will get me that Saratoga/Monte Vista house that can be lived in. I'll wait. If the gov't keeps pumping up the market it will only mean the inevitable will happen even harder.

Except that the scumbags at the Fed are printing money to keep nominal house prices from correcting. Got to protect the Big Banks from their own mistakes.

That's the problem. The Fed holds the cards in this sucker's game. Will the Fed keep printing money for a decade? If so, maybe you should get into debt and "buy" a house. Will the Fed opt for sound money and low inflaction? Then rent until prices correct.

We're at the mercy of the Fed.

350   rootvg   2012 Mar 6, 4:21am  

RentingForHalfTheCost says

tiny tina says

Anyway, if you ever have some cash and want me to represent you for your purchase in Monta Vista, let me know and I'll go take the test.

Don't really need any representation. The cash in hand is representation enough. Soon 600K cash will get me that Saratoga/Monte Vista house that can be lived in. I'll wait. If the gov't keeps pumping up the market it will only mean the inevitable will happen even harder. This country is on a one way road. The only plan we can develop right now is how to pick ourselves up after we fall. The time it took me to write this note, we just went another 10 million in the hole. That is about 1000 houses in Stockton right now. Kapput! Gone! Never to return.

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

If they put us on the Amero, those Dollars may not go as far as you planned.

Keep in mind what Lou Rukeyser always said. People have been betting against us since 1776 and they're always wrong. Talk to people who were around during the Great Depression. Talk to people who were in World War II, a war in which the Germans almost beat us and didn't only because of our natural resources. They're all gonna tell you the same thing.

My realtor got a call on Friday from a friend of hers, demanding to know why the house we bought sold as cheaply as it did. I guess there's a foreclosure at the other end of the street, that smells like mold inside and they're asking $799K for it. We got ours for almost two hundred thousand less.

If you're actually waiting on Saratoga to come down to the $600K range, you're gonna wait a long time. Bernanke would never allow it to happen and the next Fed chief (coming sooner than you think) won't either. People would be standing outside their offices with pitchforks.

And don't bother with the snide, silly comments. I was raised in this business and in the financial services business, remember? I thought everyone's dad owned three pairs of wing tips, a suit for each day of the week and got rid of his cars every three years. No one told me different.

351   Patrick   2012 Mar 6, 4:58am  

tiny tina says

Patrick: Is there any city in the US where the upper tier of housing is in line with rents? I checked into San Antonio (very little bubble if any) and Asheville, NC (not sure if there was a bubble there) and they have plenty of million dollar houses with rents around $3k.

Edit: A list of cities would be better than just finding one.

Yes, pretty much everything in the middle of the country is reasonable even at the high end. It's the coasts that are bad deals for high-end buyers (compared to renting the same thing there).

I should definitely do an analysis and publish a list of cities.

352   rootvg   2012 Mar 6, 5:29am  


tiny tina says

Patrick: Is there any city in the US where the upper tier of housing is in line with rents? I checked into San Antonio (very little bubble if any) and Asheville, NC (not sure if there was a bubble there) and they have plenty of million dollar houses with rents around $3k.

Edit: A list of cities would be better than just finding one.

Yes, pretty much everything in the middle of the country is reasonable even at the high end. It's the coasts that are bad deals for high-end buyers (compared to renting the same thing there).

I should definitely do an analysis and publish a list of cities.

That doesn't tell you anything?

Where I went to college, they would tell us it's about supply and demand and it's also about attracting talent for the jobs that exist in those regions which DO NOT exist in flyover country. That's precisely why my wife and I ended up here. This is one of the issues no one's talking about that's hurting Ohio right now. All the talent is gone or planning on leaving due to the demographic death spiral that's going on there. Upper and upper middle class Ohioans retire to Arizona and Florida leaving behind legions of half blind diabetic retired autoworkers and their families who never saved a dime. Forty percent of Ohio's state budget goes for indigent health care...and the aspiring young professionals fleeing those conditions are being sucked up into the maelstrom of housing markets like San Francisco, Los Angeles and Seattle.

It also means the situation isn't likely to change. This is why Danville, Alamo, Lafayette, San Ramon (to a lesser extent because it's bigger and newer) and Saratoga haven't come down a whole lot. Yeah...you can go live in Fremont or Hayward but who the fuck wants to do that unless you have to? Who wants to do that if you worked your ass off for four years of college only to end up living in the United Colors of Benetton?

353   freak80   2012 Mar 6, 5:57am  

rootvg says

Bernanke would never allow it to happen and the next Fed chief (coming sooner than you think) won't either. People would be standing outside their offices with pitchforks.

Yep. The Fed holds the cards in this game.

354   freak80   2012 Mar 6, 6:01am  

rootvg says

Upper and upper middle class Ohioans retire to Arizona and Florida leaving behind legions of half blind diabetic retired autoworkers and their families who never saved a dime.

Thats' the best description of the Rust Belt I've seen so far.

355   rootvg   2012 Mar 6, 6:03am  

wthrfrk80 says

rootvg says

Upper and upper middle class Ohioans retire to Arizona and Florida leaving behind legions of half blind diabetic retired autoworkers and their families who never saved a dime.

Thats' the best description of the Rust Belt I've seen so far.

I can describe it because I've seen it up close.

356   rootvg   2012 Mar 6, 7:24am  

wthrfrk80 says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Well, we are close. We have money being lent to people who know how to use creative income reporting.

True that. That's the downside of lending to "creative" people. From what I can see of the whole housing bubble fiasco out there, there are a lot of "creative" people in the Bay Area. And they caused plenty of "collateral damage" to the rest of the economy.

There are a lot of "creative" people in the Bay Area who don't have a lick of common sense and have been raised in upper middle class circumstances which they take for granted.

That IS the issue here, and it's everywhere. When you hire a general contractor, you see it. When you go to a restaurant, you see it. When you go to work and look at people in the other cubes, you see it. When I come back from a few hours with a flight instructor and see a Baby Boomer wench in the expensive jogging outfit who's paying her bill at the FBO, I see it.

I guess the point I want to make is, what we see here is NOT NORMAL. People do not carry on like this in other parts of the country. People do not have money like this in other parts of the country. This is an economic and cultural BUBBLE. It's Disneyland...but if you're gonna live in Disneyland, you have to make some adjustments. You need to make good money. You need to have a solid moral foundation. You need to have some discipline.

You also need to be realist...and if that means you want to live a certain way or if you don't want your wife to work or if she can't for whatever reason, you might have to leave the area. A lot of the issues I see posted here about cost of living and housing, etc in the various parts of the Bay Area could be easily interchanged with Arlington (northern Virginia) or Brookline (Boston suburbs) or Chevy Chase (southern MD burbs of DC) or even Plano (far north Dallas suburbs) or a dozen other places. It costs money to live in a desirable area especially when the Chinese are flooding in here with Dollars we gave them, looking to invest.

Here again, is there some important point I've missed?

357   B.A.C.A.H.   2012 Mar 6, 10:43am  

rootvg says

is there some important point I've missed?

rootvg, It sounds like the point you are missing is that you don't belong here. Your opinions about many of your neighbors proves it:
rootvg says

the Bay Area IS irrational behavior and the sick part of it is, it pays.

rootvg says

Did you also know SF was at one time a Republican town? Yes! Before the military started discharging faggots here

rootvg says

I'm not phobic at all. I don't like them. I think they're subhuman. They're chronically angry at the world, perpetually unstable emotionally and aspire to corrupt everything they touch. They hate middle America and everything it stands for.

They also just about own the Democratic party.

It used to be a faggot couldn't get a security clearance to do defense work because someone could blackmail them

358   rootvg   2012 Mar 6, 10:47am  

What that tells me is you're one of them, looking to score points.

Take your best shot, but remember I'll look upon that as a license to chew on you like a rabid dog. I've been doing this for VERY long time.

I stand behind everything I've said...and there's NOTHING you can do about it.

359   Bigsby   2012 Mar 6, 10:52am  

Aren't there laws against such hate-filled bollocks? Rootvg, it's not gay people who are the problem, it's people like you.

360   rootvg   2012 Mar 6, 10:59am  

Bigsby says

Aren't there laws against such hate-filled bollocks? Rootvg, it's not gay people who are the problem, it's people like you.

You've been in California too long.

I haven't committed any crime and I won't. Being an perpetually unstable drama queen accustomed to people genuflecting in your presence is YOUR problem, not mine. Where I'm from, you shut up and behave like an adult. You're not royalty there because you don't control the political process. You don't have a mob to do your bidding.

361   Bigsby   2012 Mar 6, 11:08am  

rootvg says

Bigsby says

Aren't there laws against such hate-filled bollocks? Rootvg, it's not gay people who are the problem, it's people like you.

You've been in California too long.

I haven't committed any crime and I won't. Being an perpetually unstable drama queen accustomed to people genuflecting in your presence is YOUR problem, not mine. Where I'm from, you shut up and behave like an adult. You're not royalty there because you don't control the political process. You don't have a mob to do your bidding.

I don't live in California. And hell, why don't you follow your own bloody advice - "Where I'm from, you shut up and behave like an adult." That would be preferable to your frothing-at-the-mouth, bulging-eyed bigotry.

362   rootvg   2012 Mar 6, 11:15am  

Bigsby says

rootvg says

Bigsby says

Aren't there laws against such hate-filled bollocks? Rootvg, it's not gay people who are the problem, it's people like you.

You've been in California too long.

I haven't committed any crime and I won't. Being an perpetually unstable drama queen accustomed to people genuflecting in your presence is YOUR problem, not mine. Where I'm from, you shut up and behave like an adult. You're not royalty there because you don't control the political process. You don't have a mob to do your bidding.

I don't live in California. And hell, why don't you follow your own bloody advice - "Where I'm from, you shut up and behave like an adult." That would be preferable to your frothing-at-the-mouth, bulging-eyed bigotry.

Here again, I'm not the type who's easily intimidated.

I'm not a drama queen. I'm not unstable. I'm not a flake.

You'll just have to deal with me another way.

Remember: wings level, nose down, flaps up.

Think, don't feel. Feeling is destructive. If you're flying an airplane, feeling will get you and whoever is with you killed. Thinking and acting accordingly will probably save your life.

363   B.A.C.A.H.   2012 Mar 6, 11:45am  

Hey rootvg,

where do you work?

364   rootvg   2012 Mar 6, 11:46am  

B.A.C.A.H. says

Hey rootvg,

where do you work?

Wouldn't you like to know!

365   B.A.C.A.H.   2012 Mar 6, 11:46am  

Hey rootvg, are you telling some of your coworkers and some of your management what you think about them?

366   rootvg   2012 Mar 6, 11:49am  

Most of the people I work with are in another state and the ones I do interact with on a daily basis think as I do.

I'm not giving you any information. You may as well stop digging.

367   B.A.C.A.H.   2012 Mar 6, 11:57am  

Hey rootvg why not? Won't you stand by what you wrote?


rootvg says

the Bay Area IS irrational behavior and the sick part of it is, it pays.

rootvg says

Did you also know SF was at one time a Republican town? Yes! Before the military started discharging faggots here

rootvg says

I'm not phobic at all. I don't like them. I think they're subhuman. They're chronically angry at the world, perpetually unstable emotionally and aspire to corrupt everything they touch. They hate middle America and everything it stands for.

They also just about own the Democratic party.

It used to be a faggot couldn't get a security clearance to do defense work because someone could blackmail them

368   rootvg   2012 Mar 6, 12:08pm  

B.A.C.A.H. says

Hey rootvg why not? Won't you stand by what you wrote?

rootvg says

the Bay Area IS irrational behavior and the sick part of it is, it pays.

rootvg says

Did you also know SF was at one time a Republican town? Yes! Before the military started discharging faggots here

rootvg says

I'm not phobic at all. I don't like them. I think they're subhuman. They're chronically angry at the world, perpetually unstable emotionally and aspire to corrupt everything they touch. They hate middle America and everything it stands for.

They also just about own the Democratic party.

It used to be a faggot couldn't get a security clearance to do defense work because someone could blackmail them

There is one story I want to tell.

During the Kerry campaign in 2004, there was a meeting of supporters that was carried by C-SPAN. Everything they've ever done is catalogued now and I've been trying to dig it up but can't remember the details. There was one gay supporter (a real drama queen) who went off like a mental patient on whoever it was chairing the meeting, saying Kerry wasn't a strong enough supporter of their cause. It was really something to watch, saying his support "wasn't good enough". This is a grown man squealing like a pig and squirming in his seat like a little girl who had to use the restroom, all caught on live on camera by C-SPAN. That was when I thought back to what my prof had said in 1991 about how everything these people touch, they seek to corrupt. In one flash, it all came together.

I have other stories like that to tell. If you keep picking a fight, I'll tell them here.

369   Bigsby   2012 Mar 6, 12:11pm  

rootvg says

Think, don't feel. Feeling is destructive. If you're flying an airplane, feeling will get you and whoever is with you killed. Thinking and acting accordingly will probably save your life.

Give me strength. Why don't you follow your own advice? You're not thinking at all.

370   Bigsby   2012 Mar 6, 12:17pm  

rootvg says

There is one story I want to tell.

During the Kerry campaign in 2004, there was a meeting of supporters that was carried by C-SPAN. Everything they've ever done is catalogued now and I've been trying to dig it up but can't remember the details. There was one supporter who really went off on whoever it was chairing the meeting, saying Kerry wasn't a strong enough supporter of their cause. It was really something to watch...saying his support "wasn't good enough". This is a grown man squealing like a pig and squirming in his seat like a little girl who had to use the restroom...all caught on live on camera by C-SPAN. That was when I thought back to what my prof had said in 1991 about how everything these people touch, they seek to corrupt. In one flash, it all came together.

I have other stories like that to tell. If you keep picking a fight, I'll tell them here.

Wow, that's a stunning story. Really, I'm stunned. Stunned at how ridiculous it is. What exactly has all that got to do with you calling gay people sub-human?

371   Katy Perry   2012 Mar 6, 12:23pm  

Is Bay Area housing crash over?

ask the same question next year this time.

372   B.A.C.A.H.   2012 Mar 6, 12:30pm  

rootvg says

I'll tell them here.

Please do.

Your gay neighbors, gay vendors, gay coworkers, gay management, gay customers, gay civil servants like the gay coworkers and gay management of your public sector spouse and the gay taxpayers who support her, are also Americans like you and like me and like Bigsby.

It's not just your bigotry against gays that is offensive. It's your bigotry against Americans that is offensive, too.

Please tell us, please educate us.

373   Buster   2012 Mar 6, 3:17pm  

Patrick: Please don't allow your site to become yet another extension of the extremist, bigoted, christainist, right wing blogosphere. "rootvg" has absolutely nothing constructive or reasoned to say about anything and is only here to show off his anti gay hate and intellectually stunted brain. I am not against hate speech of the likes of rootvg's posts, I just prefer not to go to places where such hate is tolerated or supported by the blog owner or blog community. Please censor this ass. Thanks.

374   Buster   2012 Mar 6, 3:40pm  

I also just noted your comment policy: "Comment Policy: Insult Another User, Go To Jail" Please send rootvg to jail. Thanks.

375   thomas.wong1986   2012 Mar 6, 4:01pm  

Buster says

Patrick: Please don't allow your site to become yet another extension of the extremist, bigoted, christainist, right wing blogosphere

Im also a Christian and a Republican Conservative... Am i yet another extension of the extremism you dislike.. dont you think you need to re-edit your comments ?

There are plenty of left-wing bigots on Patricks, but who complains ?

376   grinderman   2012 Mar 6, 4:34pm  

Buster says

Patrick: Please don't allow your site to become yet another extension of the extremist, bigoted, christainist, right wing blogosphere. "rootvg" has absolutely nothing constructive or reasoned to say about anything and is only here to show off his anti gay hate and intellectually stunted brain. I am not against hate speech of the likes of rootvg's posts, I just prefer not to go to places where such hate is tolerated or supported by the blog owner or blog community. Please censor this ass. Thanks.

He is entitled to his opinion and let's face it . It is much better to have these people express their views online rather than in the real world .

377   JodyChunder   2012 Mar 6, 5:08pm  

Bigsby says

Think, don't feel. Feeling is destructive. If you're flying an airplane, feeling will get you and whoever is with you killed. Thinking and acting accordingly will probably save your life.

ah, but science has proven that cognition is not separate from emtions; no decision can be arrived at without feelings. Feelings are important! AND I HAVE THEM!

378   Bigsby   2012 Mar 6, 5:22pm  

I think you'll find that it was rootvg who said that rather than me.

379   rootvg   2012 Mar 7, 12:26am  

JodyChunder says

Bigsby says

Think, don't feel. Feeling is destructive. If you're flying an airplane, feeling will get you and whoever is with you killed. Thinking and acting accordingly will probably save your life.

ah, but science has proven that cognition is not separate from emtions; no decision can be arrived at without feelings. Feelings are important! AND I HAVE THEM!

I'll make sure and tell the NTSB guy what you said.

380   Buster   2012 Mar 7, 12:27am  

thomas.wong1986 says

Buster says

Patrick: Please don't allow your site to become yet another extension of the extremist, bigoted, christainist, right wing blogosphere

Thomas, I don't have a problem with you being a conservative christian republican. I do have a problem with bigoted christianists spreading hate. I have not known you to be part of this club.

Im also a Christian and a Republican Conservative... Am i yet another extension of the extremism you dislike.. dont you think you need to re-edit your comments ?

There are plenty of left-wing bigots on Patricks, but who complains ?

381   Buster   2012 Mar 7, 12:30am  

JodyChunder says

Bigsby says

Think, don't feel. Feeling is destructive. If you're flying an airplane, feeling will get you and whoever is with you killed. Thinking and acting accordingly will probably save your life.

@Jody; So true. And those that cut off their feelings remain disconnected and miss out on the best things life has to offer.

ah, but science has proven that cognition is not separate from emtions; no decision can be arrived at without feelings. Feelings are important! AND I HAVE THEM!

382   tiny tina   2012 Mar 7, 12:56am  


Yes, pretty much everything in the middle of the country is reasonable even at the high end. It's the coasts that are bad deals for high-end buyers (compared to renting the same thing there).

Is that statement based on fact/data? As I said, I checked San Antonio, where there was little if any bubble, and a $1M home was definitely much cheaper to rent than to purchase based on craigslist and current list prices. Keep in mind that TX has very high property taxes, I think ~3%. I just checked Omaha, and based on craigslist, it looks like a $1M home rents somewhere between $3600-$4000. If you get a 30-yr fixed mortgage at 4.6% for $800k (assuming 20% down on $1M house), your P+I alone is $4100/mo. I don't know property taxes in NE. Unless property taxes are negative, you are paying more to own than to rent, and that doesn't include maintenance. That's 2 places that I would consider middle of the country, where higher end housing (comparable to Cupertino in terms of sales price) is not balanced as far as rents justifying purchasing.

383   rootvg   2012 Mar 7, 1:11am  

Buster says

I also just noted your comment policy: "Comment Policy: Insult Another User, Go To Jail" Please send rootvg to jail. Thanks.

So, how's it going?

384   Patrick   2012 Mar 7, 1:21am  

Buster says

I also just noted your comment policy: "Comment Policy: Insult Another User, Go To Jail" Please send rootvg to jail. Thanks.

Did he deliberately insult another user?

385   Bigsby   2012 Mar 7, 1:23am  


Buster says

I also just noted your comment policy: "Comment Policy: Insult Another User, Go To Jail" Please send rootvg to jail. Thanks.

Did he deliberately insult another user?

Well, calling anyone who's gay subhuman...

386   Patrick   2012 Mar 7, 1:35am  

Bigsby says

Well, calling anyone who's gay subhuman...

Ah, OK I found a quote of that comment. Looks like he deleted the original.

"Subhuman" is definitely not a polite way to express an opinion. It's a dilemma between allowing comments that are pointlessly rude and censoring someone's opinion.

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