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What Would You Do If Nothing Changed?


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2011 Nov 28, 10:49am   35,282 views  95 comments

by bmwman91   ➕follow (5)   💰tip   ignore  

Many participants in here, myself included, are in the "wait for the free market to return" camp. The government subsidies for housing via GSE loans, the MID, prop 13, RE agent-favoring MLS system, shadow inventory, squatters and low interest rates are all items on a (probably incomplete) list of things that us would-be buyers wish to see go away in hopes of lowering house prices. When/If some of these items go away, lots of of us probably figure that it would be OK to buy, and many of us post about how adamant we are about not buying into our current rigged-system.

OK. Obviously, we all have a pretty strong interest in buying houses, or else we wouldn't be spending time in here worrying about it. Buying a house is, for strong personal reasons, a really big aspiration for most people.

So, what if none of the things in the list above change in the next 10+ years? It isn't totally out of the realm of possibility. As far as I can tell, the groups that want to keep the game rigged like it is are also the groups that have the ability to change the rules of the game. The rest of us that are chasing some version of the American Dream can all pine away and wish for a fair, rational system, but we really do lack the means to get those with vested interests in rigging the game to un-rig it. Don't get me wrong, I have a really hard time seeing the system as it operates now lasting. Despite this, short- to mid-term economic behavior seems to be perfectly capable of doing totally irrational things. As far as I am concerned, 10 years is at the start of a "mid-term" time span when planning economic moves. Long-term, in my mind, is 30+ years, or about enough time for one generation to produce the next.

So, say that 10 years from now the game is still rigged and we all know it and hate it. How many of you would have saved & over-paid somewhere in that span? We are all waiting around for a train that we think is coming, but we aren't really sure of when. What if it doesn't come for a REALLY long time? For all of the frustration we seem to have, how many of us are really going to let it stop us? Will you eventually give-in?

Chances are that I would end up over-paying after a few more years of saving (and put down 30-50%). Despite the fact that I despise all of the crookedness in the system and live below my means, I want some personal space to run a workshop that I can walk to in 5 seconds, and to have a yard with big trees to do stupid stuff in with my climbing gear. God help me when I decide to have kids, but it would be nice to have a yard for them to run around in and provide me with manual labor when they are old enough (I knew how to use a jackhammer by the time I was 12, and spent a lot of weekends digging sprinkler line trenches and putting up drywall...it builds character, or something). The main reason I want to avoid overpaying, aside from the obvious short/mid-term issues, is the long term issue of being stuck with high property tax bills. My fiancee and I are fine with buying a $500k SFH, and in a couple more years we can put 40-50% down. We could put 25% down now, but we are, "waiting for that train." Anything over $500k is too much of a financial liability as far as we are concerned.

So, despite all of my idealism about not participating in a rigged system, I am pretty sure I'd cave in and participate at some point. I bet lots of us will. I am fairly certain that those that run this rigged system know this, and that gives them even more incentive to keep it rigged. "Look at these stupid peons...they piss & moan now, but give them a few years and they let us shoot a load in their face anyway!"

#housing

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71   thomas.wong1986   2011 Dec 1, 10:55am  

Like I said..."As if its going to change your pathic little neo-marxist views".

72   thomas.wong1986   2011 Dec 1, 11:07am  

ChrisSoCal says

Turn your question around, what happened that allowed such lousy underwriting? Answer: the repeal of Glass-Steagall. That allowed investment banks to get involved caused the creation of mortgage derivatives and the "off-loading" of risk. Suddenly, banks didn't give two hoots about your ability to repay and they flooded the market with money to create more loans, which they then packaged and resold. They needed an endless supply of new loans to fuel their ponzi-like compensation model that was dependent getting new debtor to take loans so banksters could "earn" commission.

If you want to talk about the Pozi "Commission" scheme you can certainly discuss that as it comes to real estate agents. Banks do no earn a commission. They generate a fee, not distributed to any one individual employee.

At what point exactly in you comments above, made the buyer think the homes like in Irvine were worth 2-3x more than a few years ago. Have you ever seen prices like in Irvine skyrocket that high in such a short period of time. Is that 200-300K home really worth 700-800K in less than 10 years ? What were these people thinking ...

73   bmwman91   2011 Dec 1, 1:43pm  

OK, guys. Let's not make this thread into a lame political dispute. I mean, it is sort of too late, but how about a separate thread in the politics section.

74   bmwman91   2011 Dec 1, 2:42pm  

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Tony Manero says

All other things being equal, or different, I'd still take a shit on a Realtor®'s face.

That was implied. Really, does anyone NOT know that step #1 of buying or selling a house requires a sufficiently sloppy dump to be unloaded on a realtor's face? Some prefer to be unconventional and give them a good old Cleveland Steamer instead. It is important to be inclusive of all preferences for buying & selling styles!

75   JodyChunder   2011 Dec 1, 3:04pm  

E-man says

What would I do if nothing change? I'd keep on buying & selling real estate. Keep on adding 2 rental properties to my portfolio per year for the next 10 years.

YES buy REAL ESTATE! EMAN has the bright lights on...buy houses. any where you can fine them cheap and and rent them out. some one needs the rental so you are not hogging up the homes $$$$$$ Awesome stuff EMAN you will be rich.

76   JodyChunder   2011 Dec 1, 3:10pm  

Cleveland! Had many good timesin Cleveland! Bought my first car there in fact 1956 Imperial hardtop wish i still had it.

77   bmwman91   2011 Dec 1, 3:12pm  

Yes, but did you ride a steamer? You seemed to enjoy yourself there, so I would assume so.

78   JodyChunder   2011 Dec 1, 3:15pm  

no sir. not sure on the steamers. is there Ohio river steamer?

79   bmwman91   2011 Dec 1, 3:20pm  

Nevermind. Perhaps I was confused. Next time you work with a realtor though, you should ask if they will let you ride the Cleveland Steamer with them.

80   JodyChunder   2011 Dec 1, 3:24pm  

ok I got it now bub goodle Cleveland steamer. desgustings .I

81   JodyChunder   2011 Dec 1, 3:27pm  

i meant GOOGLE

82   bmwman91   2011 Dec 1, 3:28pm  

OK good. I was starting to feel a little guilty & was going to have to explain it. Heck, you may have gotten unlucky (or lucky, who knows these days), and the realtor might be into that sort of stuff!

Anyway...things that don't have to do with that...

83   JodyChunder   2011 Dec 1, 4:42pm  

you have no idea what you have done. i can not eat my before bed snack now

84   MsAnnaNOLA   2011 Dec 3, 5:06pm  

Tue, 29 Nov 2011 at 5:16 am Quote Like Flag Take It Outside Permalink Share
ArtimusMaxtor says

Food does not grow in the United States for the most part it is barren land

Are you kidding me?????? Have you ever driven through the midwest?

We actually have a competitive advantage in food. It may not be free but we grow a lot of it. We also process and export quite a bit. It is actually the only area besides the military industrial complex where we actually export more than we import.

See here:

http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/FATUS/

85   FunTime   2011 Dec 8, 3:05am  

I'm not waiting, I'm watching. I'm completely convinced my lasting happiness has nothing to do with what I buy. In my pursuit of happiness, I won't buy anything impeding that pursuit.

86   FunTime   2011 Dec 8, 3:18am  

ArtimusMaxtor says

Barren land meaning you can't find any food just looking for it save a few berries.

You appear to have thought a lot about this idea, but have you considered reading some other sources? I note that you're providing no other sources for your ideas. I think there are aspects of your idea that have not come to your mind, which is how all ideas work. A single person does not usually cover all, or even most, of the relevant information connected with an idea.

Scientific American had an article in the last year showing that the equatorial rain belt is moving North. How does that change your idea?

87   FunTime   2011 Dec 8, 3:29am  

MoneySheep says

I just read an article about a house that was bought in 1901 for $1000 and this month it was sold for $900k. Wow, it seems alot of profit. But the article analyzed the costs of ownership, dealing with leaking plumbing, and eventually, it was just about even with inflation.

I want to start hearing people who buy houses say, "I bought the house for $X + i% interest, meaning I bought the house for X(1+i)^30." And I want them to know that total! And I want them to know the interest was stuck in the early payments so they couldn't escape the interest!

88   zzyzzx   2011 Dec 8, 3:51am  

bmwman91 says

You know, I would almost be OK with Las Vegas

Perhaps you would like Atlantic City better? It's got a beach and boardwalk and stuff.

89   zzyzzx   2011 Dec 8, 3:53am  

JodyChunder says

ok I got it now bub goodle Cleveland steamer. desgustings .I

I take it that you have never seen this movie

90   bmwman91   2011 Dec 8, 4:15am  

zzyzzx says

bmwman91 says

You know, I would almost be OK with Las Vegas

Perhaps you would like Atlantic City better? It's got a beach and boardwalk and stuff.

If the homeowner isn't insulted by your offer...you didn't bid low enough!!!

Wherever I go must have ample rock climbing within 30 minutes. New Jersey isn't too high on that list. Surfing access is a plus, but it's gotta have ROCK! By this criteria, I probably sound like I am doomed to live along coastal CA (and I may well be).

91   zzyzzx   2011 Dec 8, 7:34am  

JodyChunder says

ok I got it now bub goodle Cleveland steamer. desgustings .I

I take it that you have never seen this movie

92   bob2356   2011 Dec 8, 8:42am  

bmwman91 says

zzyzzx says

bmwman91 says

You know, I would almost be OK with Las Vegas

Perhaps you would like Atlantic City better? It's got a beach and boardwalk and stuff.

If the homeowner isn't insulted by your offer...you didn't bid low enough!!!

Wherever I go must have ample rock climbing within 30 minutes. New Jersey isn't too high on that list. Surfing access is a plus, but it's gotta have ROCK! By this criteria, I probably sound like I am doomed to live along coastal CA (and I may well be).

Oregon has something called the Cascades with lots of rock climbing. It's 90 minutes to surfing from Portland. Real men surf Oregon, puts hair on your chest.

93   cksv   2011 Dec 8, 10:09am  

Scary times.

94   Iron Ranger   2011 Dec 8, 9:33pm  

We need another Reagan.

95   thomas.wong1986   2011 Dec 9, 6:19am  

bob2356 says

Real men surf Oregon, puts hair on your chest.

Not to mention inland, they do river surfing.

http://www.youtube.com/embed/P9TAs2sb71A

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