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Welcome To The Bottom: Housing Begins Slow Rebound (AP)


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2009 Aug 1, 1:42am   57,583 views  286 comments

by WillyWanker   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

"It was — note the past tense — the worst housing recession anyone but survivors of the Great Depression can remember.

From the frenzied peak of the real estate boom in 2005-2006 to the recession's trough earlier this year, home resales fell 38 percent and sales of new homes tumbled 76 percent. Construction of homes and apartments skidded 79 percent. And for the first time in more than four decades of record keeping, home prices posted consecutive annual declines.

A staggering $4 trillion in home equity was wiped out, and millions of Americans lost their homes through foreclosure.

Now take a deep breath and exhale. The worst is over."

Read the rest here:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090801/ap_on_bi_ge/us_housing_mid_year_outlook

This was on Yahoo! News.  You know people are reading it and gobbling it up.  I know the market will remain flat and on the bottom for some time to come, at least here in Southern California.  But, I bet some fence sitters are going to start jumping into the housing market sometime soon.

This does not bode well for those who are calling a return to 80's prices in the Westside of Los Angeles, you know the one's who say that $400 will get you a 3000 square foot house on a 15000 square foot lot in Santa Monica, north of Montana.  :P


#housing

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213   P2D2   2009 Aug 25, 10:20am  

WillyWanker says

So no one wrote about a 3500 square foot ‘mansion’. Only to a piece of trash, such as yourself, would a 3500 square foot house qualify as a ‘mansion’. And to anyone with an IQ over 60, who’s mother is not also their sister, it should have been clear what my intention was.

Keep twisting, Wanker. 3500 sqft means 3500 sqft. I call it "mansion"? You call what? Dollhouse? Fine. Your intention was very obvious. You tried to tell that one can get 3500 sqft in Palisades - of course without "ocean view".

214   P2D2   2009 Aug 25, 10:22am  

WillyWanker says

So, next time, learn to read and pay attention and try to see what is meant and implied.

LOL! I have no intention to read your tiny microscopic brain and figure out what you implied. I read what you wrote. If you were not clear enough, that's not my problem.

215   P2D2   2009 Aug 25, 10:41am  

WillyWanker says

I won’t argue with you anymore, as arguing with a retard is a losing proposition. Get well soon.

Wow! Non-sense posts like this one must be coming from a non-retarded person. Let's read it what it said:

These stories will continue to make headlines as buyers snatch up houses they view as bargains. The bottom of market may not be everywhere, but it would appear that some buyers are sensing that the time is right for them to buy into the market.

As others already pointed out, what does that mean "everywhere"? 90% of market? 20% of market? That's very vague statement - does not mean anything.
Next part - "some buyers are sensing that the time is right for them to buy into the market". Well, there will be ALWAYS some buyers who would think that it is right to buy......for them - even in flood, earthquake, war. So, unless total number of sale become ZERO, Wanker's statement is always right. That makes his/her comments vacuous and nonsensical. It's like saying "people are breathing" or "tree grows".
Needless to say that one who does not understand the difference between seasonal change and market recovery, it would be pointless to debate with him/her.

For others, this article describes what Wanker is claiming market recovering is nothing but seasonal change. Especially this neat graph.

216   P2D2   2009 Aug 25, 10:53am  

WillyWanker says

If you can’t tell that I am being facetious you must be as dense as a brick.

We all know you were always "facetious" - even when you start this very thread with title "Welcome To The Bottom: Housing Begins Slow Rebound (AP)". And posts like this and this and this. There is nothing serious about those posts. All facetious.

So, if someday you want to post some serious stuff, please mark it as "SERIOUS". :)

217   WillyWanker   2009 Aug 25, 12:51pm  

P2D2 says

WillyWanker says

If you can’t tell that I am being facetious you must be as dense as a brick.

We all know you were always “facetious” - even when you start this very thread with title “Welcome To The Bottom: Housing Begins Slow Rebound (AP)“. And posts like this and this and this. There is nothing serious about those posts. All facetious.
So, if someday you want to post some serious stuff, please mark it as “SERIOUS”.

At the risk of repeating myself, it was your patent stupidity that assumed I was writing about a 3500 square foot 'mansion'. What a fool and an oaf you are. Care to explain which one of your orifices you pulled that out of? Obviously it comes from somewhere around your nether region, as it has the stink of your trash all over it.

Furthermore, if you don't think I am 'SERIOUS' why are you bothering posting on this thread? Why bother participating in a thread I originated if you don't find it 'SERIOUS'? Doesn't say that much about you, your intelligence, and the amount of time you have on your hands, now does it?

But thanks for playing. *waves goodnight*

218   Patrick   2009 Aug 25, 2:26pm  

That describes me pretty well too, except I didn't grow up in a trailer, and have 2 kids. And my old beat-up car is Japanese, so it does function most of the time. And I'm white. Does that make me white trash?

219   P2D2   2009 Aug 25, 2:56pm  

WillyWanker says

At the risk of repeating myself, it was your patent stupidity that assumed I was writing about a 3500 square foot ‘mansion’. What a fool and an oaf you are. Care to explain which one of your orifices you pulled that out of? Obviously it comes from somewhere around your nether region, as it has the stink of your trash all over it.

Typical Wanker. You are trying to avoid addressing your original claim where you said 3500 sqft Palisades home is available for $450K. The issue is not whether someone calls 3500 sqft "mansion" or "dollhouse" or "doghouse". The issue is that you said 3500 sqft home (without "ocean view") available in Palisades for $450K. In reality for $450K you won't get a mobile home in Palisades.
So let me ask you very same question: which one your orifices excreted the statement "you can buy a 3500 square foot for $450K right now in the Palisades, you just don’t get the ocean view"?

220   P2D2   2009 Aug 25, 3:04pm  

WillyWanker says

Furthermore, if you don’t think I am ‘SERIOUS’ why are you bothering posting on this thread? Why bother participating in a thread I originated if you don’t find it ‘SERIOUS’? Doesn’t say that much about you, your intelligence, and the amount of time you have on your hands, now does it?

LOL! Now I get it. You are spewing "serious" bullshit. Then if someone here proves your statements/claims factually incorrect, then you start complaining like a drama-queen: "I was just being sarcastic. Why don't you understand what I IMPLIED?"

You are full of bullshit, Wanker.
The cherry-picked statements/lines/paragraphs you quote from news those articles are full of bullshit.
The absurd conclusions you draw from those articles and the absurd opinions you make are full of bullshit.

221   P2D2   2009 Aug 25, 3:10pm  

WillyWanker says

But thanks for playing. *waves goodnight*

You too, Wanker. Don't forget to post another news article about your "bottom" tomorrow - with title "Welcome To TheMY Bottom: Housing Begins Slow Rebound (AP)".

222   WillyWanker   2009 Aug 25, 3:51pm  

P2D2 says

WillyWanker says

But thanks for playing. *waves goodnight*

You too, Wanker. Don’t forget to post another news article about your “bottom” tomorrow - with title “Welcome To TheMY Bottom: Housing Begins Slow Rebound (AP)“.

Would you like to munch my 'bottom'? Why else would you be referencing it? Thanks, but no thanks, girlfriend. I don't want your lips on my 'bottom'.

223   P2D2   2009 Aug 25, 3:58pm  

WillyWanker says

Would you like to munch my ‘bottom’? Why else would you be referencing it? Thanks, but no thanks, girlfriend. I don’t want your lips on my ‘bottom’.

Damn, your "bottom"-full bullshit everywhere. Just look at the title of this very thread.

I don't see your brain here. Just your bullshit and bottom.

224   WillyWanker   2009 Aug 25, 3:58pm  

P2D2 says

WillyWanker says

Furthermore, if you don’t think I am ‘SERIOUS’ why are you bothering posting on this thread? Why bother participating in a thread I originated if you don’t find it ‘SERIOUS’? Doesn’t say that much about you, your intelligence, and the amount of time you have on your hands, now does it?

LOL! Now I get it. You are spewing “serious” bullshit. Then if someone here proves your statements/claims factually incorrect, then you start complaining like a drama-queen: “I was just being sarcastic. Why don’t you understand what I IMPLIED?”
You are full of bullshit, Wanker.

The cherry-picked statements/lines/paragraphs you quote from news those articles are full of bullshit.

The absurd conclusions you draw from those articles and the absurd opinions you make are full of bullshit.

You have proved nothing but your own stupidity. You write that I'm not 'serious' but YOU come on this thread to squawk like a bitch and think I'm not going to call 'bullshit'? Well, you are wrong, Mary, and I would reference your own posts for displays of pure crap~ola. Obviously you are captivated by this thread, or you wouldn't be spending your time here.

225   WillyWanker   2009 Aug 25, 4:00pm  

P2D2 says

WillyWanker says

Would you like to munch my ‘bottom’? Why else would you be referencing it? Thanks, but no thanks, girlfriend. I don’t want your lips on my ‘bottom’.

Damn, your “bottom”-full bullshit everywhere. Just look at the title of this very thread.
I don’t see brain here. Just your bottom.

Obviously, my 'bottom' has become an 'idee fixe' with you. Quit fixating on my 'bottom' and go on with your life.

226   WillyWanker   2009 Aug 25, 4:03pm  

P2D2 says

WillyWanker says

Would you like to munch my ‘bottom’? Why else would you be referencing it? Thanks, but no thanks, girlfriend. I don’t want your lips on my ‘bottom’.

Damn, your “bottom”-full bullshit everywhere. Just look at the title of this very thread.
I don’t see your brain here. Just your bullshit and bottom.

LOL. I love how you went back to your post to edit out your fixation on my 'bottom'. Get a grip.

227   P2D2   2009 Aug 25, 4:05pm  

WillyWanker says

You have proved nothing but your own stupidity. You write that I’m not ’serious’ but YOU come on this thread to squawk like a bitch and think I’m not going to call ‘bullshit’? Well, you are wrong, Mary, and I would reference your own posts for displays of pure crap~ola. Obviously you are captivated by this thread, or you wouldn’t be spending your time here.

Well, you did not know I am captivated by this forum, including this thread?
And of course I am spending lot of time here - just to expose all your bullshit opinions based on those news articles. Too disappointed?

228   P2D2   2009 Aug 25, 4:09pm  

WillyWanker says

LOL. I love how you went back to your post to edit out your fixation on my ‘bottom’. Get a grip.

Don't worry. I just added "bullshit" in front of "bottom". That's a very important characteristics. How could I miss it! My bad. So I edited to add it.

229   P2D2   2009 Aug 25, 4:11pm  

WillyWanker says

Obviously, my ‘bottom’ has become an ‘idee fixe’ with you. Quit fixating on my ‘bottom’ and go on with your life.

Not sure if I have 'idee fixe' but can avoid it - especially when someone creates thread to demonstrate it.

230   P2D2   2009 Aug 25, 4:19pm  

WillyWanker says

I would reference your own posts for displays of pure crap~ola.

Go ahead, Wanker. I bet it would be hell of an achievement from your side, considering the fact that all you have done so far here is having bullshit opinions and conclusions based on cherry-picked statements from news articles.

231   homeowner_for ever_san jose   2009 Aug 25, 4:47pm  

people predicting the home market and betting thier money on it ( they do more research than us because money is at stake)
http://www.recharts.com/cme.html

232   P2D2   2009 Aug 25, 5:19pm  

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

people predicting the home market and betting thier money on it ( they do more research than us because money is at stake)

I bet there were plenty of people who had their money in stake for tulip mania. There is no doubt about it. Just because their money is in stake that does not mean they are making wise decisions.

Every research does not translate to correct conclusion (and sound investment decision). In the end they are betting their money. They will either lose or win.

233   Austinhousingbubble   2009 Aug 25, 10:26pm  

"It will come back" when referring to the housing bubble is a bit of a misnomer; it never went away, thanks to Uncle Sam's size thirteen boot stuck in the door of free market forces.

234   WillyWanker   2009 Aug 26, 12:40am  

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/July-new-US-home-sales-up-96-apf-2930955123.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

"July new US home sales up 9.6 percent
New US home sales in July surge 9.6 pct, beating expectations in 4th straight monthly increase

* By Alan Zibel, AP Real Estate Writer
* On Wednesday August 26, 2009, 10:27 am EDT

WASHINGTON (AP) -- New U.S. home sales surged 9.6 percent in July, rising for the fourth straight month and beating expectations as the housing market marches steadily back from its historic downturn.

The Commerce Department said Wednesday that sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 433,000 from an upwardly revised June rate of 395,000. Sales are now up 32 percent from the bottom in January, but off 69 percent from the frenzied peak four years ago.

Last month's sales pace was the strongest since September and exceeded the forecasts of economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters, who expected a pace of 390,000 units. The last time sales rose so dramatically was in February 2005."

Another story about the real~estate market picking up. Let's see if the positive news take root and the market begins a steady, albeit slow, climb. Time will tell.

235   mark546443   2009 Aug 26, 2:49am  

Houses are selling in 2 weeks or less in my neighborhood. I bought exactly one year ago for $620,000. The house two doors down, same model sold for 975,000. It's a great time to buy if you buy in the right area for the right price.

236   homeowner_for ever_san jose   2009 Aug 26, 2:52am  

Yea! im sure plenty still recall how many were saying.. “It will come back” as the tech stock of late 90s fell from 300/share by 90%. Just like Yahoo stock… $350 dow under $40K

I also recall when many people were saying in 2003 that tech is dead and that nasdaq will go to 600 !
for every idiot who said that sky is the limit for the boom , i can show you another idiot who said there is no end to the bottom during bust.

237   justme   2009 Aug 26, 3:43am  

Patrick,

>>Does that make me white trash

Maybe we can all apply for an honorary memberships? Being a renter and all is a fairly strong qualification in some people's opinion :-) :-).

238   P2D2   2009 Aug 26, 4:04am  

This whole housing recovery theory is described in this chart.

The article: Existing Home Sales Far Worse Than Advertised

239   P2D2   2009 Aug 26, 4:13am  

mark546443 says

Houses are selling in 2 weeks or less in my neighborhood. I bought exactly one year ago for $620,000. The house two doors down, same model sold for 975,000. It’s a great time to buy if you buy in the right area for the right price.

Wow! That's almost 50% jump. Even 2004-2005 did not do that much. Which neighborhood is that?

You said great time to buy NOW but your own neighborhood example shows that it was great time to buy in 2008. Did you actually mean that it is ALWAYS great time to buy? What do you think about the the property that was purchased for $975K this year? Is it going to be $1.5M next year, following the current rate of appreciation?

240   WillyWanker   2009 Sep 1, 12:18am  

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/July-pending-home-sales-rise-apf-2023646788.html?x=0&.v=12

ap
"July pending home sales rise to 2-year high
Pending US home sales rise for sixth straight month in July to highest level since June 2007

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Pending U.S. home sales rose more than expected in July to the highest level in more than two years as first-time buyers rushed to take advantage of a tax credit that expires this fall.

The National Association of Realtors says its seasonally adjusted index of sales contracts signed in July for previously occupied homes rose 3.2 percent to 97.6. It was the sixth straight increase and 12 percent above the same month last year."

Wonder if congress will begin to dole out $15K for ANYONE willing to buy real estate after the $8K is history? Seems as if there are rumblings to that effect. Will $15K entice enough people to go out and buy?

241   pinnacle   2009 Sep 1, 2:08am  

I still keep getting updates of houses being put back on the market that were counted as "pending sales"
last month. I also get updates showing price reductions not increases.
Recently I see signs popping up that say "bank repo open house" on houses that are not listed as even being for sale. These signs appear on the weekend and disappear during the week.
They appear to be unofficial attempts at foreclosure sales.
None of this sounds like an improving market for homes.

242   ch_tah2   2009 Sep 2, 1:35am  

nowhere but up from here says

The last two homes in our rental property “area” sold and both have been moved into. Now there are zero homes on the market and I’m getting as much for rent as I did during the “boom” years in ALL my rentals…..yeah, it may suck in your world but mine is moving right along…..America…still the land of opportunity if you have the BALLS to make it work……

If what you say is true about "ALL" your rentals, good for you.

I'm curious...if you are doing so well, why do you come on a board like this to gloat? Don't you have anything better to do with all of your money? Seems kind of pathetic.

243   P2D2   2009 Sep 2, 3:54am  

nowhere but up from here says

Could it be anymore pathetic than the rhetoric spewed all over the wall here…..talk about imbalance…

Rhetoric or not, but those two questions were legitimate questions. If you want to mention about your bank account then certainly someone else can question why you want to mention it here.

244   P2D2   2009 Sep 2, 7:48am  

nowhere but up from here says

greed, I should be flogged. Any person using a “term of expression” is in flagrant violation of Patrick.net doom and gloom genre and should be purged from the site. Any further reference to personal sucess will not be tolerated.

As none of the those actions was taken (purging or not tolerating), that makes it a straw man argument. Questioning something does not equate to intolerance.

245   ch_tah2   2009 Sep 2, 8:13am  

nowhere but up from here says

P2D2 says


nowhere but up from here says

Could it be anymore pathetic than the rhetoric spewed all over the wall here…..talk about imbalance…


Rhetoric or not, but those two questions were legitimate questions. If you want to mentioned about your bank account then certainly someone else can question why you want to mention it here.

Agreed, I should be flogged. Any person using a “term of expression” is in flagrant violation of Patrick.net doom and gloom genre and should be purged from the site. Any further reference to personal sucess will not be tolerated. Obviously I have no sensitivity to the sufferings of the individuals on this site and only promote my own self interests. Unfortuately, I have no statistical data to confirm or deny this statement…..hahahahahahahah….you guys are priceless

I'd still just like an answer. If you are doing so well, why do you waste your time bragging to a bunch of loser renters? Are you gonna go to the playground next and beat a bunch of 5 yr olds in basketball?

246   WillyWanker   2009 Sep 4, 10:20am  

zetabeos1 says

“I’m curious…if you are doing so well, why do you come on a board like this to gloat? Don’t you have anything better to do with all of your money? Seems kind of pathetic.”
I would guess, this person is a realtor.

Wow! Accusing anyone who is not a crepe hanger of being a 'realtor'. Who'd of 'thunk' it? On patrick.net, even.

247   WillyWanker   2009 Oct 27, 3:17am  

"Home Prices RISE"

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091027/ap_on_bi_ge/us_home_prices

Third month we are seeing prices rise in the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index of 20 major cities. We will continue to view this data and see how it develops.

248   Bap33   2009 Oct 28, 2:28am  

I see it thusly:
If the leftists are still pleading for that $8K, or $?K, "buyers incentive", then the bottom aint in.
If the news papers put "housing heats up" on the front page, the bottom aint in.
If the unemplyment in a particular locale is still over 10%, the bottom aint in (there).
If the illegal population is not compelled to go home, the bottom aint in.
If welfare Section 8 rentals are not cut, the bottom aint in.

When the incentives are removed (including city and state level incentives), and when the print media is no longer on the REwhore bank-roll, and when more people that want work are working, and when the illegals and their spawn go home, and when welfare Section 8 is cut ... then the market for buying a home in California may very truely be on the level ... dead level ... and just as Doc Nomo says it will be pancake flat for a long, long, looooong time.

249   Vicente   2009 Oct 28, 2:38am  

On rare occasions, I *do* agree with Bap33.

"I was so ugly as a baby, that my parents had to tie a pork chop around my neck to get the dog to play with me." - Rodney Dangerfield

Yeah pull out all the subsidies & tax credits and let's find out if this is the bottom or not.

251   youngniceeyes   2009 Oct 28, 3:08am  

I’m all for good news, but if a statistically meaningless one month bump in 5 years of data is best result we get from all trillions of BORROWED dollars being dumped into the system, not to mention massive political manipulation of the system, then I’m not that impressed. Somewhere the stimulation has to end because we can’t continue to borrow unprecedented amounts of money forever. What we have done is shift massive unsustainable borrowing from individuals to the government. No country in history has borrowed it’s way to prosperity unless the money was used as an investment in infrastructure, like the US did in the late 1800’s.

I agree with Claire, all the garbage has to shake out first. There will be a bottom, there is always a bottom. Some places may even be there now. But a lot of places aren’t.
--I agree with Bob completely. This is what I've been saying all along. Now one other question, is wanker (I don't capitalize people's names who don't deserve respect) one of those arrogant home owners?

I agree with bob completely. This kind of thing is what I've been saying all along.

252   michaelsch   2009 Oct 28, 3:25am  

Vicente says

On rare occasions, I *do* agree with Bap33.

I second this with some cosmetic corrections:
If the fascists are pushing for that $15K, “ALL buyers" drug shot, then the bottom aint in.
If the news papers put “housing heats up” on the front page, the bottom aint in.
If the REAL unemplyment in California is 20%, the bottom aint in (there).
If the white junk still "owns" exurbs homes rather than going to populate the slams of Detroit, Kansas city etc., the bottom aint in.
If anyone still dares to call the bottom, the bottom aint in.
Finally, if an average American still spends more than 30% of income on housing, the bottom aint in. BTW, these expenditures include all taxes we pay to support housing deductions, credits, housing related bail-outs, government backing of housing lenders and such. Much of these are covered with the "inflation tax".
I think we'll hit the real bottom when our housing expenses will go below 15%. Simply because in healthy economy they need to be lower than expenses for each of the following:

Food
Energy
Education
Health care

But at that level nobody will care about the bottom of housing market, since housing won't be investment, speculation item, hedge against inflation, American dream, etc. It will be just a place we may use for all kind of activities.
Till then all bottom is just a false bottom with all the implications.

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