patrick.net

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

BTW, the real good discussion about the bubble happened during 2004/2005/2006 years.there were some real good people you could talk to ( HARM, OOO …etc) but looks like all have left and newbie’s like you come and start a conversation like “there is a housing bubble because …..” in year 2009.

LOL! Yes, I was there. Till late 2007 (or even early 2008) some people debated why bay area housing market won't crash. And they had whole range of ever-shifting metric to gauge market. The last thing I remember price-per-sqft (after median is gone, low-inventory is gone, low-foreclosure is gone, "it's special here" is gone).
And there is a reason why some people disappeared. After lots of denial, they didn't have simply any argument anymore. Housing market crash was obvious, even in better neighborhoods, and it was at their own doorsteps.

FYI,
the people who are gone are not the ones who denied housing bubble but are the ones who were insisting the housing bubble will continue till 2012.

BTW, did you find out why historically some areas always had mortgage > rent ?
when i say historically i am not talking 10 years ...i am talking 50+ years.

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

One last assignment for you :
rent versus buy never made sense in some areas ( even 30 or 50 years back) and never will in future..now try to figure it out why and let us know.

Unfortunately that's not a valid assignment.

There are indeed some areas where rent vs buy could be skewed in one way or another (note that skewed is not same as "never made sense"). Traditional Silicon Valley middle class neighborhoods where people make their living from salaries (plus may be a few stock options) not one of them.

Traditional Silicon Valley middle class neighborhoods

Can you define silicon valley middle class ? whats the median income ?

There are indeed some areas where rent vs buy could be skewed in one way or another

Why are they skewed ? any reason ? did you ever do a rent versus buy for a 5000 sqft villa ?

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

been visiting this site for past five years. your arguments are so yesterday. we use to talk about those when we were kids, now we have grown up and talk about bigger things here are patrick.net

Yes, I can see the signs of maturity in your argument when you make statements like "maintanence cost = premium of owning a home" or "don’t look at good school districts and do rent versus buy" or even better "the market does not lower the price just because you can’t afford it". :)

you won't see the maturity because you are at chapter 1 and i am explaining the conclusion.

There are indeed some areas where rent vs buy could be skewed in one way or another

Why are they skewed ? any reason ? did you ever do a rent versus buy for a 5000 sqft villa ?

i am trying to help you with some analysis.

OK...i know you won't get it so i'll end with this :

When rent versus buy makes sense for a home , its a no brainer ( if you staying for a long time and if price in line with shiller index)

for some areas :
if rent versus buy is in line with "long term rent/buy trend ", you can buy if you really want it and there is no bubble (long term is 30+ years)

There is a reason why some areas/homes have LONG TERM price versus rent ratio > 1 ...its called home ownership premium for that area.
when price versus rent > "long term trend" there is a bubble.
just because price versus rent > 1 does not mean there is a bubble.
BTW, this stuff is not something you'll find in some economic's book or a stupid economics newspaper column...you have to grasp these concepts yourself. enough said for now, i'll stop here ...i am in no mood to explain chapter2 now.

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

Can you define silicon valley middle class ? whats the median income ?

Come on! You got to be kidding! Afterall you are larking here for five years. Go to redfin or trulia or city-data and figure out median income.

Why are they skewed ? any reason ?

It could be skewed for very supply-and-demand.

did you ever do a rent versus buy for a 5000 sqft villa ?

Aha, now you decided to act lke a troll. Now I have to calculate for 500 sqft, 560 sqft, 570 sqft,..................1000 sqft........5000 sqft?

No, your question does not make sense. If you really interested to make sense, just lay out your argument - based on the very narrow and restricted subset of homes you put - 5000 sqft villa and their rent vs buy trend for last 50 years.

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

you won’t see the maturity because you are at chapter 1 and i am explaining the conclusion.

Please lay out your conclusion......with proper example. For 50 years. Pleasssssssssssse.

Don't tell me like this:
premium of owning a 5000 sqft villa = mortgage + maintenance + tax + lost opportunity cost + insurance + other costs.

Therefore, rent vs buy does not make sense.

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

OK…i know you won’t get it so i’ll end with this :

When rent versus buy makes sense for a home , its a no brainer ( if you staying for a long time and if price in line with shiller index)

for some areas :
if rent versus buy is in line with “long term rent/buy trend “, you can buy if you really want it and there is no bubble (long term is 30+ years)

There is a reason why some areas/homes have LONG TERM price versus rent ratio > 1 …its called home ownership premium for that area.
when price versus rent > “long term trend” there is a bubble.
just because price versus rent > 1 does not mean there is a bubble.

Ok, let me end from my side - you are making a straw man argument. Let me rewind back the discussion to show how absurd your above argument is. Here you are trying to say why it is good idea to buy home (because rent vs buy perfectly in line). Basically you are cherry-picking certain neighborhood (East San Jose) and trying to apply it everywhere. This whole rent vs buy argument is fetched by you to tell how it is great time buy NOW.

And now you are saying that certain areas have "premium", therefore people should calculate rent vs buy. So tell us, what was the "premium" of Cupertino 10 years back? Or even better parts of San Jose?

Now you are saying that certain areas have “premimum”. So tell us, what was the “premium” of Cupertino 10 years back?

do a rent versus buy 10 years back and lets see if it makes sense....or better do 20 years back ..LOL

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

do a rent versus buy 10 years back and lets see if it makes sense….or better do 20 years back ..LOL

Still waiting for your 50 years worth of buy vs rent calculation for 5000 sqft villa.

As I said before, you made the argument for "premium". You got to be able to demonstrate that certain neighborhoods always had "premium", right? For 50 years?

i'll go to sleep now..i'll check back a week later.
I hope by then you would learn on doing your own research.

To recap , your assignment is to find out why there are long term trends of price versus rent > 1 for certain areas.

now go to sleep and take some rest ! good night .

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

To recap , your assignment is to find out why there are long term trends of price versus rent > 1 for certain areas.

Oh, I already said that your assignment is invalid. What is the point of keep repeating? Comprehension problem?

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

.i’ll check back a week later.

After one week, instead of saying "I have been doing my math and doing research for past FIVE years", please try to demonstrate that you actually did. One who can do math and research does not need to blow his/her own trumpet. His/her skill and knowledge should be evident.

If interest rates go through the roof, it won't drive down the cost of housing like many think. If its more expensive to own, its even MORE expensive to rent. California with their Prop 9 is La La Land.

I don't think its a great time to buy, but taxes aren't going down, and if home ownership is more expensive (interest rates) then renting will go up too. The only thing holding down the price of rents out there in Cali is that little thing called tax subversion.

A good reason to buy is to lock in a majority of a payment. With 20% unemployment, then yes, rents will stagnate. But if housing is expensing renting is expensive. What kind of a person rents with a negative cash flow? Yeah I didn't think so.

knewbetter,

>>The only thing holding down the price of rents out there in Cali is that little thing called tax subversion.

Can you please clarify what you mean by that?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Index-shows-home-prices-apf-1645217199.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=

ap

"Index shows home prices increase from 1Q to 2Q
S&P index shows home prices rose 3 percent in 2nd qtr, the first quarterly gain since 2006

* By J.W. Elphinstone, AP Real Estate Writer
* On Tuesday August 25, 2009, 9:24 am EDT

NEW YORK (AP) -- Home prices posted their first quarterly increase in three years, signaling the housing market has turned a corner."

These stories will continue to make headlines as buyers snatch up houses they view as bargains. The bottom of market may not be everywhere, but it would appear that some buyers are sensing that the time is right for them to buy into the market.

Besides, Ben Bernanke has been awarded a second term by Obama. The Federal Reserve Chairman must have impressed Brack Obama with his skills to be given another chance at his job. Those of you who voted for Obama must be very pleased with yourselves. Now let's watch if congress approves a $15000 tax credit to ALL home buyers, not just first time buyers, and see what it does to the market.

I know some of you are gnashing your teeth and wringing your hands in despair, but NO, Obama and congress apparently don't care about renters and those of us who are fiscal conservatives and who don't take out loans we can't afford to pay back. Congress and the president are going to forge ahead and reward homeowners who took out risky loans.

Stay tuned.

WillyWanker says

These stories will continue to make headlines as buyers snatch up houses they view as bargains. The bottom of market may not be everywhere, but it would appear that some buyers are sensing that the time is right for them to buy into the market.

Time for Wanker to buy “60′ mobile home” in Palisades. Run Wanker, run and grab it.

The Wanker is pumping the market yet again. Will he ever stop? Will he ever truthfully answer the question as to whether he has a financial interest derived from real-estate transactions?

Calculated Risk has the following take on the story:

Imagine a headline in June 1991 (if Case-Shiller was around):
"House Prices increase at 11.6% annualized rate in June!"
The horrible price declines were over ... right? Nope. Real house prices declined for almost another 5 years. Just something to remember.

For the rest from CR, check out

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/08/misc-possible-1991-house-price-headline.html

P2D2 says

WillyWanker says

These stories will continue to make headlines as buyers snatch up houses they view as bargains. The bottom of market may not be everywhere, but it would appear that some buyers are sensing that the time is right for them to buy into the market.

Time for Wanker to buy “60′ mobile home” in Palisades. Run Wanker, run and grab it.

Unlike you, I have never lived in a trailer nor a mobile home. I am not dirty peasant trash, I leave that job to you.

justme says

The Wanker is pumping the market yet again. Will he ever stop? Will he ever truthfully answer the question as to whether he has a financial interest derived from real-estate transactions?
Calculated Risk has the following take on the story:
Imagine a headline in June 1991 (if Case-Shiller was around):

“House Prices increase at 11.6% annualized rate in June!”

The horrible price declines were over … right? Nope. Real house prices declined for almost another 5 years. Just something to remember.
For the rest from CR, check out
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/08/misc-possible-1991-house-price-headline.html

justmoi, I had no idea I had so much influence. I'm the sole reason that the market is being pumped? Well, thank~you for that.

As I have written before I have no dog in this race. Just because YOU can't afford to purchase any real estate should not be reason enough to live your life in bitterness. Keep on hoping and dreaming and perhaps, if you save your pennies you too might become a home~owner.

WillyWanker says

Unlike you, I have never lived in a trailer nor a mobile home. I am not dirty peasant trash, I leave that job to you.

But according to you, that mobile home is a "3500 square foot" mansion. Then why not buying it?

What mobile home are you referring to? The one you and your mama sat around in waiting for your government cheese? Are you on crack or just an idiot?

Please advise.

WillyWanker says

What mobile home are you referring to? The one you and your mama sat around in waiting for your government cheese? Are you on crack or just an idiot?

Please advise.

Comprehension problem or ignorant? Click on the link given to "according to you" in earlier post. That takes to your OWN post where you claimed that you get 3500 sqft home in Palisades for $450K. Right? Well, in Palisades you get mobile home for $495K - the mobile home mentioned here (land rent not included). That's your 3500 sqft mansion in Palisades.

What an absolute moron you are, dipshit. If you can't tell that I am being facetious you must be as dense as a brick.

Why not quote me word for word? FYI, what I wrote is this:

"No, actually you can buy a 3500 square foot for $450K right now in the Palisades, you just don’t get the ocean view. You would need to spend another $50K if you want that."

So no one wrote about a 3500 square foot 'mansion'. Only to a piece of trash, such as yourself, would a 3500 square foot house qualify as a 'mansion'. And to anyone with an IQ over 60, who's mother is not also their sister, it should have been clear what my intention was. Of course you would have to have some talent at reading and comprehension to be able to analyze the intention.

In an earlier post I wrote:

"I know, I know~~~~I want to be able to buy a house in The Palisades for $400K, too. But we aren’t there yet. Perhaps if we wait a year or two, prices in The Palisades, Brentwood and Bel Air will drop low enough where a box~boy at Home Depot will be able to buy his dream home. (tongue planted firmly in cheek)"

'(tongue planted firmly in cheek)' means I am being sarcastic. SARCASM, look it up you might learn something.

So, next time, learn to read and pay attention and try to see what is meant and implied. I know it's asking a lot of you with your meager and puny little brain, but it will become useful to you as you begin to deal with those outside your controlled environment.

I won't argue with you anymore, as arguing with a retard is a losing proposition. Get well soon.

WillyWanker says

So no one wrote about a 3500 square foot ‘mansion’. Only to a piece of trash, such as yourself, would a 3500 square foot house qualify as a ‘mansion’. And to anyone with an IQ over 60, who’s mother is not also their sister, it should have been clear what my intention was.

Keep twisting, Wanker. 3500 sqft means 3500 sqft. I call it "mansion"? You call what? Dollhouse? Fine. Your intention was very obvious. You tried to tell that one can get 3500 sqft in Palisades - of course without "ocean view".

WillyWanker says

So, next time, learn to read and pay attention and try to see what is meant and implied.

LOL! I have no intention to read your tiny microscopic brain and figure out what you implied. I read what you wrote. If you were not clear enough, that's not my problem.

WillyWanker says

I won’t argue with you anymore, as arguing with a retard is a losing proposition. Get well soon.

Wow! Non-sense posts like this one must be coming from a non-retarded person. Let's read it what it said:

These stories will continue to make headlines as buyers snatch up houses they view as bargains. The bottom of market may not be everywhere, but it would appear that some buyers are sensing that the time is right for them to buy into the market.

As others already pointed out, what does that mean "everywhere"? 90% of market? 20% of market? That's very vague statement - does not mean anything.
Next part - "some buyers are sensing that the time is right for them to buy into the market". Well, there will be ALWAYS some buyers who would think that it is right to buy......for them - even in flood, earthquake, war. So, unless total number of sale become ZERO, Wanker's statement is always right. That makes his/her comments vacuous and nonsensical. It's like saying "people are breathing" or "tree grows".
Needless to say that one who does not understand the difference between seasonal change and market recovery, it would be pointless to debate with him/her.

For others, this article describes what Wanker is claiming market recovering is nothing but seasonal change. Especially this neat graph.

WillyWanker says

If you can’t tell that I am being facetious you must be as dense as a brick.

We all know you were always "facetious" - even when you start this very thread with title "Welcome To The Bottom: Housing Begins Slow Rebound (AP)". And posts like this and this and this. There is nothing serious about those posts. All facetious.

So, if someday you want to post some serious stuff, please mark it as "SERIOUS". :)

P2D2 says

WillyWanker says

If you can’t tell that I am being facetious you must be as dense as a brick.

We all know you were always “facetious” - even when you start this very thread with title “Welcome To The Bottom: Housing Begins Slow Rebound (AP)“. And posts like this and this and this. There is nothing serious about those posts. All facetious.
So, if someday you want to post some serious stuff, please mark it as “SERIOUS”.

At the risk of repeating myself, it was your patent stupidity that assumed I was writing about a 3500 square foot 'mansion'. What a fool and an oaf you are. Care to explain which one of your orifices you pulled that out of? Obviously it comes from somewhere around your nether region, as it has the stink of your trash all over it.

Furthermore, if you don't think I am 'SERIOUS' why are you bothering posting on this thread? Why bother participating in a thread I originated if you don't find it 'SERIOUS'? Doesn't say that much about you, your intelligence, and the amount of time you have on your hands, now does it?

But thanks for playing. *waves goodnight*

That describes me pretty well too, except I didn't grow up in a trailer, and have 2 kids. And my old beat-up car is Japanese, so it does function most of the time. And I'm white. Does that make me white trash?

WillyWanker says

At the risk of repeating myself, it was your patent stupidity that assumed I was writing about a 3500 square foot ‘mansion’. What a fool and an oaf you are. Care to explain which one of your orifices you pulled that out of? Obviously it comes from somewhere around your nether region, as it has the stink of your trash all over it.

Typical Wanker. You are trying to avoid addressing your original claim where you said 3500 sqft Palisades home is available for $450K. The issue is not whether someone calls 3500 sqft "mansion" or "dollhouse" or "doghouse". The issue is that you said 3500 sqft home (without "ocean view") available in Palisades for $450K. In reality for $450K you won't get a mobile home in Palisades.
So let me ask you very same question: which one your orifices excreted the statement "you can buy a 3500 square foot for $450K right now in the Palisades, you just don’t get the ocean view"?

WillyWanker says

Furthermore, if you don’t think I am ‘SERIOUS’ why are you bothering posting on this thread? Why bother participating in a thread I originated if you don’t find it ‘SERIOUS’? Doesn’t say that much about you, your intelligence, and the amount of time you have on your hands, now does it?

LOL! Now I get it. You are spewing "serious" bullshit. Then if someone here proves your statements/claims factually incorrect, then you start complaining like a drama-queen: "I was just being sarcastic. Why don't you understand what I IMPLIED?"

You are full of bullshit, Wanker.
The cherry-picked statements/lines/paragraphs you quote from news those articles are full of bullshit.
The absurd conclusions you draw from those articles and the absurd opinions you make are full of bullshit.

WillyWanker says

But thanks for playing. *waves goodnight*

You too, Wanker. Don't forget to post another news article about your "bottom" tomorrow - with title "Welcome To TheMY Bottom: Housing Begins Slow Rebound (AP)".

P2D2 says

WillyWanker says

But thanks for playing. *waves goodnight*

You too, Wanker. Don’t forget to post another news article about your “bottom” tomorrow - with title “Welcome To TheMY Bottom: Housing Begins Slow Rebound (AP)“.

Would you like to munch my 'bottom'? Why else would you be referencing it? Thanks, but no thanks, girlfriend. I don't want your lips on my 'bottom'.

WillyWanker says

Would you like to munch my ‘bottom’? Why else would you be referencing it? Thanks, but no thanks, girlfriend. I don’t want your lips on my ‘bottom’.

Damn, your "bottom"-full bullshit everywhere. Just look at the title of this very thread.

I don't see your brain here. Just your bullshit and bottom.

P2D2 says

WillyWanker says

Furthermore, if you don’t think I am ‘SERIOUS’ why are you bothering posting on this thread? Why bother participating in a thread I originated if you don’t find it ‘SERIOUS’? Doesn’t say that much about you, your intelligence, and the amount of time you have on your hands, now does it?

LOL! Now I get it. You are spewing “serious” bullshit. Then if someone here proves your statements/claims factually incorrect, then you start complaining like a drama-queen: “I was just being sarcastic. Why don’t you understand what I IMPLIED?”
You are full of bullshit, Wanker.

The cherry-picked statements/lines/paragraphs you quote from news those articles are full of bullshit.

The absurd conclusions you draw from those articles and the absurd opinions you make are full of bullshit.

You have proved nothing but your own stupidity. You write that I'm not 'serious' but YOU come on this thread to squawk like a bitch and think I'm not going to call 'bullshit'? Well, you are wrong, Mary, and I would reference your own posts for displays of pure crap~ola. Obviously you are captivated by this thread, or you wouldn't be spending your time here.

P2D2 says

WillyWanker says

Would you like to munch my ‘bottom’? Why else would you be referencing it? Thanks, but no thanks, girlfriend. I don’t want your lips on my ‘bottom’.

Damn, your “bottom”-full bullshit everywhere. Just look at the title of this very thread.
I don’t see brain here. Just your bottom.

Obviously, my 'bottom' has become an 'idee fixe' with you. Quit fixating on my 'bottom' and go on with your life.

P2D2 says

WillyWanker says

Would you like to munch my ‘bottom’? Why else would you be referencing it? Thanks, but no thanks, girlfriend. I don’t want your lips on my ‘bottom’.

Damn, your “bottom”-full bullshit everywhere. Just look at the title of this very thread.
I don’t see your brain here. Just your bullshit and bottom.

LOL. I love how you went back to your post to edit out your fixation on my 'bottom'. Get a grip.