patrick.net

@EBGuy,

Hey thanks! Seriously though, the timing issue was hardly one of my choosing. Given the dollar amounts involved I'm aware that a lot of posters here wonder why I even bother tracking the bubble?

Which brings us to our next "point of the matter". Because there are (I'm told) several other "full price offers" on the table they are sweatin' me big time!

"Got that appraisal done yet?" "If you need help financing I've got a really great gal that.....". I get a call from the seller's (nominal) realtor every 3rd business day "just checking in" or "wanting to see if things are still on track". Sheesh, I mean after all, it HAS been all of 2 weeks! My wife and I sat down last night and agreed if they don't cool out and I mean fast we may STILL walk! We're very unhappy with this urgency but even more unhappy w/ the fact that we're "competing" totally with local realtors. Still flush w/ bubble bucks and probably looking for that golden parachute of a completely paid off place from their "great run".

The unit below us was sold.... to a realtor, that is selling her McEstate post haste and downsizing "for spousal health reasons". Now I DO happen to know the poor guy is sick, (but he's been sick for a LONG time!). Again, why the sudden urgency!? With all that's going on in our lives (and being self-employed) this may be a big priority for them (they seem obsessed with having the other offers walk) but it's hardly a priority for US! I just can't seem to get that across?

Only a bit over $ 5 million an acre — I bet Randy is ready to scoop that up and build his custom dream home

In the past week I walked through three, yes 3, +1 acre properties with decent (one quite nice) homes on them in Mill Valley & surrounds. The most pricey was $1.8mm.

These jokers trying to sell 1 acre for $1mm on virgin lots located in a municipality are dreaming. There's one lot in Corte Madera adjacent to county preserve land which has been for sale for years. The problem isn't the lot; it's the fact the price doesn't reflect the risk or cost to develop it, given the years you'll have to spend fighting the city and NIMBY activists.

They tend to be a bit smaller and on smaller lots, but I prefer the walkable neighborhoods.

Walkabout neighborhoods are EXACTLY what the terrorists would want us to do. They hate the freedom that we get from cars.

I like walkable neighborhoods too. But view is the number one priority. If a house is uninspiring, it is useless to be "close to transit" or "close to employment."

Ha Ha, by the time your business faces serious competition, you better just close down and pioneer something else. I guess large public companies cannot do that.

I am not afraid of competitions, just anti-competitive.

"Walkabout neighborhoods are EXACTLY what the terrorists would want us to do. They hate the freedom we get from our cars."

Are you suggesting we make our neighborhoods more camel friendly? :)

I used to live right next to CA-85. At night, the freeway sounded like waves.

You can paint something like beach/ocean scenery on the freeway wall and pretend that you are in Hawaii.

Why is Danville so expensive, compared to say Dublin/Pleasanton ? Or they are all similar in terms of cost of housing ?

You can paint something like beach/ocean scenery on the freeway wall and pretend that you are in Hawaii.

I do not like Hawaii. Too hot and humid.

The funny thing is these people RAVE about the "convenience"! There is something to be said for that but you'll notice most people will choose peace and quiet over convenience in the long run. Yeah, inspiring would be great but.... don't these people have homes to go to!

Somehow I do not like open ocean view. Water must be backed by mountains.

RE: peace and quiet

What do you guys think about the Spring Valley area in Milpitas? Does it have smaller homes?

I'm good with this:

http://www.travelsmart.net/ph/resorts/Zamboanga/Dakak_Resort/

:)

Oh... what they strategically leave out of the pictures is the 10' fiberglass satellite dish on one of the mountains required to get game on. Rabbit ears just don't cut it.

Somehow I do not like open ocean view. Water must be backed by mountains.

OK. Then paint a picture of some waterfall.

ubermonkey :

Thanks.

salk1,

Haircut? How about a scalping!? :(

Do you recall when it was assigned a bubble value of 2.3 mil?

I'd heard stories coming out of FL (Sentinel Journal?) back about 6 months ago where fine folks in upscale areas had their homes on the market for a year with NO offers! Then all of a sudden they get an offer 100-150-200k above asking? Turns out everybody was playing 'musical houses".

Isn't it great when neighbors stick together like that?

However, a couple of years ago, I met an Australian navy officer who said they were still dealing with piracy around the Sulu archipelago.

Perhaps Global Warming will not affect this area.

Honestly if not for the commute, I would seriously consider living in Alamo or Danville. East Danville has lots of newer gated golf communities while the west side is considerably older and more rural. West Alamo is quite like Woodside with long narrow and shaded roads going into acre+ properties. I don't know if A/C is needed for summer nights since both places are noticeably hotter than BA.

They also seem to have higher median income than most parts of the Fortress (PA, Saratoga, Cupertino, MV, etc.), $125K for Danville and $149K for Alamo. I guess that both are newer developed areas with fewer prop 13 retirees to drag down the median or average. The housing price there, although similarly inflated, is more reflective of the general wealth of households, unlike in Los Altos Hills, there are no shortage of asset-rich, cash-poor seniors who could have been long kicked out of their homes if not for prop 13.

The good news is, both places are definitely heading for a fall sooner. Their listings are like 3x per comparable size of pop as opposed to the "fortress". The bad news is, you still have to commute.

Both places are also considerably more reflective of the demo breakdown in the US, aka, whiter. We stopped by a Safeway to get some drinks on the way back, it was a Sunday, and we didn't see one single Asian in the store. Can you imagine not seeing ONE single Asian in any Safeway in BA?

Honestly if not for the commute, I would seriously consider living in Alamo or Danville.

Honestly if not for the commute, I would seriously consider living in Northern Arizona. I will give up fresh sushi for the inspiring views.

Business is good in Silicon Valley. If you are in the South Bay, maybe it is time for to start looking in Tracy -- the Altamont Commuter Express is your friend. And they are making more land out there...
The Silicon Valley Leadership Group's annual CEO Business Climate Survey showed that close to two-thirds (63 percent) of respondents stepped up hiring in the past year, while only 11 percent downsized.

Housing "screams out as the most important concern of every group," the report said. A staggering 99 percent of respondents said housing costs are among the top three cost-of-living challenges, and 84 percent listed it among the top five business challenges.

"As I interview (job candidates) who might be living in another state, the idea of moving here frankly is a nonstarter," said Kim Fennell, CEO of DeCarta Inc., a San Jose company providing location-based services. "Most of them realize the cost of living here versus anywhere else in the United States is significantly more. As a result, the pool you're recruiting from ends up smaller."

SP,

I've always felt one of the most dangerous things you can do is make the assumption "you know what's up" in the P.I so I don't pretend to be an expert. I can say this though, as far as I know piracy is alive and well there.

One of the more high profile cases was the scuba divers at the resort in Palawan that were abducted in a long ranch, open sea, daring operation. When Arroyo was in office she took the position that these "extremists" or rebels were doing nothing more than abductions for hire and were really just criminals. Or pirates if you prefer. Even locals stay close to shore or in numbers when making a crossing. Bringing at least a revolver onboard is pretty much a given.

Still, I love the place. Tombobo Cove is one of the most beautiful places on the planet. IMHO.

OO Says:

> Can you imagine not seeing ONE single
> Asian in any Safeway in BA?

Try the Marina Safeway or the Burlingame Safeway (not as white as Alamo, but I would not be surprised if I didn’t see a single Asian, Black or Hispanic while shopping)…

But view is the number one priority.

No wonder you hate South Bay so much.

Lots of Forest Hill homes have ocean views, but not the ones on the side I showed you the picture of. Those do have views of forest covered hillsides though, which is quite nice.

I am not convinced an A/C is the only answer.

My climate control doctrine calls for the use of air-conditioning whenever inside temperature at 10pm is above 75 degrees. (Heat not needed above 40 degrees)

In much of the Bay Area, this will happen at least a few times a year.

Those do have views of forest covered hillsides though, which is quite nice.

Cool. :)

"I will give up fresh sushi for the inspiring views. "

Peter P, try the area outside Boise sometime.....

I live in a valley with the Owyhee mountains to the southwest and the Rocky mountains to the northeast.

Peter P, try the area outside Boise sometime…..

Nice! Looks like special places are not in short supply. :)

Actually it is a shock to go to the Boise Costco....all the shoppers are white and speak English. Often when I would go to the SJ Costco on Coleman Rd. (next to the airport) I would be the only white person speaking English in the store. There sure were lots of Russians and eastern Europeans babling away in their native languages at that location.

ptiemann,

Santa Cruz has fallen, sorry to inform you. Halfmoon Bay, maybe not, it is a bit too foggy for my taste. I have been there 20+ times and only sighted the Bay without fog once. Not sure about Alamo, but San Ramon is definitely getting more and more Asians, I heard of the place mainly from my Asian friends who are buying into the neighborhood.

There are already Santa Cruz housing development ads in Chinese newspapers. It will only be another 3-5 years before ranch 99 stakes out its presence near Santa Cruz boardwalk :-)

Last time we were visiting Santa Cruz and the boardwalk, we noticed the majority of sunbathers and boardwalk employees had Eastern European/Russian accents.

When we first moved to the San Ramon Valley 20 years ago, my husband and I thought we died and went to heaven. We first moved to Alamo and it was Very tranquil, and very safe. Schools in the DAnville, San RAmon, and Alamo area are very good for the most part. What we have been noticing throughout the years are: drugs are alive and well among teenagers, the population is no longer strictly WASPish ( the local Costco will give you a flavor of the mix of people) , and there are sex offenders living in million dollar homes. On the other hand, the area is mellow, and pretty, and we are close to the Walnut Creek and Pleasanton/Dublin job centers. My husband has been commuting to Fremont for the last 20 years.
Overt crime is low, and there are no obvious beggars and homeless people. We keep looking and we cannot find a better place to retire to.

Last time we were visiting Santa Cruz and the boardwalk, we noticed the majority of sunbathers and boardwalk employees had Eastern European/Russian accents.

I hope the men are not wearing those small speedos :)

The Danville Costco is rather small and old. Usually, the best Costcos are in the exurbs. Livermore has a huge and relatively unpacked Costco.

Let me say that I'm against all government subsidies unless a specific commons problem is involved (EPA, FDA, military, highways, etc).

I hope the men are not wearing those small speedos

Unfortunately, many of them were - think Borat (velly nice!!)

HelloKitty,
I wonder why that Malibu place only pays $3K a year in property tax when it sold for about $1.5million.

That doesn’t make sense: how can a loan have an interest rate of less than 4 percent? (It says most were even below 2.5%)

Person,
These are the infamous extreme "teaser" rates - ARMs or hybrid ARMs with very, very low introductory rates that quickly reset to much higher rates, often prime + a few points. The potential "fraud" in this is that many mortgage brokers apparently pushed the low rates to the client and the clients were not told explicitly about the resets, or they chose not to listen or read the details.

My point is, couldn’t you just refi after the teaser period, if the interest rate *really* is 2.5%, which would mean your balance *didn’t* increase? Which would then cost the lender lots of money?

Sorry I misunderstood. You're correct - in fact, FBs use ARMs to get the lowest monthly payment possible and serially refi'ed as the rates were about to reset. Lots of folks did this, and they kept their interest rates effectively low while making no dent on their principal since the initial payments even with a FRM barely dent the principal. Specuvestors, on the other hand would use very short term ARMs to get a very low rate and hope to flip the property before any rate resets.

The benefit for the mortgage broker is the fees for serial refi's. This paradigm came to a grinding halt once property values (via assessments) stagnated and then dropped. Now these FBs can't do the serial refi thing, and they are stuck.

Then there are the poor souls who weren't savvy enough to do the serial refi thing, and they are all of a sudden hit with a huge rate reset that knocks them out.

Holy $hit! Casey's really pulled the trigger! Who'da thunk it?