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What is going on?


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2007 Mar 21, 2:17pm   16,004 views  191 comments

by Peter P   ➕follow (2)   💰tip   ignore  

There appears to be a significant drop in inventory on listing sites. At the same time, open house activities appear to be picking up. Could this be the start of a considerable spring bounce? What is going on?

Perhaps we need to brace for some impact.

[Note: This observation has not been confirmed by most participants of this blog. Please do not be alarmed.]

Peter P

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134   HARM   2007 Mar 22, 11:12am  

Peter P Says:

The one thing better than winning competitions is winning without competitions.

If you have to compete, you are doing the wrong thing at the wrong time.

No kidding. Also, it’s important to remember that competition is really for us proles. The truly rich never have to "compete" for anything. The only "competition" going on in boardrooms is: (a) who can get the most outrageous compensation package, (b) who can (metaphorically) screw over rank-and-file employees and customers the hardest, and (c) who can (literally) screw the most supermodels.

135   StuckInBA   2007 Mar 22, 11:26am  

It used to be 10 years ago if someone was giving you 1 million dollars they a night with Demi Moore. Now they get a fixer in Cupertino.

LOL. But can she teach math to my kids ? Hah ... see that's why one buys in Cupertino. Your kids will be set for life. Glory and prosperity will be theirs. Live in a crappy house, give up all your youth years so that your kids can learn 2+2 better than other kids. You won't have money for their college, they MAY not give a sh1t about you when you retire broke, but hey ... you can't put a price on ELEMENTARY education.

136   astrid   2007 Mar 22, 11:29am  

Is there any proof that the same kid, over a lifetime, do better by attending a Palo Alto school rather than a Mountain View school?

137   StuckInBA   2007 Mar 22, 11:35am  

Is there any proof that the same kid,

What more proof do you need ? People paying 75% of their net income is not proof enough ? Are you doubting the judgment of so many geek parents "with a bad case of school fetish" (copyright SP) ?

138   astrid   2007 Mar 22, 11:41am  

StuckinBA,

A lot of this does come from FOB Asian immigrants' background of early age sorting. Suddenly maturing at 30 and becoming successful doesn't happen amongst the Mandarins of the East.

139   e   2007 Mar 22, 11:54am  

If you go down 85, and get off any exit in one of the major cities, you will see a new residential development right off the ramp. I’d like to believe that developers may assign a higher preference to lots NOT so close to the freeway if they have a choice.

I thought those were all rentals. Maybe we're talking about something different.

140   StuckInBA   2007 Mar 22, 11:55am  

I know astrid. It's hard to control the disgust, the shock.

I am quite confused about this market. As much sales are there, there doesn't seem to be any conviction. A few weeks ago I mentioned about the person who exclaimed to me, "It doesn't make any financial sense to buy right now, but I cannot wait forever !". That is one of the best quotes I heard in person. I happened to meet them again. They have bought, moved in but are very unsure about the smartness of their decision. They haven't lived there even for a month !

I see this in people around me. People know something MAY be wrong with the housing market, but they cannot get themselves to accept that the market can go down significantly.

The thing is nothing terrible has happened in BA. In fact things are better. Unlike the exploding inventory of Florida/Phoenix, or rising foreclosures of San Diego, BA is actually doing OK. Unless these things happen here (not in that proportion), some people will keep buying and feel smart abut getting 10% off last year's price.

141   e   2007 Mar 22, 11:55am  

In 1990 the workforce of SV was around 850K, todays its the same number if not less. So demand for housing has been flat for 15+ years.

I keep seeing this stat - but yet I find it hard to believe. I'll be honest, I wasn't here since 1990 - but those who have say that it's getting more and more crowded, and congested.

142   SFWoman   2007 Mar 22, 11:58am  

I haven't heard of an AIDS insurance policy. It seems that it would be an astoundingly stupid business model.

143   DaBoss   2007 Mar 22, 12:10pm  

view from silicon valley has great stats...

it matches my personal observations... i been here since 1970

yes we had a flux in late 90s but no rush to hire that amount of people again.

http://www.viewfromsiliconvalley.com/id54.html

144   astrid   2007 Mar 22, 12:12pm  

SFWoman,

I think BruceB meant the gays who, pre-AIDS cocktail treatment, cashed in their life insurance payment in anticipation of soon dying. Though I could be completely completely wrong.

145   DaBoss   2007 Mar 22, 12:15pm  

Mountain View school > St Francis High School has been the best over 3 decades... but thats never been the reason people living there.

Sunnyvale High was closed due to declining enrollment back in 1981.
SHS, Fremont, Cupertino, Homestead... ah home of burnouts/potheads...
Few of us were interested in Math and Sciences... Im one of them.

146   astrid   2007 Mar 22, 12:19pm  

Space Ace,

Yeah, that's what I was getting to. Reasonably bright kids with supportive parents should be able to succeed in any middling to good school. I don't see the obsession with going to the "best" school.

147   DaBoss   2007 Mar 22, 12:22pm  

eburbed-

My daily travel distance 12 miles is the same as back in 1990... 15-20 minutes its unchanged..

I still see traffic today from South San Jose to Mt View using 85 as I did back in 1985....unchanged. St Thomas and Lawrence is unchanged.. Depends on your commute.

148   DaBoss   2007 Mar 22, 12:23pm  

Your so rigth astrid...And i went to dopers school... I mean really rough crowd..so glad to leave SHS.

149   SFWoman   2007 Mar 22, 12:25pm  

astrid,

Thanks. That makes sense.

150   DaBoss   2007 Mar 22, 12:26pm  

StuckInBA - thats totally funny....LOL

151   DaBoss   2007 Mar 22, 12:32pm  

CB -
Homes in 1996-7 were fetching arount 110/sq ft... that home was way overpriced in 2001. The sellers were fishing for IPO lotto winners. And yes, as is.. That made me sick of the garbage i saw back in 2001. Thats when I first learned of the Fake Bids realtors were using on buyers. You saw prices double by 2000. 180K to 500K in just 4 years.. now same place is 700K.
Give me a break...

152   astrid   2007 Mar 22, 12:38pm  

Maybe I should not move to BA AKA Land of Lotus Eaters. If I move there I may never be able to leave again.

I took some Berkeley classes one summer and had my project mates describe Berkeley weather as "too hot for about one month in the summer and too cold the rest of the time". The mind boggles.

154   DaBoss   2007 Mar 22, 12:59pm  

SJ Merc Headlines.... ( i hope to see)

Cheaploans.com closing doors.
Other also fearing similar faith.

155   Randy H   2007 Mar 22, 1:03pm  

I finally earned my first capitalism 2.0 carryover blog troll from patrick.net. I think it's theOtherside's husband. I especially like the part about me being a metrosexual -- which I had to actually look up being I'm a bit slow and don't watch much tv. I have to say, thinking of myself as that made this month's blogging all worth the effort, lol.

Where I grew up we'd call this person a "choad".

Randy, you clearly have too much time on your hands as a rental-house-bound, stay-at-home modern-day metrosexual. Those "Stickiness" graphs of yours expose you as someone with some real "issues" you might want to explore with a pro and treat with med's, if you aren't already.

For the price range you can afford, you should be focusing your home search in the E. Palo Alto or Milpitas zip codes. It's no crime to be broke, Randy, but it is a crime to want what you can never achieve but think you deserve anyway and let that eat at you, day and night.

Posted by: Rankbull | Thursday, March 22, 2007 at 15:44

156   Peter P   2007 Mar 22, 1:12pm  

I miss trolls. :(

They seem to be having self-esteem issues lately.

157   astrid   2007 Mar 22, 1:19pm  

I don't think this troll is smart enough to know the definition of metrosexual.

Or it could be the latest iteration of jukubot...

158   DaBoss   2007 Mar 22, 1:23pm  

Nice!

Myth #2: Silicon Valley House Prices Never Go Down

http://www.viewfromsiliconvalley.com/id315.html

159   Peter P   2007 Mar 22, 1:27pm  

Or it could be the latest iteration of jukubot…

I don't think an autonomous vacuum cleaner is capable of trolling the site.

160   astrid   2007 Mar 22, 1:30pm  

Maybe Jukubot is an early version cylon. One day it'll come back as super hot blonds to terrorize us.

161   Randy H   2007 Mar 22, 1:32pm  

I hadn't considered the Jukubot angle. The anger does sorta sound a bit like "The Futurist" and his persistent phobia with "5th Columnists".

162   Peter P   2007 Mar 22, 1:35pm  

Perhaps there have been M&As among trolls.

163   Different Sean   2007 Mar 22, 1:46pm  

SFWoman Says:
I haven’t heard of an AIDS insurance policy. It seems that it would be an astoundingly stupid business model.

well... I dunno... there's not much 'moral hazard' that you will deliberately try to get the policy paid out, unlike burning down the business premises. it's more like a life insurance policy which does not exclude AIDS...

164   Peter P   2007 Mar 22, 1:50pm  

This post made me sound like a 5th columnist. :)

165   e   2007 Mar 22, 1:53pm  

Randy, you clearly have too much time on your hands as a rental-house-bound, stay-at-home modern-day metrosexual.

But metrosexuals are the ones, along with homosexuals, who tend to have the most disposable income!

On the other hand, I guess they don't buy in Cupertino... only SoMA...

166   FormerAptBroker   2007 Mar 22, 1:58pm  

astrid Says:

> Reasonably bright kids with supportive parents
> should be able to succeed in any middling to good
> school. I don’t see the obsession with going to
> the “best” school.

Almost all kids have a need to “fit in” and it is a lot easier to raise a kid that is trying to “fit in” with the kids in their school who are smart, well dressed, and headed for top colleges than it is to raise a kid who is trying to fit in at a school where the kids are dumb, dress like gang members and are headed for prison…

167   Peter P   2007 Mar 22, 2:02pm  

New thread: Negotiation

168   FormerAptBroker   2007 Mar 22, 2:07pm  

Randy H Says:

> I finally earned my first capitalism 2.0 carryover
> blog troll from patrick.net. I think it’s theOtherside’s
> husband.

I wonder if stalking laws apply to trolls?

> I especially like the part about me being a metrosexual
> which I had to actually look up being I’m a bit slow and
> don’t watch much tv. I have to say, thinking of myself as
> that made this month’s blogging all worth the effort, lol.
> Where I grew up we’d call this person a “choad”.

I’ve never thought of Randy H. as the type of guy I would spot drinking a chi tea latte chatting with the girls on Chestnut Street as a young Korean girl rolls up is $600 jeans to start on his pedicure…

Adam Carrola from the Man Show once defined a metrosexual as “a guy who is not ready to leave Straightsville and get on the train to Homotown”…

P.S. I had to look up Choad…

169   astrid   2007 Mar 22, 2:12pm  

FAB,

That's why I would not suggest sending kids to ghetto schools. I just suggest middling to good schools as opposed to "best" schools. Even average schools tend to have some good students for good kids to fit into.

Just as you don't want your hypothetical child to smoke pot and wear pants that hand around their knees, I don't want my hypothetical child to be think getting 1600 SAT or winning the Westinghouse is the end all be all of existence.

(I know a couple 1600ers, most of them are recovering burnouts; the 1500ers are fun; the 1250-1400 rangers are probably the most ambitious/successful).

170   astrid   2007 Mar 22, 2:21pm  

On the other hand, if I had kids, I'd send them to boarding school or home school them. I have no intention of sending my kids to public school.

171   Peter P   2007 Mar 22, 2:22pm  

The goal, if you still want a goal in your life, is to make enough money so that you children don’t have to get into the rat race. Whatever they want to do, they should do it out of passion and real interests.

They will have to find their ways themselves, perhaps with the help of an astrology or two.

I tend to think that kids are not necessary. My life goal is to start and run a meaningful foundation.

172   astrid   2007 Mar 22, 2:26pm  

GC,

If that should be the only goal in life, then what the heck would my kids' goal be if I succeed?

173   Peter P   2007 Mar 22, 2:27pm  

Would your foundation help me buy a nice woman and support my kids through college?

No.

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