patrick.net

Dude, this is so trippy, check this out, I took (100*50000K + 15,000,000)/101 and got the average salary for these 101 people, it's ~200K.

Ok, wow, then I took (1000*50000K +15,000,000*8)/1001 and got ~170K.

Odd thing about averages, they, like realtors, don't usually tell the truth.

Ha Ha, I know people at Genetec, Applied Mat, Intel, Guidant, Bayer, none of them make over 100K, none of their friends do. Your salary is not the norm, you are highly compensated.

"First of all, 160K is not an amazing amount and does not buy a FUCKING DECENT life in bay area ……" - Ha Ha

Why are you crying about making $160K?

DinOr

The dollar can be replaced as the reserve currency to the world. Currently oil and most commodities are priced in dollars. Even some currencies are pegged to the dollar like china's.

Like most dynasties and fairy tales, reserve currencies do not stand the test of time. Before the dollar became the reserve currency, the British pound was the reserve currencies. With the fall of the British Empire as the dominate trading dynasty ( complete with colonies including India). the dollar took over the role. The British pound was backed by metal as was the dollar when it assumed the role.

When will the dollar lose it role? I don't know when, but history will repeat and the dollar will fall. History shows the fall of the role of reserve currency came after the dynasty was lost, not before. The dollar probably will not lose the role until we lose the role of the only superpower.

DinOR,

A number of court filings, complaints, etc. were made public in the past couple days, so insiders can now talk a bit more. For the past many months a lot of people have been tied up as the NAR fought to keep Justice off thier back. But they failed, hoorah!

Just my opinion, but in the past when complaints have been leveled against the NAR's cartel, they used their immense lobbying power to get Congressional exemptions and such. But there is a very different attitude in DC right now vis-a-vis lobbyists, for obvious reason. I think this may be the perfect storm for the RE crime family--they can't depend upon Congressional favor when everyone's scurrying to distance themselves from K Street. And, on the merits of the case, the Realtors will lose their monopoly. Like I said, my client is among many who stand to gain substantially from "optimizing" the way RE transactions are conducted. It's not unrealistic to expect a vast majority of brokers and agents to disappear over the next 5 years. (I remember when travel agents insisted it couldn't happen to them. Then SABRE was opened up through the same legal process. It didn't even take 5 years for all those pesky travel secretaries to evaporate. So take the NAR's spin with a smile, they're fighting a losing battle.)

RandyH-

Fascinating story...I've often questioned why a realtor deserves such a large commision for "their effort". Change is long overdue, but it's heartening to see a possibility for healthy competition.

On another note, are you still following that home in Corte Madera? Have the sellers dug in their heels and refused to budge on price?

KurtS,

They took it off the market in December. I drove by it a few weeks back and it's sitting empty. Things are definitely getting softer by the day in Marin, as I've seen by what's selling in Corte Madera/Larkspur/Mlil Valley, and what's not moving. The home we're renting now in Tam Valley was going to go up for sale this spring, but the owner is whinning that he's not going to sell with these falling prices. I hope he doesn't, so some deserving family can buy it from him in a year or two for a reasonable price when he finally panics.

the owner is whinning that he’s not going to sell with these falling prices

Perhaps some Marin multiple owners have enough to wait it out, but will we eventually see a race to sell before the next guy? I do hope things get eventually reasonable; the Bay Area economy depends on it.

The problem with San Jose is essentially the people who live in San Jose. You see, the San Hosebagians are the leaders of the "I have a fancy purse, get the fuck out of my way" crowd. You might also know them by, "I am making lease payments on a C class Mercedes, get the fuck out of my way". I could wax poetic all day about the bottom feeders that fill San Hosebag, but that would be like laughing at the retards on the short bus. Ultimately unsatisfying.

It is a city without a soul, it is built on a garbage dump.

surfer-x Says:

"The problem with San Jose is essentially the people who live in San Jose. ...I could wax poetic all day about the bottom feeders that fill San Hosebag, but that would be like laughing at the retards on the short bus: ultimately unsatisfying. It is a city without a soul, it is built on a garbage dump."

It's losing its soul. Not completely soulless, but well on it's way to whoring out whatever spirit remains to various vultures, some of them indigenous and others, second and third-world.

San Jose lost a lot of its soul when the City spent $400,000 taxpayer dollars on a pile-of-dogshit-looking statue of the Aztec god Quetzalcoatl, replete with and enthronement ceremony by high priests in brightly-colored plumage.

Embarrisingly-obvious to anyone with even a grain of aesthetic sense, the "artist" who slapped the piece of shit together and then dumped it down town, no doubt laughed all the way to the bank, and back a few times.

When asked by the good citizens of the City why their hard-earned cash went to an religious idol that once stood for the blood sacrifice of humans who had their hearts cut out in propitiation--in other words to the Devil--the folks were reminded, "It's not a religious symbol, it's a cultural symbol!"

Meanwhile the annual Nativity Scene was banned in the City park to appease the savage liberals, who upheld the separation of Church and State, on the grounds that it was a "religious symbol, not a cultural one!"

I'm originally from San Jose. Spent my whole life there, with short time away for a year in Texas and a few years in the military. I now reside in Phoenix.

I can see where Surfer-X is coming from; however, San Jose did have a cool era, maybe not "golden," but classic Cali in its own way.

"Do you know the way to San Jose? La, la, la..."

They built this city on rock and roll then they let "them" kill it.

Damn them! Damn them all to hell for letting the floodgates open to the Barbarians for a few friggen' pieces of silver!

Woe unto its inhabitants!

San Jose is simply Columbus, Ohio which somehow got lost on its way home to the Midwest.

"For example, with my income and savings I am not able to buy a home in Bay Area." -- Ha Ha

Okay, so you are pointing out the serious problem we have here with our HousingPrice/Income ratio. All well and good, but still you should be thankful for what you have achieved.

"Things are definitely getting softer by the day in Marin, as I’ve seen by what’s selling in Corte Madera/Larkspur/Mlil Valley..." --KurtS

Kurt, do you think Marin will drop much? We have discussed the real estate "intangibles" much on this blog, and while I don't subscribe all that much to them, if there is any place that has the intangibles it is Marin County. I really do feel that place IS "special" and will be shielded from much of the downturn. Seems to me there is a lot of old money and tech boom money there and what not. Don't know if that makes the place immune though...

dear all
There is no need to be pessimistic about everything. Particularly 28 year old talking about the pillage on middle class. DEAR FREIND I feel your pain in some ways. Yes, people who work under me own 2-3 houses and in the hospital where i work they constantly brag about it all day long. This nurse, actually is avery very good person and i like her in a freindly sort of way. So i introduced her to this website, But people are greedy and their emotions take care of their money. SO THERE IS NO POINT ARGUING AGAINST PRICE RISE. IN FACT THE FED FEEDING MONEY INTO THE SYSTEM IT HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE SO MAY BE THE PRICES WONT RAISE THAT MUCH BUT STILL MAY BE STABLE ENOUGH. SO THE RENTERS WILL BE FORCED TO WAIT LONGER AND LONGER.
When the last renter has thrown in the towel and starts buying and thats particularly true with my timing, then the market starts stalling more and more and then may be decline.

You see when i grew up in india, i did not have anything extra, except food and education. So If u ask indians or chinese or people from the 3rd world they would say that it is ok not to own a house. My point is americans need to be prepared slowly , psychologically to accept that middle class will be exploited more and more. However having lived in the US for 13 years i find little patience and this has been instilled well into the immigrants.
But i fear that americans will want a quick fix. IF THERE IS NO FIX THEN U HAVE TO DEAL WITH AMERICAN RAGE. Americans as such are not able to deal with lifes complex problems as wellas say poor thirdworld people.
fOR EXAMPLE WHEN I GO TO INDIA I LOOK AT THE DAY LABORER WHO EARNS LESS THAN A DOLLAR A DAY AND STILL IS ABLE TO SMILE AT U AND GO THROUGH LIFE. sO MY POINT IS THAT IN LIFES COMPLEXITY ONE HAS TO PUT THIS ACQURING MENTALITY¨IN CHECK.

ALSO IF U ARE YOUNG AND CAN AFFORD TO TRAVEL , PLEASE GO TO ARGENTINA, BRAZIL AND THEIR ARE MANY WHITE AMERICANS LIVING THERE. In fact i am enjoying argentina now. ITS AGREAT COUNTRY, VERY HUMBLE PEOPLE AND YOU GET EVERYTHING THAT U CAN GET IN THE US AT FRACTIONAL PRICES. But life is not easy no matter where u live. the hard part is there are no answers.

I agree that San Jose is a lost city. Except for the downtown money pit it's all burbs, urban sprawl. Downtown saturday night is all thugs and cops. ...
but is San Francisco any better? As you drive through in your protective incapsulation(car), you see wayward youth with little hope and middle age
drop outs mixed in with the many mentally ill that were released by Ronnie. Downtown is no place for a decent law abiding person unless you own a business selling chinese food or sell phones and pagers. Go out to the never ending San Jose burbs. It's just so repetitive. Each neighborhood is so plain and dull. The housing bubble has made it obsene too. I mean, at least before you could see why some would live in the SJ burbs, but now your either a fool for buying or a fool for not selling .. Either way, everyone looks like a fool in these SJ burbs.

I know I feel foolish for staying here so long only to watch it slowly go down the shitter. One of these days I'll pack up and move to some beachtown or maybe to the desert. Not too many people live out in the desert. That's the best thing about it.

I want to get rid of my other thoughts too today. My sister who is an expert at political philosophy thinks that the middle class usually sheilds the upper class from the lower class.
If you just have haves and nave nots, with no grey area IE the middle class then the game is over because u cannot exploit the have nots any more.
Look at the welfare sceme in america And i dont blame them because they dont get paid the right wage. I GET PAID TOP DOLLAR IN THE US, SO I PUT UP WITH ALL THE HASSLES AT WORK, HAVE TO PUT IN120 HOURS/WEEK.
My new game is i work part time and spend rest of the time travelling to third world countries where i get better bang for the buck. Also if u dont work too hard then u dont pay too much taxes. This will aslo improve ur perspective.
I am in argentina now and i see that a lot of old people are still working, the hair dresser who must be in her 70-80 is still working. she tells me that she has been doing this for 40years. In THE Us they only do it if they like the job too much. However in the usa we have this concept of retiring at least rich enough so when we can no longer work we can start using that avings. This concept may be detroyed by the fed and the republican for the middle class.

Its actually sad because today in argentina i saw a cab driver who has Parkinsons disesase, he has got thetremors and that too looks obvious, he is still working. Probably got caught in the mess of the financial crisis in argentina.
i am going to stop now.
Bye for now

100k incomes are not that unusual at my hi tech company that employs about 35000 people. A simple SQA eng can make that and not even be that good. I dout that it's average though. I think average at my company is about 60k. That's because of the burn out rate and the propensity to bring in the young blood that starts out at 50k. Heck, I damn sure remember when high level people made 50k. Now, your very likely disgruntled if your pulling that kind of cheddar.

I actually concur with hessefan, I believe that in the next decade, whether the RE bubble bursts or not, or how badly it bursts, the quality of life for an average American will be heading down. We will also be seeing the middle class as a whole marginalised.

Americans grew up with an attitude of I deserve better, I deserve this big home, latest gadget, nice car etc. the list goes on and on. Sometimes I want to tell my American colleagues to see the living condition for the rest of the world, not even in China or India, but a middle class family living in France, or Japan, see what kind of living condition they have as compared to the US counterparts.

Americans are spoilt. USD's status as the world's reserve currency earned us so many free miles, but the day of reckoning will arrive. Debt must be paid, and lifestyle must come in line with earnings. Simple as that.

San Jose is simply Columbus, Ohio which somehow got lost on its way home to the Midwest.

Smile, beer in hand, fucken ehh Randy, god dammit dude, if ever in $anta Barbara, the first 3 bottles of Pinot are on me, I’ll even throw in a grass fed ribeye.

Then.... oh my fucking god* Now, your very likely disgruntled if your pulling that kind of cheddar.

Never, well at least since my buddy Chris described his bunghole as a "balloon knot" did I laugh so hard. Pulling that kind of cheddar, and for Jeebus H Christ sakes, he spelt cheddar correctly, unlike that sister fucking whitebread piece of shit sunnyvale_renter, DUDE it's CAMARO you fucking Luddite.

*Not your god, my god, you fucking piece of shit christians, fuck you and your god, and Pat Robertson. Assholes. Go to fucking hell, your hell, not mine. On second thought, my hell.

Oh and Hessesfan, Love the name. I personally love the 3rd world. Every 2 years I buy a car for no more than $200 and drive it as far into Mexico as it will go. So far I've made it to Chiapas.

Nothing beats buying a solenoid for a '72 duster from a woman standing on a dirt floor in Mexico*. Remember, in Spanish bolt is tornillo and SV_renter is a pendejo

*Fuck you SV_Renter, go the fuck back to Idaho

"“Things are definitely getting softer by the day in Marin, as I’ve seen by what’s selling in Corte Madera/Larkspur/Mlil Valley…” –KurtS"

SF Renter-
Actually, I think RandyH said that, not me. Still, I've noticed a softening in the Fall, but I've taken my attention off things until Spring.

Regarding "intangibles", I do agree that Marin has many pluses to living here, but all the same, most homes and neighborhoods are rather average too me: middle-income houses, with average construction/condition that don't merit these exhorbiant prices. I mean, who wants to devote a $200K salary to an unimpressive 4BR/2000 sqft tract home? I know many people believe Marin is shielded somehow, but I can't decide if that's due to Marin's endemic view of itself, or some actual market strength. Perhaps a bit of both. All the same, if the Bay Area market tanks, it will surely pull Marin down with it. I suspect the credit bubble has a greater reach than merely housing prices, and will ultimately affect Bay Area wages, and spending power. The era of McMansions, 700 sqft kitchens, overpriced "artisan" foods, Humvees, and other excesses of consumption could be ending. Much of Marin lives for this "good life", whether they can afford it or not. It may well hit harder in Marin than the more modest locales.

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Sport your local yuppie a headbutt. Shit, must not booze and email.

Ecchs?

What's that Cracker?

Too bad you and your Mom were cashing food stamps to buy burgers, (remember those special trips to miccydees when you dad was drunk?) when i was getting a Ph.D on the guberment dime*

*Note: not investment advice.

C-A-M-A-R-O*. Fool, not Camero, which, of course, is the true mark of a uneducated redneck.

*I've had two, both bought from the original owners, #1 was a '67 SS/RS 350 champagne gold with white top and #2 '68 RS covert with deluxe interior.

Jackass.

But neither were as pimp as my current '63 Diamond Blue Tbird, bought also, from the original owner.

Note: Bought means the title, under the "owner" section says "Surfer-X". SV_Renter, this is similar to when you and your Mother use your Section 8 vouchers and pencil in the "owner", but a bit different in that the "owner" in your case is the bank. But hey, similar to you, I used guberment funds to get a Ph.D, while you used the W.I.C. funds to help pay for yet another mouth to feed.

I guess greed will blind people to anything even if it is as plain as day. Same thing with other emotions too i guess. I guess when u fall in love your brain refuses to see any negative side effects, so u fall in love. a month later u realize this has been a folly played by your own brain. some people are brave enough to accept it and move on, others may be retarded and hence stick on with their life and hang on to the memories and work hard to make it work.

I think the media in every country is a big fraud. I was watching a commercial in spanish language, It was about a cardiac surgeon doing a cardiac transplant and how successful it was and shows some kids smiling. Not only the cardiac surgeon but the hospital that was doing it was mentioned. When i saw it it evokes a lot of emotions in any person. U IMMEDIATELY THINK WHAT A GOOD THING THAT THESE DOCS AND HOSPITALS ARE DOING. 2) 1=2 years ago i saw another add about pakistani kids being treated in Bangalore hospital, India. It was played all over the media But when the hype is over if you analyze what was done and why u will realize their is a motive. I think it is a propoganda for these docs and shameless publicity for the hospitals. These same countries cannot take care of their own children. But joe public cannot analyze deeper or dont bother about it until it affects them personally.

Let me make it a little more interesting here. Cricket is a national pass time in india, pakistan, srilanka, commonwealth countries. I still love watching it but i wont bet my farm on it anymore. the cricketers are very highly paid prostitutes, they do all kinds of deals and win or loose based on some gambling spots in the underworld of DUBAI. Actually this story has a lot of credence because one of the pakistani fast bowlers, sarfraz nawaz, has already broached this topic. In 2004=2005 Indians were invited to pakistan to play cricket matches there. there was a lot of tension in the air because apparently osama was hiding in pakistan occupied kashmir and the Indian army was in combat position with pakistani army all along kashmir. Some how President Musharraf convinced the Indian govt that the indians had to play in pakistan and probably the matches were fixed way in advance. Indians won some cricket matches there in pakistan and it was the first time. Indians have never won games against pakistan before particularly in pakistan. Actually pakistans team had some of the best bowlers in the world.

For the ordinary Joe public it seems all is well and are carried away by the emotions of winning/loosing. Then during the same time the pakistany army bambarded some of the north west province because apparently osama was hiding there. Now imagine the hue and cry if your own army goes into texas and starts bombing the hell out of waco, but if the media is covering some other football game the outrage is may be reduced. such is the power of all the 5 net works in USA. They are now concerned about howmuch howard stern makes.

Look at the alito show. Look the media covered alitos wife crying when democrat leader, J. Biden asked tough questions. Oh poor mrs alito, look when your husband gets elected he is going to make so many women cry because they are going to have to go out of the usa to get an abortion.
BTW¨: i dont beleive in abortion. However i also dont beleive in imposing my religious/ social views on any body else. Why is the state deciding what a woman can or cannot do. There is no difference in this aspect between The so called USA and the taliban of AFGHANISTAN.

I just VIOLENTLY REACTED to the MYTH that 100K is HIGH SALARY …. that is all

Herein lies the problem when people try to use unbounded statistics to "prove" their point. Firstly, 120K, or even 100K are neither the average nor median salaries for the BA Metro census area (actually the dataset is San Jose Metro in Federal data).

Secondly, either statistic (the true median is closer to 70K, family income) is meaningless without considering the variability and bounding measures. As an exercise to Haha, go look up the standard deviation of family income. The BA has an extremely high variability to salaries, which diminishes the relevance of the median or average. Secondly, the confidence interval for all this data is pretty low. I'll have to look, but I think it's 80% or lower. This means that there is only a 1-in-5 chance that these statistics accurately predict family income.

there is only a 1-in-5 chance that these statistics accurately predict family income.

Correction: there is a 1-in-5 chance that these statistics do _NOT_ predict family income.

Someone on here said:

"The era of McMansions, 700 sqft kitchens, overpriced “artisan” foods, Humvees, and other excesses of consumption could be ending."

Just as long as I can get my Safeway Select, "Artisan" Ciabatta bread
for 99 cents, that's all I care. Tortillas be damned!

Slap on a piece of baloney, a thick slice of American cheese, a little mustard, and I'm on my way over the hill from San Jose to Santa Cruz, via Highway 17.

I got my four-pack of Cali Coolers in the trunk, boogieboard in the back seat, the Outfield blaring from my stereo, and hot babes in skimpy shorts on my mind and...

...and then I woke up in Phoenix, from a pre-housing bubble, circa 1980s round of California dreamin'.

Come to think of it, Chiabatta wasn't even invented then. Funny how the mind leaps from concept to concept in a dream. First you're here, then instantly you're there, in a kaleidoscope, or should I say Cal-eidoscope and fantasmagoria of prehistoric images and thoughts.

Oh, well, what does it matter anyway.

At least surfer-X had the enjoyment of owning some pimp Camaros. I could never afford one, but glad to know someone's keeping it going.

Surfer-X is probably one of the last dudes standing from the 80s era. I remember talking to surfers from the 60s, back in the 80s, who said the Cali beach scene was twice as pimped during those days, the Vietnam War notwithstanding.

I guess it just got gradually worse and worse.

I just feel the need to point the finger. I blame Huey Lewis and the News.

It's their fault!

I predict DEFLATION. The whole problem is when the collateral fails through foreclosures and bankruptcy pushing the houses (collateral) into the hands of the GSE's (Freddie and Fannie). This causes the mortgage backed bonds to fail or be seriously impaired. Borrowing against homes added $600 billion to consumers' spending power in 2004, according to research by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan. D

Banks will fail and cause commercial loans to medium or small business to disappear. Credit risk and credit rating will fall slowing the "velocity" of money and the GDP. The hundred of trillions world wide in derivatives based on mortgaged backed bonds will unwind destroying worldwide liquidity. The feds will step in to salvage and consolidate the surviving banks and thrifts after the collapse as the lender of last resort. The fed will be "pushing on a string", unable to stimulate the economy.

People will not be able to buy major purchases. Many foreign manufacturers such as Honda, Toyota, Chinese, chip or computer and memory maker will fail as Americans fail to buy. Commodities will fall.

Dark times will encompass the first world economy.

Ha Ha

Burning furniture from China is the problem. China and many countries encourage by treaties have developed export economies dependent on the US to take in their ever increasing production. This created an oversupply of goods and services (ie service jobs in India) in the export to the US countries. DEFLATION is overproduction chasing to few dollars. With the dark times from our collapsing velocity of money and unwinding derivatives the removal of our ATM borrowing from our home equity in the form of loans will DEFLATE not only the US but also the world.

jeffolie-

Overproduction is not sufficient to cause deflation. A requisite for a sustained deflationary cycle is lack of liquidity. Unless you posit that the Fed has no ability or is unwilling to pump liquidity, then deflation is extremely unlikely. Given the risk of deflation, the Fed will opt for inflation, even stagflation instead. The US has an enormous untapped capacity for "inflation solutions"--much greater than row (rest of world).

The velocity of money is increasing by all econometric measures, not "collapsing". This is primarily a transactional efficiency phenomenon.

Ha Ha-

Bernanke's statement is a macro truism (in terms of the ISLM model). If we carry current account deficits then somewhere else must have a savings surplus for the equation to balance.

OC Homeowner

Save all the cash you can and be very long term patient before you decide to move up to a bigger freaking house. The housing market in Japan has been declining for 15 years from 1990. So, wait, wait and wait some more. You will need a good credit history and maintain your employment for the consolidated remaining banks to give you a mortgage when you want it.

At least surfer-X had the enjoyment of owning some pimp Camaros. I could never afford one, but glad to know someone’s keeping it going.

Surfer-X is probably one of the last dudes standing from the 80s era. I remember talking to surfers from the 60s, back in the 80s, who said the Cali beach scene was twice as pimped during those days, the Vietnam War notwithstanding.

Senor Holliday, I was very fortunate in that I found original pimp daddy Camaro (camero?) owners who didn't want outrageous profit from their cars. I bought them in original condition, restored them and basically got to drive them for a few years for free. Regarding the Cali beach scene in the '80's, yeah it was flat out pimp. That's the problem, I know first hand how fucking great it can be. But as you probably know the best '80s period occured from 88-91, well at least for me. I was in undergraduate school at Cal Poly SLO and the Morro Bay/Pismo scene was outerworldly, tasty waves and cool buds. Well except for the fact I don't huff the bong. Shit so many parties that like the vile boomer scum and the 60's i don't really remember my undergraduate time all that much, it's all a bit hazy. I am forced to quote my "buddy" Jackie, "you were either throwing up or drunk". Ahhh. California still has pockets of greatness, my friends for one, this blog for another*

*Discounting the obvious troll factor.

on a full scholarship on your D average and shitbrown skin

Are you fucking kidding? Dude I'm a reverse coconut, white on the outside, brown on the inside. Shhhit my cracker friend, us mexi's can always take spanish and get a B*

*Cheech etal.

And my finacial aid package was nothing to write home about, but I must say that back in the late 80's there was much more "free" money for poor mexi college students then now. I got about 1/2 free the rest was loans, but the same package was available to your cracker ass also, but you would first have to stop blaming others for your blue collar hell. Now? It's a different story, all loans, but hey at least you can still go to college, but the problem is that the degrees now typically aren't worth the paper they are printed on. But I digress.

If you mean "The World is Flat..."--Friedman, then you should also read "Globalization and Its Discontents"--Stiglitz in order to gain insight into just how complex the entire global economic situation is. I think both Friedman and Stiglitz are theoretical geniuses, but woefully lacking in practicality. Easterly has a more profoundly realistic view.