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Let's have some fun with the bubble


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2007 Jan 30, 3:25pm   15,182 views  152 comments

by Peter P   ➕follow (2)   💰tip   ignore  

Perhaps we should position ourselves for some fun after the bubble bursts.

Perhaps we should have some fun now watching the bubble burst.

Perhaps we should just have some fun. Is having fun wrong?

#bubbles

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81   Peter P   2007 Jan 31, 7:11am  

I’ve heard good things about LaFondue in Saratoga, but I haven’t gotten a chance to eat there yet.

I heard it requires reservations *well* in advance. :(

Perhaps I will just make some myself. But the sauce is important.

82   Peter P   2007 Jan 31, 7:12am  

I have been to Switzerland twice and I loved the feel there. Perhaps I am just well-shielded from obnoxious people.

I do not like cheese fondue though. Too much cheese.

83   Peter P   2007 Jan 31, 7:13am  

If by “having difficulty getting a mortgage”, you mean banks won’t offer any better than a 3-year 9.75% ARM with 80% financing, even though that would be my only debt, ever, and under 20% of my gross, while I have 1/5 the value of the potential home in liquid assets, then yes.

What happened?

84   e   2007 Jan 31, 7:15am  

Speaking of the shoeshine boy stock tip thing:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/30/world/asia/30china.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

“Irrational exuberance” has no exact Chinese translation, but no explanation seemed necessary in the bustling lobby of GF Securities. Grungy-looking college students, office workers, retirees and even a pregnant woman in suede boots all jostled into the brokerage on a recent morning, eager to buy stocks and buy them now.
Skip to next paragraph
Associated Press

Chinese investors traded stocks last month at a securities firm in Shanghai. Day trading’s appeal is growing.

Wang Yu, 20, slouching on a black sofa in the lobby, said he had already doubled his initial investment of 100,000 yuan, or about $12,900, after jumping into the Chinese stock market barely a year ago. His parents had lent him the start-up money, but now he was feeling confident and mulling over a new investment. Commercial shipping containers, he predicted, could bring big profits.

“A lot of the older investors lost a lot of money, so they are not as optimistic,” Mr. Wang said. “I think it is going just fine.”

...

“When I go to the beauty salon, even the girls who give me a manicure are talking about stocks!” said Shirley Lei, a consultant in Shanghai who worries that inexperienced buyers could be cheated. “They ask me, ‘What should I invest in?’ They say they are doing research.”

Oh. My. God.

Should I dump all my China Mutual Funds now or later? :(

85   Peter P   2007 Jan 31, 7:20am  

But I have noticed the Swiss in the US are the ones that get on my nerves.

I have not met any. Are there a lot of them here? Does Switzerland recognize multiple citizenships?

86   Peter P   2007 Jan 31, 7:26am  

Excuse? “Credit history not long enough.” I guess those immigrant Hispanic families making $50,000/year together and buying a $600,000 house had better credit.

How long is your credit history? Perhaps you need a better loan broker.

87   astrid   2007 Jan 31, 7:28am  

eburbed,

Not investment advice but I'm dumping my China stocks (stupid load issues and all - no thanks to my father going specifically against my instructions) right now. All my aunts are getting perky and excited about the Chinese stock market. It's always possible that the government will keep it bubbling along until 2008, but I don't want to touch anything that whiffs so heavily of the "bubble."

88   astrid   2007 Jan 31, 7:30am  

Peter P,

As I understand it, it is extremely difficult to get a Swiss citizenship. However, getting a Swiss passport might be a bit easier. I'm not sure you'd be very happy there as Asian American expat, I heard they're quite xenophobic.

89   Peter P   2007 Jan 31, 7:31am  

I’m not sure you’d be very happy there as Asian American expat, I heard they’re quite xenophobic.

Oh, I am not going there. Where do they get my sushi? It is landlocked!

90   astrid   2007 Jan 31, 7:32am  

"But I have noticed the Swiss in the US are the ones that get on my nerves. Most dont remain neutral on US soil. "

Ha ha! Is that a joke?

91   Peter P   2007 Jan 31, 7:32am  

BTW, I am conceptualizing a warm seafood salad. If I get around to make it I will post the recipe on greencrabs.

I finally migrated my blogger account to "new" blogger, whatever that means.

92   astrid   2007 Jan 31, 7:35am  

Hmmm, I still need to add in my wet dough bread (very easy) and raisin foccocia recipe.

Mmmm, warm seafood salad...

93   Peter P   2007 Jan 31, 7:38am  

I am sorry that I did not contribute enough to greencrabs lately. Was busy watching Firefly and Wonderfalls.

94   requiem   2007 Jan 31, 7:41am  

Person:
I'm hoping that my single credit card (paid off in full each month) and student loans are enough to establish such a situation for me. I still remember being irked that sprint wanted a deposit when I first bought a cell phone.

95   surfer-x   2007 Jan 31, 7:47am  

Does anyone have any info on the Indian stock market?

The arbitrage on the wampum exchange will kill you. I hear it is as high as a painted horse.

96   FormerAptBroker   2007 Jan 31, 7:53am  

ubermonkey Says:

> oooh, I forgot to mention that this homedebtor extrordinaire
> celebrated his new purchase by putting a 6 inch lift on the
> truck he uses for his daily 140 mile commute.

I have yet to meet the owner of a vehicle with a “lift kit” (including both 4x4 Trucks and Donk Cars) that appears to have an IQ anywhere near the triple digits. There seems to be a direct correlation between stupidity and amount of lift. I’ve also notices a direct correlation between stupidity and custom wheel cost (The guys in the parking lot of Raider games with gold 24” spinners all seem like they dropped out of school in the 3rd grade)…

97   requiem   2007 Jan 31, 8:36am  

newsfreak: Do consider that a large portion of the US (think Nevada) is mostly empty space, and not a short drive for those of us in the BA.

500 h/mi gives over an acre per person, and if you give everyone a decent-sized lot of 1/4 acre, provides for a very large amount of open space.

/welcomes figures on BA population density, esp. for the urban areas.

98   HARM   2007 Jan 31, 8:40am  

@Surfer-X

wampum exchange

:lol:

99   Peter P   2007 Jan 31, 8:48am  

Switzerland - and Zurich especially has been voted Nr. 1 “best living” in the world.

I thought SF and Vancouver were each rated No. 1 "best living" in the world by something.

This is why every place in the world is special. So real estates never go down!

100   Brand165   2007 Jan 31, 8:52am  

newsfreak, have you actually been to Switzerland? It's beautiful there. We drove through the Alps down to Italy during late winter/spring thaw. The mountains and rivers are breathtaking.

Zurich didn't seem any more crowded than any other European or U.S. city. You just have to realize that the cities there take up comparatively more of the county than the U.S. As requiem correctly points out, there are huge swaths of nothing in the United States. A better comparison would be Maryland or New York vs. Switzerland.

101   sobs   2007 Jan 31, 8:52am  

One of the great things about taxes and Switzerland is that, if you have enough dough, they will write you a private tax treaty. That and the winking at what's considered tax evasion elsewhere is its main draw.

Well, that and the leather pants. ;-)

102   Brand165   2007 Jan 31, 8:57am  

I thought SF and Vancouver were each rated No. 1 “best living” in the world by something. This is why every place in the world is special. So real estates never go down!

Based on the same theory, we're all going to Hell because at least two mutually exclusive religions have dispatched the non-believers to eternal fire and bad YouTube re-runs. :twisted:

103   Peter P   2007 Jan 31, 8:58am  

Is East Palo Alto still #2 ?

That is a filthy thing to say.

104   Brand165   2007 Jan 31, 9:00am  

Punchbowl: I think you're forgetting about the trim, sparky blondes whose looks never age past a vintage 40.

105   David J   2007 Jan 31, 9:03am  

FormerAptBroker said:

"I have yet to meet the owner of a vehicle with a “lift kit” (including both 4x4 Trucks and Donk Cars) that appears to have an IQ anywhere near the triple digits. There seems to be a direct correlation between stupidity and amount of lift. I’ve also notices a direct correlation between stupidity and custom wheel cost (The guys in the parking lot of Raider games with gold 24” spinners all seem like they dropped out of school in the 3rd grade)… "

I've made the same observation over the years. Here are a few other things may be inversely proportional to IQ.

>The number and cost of after market accesories on your vehicle
>The size of your belt buckle
>The amount of jewelry worn at one time
>The number of tatoos a person has
>The number of body piercings a person has
>The size of your hat (applies to cowboy cultures everywhere)
>The number of sizes to big that your pants are (you droopy drawered diaper boys know who you are) etc....etc.

Of course there are exceptions to every rule.

106   Doug H   2007 Jan 31, 9:14am  

Help from Technos....

Hopefully, somebody here can give me an assist. I'm hearing impaired, not deaf, but it's difficult for me to pick up soft voices even with my hearing aids. I can adjust them and they do filter out some of the background noise....but here's the issue.

TV shows have, what's loosely called music, playing so loud I can't hear the dialogue w/o turning up the volume. CSI is the WORST offender with strange noises playing over the conversations.

Here's a regulator: http://www.tvsoundregulator.com/
I don't know if it's a gimmick or, if genuine, addresses my problem.

Can anyone point me to a solution? Thanks....

107   sobs   2007 Jan 31, 9:20am  

Brand: As long as they wear those leather pants. Spätzle also an asset. ;-)

108   StuckInBA   2007 Jan 31, 9:21am  

Indian stock market is roaring. Whether it's a bubble or not, is always being discussed. There are mutual funds here that invest in Indian stocks. Some are pure plays, some just have heavy concentration of Indian stocks.

I have no idea how trustworthy it is. Manipulation was rampant a decade ago, and there were very high profile scandals (google Harshad Mehta).

In 2003 beginning the BSE index was at 3300. Now it is at 14K. It has quadrupled in 4 years. Note : The INDEX. Individual stocks have done wonders. INFY has gone from $10 to $55 and still has a div yield of 1%, and PE of 45.

The economy is extremely strong. Not all sections have benefited, but many are genuinely richer that they were 10 years ago. A lot more people invest in stock market now.

It could be a bubble, but I was much more skeptical of dot com bubble than this. Although there is euphoria, these are real companies, with real sales and real profit. So it's scary and has unique risks.

109   e   2007 Jan 31, 9:23am  

Hopefully, somebody here can give me an assist. I’m hearing impaired, not deaf, but it’s difficult for me to pick up soft voices even with my hearing aids.

I'm hearing enabled - but I actually tend to keep the volume low and just read the CC.

Thank goodness for CC - it so allows multitasking!

110   surfer-x   2007 Jan 31, 9:24am  

Peter P, there's a really good Swiss fondue place in Saratoga called Jews Gold. There's no prices on the menu, just 7 digit numbers.

111   Peter P   2007 Jan 31, 9:27am  

Peter P, there’s a really good Swiss fondue place in Saratoga called Jews Gold. There’s no prices on the menu, just 7 digit numbers.

Huh? Million dollar fondue?

112   jtfrankl   2007 Jan 31, 9:33am  

swissmiss,

Can you please site where you got that 5% figure? Did ownership plummet by 30% in the last year and a half? I am not exactly "pro-ownership", but I also don't like to see made up figures.

http://www.swissinfo.org/eng/swissinfo.html?siteSect=107&sid=6029902&cKey=1125483769000

113   e   2007 Jan 31, 9:33am  

Actually, it looks like Automatic Millionaire might have good advice:

http://www.amazon.com/Automatic-Millionaire-Powerful-One-Step-Finish/dp/0767923820/sr=8-1/qid=1170293178/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/102-0589820-0660138?ie=UTF8&s=books

In the early part of the book Bach builds on ideas he established in Smart Women Finish Rich and other bestselling titles. His core principle is that, to succeed, you must "Pay Yourself First." In other words, he suggests using pre-tax retirement accounts (i.e. 401(k)s, IRAs, or Roth IRAs) to set aside a fixed, monthly sum of money before considering what is left for living expenses. The "automatic" part of the title comes from Bach's emphasis on using automated payroll deductions to avoid the temptation of using the money to pay today's bills.

Bach insists that "regardless of the size of your paycheck, you probably already make enough money to become rich." But his claims that his plan requires "no budget, no discipline," is a bit disingenuous. His discussion of the "The Latte Factor" shows that, to find money to start a retirement plan, a person with a modest income needs to make an up-front commitment to stop accruing debt and to reduce spending on such "wasteful" items as lattes and cigarettes.

In the end The Automatic Millionaire does not offer much that is new for readers already familiar with personal finance basics like accelerated mortgage payments, "the miracle of compound interest," and the setting up of emergency funds. But, for those just starting with financial planning, Bach provides a host of resources to put recommendations into action. He walks his readers through such fundamentals as shopping for interest rates, creating a balanced retirement portfolio, and consolidating debt. And Bach's conversational style will make this quick read highly palatable for those daunted by more detailed investment and personal finance titles. --Patrick O'Kelley --This text refers to the Hardcover edition.

I guess the housing stuff was just to bring attention.

114   requiem   2007 Jan 31, 9:48am  

swissmiss:
can you elaborate on the swiss tax structure? (e.g. what income levels are taxed at what amounts, and what benefits are provided that would be paid for with after-tax dollars here in the States?)

115   FormerAptBroker   2007 Jan 31, 9:48am  

Brand Says:

> Punchbowl: I think you’re forgetting about the trim,
> sparky (Swiss) blondes whose looks never age
> past a vintage 40.

It has been over 10 years since my last trip to Switzerland and just thinking about it now I can’t remember seeing a single fat person or meeting a single person that did not speak any English.

It’s sad to say that a Swiss person could visit many parts of the US and return home to say that they didn’t see a single thin person or meet a singe person that spoke Swiss-German (or spoke English as well as the average person on Switzerland).

The Swiss do age well and I can’t think of a country that has a higher percentage of great looking women in their 40’s and 50’s…

116   Brand165   2007 Jan 31, 10:18am  

newsfreak says: Brand- Ever been to the Never Summer range in Colorado? How about the Wind Rivers in Wyoming or the back side of the Rubys in Nevada. Or Pine Creek in Penna or Mt Marcy in the Adirondaks. How about Bryce canyon in the winter? Although I have the deepest respect for people who live and work in places like NYC or SF I for the life of me I will never understand them.

Of course. I live in Fort Collins, Colrado. My favorite weekend activity is taking a long drive up to Rocky Mountain National Park. I am from the East Coast, and have been canoeing in the Pine Barrens of New Jersey, camping in the Poconos and backpacking in the Adirondaks many times.

I tend to agree with you, I am not a city guy. That's why I moved out west. But you're making Switzerland sound like some densely packed hellhole. Their cities have a lot of people. The Swiss Alps are miles of craggy peaks and untamed wilderness with broad rivers running next to them. They easily give Colorado's Front Range a run for its money in terms of stark beauty. Little port towns dot the rivers, and tiny villages are nestled amongst the mountains. Switzerland is a beautiful place. I wish I had spent more time there.

Punchbowl says: Brand: As long as they wear those leather pants. Spätzle also an asset.

Hell yeah, spätzle is pretty wicked. Although once you get saturated on egg noodles, beer and maultachen (sp), the cuisine in Bavaria and Switzerland gets old fast. Northern Italy... I could dine there for a long, long time and not get tired of it. Plus I think Italian women might be the most beautiful in all of Europe, if not the most entertaining.

FAB says: It has been over 10 years since my last trip to Switzerland and just thinking about it now I can’t remember seeing a single fat person or meeting a single person that did not speak any English.

Well, first of all, Europeans smoke like crazy. Secondly, they walk damn near everywhere in town. I ate and drank like a fiend the last time I was over there, but the two mile walk to work every day caused me to lose some weight (plus hikes around Munich, Tubingen, etc.). And finally... they have this thing called "moderation" over there. Americans are often lampooned as voracious, greedy people who have an endless appetite for food, drink, sex, luxury and an easy life. We can't seem to restrain ourselves from vain attempts to live larger than life, as evidenced by reality shows and MTV garbage like Pimp My Ride.

I want to get back to Europe someday. Their attitude about what's important in life is just different than ours. For many in "eastern" Western Europe, a few candles, a bottle of wine and some good food shared with friends seems to be their primary objective in life.

FAB says: The Swiss do age well and I can’t think of a country that has a higher percentage of great looking women in their 40’s and 50’s…

I love Swiss women for their looks. They are like a fine wine that only gets better with age. Italian women might give them a run for their money, not necessarily on physically aging very well, but just for being really cool in their 50's and 60's. The nice ones are exciting and fun to be around no matter their age.

What I like most about Swiss women is that the aren't interested in trying to claw pathetically at a younger image. They age gracefully, and there's something to be said for that.

117   MtViewRenter   2007 Jan 31, 10:30am  

Swissmiss,

Re: taxes. I ran some tax simulations and you should only pay 1/3 of your paycheck to taxes (including FICA) when you get to around the $250k range. Do you get a decent sized tax refund every April or do you have large other income sources?

So, perhaps you're raking it in, or your employer is withholding too much.

I found this on Swiss income taxes: Link

At first glance, it looks like you will pay up to 30% in income tax (progressive scale), and another 10% social security. That doesn't sound like it's too far from what you see here.

118   e   2007 Jan 31, 10:31am  

I just always get the feeling that “renters” over here in the USA are some kind of “second class” people
and you don’t get this feeling over there - less pressure to bcome a home-owner

American Dream(TM)

119   e   2007 Jan 31, 10:54am  

Any economists here?

Could someone take a pass through this PowerPoint presentation?

http://www.prudentbear.com/Ppt/stillbear05.ppt

Are things really as doomed as they seem to be? Are we headed for a super bear period??

120   Brent   2007 Jan 31, 11:10am  

Anyone notice that most new Sunnyvale listings on Redfin today are all 0 bath and have either ALL CAPS or excessive *'s?

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