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If the Russians are at risk becoming a joke when it comes to conventional military operations, then the likelihood increases Putin does a Japan on the Ukraine.
They haven't even stopped most trade with Europe
There are certain escalations Russia would take before using tactical nukes in the Ukraine.
They are just now starting to target some of Ukraine's infrastructure, which they did not do until recently. That being the railroads and some refinery operations.
The more things go wrong for Russia, the more they up the stakes on what they target.
They haven't even stopped most trade with Europe. It was just last week that Putin got around to having his planners start to detail major trade impediments on his export markets. He gave them like 10 days to come up with the list. The deadline will hit near the end of the coming week. Expect some Euroweenie gnashing of theeth when the new trade positions are outlined. This upps the pressure on the EU. Putin is not escalating all at once (like having done this weeks ago). No, he feels quite convinced that he will win the engagement in the Ukraine with the assets he presently has. He will incrementally increase pressure b...
In the White House and Pentagon, large numbers of specialists are engaging in contingency planning in case Putin launches nuclear weapons.
"Either I will have everything that I want, or I will have nothing!"
In other words, people were bracing for a horrible civil war like Syria is still experiencing. The true nightmare scenario was that the Afrikaaner government would use its six nuclear warheads if defeat appeared imminent.
Amid all the fear, stress, and grim foreboding, an obscure female journalist wrote an Op-Ed in the Johannesburg Star. She urged calm. She pointed out that the average white Afrikaaner lived a life of comfort and affluence. They would not give up their comfortable life to "go into the bush and wage war."
I read this article 30 years ago. This humble woman got it right. There was a peaceful transition to majority rule.
Now we are facing another fearful moment. Russia has made serious threats of employing nuclear weapons because of the war in Ukraine. Very affluent people in Europe, the US, Canada, and I suspect, Russia are building bomb shelters on their properties. Iodine pills and Geiger counters are selling in large quantities. In the White House and Pentagon, large numbers of specialists are engaging in contingency planning in case Putin launches nuclear weapons.
At this dark moment, another humble journalist has stepped up to bring calm to a frightened and paranoid world. Arkady Ostrovsky is a name you have not heard. He is the Moscow correspondent for The Economist Magazine. I have been fortunate to have spent many hours in Zoom meetings with Arkady. He dresses and looks like a humble and modest man. If you encountered him in a restaurant or tavern, you would pay scant attention to him. You would assume that he was a low-level bureaucrat or supervisor in some small company.
Arkady is a man of awesome intellect. He has a social network inside Russia without equal. The wealthy and powerful as well as those in strategic positions of power "whisper in his ear." Arkady has interviewed Putin many times. He has spent a lot of time with him in social settings.
When the war started in Ukraine, he was spirited out of Russia and now works out of an undisclosed London office. He made a point to discuss the possibility of Putin using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine and Europe. He dismissed this possibility. He calmly pointed out that the Russian military officers delegated to care for, and fire nuclear weapons would refuse to carry out launch orders coming from Putin. He said that after this refusal to carry out his orders, Putin would be removed from office.