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A Chinese Invasion Of Taiwan?????


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2021 Apr 10, 3:58am   2,208 views  79 comments

by ohomen171   ➕follow (2)   💰tip   ignore  

Elena has been concerned as of late about mainland China forcefully retaking Taiwan. Before we get into the military challenges of such an action, let us look at the geopolitical considerations. The US and Chinese economies are intertwined to a great extent. If one party pulled away, their economy would collapse. The world economy would follow. Let us look at the special case of Taiwan and mainland China. Taiwan provides the mainland with a lot of FDI-foreign direct investment. When a Chinese company has a desperate need for skilled workers, the first place that they look is Taiwan. There is a huge volume of trade between the mainland and Taiwan. A military action would destroy all this economic activity.
Now let us look at an actual military operation where the Chinese military attempts to invade Taiwan. Ask the Nazis and the US Navy; it is very hard to invade an island. Nazi Germany could not even mount an invasion to overpower the UK. The US Navy struggled with all its island invasions in World War II. To invade an island, you need absolute air and naval superiority. Mainland China has an impressive military with large numbers. They would face US forces, Taiwan forces, and possible Japanese forces. They would not have absolute control of the skies and the sea. The Chinese military could not afford to inflict too much damage on Taiwan for the economic reasons cited above. They would also be sensitive to world public opinion.
In the end of the day, their only route to reclaiming what they see is rightfully theirs is "winning through intimidation." They will have to use psychology to intimate all opponents. The Japanese did this brilliantly in Singapore at the start of World War II.

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13   HeadSet   2021 Apr 10, 11:44am  

theoakman says
The difference between China and the USSR is that China has figured out how to use markets, slave labor, and currency manipulation to continually grow economically.

Yes, the USSR was Communist until the end, while China has evolved into a National Socialist fascist model. That way China can have the productivity and innovation of the limited market economy, while maintaining total autocratic control.
14   Misc   2021 Apr 10, 12:37pm  

On paper, it appears that China's elites are more beneficent than those of the US. They have over a 90% home ownership rate, with about 25% of the households owning more than one property. Household financial assets aren't published, but I bet they would compare well against those of the US.

Yes, they have an optics problem concerning their Uyghurs and their education efforts to bring this group into the 21st century, but we have similar problems concerning a large portion of the Blacks in this country.

We claim to have more freedoms, but after Covid, can we really make this claim?

If this trajectory continues, the people of Taiwan may just vote to remove their elites and go for mainland control.
15   Patrick   2021 Apr 10, 1:10pm  

Misc says
They have over a 90% home ownership rate


Not exactly. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) literally owns all the land in the country and everyone has to rent it from them.

Guess what happens if you express any view the CCP does not like.
16   Patrick   2021 Apr 10, 1:11pm  

Misc says
Yes, they have an optics problem concerning their Uyghurs and their education efforts to bring this group into the 21st century, but we have similar problems concerning a large portion of the Blacks in this country.


This is a false claim.

US blacks are not in labor camps. It's not similar in the least.

Is billionaire Oprah Winfrey oppressed? How about all those NBA and NFL stars?
17   HeadSet   2021 Apr 10, 2:37pm  

Misc says
On paper, it appears that China's elites are more beneficent than those of the US. They have over a 90% home ownership rate, with about 25% of the households owning more than one property. Household financial assets aren't published, but I bet they would compare well against those of the US.

Yes, they have an optics problem concerning their Uyghurs and their education efforts to bring this group into the 21st century, but we have similar problems concerning a large portion of the Blacks in this country.

We claim to have more freedoms, but after Covid, can we really make this claim?

If this trajectory continues, the people of Taiwan may just vote to remove their elites and go for mainland control.

50 美分
18   just_passing_through   2021 Apr 10, 2:39pm  

hahahahahahaha
19   just_passing_through   2021 Apr 10, 2:41pm  

Chinese elites still have to live in a polluted shitty air environment, just like the poor folk. Roads are too congested to drive those expensive cars more than a few miles. They aren't even allowed to drive those expensive cars every day.

That's why they escape to here and other places.
20   Misc   2021 Apr 10, 2:47pm  

Patrick says
Misc says
Yes, they have an optics problem concerning their Uyghurs and their education efforts to bring this group into the 21st century, but we have similar problems concerning a large portion of the Blacks in this country.


This is a false claim.

US blacks are not in labor camps. It's not similar in the least.

Is billionaire Oprah Winfrey oppressed? How about all those NBA and NFL stars?


We have more Blacks in prisons than they have Uyghurs in re-education camps. We aren't even trying to rehabilitate them any more. That was a 90s thing.

I am certain that the Chinese can point out a few hundred Uyghurs that are doing well under their system.

Our property taxes would seem similar to their "rent" based system.

They do have a social scoring model, but more Chinese travel internationally per year than any other country.
21   Shaman   2021 Apr 10, 2:50pm  

Misc says
We have more Blacks in prisons than they have Uyghurs in re-education camps.


The difference is that our blacks deserve to be there.
22   Misc   2021 Apr 10, 2:52pm  

Shaman says
Misc says
We have more Blacks in prisons than they have Uyghurs in re-education camps.


The difference is that our blacks deserve to be there.


Ever dealt with an Uyghur?
23   Ceffer   2021 Apr 10, 2:54pm  

Misc says
Ever dealt with an Uyghur?

No, but I knew a lady with a goiter once.
24   Patrick   2021 Apr 10, 7:33pm  

Misc says
We have more Blacks in prisons than they have Uyghurs in re-education camps.


@MIsc Did those black people in prison commit crimes? Yes.

Did the Uyghurs in re-education camps commit crimes? No.
25   HeadSet   2021 Apr 10, 7:45pm  

Patrick, you are arguing with a 50 美分

Next, expect a talking point justifying the Hong Kong crackdown.
26   Misc   2021 Apr 10, 8:06pm  

Patrick says
Misc says
We have more Blacks in prisons than they have Uyghurs in re-education camps.


@MIsc Did those black people in prison commit crimes? Yes.

Did the Uyghurs in re-education camps commit crimes? No.


They are mostly illiterate Muslims with poor ethics who need to be taught basic hygiene. The Chinese are trying their best to move a population from 5 AD to one that can participate in modern society. We gave up trying with the Black prisoners.
27   Misc   2021 Apr 10, 8:07pm  

HeadSet says
Patrick, you are arguing with a 50 美分

Next, expect a talking point justifying the Hong Kong crackdown.


No the Hong Kongers should have been left alone. I'm in favor of freedom of speech.
28   MMR   2021 Apr 10, 9:12pm  

Trump was ready to make Japan pay 8 billion for privilege of protection. Currently it is only 2 billion

Patrick says
Most Democrats do not. They are willfully blind in order to conform.


Quietly, Japan has rebuilt their military under the hawkishness of Shinzo Abe. Japan is quietly the 4th largest military in the world however they lack strike capacity. Its all defensive.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/feb/10/editorial-japan-becomes-the-worlds-fourth-most-pow/

https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/japan/2019/japan-190830-presstv01.htm


China controls much of the South China Sea but not the senkaku islands; Japan has been gearing up for showdown. Do they like trump who "extorted them for 8 billion" or Joe Biden?

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2021/01/28/commentary/japan-commentary/japan-unsettled-biden-election/

Trump sold India 3 billion in military equipment to as part of an effort to keep china in check

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-usa-trump-idUSKCN20J0J5

But both the US and Japan messed up the 4 billion dollar aegis ashore deal; having said that, public support for striking enemy targets is finally starting to waver.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/aegis-ashore-japan-scraps-us-purchase-missile-defense-outrage-at-home-trump-distracted/

Australia along with India, Japan and US is participating in naval exercises

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/20/asia/australia-india-malabar-naval-exercises-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

------------------

Aside from lukewarm support for the senkaku islands, Joe Biden will walk back most of the progress trump made militarily with Japan and India although there are mixed feelings on the tariffs.

Japan should definitely give the US more than 2 billion for the value of the land that they are protecting (senkaku is oil rich)
29   Misc   2021 Apr 10, 9:38pm  

Japan should have taken Trump up on the proposal that Japan have its own nuclear deterrent. When Trump said that, as well as his badmouthing of NATO, it was clear that the US could not be trusted to fulfill its treaty obligations.

NATO is one thing. The Europeans outnumber the Russians 5 to 1, but if the US is iffy Japan needs to be able to protect its sea lanes itself.
30   FarmersWon   2021 Apr 10, 9:40pm  

I am worried about china taking over semiconductor expertise of Taiwan.
TSMC/UMC etc. should build fabs in US for diversification.

Taiwan/US should also keep explosives ready to "blow up" fabs if china ever near control of island.
31   Misc   2021 Apr 10, 9:54pm  

farmer2021 says
I am worried about china taking over semiconductor expertise of Taiwan.
TSMC/UMC etc. should build fabs in US for diversification.

Taiwan/US should also keep explosives ready to "blow up" fabs if china ever near control of island.


Direct military action is not how China is getting the Taiwan expertise. It is old fashioned capitalism. They are paying the Taiwan workers more to work for China chipmakers than the Taiwanese are paying them. The Chinese will also steal any and all intellectual property they can, and they are good at that.
32   just_passing_through   2021 Apr 10, 10:50pm  

farmer2021 says
I am worried about china taking over semiconductor expertise of Taiwan.


^--- This
33   Misc   2021 Apr 11, 12:21am  

I'd be more worried about Xi Biden removing the restrictions in place on Huawei as well as America's propaganda against them.

Already the regulations against Tik-Tok have been abandoned.
34   BayArea   2021 Apr 11, 6:52am  

ohomen171 says
Elena has been concerned


Lol
35   RWSGFY   2021 Apr 12, 6:47am  

HunterTits says
Who cares about Taiwan?


Elena.
36   Patrick   2021 Apr 12, 8:41am  

One good aspect is that this might drive much chip production back to the US.
37   FarmersWon   2021 Apr 12, 9:34am  

Patrick says
One good aspect is that this might drive much chip production back to the US.


American sharp minds spend too much effort on silly software and casino economy of Silicon Valley.
It is hard to make good money in hard sciences.
It is failure of our system.
38   Ceffer   2021 Apr 12, 9:36am  

FuckCCP89 says
Who cares about Taiwan?


Elena.

i'm glad Elena isn't my muse. I'm sappy enough.
39   FarmersWon   2021 Apr 13, 9:20pm  

No amount of money should make China buy semiconductor expertise. I know How hard it is to develop and perfect this technology.
Software development especially social media is intelligence agency control apparatus and very easy to develop.
Europe needs to guard semiconductor technology. USA is run by idiots.

https://semiengineering.com/why-euv-is-so-difficult/
40   just_passing_through   2021 Apr 13, 9:27pm  

farmer2021 says
It is hard to make good money in hard sciences.


No it's not. I've made millions. Now, I'd agree with a modified statement, "It is hard to make good money in SOME hard sciences."
41   just_passing_through   2021 Apr 13, 9:28pm  

HunterTits says
Who cares about Taiwan?

Don't we have enough problems at home?


Nothing is going to happen in Taiwan any time soon. Not before the upcoming Beijing Olympics. Which we should boycott and peer pressure others into doing.
43   Blue   2021 Oct 11, 2:09pm  

Patrick says
One good aspect is that this might drive much chip production back to the US.

It takes minimum 5 yrs to see production if it ever happens. It's a great start from national security point of view.
44   B.A.C.A.H.   2021 Oct 11, 2:10pm  

Blue says
Patrick says
One good aspect is that this might drive much chip production back to the US.

It takes minimum 5 yrs to see production if it ever happens. It's a great start from national security point of view.


If starting from scratch. Wouldn't be starting from scratch, though.
45   Onvacation   2021 Oct 11, 3:47pm  

Blue says
It takes minimum 5 yrs to see production if it ever happens. It's a great start from national security point of view.

They can go warp speed on it.

Remember all the ventilators? AND we cured the cold in less than a year!
46   B.A.C.A.H.   2021 Oct 11, 3:53pm  

Onvacation says
They can go warp speed on it.


How long can it take, to build a fabrication facility, with existing know-how, proven technologies to build proven products, with existing infrastructure, and in some places, existing (idled) shells of buildings, compared to building the Manhattan Project which took more like three years?

Really. Five years is silly.
47   richwicks   2021 Oct 11, 3:56pm  

Patrick says
Misc says
Yes, they have an optics problem concerning their Uyghurs and their education efforts to bring this group into the 21st century, but we have similar problems concerning a large portion of the Blacks in this country.


This is a false claim.

US blacks are not in labor camps. It's not similar in the least.


No Patrick, I think you're wrong here.

If you're a white guy smoking crack cocaine, nothing happens to you especially if you have some wealth or celebrity.

If you're a poor black guy, you become slave labor.

Read the 13th amendment again, we really never eliminated slave labor. The PRINCIPLE reason that pot is sill illegal in most of the country, is because if it's legal, there would be a lot less slave labor in our for profit prison system.
48   krc   2021 Oct 11, 4:18pm  

richwicks says
If you're a poor black guy, you become slave labor.


Actually, no. At least in CA, most crime is decriminalized for whatever that is worth. For most petty crime or drug crime, no one goes to jail anymore.
Debt slave? You might have a point if you talked about child support laws...

The real "slavery" is where a man is forced to pay child support or go to jail. That impacts all poor regardless of race but blacks in particular because of the large number of broken families (though whites are catching up quickly). Men are forced to raise and support children they don't want if the woman gets pregnant - and she will "lie" and get pregnant in oder to grab onto that income. Worse case, the man doesn't provide enough - so she can get on benefits, etc...He still owes on his future income back to the child support system - it is a mafioso racket.

Note- Women can give up their children without penalty (drop off at a hospital within a certain period of time after birth, or push to an adoption center). Men cannot. And so on - the list is too numerous.... Even the EU has now decided that if a female is pregnant, she can adopt out the child without telling the natural father. And yet, if she decides to keep it, he is on the hook to support her and the child. This is coming the US soon as well...

Men are drafted - not women. Women do not have to sign up for the selective service.
Fewer and fewer men are going to college (women are close to 60%).
Etc...

By allowing unmarried women to control men's income as if they were married, society has encouraged the decline of marriage. Women get what they want whether they are married or not. So a lot of entrapment and lies and false/actual pregnancies happen....The laws are all tilted toward females - and men just let it happen. We have a matriarchy more than a patriarchy - no matter what the N.O.W. cows say...

Don't even talk about a sexual predator as a male or female in terms of jail time and life consequence. It is a joke.

Men are the real debt slaves outside of the alpha male 1%. Even then, you see ridiculous child support agreements (note these are not even married partners) that provide 30k a month to the child ( but is really spent by and for the mother).

Sad that we actually think the biggest disparity is "racial" - it is actually "gender".
49   Patrick   2021 Oct 11, 4:57pm  

richwicks says
If you're a white guy smoking crack cocaine, nothing happens to you especially if you have some wealth or celebrity.


Exhibit A: Hunter Biden
50   Patrick   2021 Oct 11, 9:21pm  

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10079319/China-won-AI-battle-U-S-Pentagons-ex-software-chief-says.html


The Pentagon's first software chief RESIGNS in protest because the US has 'already lost' the AI war with China and is '20 years behind its technology'
The Pentagon's first ever chief software officer Nicolas Chaillan said he resigned over U.S. inaction on technological developments in the military
He says China has already won the Artificial Intelligence battle
'Right now, it's already a done deal – it is already over in my opinion,' he said in an interview published Sunday. 'Whether it takes a war or not is kind of anecdotal'
Comments come as China threatened Taiwan with military action as it plans to 'reunify' with the island...

China, the world's second largest economy, is likely to dominate many of the key emerging technologies, particularly artificial intelligence, synthetic biology and genetics within a decade or so, according to Western intelligence assessments.

The communist nation is set to dominate the future of the world, controlling everything from media narratives to geopolitics, Chaillan said. ...

Tensions in Asia are high right now as the Chinese Communist Party detailed its intentions to reunify with Taiwan.

Chinese state media The Global Times threatened on Sunday that the CCP 'will have little choice but to take Taiwan to the battlefield' after the island's president, Tsai Ing-wen, vowed to resist 'threats' from Beijing.

Quoting from 'experts' within China , the paper accused 'secessionist' Tsai of stirring up tensions while warning that 'resisting reunification by force will only bring doom more quickly.'


This is all the inevitable result of the betrayal of America by American elites for decades.

They weakened us by outsourcing almost all US manufacturing to China, granting the Chinese a massive head start and devastating US businesses and jobs, all for their own short-term profits.
51   Misc   2021 Oct 12, 11:45pm  

Trump told South Korea, Japan and Taiwan to get their own fucking nukes.

The US cannot be trusted.

Afghanistan showed that in spades. For 20 years we schooled Afghan women and said they could be what they wanted. Biden fucked up the withdrawal and pretty much condemned them to lives of slavery.

Any country not getting their own nukes at this point needs new leadership.
52   FuckTheMainstreamMedia   2021 Oct 13, 12:27am  

DonewithDebate says
I am worried about china taking over semiconductor expertise of Taiwan.
TSMC/UMC etc. should build fabs in US for diversification.

Taiwan/US should also keep explosives ready to "blow up" fabs if china ever near control of island.


We need to let in more illegals and train them then. Decades ago I worked security in a tech company. For the production lines they only hired female Asians and latinas, the thicker the accent, the better. They wouldn’t hire whites because they would unionize(although all the line supervisors were white males) and they wouldn’t hire blacks because of the socially inherrent difficulties.

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