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Deaths from Wuhan Virus are not all that much higher than normal flu deaths


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2020 Dec 31, 11:15pm   951 views  48 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (55)   💰tip   ignore  

https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/12/30/what-is-left-to-say/

Here is the graph of overall mortality for all ages, in all countries. The graph starts at the beginning of 2017 and carries on to almost the end of 2020.



As you can see, in each winter there is an increase in deaths. In 2020, nothing much happened at the start of the year, then we had – what must have been – the COVID19 spike. The tall pointy bit around week 15.

It started in late March and was pretty much finished by mid-May. Now, we are in winter, and the usual winter spike appears. It seems to be around the same size as winter 2017/18. It also seems to have passed the peak and is now falling. But it could jump up again. [The figures in the most recent weeks can always be a bit inaccurate, as it can take some time for all the data to arrive]

Two things stand out. First, there was an obvious ‘COVID19 spike’. Second, what we are seeing at present does not differ greatly from previous years. The normal winter spike in deaths. ...

So, again, what have I learned about COVID19? I learned that all Governments are floundering about, all claiming to have exerted some sort of control over this disease and ignoring all evidence to the contrary. In truth, they have achieved nothing. As restrictions and lockdowns have become more severe, in many cases the number of infections has simply risen and risen, completely unaffected by anything that has been done.

The official solution is, of course, more restrictions. ‘We just haven’t restricted people enough!’ Sigh. When something doesn’t work, the answer is not to keep doing it with even greater fervour. The real answer is to stop doing it and try something else instead.

I have also learned that, in most countries, COVID19 appears to be seasonal. It went away – everywhere – in the summer. It came back in the autumn/winter, as various viruses do.

On its return is has been, generally, far less deadly. Much you would expect. The most vulnerable died on first exposure, and far fewer people had any resistance to it, at all. Now, a number of people do have some immunity, and may of the vulnerable are already dead.

Which means that, in this so-called second wave COVID19 is of no greater an issue than a moderately bad flu season.

If I were to recommend actions. I would recommend that we stop testing – unless someone is admitted to hospital and is seriously ill. Mass testing is simply causing mass panic and achieves absolutely nothing. At great cost. We should also just get on with our lives as before. We should just vaccinate those at greatest risk of dying, the elderly and vulnerable, and put this rather embarrassing episode of mad banner waving behind us.

Hopefully, in time, we will learn something. Which is that we should not, ever, run about panicking, following the madly waved banners… ever again. However, I suspect that we will. This pandemic is going to be a model for all mass panicking stupidity in the future. Because to do otherwise, would be to admit that we made a pig’s ear of it this time. Far too many powerful reputations at stake to allow that.

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16   Onvacation   2021 Jan 17, 7:31am  

ThreeBays says
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm.


"Resource not available"

Why do you suppose that is?
17   Patrick   2021 Jan 17, 10:46am  

ThreeBays says
Is there any way to search comments by user?


No, but I should implement that
18   Onvacation   2021 Jan 17, 10:57am  

ThreeBays says

Fixed the link above.

Still broke. Try this one:
https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku

As you can see if you LOOK at the CDC's data 154 kids less than 18 years old have died WITH covid since this "pandemic" has started. An additional 1,235 youth between 18 and 29 have died WITH this plague. The number of dead WITH the Wuhan does not spike until after you look at the victims over 65.

Why do you really think the lockdowns are worth it?

If you are an old fat fuck you're gonna die. Let the healthy youth live. We're killing them.
19   mell   2021 Jan 17, 12:49pm  

ThreeBays says
mell says
So keep peddling the great idea to wreck the economy on top of getting roughly the inevitable same infection curve/deaths and percentages.


Lockdowns clearly bent the curve, there's correlations everywhere to show that and had there not been an impact from lockdowns then there wouldn't be 2nd or 3rd waves.

Recent example in UK.


What you're seeing are natural peaks in first and 2nd waves as summer goes and winter comes as people hang out indoors during the cold season which increases infections. The effect of lockdowns are marginal, anything "gained' from people strictly obeying is lost by people passing it on within households (80%-90% of transmissions) and small indoor gatherings with friends as they have nowhere to go outdoors.
20   just_passing_through   2021 Jan 17, 12:52pm  

1918 flu had multiple waves over 3 years and no lock-downs.
21   mell   2021 Jan 17, 12:54pm  

just_passing_through says
1918 flu had multiple waves over 3 years and no lock-downs.


Right and one (there are others) big reason the flu is usually stronger in the winter is because people are mostly inside.
22   just_passing_through   2021 Jan 17, 12:55pm  

Hey, I gots an idear!

Maybe we can turn the entire country into a positive pressure system with laminar flow!

Side note along the same lines:

Maybe we can fix global warming by air conditioning the outside of our homes!

Do we control dogs or do dogs actually control us and make us think we are controlling them?

Wouldn't it be nice if all people spoke in triple negatives?
23   Shaman   2021 Jan 17, 12:58pm  

ThreeBays says
Lockdowns clearly bent the curve, there's correlations everywhere to show that and had there not been an impact from lockdowns then there wouldn't be 2nd or 3rd waves.


True, but it never prevented Covid deaths only postponed them. We had time thanks to lockdown 1 to figure out the virus and how to treat it. However the medical establishment refused to authorize ANY treatment besides ventilators which had a 90% kill rate. Despite knowing of more than a handful of regularly prescribed drugs that did much to prevent Covid death and help patients recover. This is either sheer and utter stupidity by the people who we generally regard as highly intelligent, or the goal all along was to maximize Covid deaths to instill fear and ensure a demand for vaccines. Which do you think is more likely?
24   MisdemeanorRebel   2021 Jan 17, 1:19pm  

And especially fought against establishing a cheap and effective treatment via HCQ+zinc+antibiotics, even though the science was against them and the need was dire.

There was a huge well funded Media campaign to besmirch HCQ, never forget it.
25   Onvacation   2021 Jan 17, 1:28pm  

just_passing_through says
Do we control dogs or do dogs actually control us and make us think we are controlling them?

If you don't know you shouldn't have a dog.
26   mell   2021 Jan 17, 2:11pm  

Out of the 25MM active cases worldwide 99.6% are now mild vs 0.4% serious. As it spreads and more cases haven been tested / discovered and adapted strains emerged, the severity dropped to a number similar of cold and flu-like illnesses. The only difference is the amount of immunity which is catching up, and once it's there yearly infections will also be no more different than the cold and flu, of course serious mutations are - while extremely rare - always possible like with the flu. It's pretty much back to normal already, yet many people still have have to wear face diapers and are on lockdown.
27   mell   2021 Jan 17, 2:13pm  

ThreeBays says
Shaman says
True, but it never prevented Covid deaths only postponed them. We had time thanks to lockdown 1 to figure out the virus and how to treat it. However the medical establishment refused to authorize ANY treatment besides ventilators which had a 90% kill rate. Despite knowing of more than a handful of regularly prescribed drugs that did much to prevent Covid death and help patients recover. This is either sheer and utter stupidity by the people who we generally regard as highly intelligent, or the goal all along was to maximize Covid deaths to instill fear and ensure a demand for vaccines. Which do you think is more likely?


Or maybe you're just believing conspiracies generated by completely distrustable sources over science. I'll put my money on that any day.


https://patrick.net/post/1337674/2021-01-17-stanford-study-questions-benefits-of-lockdowns-and-stay-at-home-orders

No benefits.
28   Onvacation   2021 Jan 17, 2:25pm  

Young healthy "essential workers" are still not dropping dead from covid the Wuhan flu. We all shop or know somebody that shops so we are all exposed to whatever viruses are out there anyway.

End the two week lockdown and mask mandate.
29   mell   2021 Jan 17, 2:28pm  

ThreeBays says
mell says
https://patrick.net/post/1337674/2021-01-17-stanford-study-questions-benefits-of-lockdowns-and-stay-at-home-orders

No benefits.


Bendavid & Ioannidis have no credibility as far as Covid studies.


Why? Who decides credibility? Ioannidis is actually very much respected around the world, esp. Europe. Did ap, cnn or google tell your that?
30   Onvacation   2021 Jan 17, 3:16pm  

ThreeBays says
empirical data over the 9 months

SO how many people under 50 do you think died WITH covid in the last nine months?

We have effective treatments for the Wuhan virus. We don't need any experimental biological agents injected in our arms. Stop this kabuki theatre of masks and lockdowns.

This is America. It was bad enough when we lost the fourth and more of the second amendment RIGHTS over the wars on drugs and terror but now they have stripped us of our first amendment right over an invisible enemy.
31   Robert Sproul   2021 Jan 17, 3:19pm  

ThreeBays says
Both of us dislike lockdowns; the difference is choosing to be honest or dishonest about the facts.

9 months into the pandemic 66% of adults reported feeling lonely, a stunning new record.
Suicide hotlines report an increase in calls of up to 600%.
Dramatic increases in alcohol abuse and drug addiction and relapse back into addiction by former users.
Estimates say that for each 1% increase in unemployment you will get 37,000 additional deaths per year. Fake numbers aside a conservative guess of a 10% increase in unemployment, that’s hundreds of thousands.
10s of thousands of bankruptcies.
Derailed school and career plans. The devastation goes on and on.
There is no way that this lockdown was worth it past two weeks to “Flatten the Curve”.
32   GlocknLoad   2021 Jan 17, 3:20pm  

WookieMan says
That's who we're trying to save and shutting down our economy for. People that have lived a completely full life and beyond.

Yep, criminal in my opinion. We are a nation where no one or group is more important than another. WTF?

These old people are stealing the younger generation's life experiences and more.
33   GlocknLoad   2021 Jan 17, 3:24pm  

Patrick says
Relatives are worried that this thing might knock him off, but so far, no.

One tough S.O.B.
34   GlocknLoad   2021 Jan 17, 3:25pm  

theoakman says
Seems like they were off by 1.8 million.

Probably even more since all they do is lie.
35   GlocknLoad   2021 Jan 17, 3:31pm  

mell says
ThreeBays says
And dragons & fairies are real. Keep going with the fiction.

Hey what happened to Sweden, I thought they were right and were going to have herd immunity by middle of 2020. It must be the US Democrats that sabotaged Sweden.


What are you talking about? Sweden is doing better than the US with no lockdowns or masks. Nobody said that doing nothing will get lesser people sick. But the percent of infections and deaths are roughly the same everywhere, with lesser deaths in countries that have been using hcq and ivermectin. So keep peddling the great idea to wreck the economy on top of getting roughly the inevitable same infection curve/deaths and percentages. If you add drug abuse and suicide partially fueled by economic and social despair the US is doing much worse. Keep defending the demonrat murderers who withheld Ivermectin and HCQ purely for political (and financial) reasons! Ivermectin works.

I have a feeling ThreeBays is a government employee, a retiree or a person who is able to work from home. These are the 3 categories of people who are not effected by lockdowns. They have nothing to lose by the economy being held down. He may even be a teacher. Why is it that teachers do not want to go back to the classroom but they still want to get P.A.I.D.?
36   GlocknLoad   2021 Jan 17, 3:35pm  

ThreeBays says
mell says
So keep peddling the great idea to wreck the economy on top of getting roughly the inevitable same infection curve/deaths and percentages.


Lockdowns clearly bent the curve, there's correlations everywhere to show that and had there not been an impact from lockdowns then there wouldn't be 2nd or 3rd waves.

Recent example in UK.


Both of us dislike lockdowns; the difference is choosing to be honest or dishonest about the facts.

No lockdowns or mask mandates in Florida. Don't they have the highest percentage of old people? Why is Florida doing so much better than NY and CA?
37   Robert Sproul   2021 Jan 17, 3:36pm  

GlocknLoad says
Why is Florida doing so much better than NY and CA?

Lock downs kill.
38   mell   2021 Jan 17, 4:14pm  

ThreeBays says
400,000+ recorded deaths.


Stanford Medicine Seroprevalence Study of Dialysis Patients Shows Fewer than One in 10 Adults Has Antibodies to COVID-19 Indicating Herd Immunity is Far Off


https://www.darkdaily.com/stanford-study-finds-fewer-than-one-in-10-adults-have-covid-19-antibodies/

Basically we're nowhere near peak infection, hospital overload, and deaths that would happen if the virus was allowed to spread freely.


Dialisys patients, surely you must be jesting! "Perfect" group representing the avg. person, people who hardly go anywhere and who can croak at contact with any moderate to severe virus. I expect them to have low serum prevalence. Most studies around the world with a real (averaged) focus group done as early as spring 2020 arrived at anywhere from 20%-40%
39   Robert Sproul   2021 Jan 17, 4:17pm  

Headline on month 13 from the goof-balls at Vox:
"Still going to the grocery store? With new virus variants spreading, it’s probably time to stop"
https://www.vox.com/22220301/covid-spread-new-strain-variants-safe-grocery-store-n95-masks-vaccine
If you want to eat supplicate and tithe to Lord Bezos.
40   FarmersWon   2021 Jan 17, 4:31pm  

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/03/why-india-farmers-are-protesting-three-farm-reform-bills.html

Millions of Indian farmers are sitting close to each other and eating together for months now.
There is no corona spread and everyone in India feels that this was fake crisis to pass "farmer bills" while people are quarantined.

See the similarities in US to get rid of Orange man?
41   theoakman   2021 Jan 17, 4:33pm  

Please explain how North Dakota and South Dakota managed to drop their cases down to near summer baseline levels without lockdown.
42   mell   2021 Jan 17, 4:42pm  

ThreeBays says
mell says
Dialisys patients, surely you must be jesting! "Perfect" group representing the avg. person, people who hardly go anywhere and who can croak at contact with any moderate to severe virus. I expect them to have low serum prevalence. Most studies around the world with a real (averaged) focus group done as early as spring 2020 arrived at anywhere from 20%-40%


Other recent studies in the US and state test dashboards are similar.

You have the answer... the early tests that you loved to reference with anywhere near 20-40% were wrong.

I'm pretty sure that for most of us, we know relatively few people that were infected.


The US "studies" you mention are politically motivated, you think the current US "regime" has more credibility that the studies around the world, esp. in Europe? They were never retracted so they aren't wrong, so you should ask why suddenly Dialisys patients are used to come up with low seroprevalence. You don't know people who are sick because the majority of infections are asymptomatic mistaken for something else. I know a handful of people who tested positive and had no symptoms and a handful who got sick. The real infection rate is probably at least 3-4x of those who tested positive.
43   Onvacation   2021 Jan 17, 4:50pm  

ThreeBays says
Basically we're nowhere near peak infection, hospital overload, and deaths that would happen if the virus was allowed to spread freely.

SO, we have been "spiking" in "cases" for months and only 3% of population (>4M) have immunity? So, having a case doesn't give you immunity, lockdowns and masking definitely don't give you immunity, and the experimental biological agent doesn't give you immunity; what does? Are we to lock-down and mask for the rest of our lives as the asymptomatic Wuhan flu, or the next variant or strain, spreads over and over through our civilization, killing the sick and old?

Wuhan and other viruses are the hyenas of humanity. They strike the sick and frail. We, as a herd, can try to prevent the hyenas from taking the sick and frail but sacrificing the strong and healthy to do so is not a good idea. Unfortunately, all wars, even a war against an invisible enemy, take the most from the young and healthy.

Say NO to getting an experimental biological agent injected into your arm.
44   mell   2021 Jan 17, 5:03pm  

ThreeBays says
Is this also a false study?

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2773576

It's funny how everybody is in on these conspiraci s and the orange prophet is the one to be believed.


It's one study of many. You do know that t cell immunity is a far better protection than mere antibodies? T cell immunity is likely responsible for a lot of observed immunity even when antibodies aren't detected. Of course both are ideal. We're not focusing on the orange man here, but on science and science says antibody focused immune response is inferior to a healthy T cell response. Which means the currently vaccines may have limited protection and rapid expiration. Who do you think benefits from testing overpriced vaccines on unsuspecting guinea pigs?

https://news.berkeley.edu/2020/09/09/for-an-effective-covid-vaccine-look-beyond-antibodies-to-t-cells/
45   Robert Sproul   2021 Jan 17, 6:08pm  

ThreeBays says
Is this also a false study?


Here are some studies.
As far back as July a study in The Lancet indicated that government lockdowns were ineffective.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(20)30208-X/fulltexthttps://

A Frontiers in Public Health paper found neither lockdowns nor lockdown stringency were correlated with lower death rates.
www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.604339/full#SM6

Research from Tel Aviv University said that strict lockdowns may not save lives.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.11.20128520v1
But they certainly cause death among myriad other harms.

An article in Bloomberg by data journalist Elaine He said COVID mortality did not appear to be associated with lockdown stringency.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-opinion-coronavirus-europe-lockdown-excess-deaths-recession/

This lockdown regime is not “peer reviewed science" and has never been about public safety.
46   Onvacation   2021 Jan 18, 12:54am  

ThreeBays says
Meh, studies that fail to show

Don't let the facts get in the way of your truth.
47   Robert Sproul   2021 Jan 18, 3:56pm  

Onvacation says
ThreeBays says
Meh, studies that fail to show

Don't let the facts get in the way of your truth.


A brand new paper from scientists from Duke, Harvard, and Johns Hopkins.

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28304/w28304.pdf

TL;DR: COVID Lockdowns Will Result In 1 Million Excess Deaths Over Next 15 Years

"Between  late  March-early April, most U.S. states imposed stay-at-home orders and lockdowns, resulting in widespread shut down of business. Unemployment rate rose from 3.8% in February 2020 to 14.7% in April 2020 with 23.1 million unemployed Americans.  Despite a decline to 6.7% in November 2020,the average unemployment rate over the year is comparable with the 10% unemployment rate at  the peak of the 2007-2009 Great Recession and it is near the post-World War II historical maximum reached in the early 1980s (10.8%). Importantly, COVID-19 related job losses disproportionately affect women, particularly of Hispanic heritage; African Americans; foreign born individuals; less educated adults and individuals age 16-24.  In fact, the unemployment rate underestimates the extent of the economic contraction as many potential workers have abandoned the workforce (especially women)."

"The long-term effects of the COVID-19 related unemployment surge on the US mortality rate have not been characterized in the literature. Thus, as a last step, we compute an estimate of  the excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 unemployment shock.   This corresponds to the difference between the number of deaths predicted by the model with and without the unemployment shock observed in 2020. For the overall population, the increase in the death rate following the COVID-19 pandemic implies a staggering 0.89 and 1.37 million excess deaths over the next 15 and 20 years, respectively."
48   Patrick   2021 Jan 18, 4:09pm  

ThreeBays says
There's still no exact known explanation as to why Japan, an aging, highly dense country, that didn't have much social distancing measures, had so few cases.


Bear with me for a moment.

What if Japan is one of the few countries telling the truth with their statistics, along with some 3rd world countries?

Maybe most of the deaths are simply a lie. Do we have a list of names of the dead? Did you see anyone get sick?

The fact that I still do not personally know even one single person who got sick from this supposed virus, much less any who died, makes me question everything.

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