patrick.net

I finally found a person I know who caught the Wuhan virus.

She’s in San Francisco, from Peru, came on a tourist visa, stayed for longer, (broke immigration laws) found a sucker to marry her, divorced.

So she said while sick she didn’t realize it at first (95%+ cases are mild).
Presently she says she has a belly ache and a headache.

I said that she might at least lose some weight from the nausea.
“I hope I don’t lose my life!”

This is the typical drama seeking type of thing females like to say.

She said that “this virus is real” which I knew, and that “people is ignorant”.
I mentioned that in Austria they wore masks from the beginning and they have no pandemic.
This slightly annoyed her.

She’s likely not happy with guys like Elon Musk who say let’s get back to work.

Hand wringing is second nature to some people.

does this mean that we all aren't going to die a hideous death from coronavirus?

clambo says

She said that “this virus is real”

Most viruses are real but not necessarily deadly.......lolol

Way too early to draw any conclusions. Hope for the best. I note fox news just extended their work from home order until June 15 while pushing the country to reopen...what a bunch of pussies.

“A Friday memo from Fox Corp chief operating officer John Nallen extended the company’s work from home directive through June 15. On that date, at the earliest, Fox Corp properties like Fox News will begin a gradual reopening of offices. The date could very well be delayed further.”

Sure looks like the epidemic is ending in England:



https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-death-data-in-england-update-11th-may/

Patrick says

Sure looks like the epidemic is ending in England:



https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-death-data-in-england-update-11th-may/

Looks like every real model is following the same path.

Open the damn economy Patrick!

rdm says

Way too early to draw any conclusions.

Not really though. This is a flash in the pan virus. It kills and it kills how it knows how to, and quickly. Something like 98% of society wouldn't have even noticed this virus outside of shut downs or a family members death 2 years from now. 7B people on this planet and there's under 300k worldwide deaths.... 0.004% of the world has died. Holy fuck we're doomed.

This is a joke at this point, people are purely pushing propaganda. There are various datasets that even point to shut down having minimal if any true effect outside of densely populated locations. Cities/municipalities under 500k could have stayed open and nothing would have been different. Somehow India and China with 1B+ people have less deaths. Makes one go hmmm?

:
I'm just glad that if and when the data says we can open up more and faster, we can also blame lefty for wanting to go slower,...you know becasue their damn "facts and reality" based ideology.

I wonder if there is a way we could have had more and better data sooner. Oh yeah, it's Obama's fault.

marcus says

becasue their damn "facts and reality"

Yeah!

It's starting to get hotter. Soon the narrative will quickly shift back to climate change doom. Corona will be revived just in time for the elections.

Onvacation says

It's starting to get hotter. Soon the narrative will quickly shift back to climate change doom. Corona will be revived just in time for the elections.

CV-19 is good for climate change though. It kills people. Less shit to emit if that's your ideology.

marcus says

I'm just glad that if and when the data says we can open up more and faster, we can also blame lefty for wanting to go slower,...you know becasue their damn "facts and reality" based ideology.

What facts and data? It's a new virus. Just examine the data and facts in your own locale that are all new. Statistically this is a huge flop. Deaths could have been prevented by just shutting down old people. Instead the response was to shut down everyone, even though the elderly still went out and did their grocery shopping in probably the 2nd or 3rd worst place they could possible be.. It has failed miserably.

A lot easier to shut down 20-25% of the population that is mostly useless anyway. This was a massive fuck up by everyone. Mayors, governors, POTUS, congress, CDC, WHO, Republican, Democrat, etc. There's really no disputing that.

People should be shot in the face for the fucking response.

rdm says

Way too early to draw any conclusions. Hope for the best. I note fox news just extended their work from home order until June 15 while pushing the country to reopen...what a bunch of pussies.

Maybe businesses in Manhattan in the middle of the nation's largest hotspot should have stricter lockdown rules than Georgia that doesn't have a fraction of the infected or dead?

WookieMan says

Deaths could have been prevented by just shutting down old people. Instead the response was to shut down everyone, even though the elderly still went out

Their real motive was not to save any lives.

Their motive was only to destroy the economy.

And everyone knows why.

I'm trying to learn more about this COVID 19 such as at https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

So how long does the virus live in someone who does not show symptoms (ie., asymptomatic) and can be then transmitted to someone with a weakened immune system ?

I am trying to understand if the virus can die off during the summer such as be starved of not having any available human host.

All viruses are like sharks, they have to keep moving or die.

If you get the disease a little because you were infected with just a few viruses, your body fights it off and you presumably get immunity, as with every other virus.

If you get the disease a lot, then you die if you're elderly or have severe health issues, otherwise, you recover and you presumably get immunity, as with every other virus.

The only way a virus can keep going a long time is to infect a few people at a time, and to keep moving to new people who haven't been infected yet.

And that's exactly what we are doing with this lockdown, which keeps the virus infecting a few people at a time, so that it can go on forever.

Patrick says

And that's exactly what we are doing with this lockdown, which keeps the virus infecting a few people at a time, so that it can go on forever.

An interesting counterpoint that Bret and Heather make is we don't want the Wuhan Enigma Virus "exploring design space on a naive human population". If we get another seasonal flu, it becomes a cost that all future generations MUST bear. Not saying they're right, but they certainly have an interesting take as evolutionary biologists.
See 9:03 in video.
www.youtube.com/embed/koKBnUEgXuM?t=542

All viruses "experiment" with new forms of infection all the time.

OccasionalCortex says

HEYYOU says

I'm waiting 2-3 weeks from now to see increased COVID-19 attacks.

Keep waiting.

Here we are just over a week later. And the results are fantastic.

Still waiting on that second wave....

joshuatrio says

all the lefties

All ?

I guess the only thing better than bringing the economy back is simultaneously somehow making it a victory for your team.

I know the Trump Cultists around here think I'm a leftie. I'm been very strongly hoping that there is absolutely zero second wave in Geogia and Texas. It's not what I think is going to happen, but even if it's just a small bounce, that would be awesome.

joshuatrio says

Here's the latest from the Georgia Department of Public Health website.

How many weeks in to May do you reckon your graph goes ? (hint: the answer is clear)

ad says

I am trying to understand if the virus can die off during the summer such as be starved of not having any available human host.

I'd guess UV kills it, and the warmer temperature, the faster it is killed. So sunny, warm weather should bring infections down naturally, like with all cold viruses/flu's...

Y'all are forgetting that ORANGE MAN BAD NO MATTER WHAT HE DOES. CLOSES BORDER WITH CHINA - RACIST! DOES NOT CLOSE BORDER - WANTS WOMYN AND MINORITIES TO DIE!

rd6B says

I'd guess UV kills it, and the warmer temperature, the faster it is killed. So sunny, warm weather should bring infections down naturally, like with all cold viruses/flu's...

Brazil.

The left Democrats who sit around m at work seem convinced (self?) of four things;
1. The second wave of COVID will be much more horrendous,
2. It is Trumps fault and everyone knows this,
3. The economy is doomed and again. It is Trumps fault and everyone knows this,
4. As a consequence, Trump is toast and will be swept away in the resulting blue tsunami.
Personally, I find #1 and 2 highly unlikely, #3 in part possible in that there will be powerful ramifications of shutting down the entire world economy; but, I doubt It is Trumps fault and, no, everyone does not know this. #4 seems like wishful thinking given the Democratic presidential performance so far (and on point, four years before).
BTW SF believes similar. https://www.sfchronicle.com/opinion/letterstoeditor/article/Letters-to-the-Editor-Bewildered-by-Georgia-s-15216646.php?cmpid=gsa-sfgate-result

covid_shmovid says

Brazil.

Texas/CA vs. New York.

rd6B says

covid_shmovid says

Brazil.

Texas/CA vs. New York.

Right. But Brazil.

covid_shmovid says

Right. But Brazil.

One giant wet market of people living on top of each other?

socal2 says

covid_shmovid says

Right. But Brazil.

One giant wet market of people living on top of each other?

Right. But it's hot, humid and drenched in UV. Which are supposedly the factors suppressing cold-like infections naturally. Somehow they suppress jack shit there. Which makes me think that low density, car-dependent lifestyle have more to do with CA/TX low rates of infection than warm weather and UV light.

covid_shmovid says

Which makes me think that low density, car-dependent lifestyle have more to do with CA/TX low rates of infection than warm weather and UV light.

Possible as well.

covid_shmovid says

socal2 says

covid_shmovid says

Right. But Brazil.

One giant wet market of people living on top of each other?

Right. But it's hot, humid and drenched in UV. Which are supposedly the factors suppressing cold-like infections naturally. Somehow they suppress jack shit there. Which makes me think that low density, car-dependent lifestyle have more to do with CA/TX low rates of infection than warm weather and UV light.

It's not that large of an outbreak in Brazil, cases and deaths per 1MM capita still massively trailing the US. They have extremely dense areas as well in the big cities.

covid_shmovid says

Right. But it's hot, humid and drenched in UV. Which are supposedly the factors suppressing cold-like infections naturally. Somehow they suppress jack shit there

I've been wrestling with this as well. Yet it does follow the same pattern of "cold" coronaviruses and influenza. Both experience seasonality in temperate zones and are year round in tropical regions. Vitamin D is a third factor that could play into this; it would also explain higher rates of COVID-19 in African Americans.

Seasonal risk areas for influenza: November–April (blue), April–November (red), and year-round (yellow).

One thing I know for fucking SURE!
Democrats have tipped their hands, revealing themselves for the petty tyrants that they are. Across the United States, Democrat governors, mayors, and even public health officials are declaring themselves kings and queens for life and oppressing the FUCK out of their citizens! They’re using the police, park rangers, lifeguards, health inspectors, and even CPS to enforce their unconstitutional dictates on a public that is suffering mightily. But not from COVID, the public is suffering from their autocratic rule!

And people are noticing.
At the end of this, you’ll have a hard time getting elected as a dog catcher if you’re running on a a Democrat ticket.

EBGuy says

Not saying they're right, but they certainly have an interesting take as evolutionary biologists.

Yes, thanks for the video. Haven't had time to finish it yet, but I like another point they make which is that it doesn't have to be a choice for staying totally locked down versus totally opening up.

Just becasue the mainstream seems to be behind a view doesn't make it wrong any more than Trumps gut is always wrong.

marcus says

I like another point they make which is that it doesn't have to be a choice for staying totally locked down versus totally opening up

Sure. We can open up schools and have half the kids come in on Monday and Wednesday and the other half can go on Tuesday and Thursday. And they gotta wear masks. The rest of the time they can learn online.

Some people think this scheme is practical.

Onvacation says

marcus says

I like another point they make which is that it doesn't have to be a choice for staying totally locked down versus totally opening up

Sure. We can open up schools and have half the kids come in on Monday and Wednesday and the other half can go on Tuesday and Thursday. And they gotta wear masks. The rest of the time they can learn online.

Some people think this scheme is practical.

Or they just go to school. Statistically speaking teachers and students are at no risk of death and most won't even get sick with symptoms. This online shit ain't gonna work long term unless you have one stay at home parent in the household to manage it. In communities that are less well off, the results are going to be exponentially worse than they already are. Crime will spike. It will be a disaster. Truancy was already a huge issue in bad areas and now a family without a computer (for the kids) is going to work online from home? Hell's no.

We really need to just open back up. Unfortunately we're basically at summer break now in many districts. I predict Chicago will be a blood bath this summer, even with our phased opening.

ThreeBays says

joshuatrio says

Here we are just over a week later. And the results are fantastic.

Still waiting on that second wave....

And here it is.

LOL! A bump of an extra 100 cases per day for a week then drops like a CLIFF is a second wave?

That's likely due to additional testing, which Georgia went from being one of the worst states to 20th in the nation (what I heard on the radio).

ThreeBays says

Simple weighting based on recent lag shows Georgia could already have more daily cases than it's prior peak.

Deaths are all that matters. An increasing metric due to increased testing has no bearing on anything until this is all over to get a better idea of infection to death rate. Especially considering a large minority is asymptomatic. Deaths are clearly plummeting. It's also more accurate as the people that die generally have been tested prior to dying. So the 14 day "grace" period is not as inaccurate as cases.

This will bounce down into regular flu status even without a vaccine. This is a flash in the pan. We're all not going to die.

Narrative and second wave shot. JOKE.

ThreeBays says

Data in the last couple of weeks is still being filled in. Simple weighting based on recent lag shows Georgia could already have more daily cases than it's prior peak.

If this is just due to more testing that would be good news.

And with all that extra testing and thousands of people rioting, there goes your crisis.

ThreeBays says

joshuatrio says

LOL! A bump of an extra 100 cases per day for a week then drops like a CLIFF is a second wave?

Data in the last couple of weeks is still being filled in. Simple weighting based on recent lag shows Georgia could already have more daily cases than it's prior peak.

If this is just due to more testing that would be good news.

All I'm hearing is crickets.