patrick.net

ThreeBays says

Actual death rate is about 0.1% of those infected.

Any raw data set shows 1 to 4%. For example, in San Diego, 500 cases 7 deaths. Other places and age groups are much higher.

For some perspective, per CDC:
Heart Disease in the United States:
* Heart disease is the leading cause of death for men, women, and people of most racial and ethnic groups in the United States.1
* One person dies every 37 seconds in the United States from cardiovascular disease.1
* About 647,000 Americans die from heart disease each year—that’s 1 in every 4 deaths.2,3
* Heart disease costs the United States about $219 billion each year from 2014 to 2015.3 This includes the cost of health care services, medicines, and lost productivity due to death.

And behind door number three, the University of Washington model which predicts a mid April peak.
With those inputs, the computer models project a total of 81,114 deaths in the U.S. over the next four months. Most of those deaths are expected to occur during April, peaking at more than 2,300 deaths per day. That rate is projected to drop below 10 deaths per day sometime between May 31 and June 6.

Have we gone from under-action to over-reaction? It may be so. This is a typical American scenario (see 9-11 and all the shit that flowed out of it). The first part, the under-action is quite clear; a disgraceful lack of foresight and preparation along with the continuing general level of gross incompetence that is being demonstrated every day on the federal level, whether we now are over reacting remains to be seen.

Have we gone from under-action to over-reaction?

There it is. Just like I predicted in an earlier thread, the left's narrative will move from "Trump did not do enough" to "Trump Over-Reacted." This new spin will really take off when COVID-19 turns out to be far less severe than than the constant drum beat of the left had predicted.

There is no disgraceful lack of foresight.

China lied for 3 months, refused help, refused to cooperate with WHO, and is still giving False Numbers. Chinese dissidents are putting the death toll in Hubei alone in the tens of thousands and are reporting hudnreds of funeral services daily for their already cremated weeks ago relatives now that the Chicoms are re-allowing in-region travel.

While the Chinese lied, thousands of Wuhan dwellers came and went from Hong Kong, Europe, and North America during the Lunar New Year Holiday, bringing the disease with them while borders were wide open and nobody expected anything more than a regional outbreak. Many were asymptomatic. Some H-1B gave it to a co-worker who only suffered a minor case or was asymptomatic herself, and she brought it to her mom in a Washington State or New Jersey nursing home... and then the nurses got it...

This also explains why Iran of all places, was one of the earliest and hardest hit, since they have huge trade ties with China.

BTW, speaking of liars, Russia is only claiming 9 deaths. Yes, despite the huge land border and high volume of trade between Russia and China.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/03/30/coronavirus-in-russia-the-latest-news-march-29-a69117

That, or Vodka is even more efficacious than Chloroquine.

HeadSet says

There it is. Just like I predicted in an earlier thread, the left's narrative will move from "Trump did not do enough" to "Trump Over-Reacted." This new spin will really take off when COVID-19 turns out to be far less severe than than the constant drum beat of the left had predicted.

Yup.

100% certainty Trump will be blamed and vilified no matter what he does.

This is proof of the moral bankruptcy of the left/media/globalists, still licking their wounds and stewing in criminally insane levels of hatred because the people rightly rejected Hillary, violating DIRECT ORDERS from the media to vote for her.

www.youtube.com/embed/XScvWPx-DDY

HeadSet says

There it is. Just like I predicted in an earlier thread, the left's narrative will move from "Trump did not do enough" to "Trump Over-Reacted."

Whatever, you said it I didnt, seeing everything through a lense of Trump is a sad state to be in, left or right.

NoCoupForYou says

There is no disgraceful lack of foresight

One can blame the Chinese, they certainly were disingenuous, that is their normal modus operandi, you cant believe anything they say. But the fact of the matter is we should have intelligence gathering in the federal gov. that told the power people in the federal Gov. that there was a huge risk of a pandemic brewing in China. In fact reports state that is exactly what the intelligence agencies reported. Was that intelligence acted on in a timely manner? No.

JimSpatzenfeld says

If we had not killed the economy, and kept going as usual, the estimate was 1-2 Million deaths.

lol.......estimated.

rdm says

But the fact of the matter is we should have intelligence gathering in the federal gov. that told the power people in the federal Gov. that there was a huge risk of a pandemic brewing in China. In fact reports state that is exactly what the intelligence agencies reported. Was that intelligence acted on in a timely manner? No.

I thought that is why we had the WHO to track and warn about this type of stuff?

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostakovitch says

I find it entertaining to shoot people from the sky and, hey, I paid for the helicopter and the gun and less than 1% of Americans will die even if I spent 17 hours a day shooting and only break to shit, shave and shower and rest each day.

What's the harm?

BLOW! ME!

www.youtube.com/embed/MDU97qv9AC8
Is this you on the M60?

If you buy the notion that Covid-19 is a lab generated Frankenstein, the initial Chinese reaction could be interpreted as a typical authoritarian rage that they could suffer disgrace, as well as exposure for their bioweapons research, and so they tried to put the genie back in the bottle right away before things got out. They insist that it is American Military, which could be accurate, since some interpreters believe Covid-19 has been derived from various research samples sourced from the distribution channels of Fort Dietrich, some parts purchased from legitimate research sources, some purloined.

I just wonder if the Chinese were also suffering an authoritarian rage reaction because they were exploited as useful idiots, and the release of the virus from Wuhan was in fact planned as a spy op specifically for the purpose of engendering the Pandemic Panic reaction for the controlled demolition of our economy, rights and freedoms in the West, and, of course, to defeat OrangeManBad. The splicing was pretty tight between the raised voices of Coronavirus and the failure of the faked impeachment hearings. Only the SpookPlex can know for sure.

Obviously, the Chinese have suffered because of the negative attention that their supply chain dominance and its origins have gotten.

If you believe it was bats in caves and animal vectors, then it is a slightly more comfortable world.

Ceffer says

The splicing was pretty tight between the raised voices of Coronavirus and the failure of the faked impeachment hearings.

Summer is coming. Soon the global warmers climate changers will be out in force.

The SpookPlex - I love that one!
TPTB also moved loads of their money out of the market in prep for this event. It was time to reap profits, engineer the correction, and have cash on hand to buy low - again.

Onvacation says

Ceffer says

The splicing was pretty tight between the raised voices of Coronavirus and the failure of the faked impeachment hearings.

Summer is coming. Soon the global warmers climate changers will be out in force.

Global warmists can now say "See how much staying inside did for pollution reduction? It's clear -- humans have to stay home ALWAYS. It's what's right for the planet!"

They were on the right track - remove the human infestation. Earth is only meant to be occupied by a few caretaker humans. The rest must go.
What, me? I'm a caretaker, fool! Isn't that obvious?!?!

JimSpatzenfeld says

100,000 to 200,000 is the estimate WITH an imploded economy.
If we had not killed the economy, and kept going as usual, the estimate was 1-2 Million deaths.
So killing the economy is estimated to save between 900,000 to 1,800,000 lives.
Might have been worth it.

Heraclitusstudent says

Because... the 100,000 figure ASSUMES actions that will implode the economy.
Without these measures, 70% of the population get the disease, you are talking 2 millions dead, at least.
Maybe much more considering the healthcare system would be destroyed.

Social-distancing and shutting down the economy were supposed to "flatten the curve," not reducing the total number of infections/exposures. Even Fauci and Birx understand that a contagious disease with natural R0=3 can not be stopped until the herd immunity reaches 66% - 70%! The only way anyone can get immunity is having been exposed to the virus (and 99.9+ % having survived, and the remaining <0.1% would die; that's where the "up to 200k" number comes from). Intensive intervention only available at hospitals (ventilation and intubation) only save less than about 10% of the severe cases that get those treatments; i.e. if the illness gets to that stage, 90+% patients needing such intensive care would die anyway even when there is no shortage of hospital beds. So, in other words, if 2 million people had been saved by hospital intensive care, 20 million would have died!

The current official estimate is that up to 200,000 people will die; that means, at most hospital would be able to save 20,000 patients (could be as few as half that or much less). That has to be offset by the 100,000 patients that die every year due to contagious diseases that they pick up from hospitals, according to CDC numbers!

In fact, now that the disease is spreading at R0>2 despite 90+% social interactions have been stopped, it's quite obvious that hospitals are the primary venue of disease transmission!

The idiots who worship hospitals (which are good at fixing mechanical trama / injury, but are really quite ineffective against contagious viral diseases because the way they are set up and not having any antibiotic effective against the virus) is about as stupid as the Iranian muslims who believed that kissing the holy rock / temple-wall in Qum would cure the same disease for them! Blind faith in the face of existing facts proving contrary to the faith!

What should have been shut down was hospitals / medical facilities that served more than 10 patients in any 24hr period; at least stopping them from taking new patients. Not the rest of the economy!

BTW, the devastation of the original "Flu," which has become a medical term only since the 1918-1919 "Spanish Flu," was also due to massive medical malpractice/stupidity/blind-faith: the doctors were handing out the magic pill Asprin like candies because the allied powers took German firm Bayer's patent on Asprin as war spoils at the end of WWI. Asprin reduces fever, which is the body's natural response for fighting off virus. Those who were prescribed Asprin during the 1918-1919 flu were dying at 30x the rate as those who were given traditional hydrotherapy (warm water treatment, usually either warm bath or warm wet towels wrapped around the chest, because they didn't have electric heating pads back then).

Reality says

Social-distancing and shutting down the economy were supposed to "flatten the curve," not reducing the total number of infections/exposures.

BS You flatten it until a vaccine.
If your assumption is 70% of people will get it anyway, then the toll will be close to 2 millions regardless of everything.

I doubt this curve will flatten by 9000 people (the 0.0003 cited above). The steepness of our death rate and the lack of flattening are far worse than China at this point, three weeks past the 20-death mark.



504 Gateway Time-out

504 Gateway Time-out

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nginx/1.6.2

Heraclitusstudent says

Reality says

Social-distancing and shutting down the economy were supposed to "flatten the curve," not reducing the total number of infections/exposures.

BS You flatten it until a vaccine.
If your assumption is 70% of people will get it anyway, then the toll will be close to 2 millions regardless of everything.

Utter nonsense! Read up what "flatten the curve" means. It doesn't affect the total infection/exposure count, but only the speed at which infections/exposure take place, hoping to limit it to the hospital capacity. What the hospital-worshipers failed to take into account is that hospital intensive care only cures less than 10% of cases that require that kind of intensive care, so fitting the hospital capacity is a meaningless goal except for maximizing medical bills on the population!

When a virus has natural R0=3, then 66%-70% of the people will have to be infected/exposed to the virus before herd immunity is sufficient to stop the virus. That's just basic math / medical knowledge. Exposing 66-70% of the US population to the virus doesn't mean 2 million dead because the actual case fatality rate is much much lower than what they had thought initially. The original 2mil number came from 1% fatality assumption (66-70% of 300+mil is about 200+mil, and 1% of that is 2+mil). The fact that most people exposed to it are non-symptomatic and there already being a large immune population (Diamond Princess showing only 20-30% positive instead of 100% positive after mingling for weeks if there were no existing immunity) is indicating that the actual fatality rate is 0.1% or lower.

The countries with success in flattening the curve (and not initiating steep death rates from the outset) are all east Asian: China, Japan, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong.

In contrast to the West, they have widespread use of 1) masks, 2) testing, 3) medication (HCQ for one), 4) selective quarantine of the positive cases -- not economic destruction via mass quarantine. China's mass quarantine lasted 3 weeks, then the economy restarted. Ours has no end in sight.

CDC is asleep at the wheel here with their OCD handwashing / social avoidance campaign, and nothing else from the above list.

Reality says

Utter nonsense! Read up what "flatten the curve" means. It doesn't affect the total infection/exposure count, but only the speed at which infections/exposure take place, hoping to limit it to the hospital capacity.

Thank you Reality.

What you've just done is teach our resident faux intellectual, the concept of integral calculus.

In other words, when one adds all the incremental volumes under a rate curve, one gets a summation, or an integration, which is the total no of cases. The longer the 'curve' stays flat, the longer it takes for the larger population to get exposed to the virus and thus, spares the medical centers from reaching critical mass of patients, both Corona related and non-related, where they can't deliver healthcare to the masses.

Reality says

Utter nonsense! Read up what "flatten the curve" means. It doesn't affect the total infection/exposure count, but only the speed at which infections/exposure take place, hoping to limit it to the hospital capcity.

Yes, that's all we're doing at this point. It's a virus. It doesn't go away. Even with a vaccine, it's not going to be 100% effective. 2M won't die. As more of the sick and elderly die, there's less opportunity for the virus to kill.

People put waaaayyyy too much faith in who they think are "educated" and "know" what they're talking about.

Reality says

When a virus has natural R0=3, then 66%-70% of the people will have to be infected/exposed to the virus before herd immunity is sufficient to stop the virus.

South Korea has stopped the increase in COVID cases without "herd immunity." We know this because their mass testing yielded relatively few positive cases: 338,000 tested and 9600 positive. 133 of those died.

www.youtube.com/embed/gAk7aX5hksU&feature=youtu.be

goofus says

South Korea has stopped the increase in COVID cases without "herd immunity." We know this because their mass testing yielded relatively few positive cases: 338,000 tested and 9600 positive. 133 of those died.

Another medical ignoramus. How does testing stop spreading? It's a virus for crying out loud. 338k is less than 1% of SK population. Did they kill all the 9600 people who tested positive? Did they kill the remaining 50+ million South Koreans waiting to be tested?

South Korea has not stopped the transmission. There is a large number of new cases in Seoul in today's news. What South Korea did accomplish was slowing down the wild-fire hospital spread by forcing all doctors and nurses to wash their hands between patients.

Reality says

goofus says

South Korea has stopped the increase in COVID cases without "herd immunity." We know this because their mass testing yielded relatively few positive cases: 338,000 tested and 9600 positive. 133 of those died.

Another medical ignoramus. How does testing stop spreading? It's a virus for crying out loud. 338k is less than 1% of SK population. Did they kill all the 9600 people who tested positive? Did they kill the remaining 50+ million South Koreans waiting to be tested?

Give me a break. The pomposity. Testing stops spreading because they selectively quarantine those with positive results. Two weeks in-home, with a phone app tracking location. Authorities force them to remain in place, keeping track of (patient-reported) symptoms twice daily, followed by a doctor's visit afterward with tests for COVID antibodies. Those without antibodies are not considered cured.

You think South Korea never initiated the steep death climb because of doctors "hand washing"? You've got to be kidding me. This isn't the middle ages...

goofus says

I doubt this curve will flatten by 9000 people (the 0.0003 cited above). The steepness of our death rate and the lack of flattening are far worse than China at this point, three weeks past the 20-death mark.



504 Gateway Time-out

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nginx/1.6.2

You are drawing a log chart to mislead.

What is not shown in your log chart is another even faster rising exponential curve of people who have been exposed and survived and therefore immune.

All those exponential curves eventually have to level out to a Gaussian curve due to the large immune population. That's how all contagious disease plot over time.

The longer lock-down takes place, the more weeks it will take before the Gassian curve can flatten

So long as the lock-down is targeted at the rest of the economy instead of targeted at the hospitals, the lock-down policy is actually artificially selecting for the most deadly strains of the virus: the patients suffering from the more deadly strains get to the hospital and can communicate to others (and to medical personnel who then can bring it out to others outside the hospitals), whereas the more benign strains that land on the rest of the population are impeded from spreading. Such a policy will lead to more deaths than not having any intervention at all, where the more deadly strains would have died with the dead people leaving the more benign varieties to survive!

goofus says

a virus has natural R0=3,

Reality doesn't understand that R0=3 is for a given environment, and its value depends heavily on the environment.
There is no such thing as a 'natural R0'.

goofus says

Give me a break. The pomposity. Testing stops spreading because they selectively quarantine those with positive results. Two weeks in-home, with a phone app tracking location. Authorities force them to remain in place, keeping track of (patient-reported) symptoms twice daily, followed by a doctor's visit afterward with tests for COVID antibodies. Those without antibodies are not considered cured.

LOL! You are indeed a medical ignoramus! Those with antibodies would be highly prized because they'd be immune and can care for the sick just like TB facilities/colonies were run a century ago. There isn't a proper Covid-19 antibody test authorized yet. All the widespread tests are testing for antigens. The antigen tests range from 30%-80% in accuracy. You are out of your mind if you think those tests can really lock all infected into quarantine. Even at 80% accuracy, if you get 9600 positives, you are missing close to 2000 via false-negatives. What about the other 99+% (50+ million) of the population that have not yet been tested?

Heraclitusstudent says

a virus has natural R0=3,

Reality doesn't understand that R0=3 is for a given environment, and its value depends heavily on the environment.
There is no such thing as a 'natural R0'.

Stop projecting your own ignorance. "Natural R0" means in the absence of lock-downs. Why is that important? Because you can't lock-down forever. At some point, the lock-down will have to be lifted. If at that point the population doesn't have 66-70% immunity, the virus will spread along the exponential curve (really the left side of a Gaussian curve) until 66-70% immunity is reached, just as if the lock-down had never taken place.

To the extent that the hospitals are left not locked-down whereas the rest of the economy is locked-down, the delay during lock-down would only give the most deadly strains of the virus a Darwinian advantage, effectively artificially select, and to have an initial advantage in numerical percentage when the lock-down is lifted.

Reality says

You are drawing a log chart to mislead.

What is not shown in your log chart is another even faster rising exponential curve of people who have been exposed and survived and therefore immune.

All those exponential curves eventually have to level out to a Gaussian curve due to the large immune population. That's how all contagious disease plot over time.

I've not plotted a log-log plot, which forces a line. This is a log vs time plot, which would exaggerate any positive or negative shift in the rate of change of deaths. We should be seeing a slight inflection downward in the US if even the rate of increase were leveling and we're not (even Italy and Spain, both with parabolic increases in death on a straight plot, have evident downturns on their log vs time plots).

Reality says

LOL! You are indeed a medical ignoramus! Those with antibodies would be highly prized because they'd be immune and can care for the sick just like TB facilities/colonies were run a century ago. There isn't a proper Covid-19 antibody test authorized yet. All the widespread tests are testing for antigens. The antigen tests range from 30%-80% in accuracy. You are out of your mind if you think those tests can really lock all infected into quarantine. Even at 80% accuracy, if you get 9600 p...

"LOL"! OMG.

Look, those without antibodies are not considered cured because this is the group known to relapse. Those with antibodies are medically useful (and their antibodies, through blood samples, are indeed being used to treat COVID patients). You know so very little for one so enthusiastic.

goofus says

I've not plotted a log-log plot, which forces a line. This is a log vs time plot, which would exaggerate any positive or negative shift in the rate of change of deaths. We should be seeing a slight inflection downward in the US if even the rate of increase were leveling and we're not (even Italy and Spain, both with parabolic increases in death on a straight plot, have evident downturns on their log vs time plots).

I never accused you drawing a log-log chart. It was the log-linear chart that you drew that was misleading: exaggerating the early part of what will eventually be a Gaussian curve.

As to why we are not seeing the inflection point yet, you can blame that on the lock-down: lock-down would of course spread the Gaussian curve wider . . . which is exactly what "flatten the curve" was designed / claimed to do.

goofus says

"LOL"! OMG.

Look, those without antibodies are not considered cured because this is the group known to relapse. Those with antibodies are medically useful (and their antibodies are indeed being used to treat COVID patients). You know so very little for one so enthusiastic.

You are once again wrong, and showing your ignorance on the basic medical facts. Those so-called "relapse" is actually indicative that there might be different viruses running around. You can get flu last year, and get flu this year, not due to "relapse" but due to different types of flu infected you.

Reality says

goofus says

"LOL"! OMG.

Look, those without antibodies are not considered cured because this is the group known to relapse. Those with antibodies are medically useful (and their antibodies are indeed being used to treat COVID patients). You know so very little for one so enthusiastic.

You are once again wrong, and showing your ignorance on the basic medical facts. Those so-called "relapse" is actually indicative that there might be different viruses running around. You can get flu last year, and get flu this year, not due to "relapse" but due to different types of flu infected you.

OK, Reality. We'll just agree to disagree on "reality." This has been in the popular press for more than a month:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/02/19/coronavirus-after-2000-deaths-can-you-get-virus-again/4804905002/

"The number of confirmed cases in the coronavirus outbreak racing across China and seeping around the globe rolled past 75,700 Wednesday, and though more than 2,100 people have died, many thousands more have recovered.

With no end to the outbreak in sight, health officials grapple with the issue of reinfection – whether people can "catch" the virus again.

Li QinGyuan, director of pneumonia prevention and treatment at China Japan Friendship Hospital in Beijing, said a protective antibody is generated in those who are infected.

"However, in certain individuals, the antibody cannot last that long," Li said. "For many patients who have been cured, there is a likelihood of relapse."

goofus says

You are once again wrong, and showing your ignorance on the basic medical facts. Those so-called "relapse" is actually indicative that there might be different viruses running around. You can get flu last year, and get flu this year, not due to "relapse" but due to different types of flu infected you.

OK, Reality. We'll just agree to disagree on "reality."

There's nothing to disagree. It's the basics of human immunology.

Reality says

That's nothing to disagree. It's the basics of human immunology.

Once again, with prejudice:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/02/19/coronavirus-after-2000-deaths-can-you-get-virus-again/4804905002/
With no end to the outbreak in sight, health officials grapple with the issue of reinfection – whether people can "catch" the virus again.

Li QinGyuan, director of pneumonia prevention and treatment at China Japan Friendship Hospital in Beijing, said a protective antibody is generated in those who are infected.

"However, in certain individuals, the antibody cannot last that long," Li said. "For many patients who have been cured, there is a likelihood of relapse."

goofus says

Reality says

That's nothing to disagree. It's the basics of human immunology.

Once again, with prejudice:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/02/19/coronavirus-after-2000-deaths-can-you-get-virus-again/4804905002/
With no end to the outbreak in sight, health officials grapple with the issue of reinfection – whether people can "catch" the virus again.

Li QinGyuan, director of pneumonia prevention and treatment at China Japan Friendship Hospital in Beijing, said a protective antibody is generated in those who are infected.

"However, in certain individuals, the antibody cannot last that long," Li said. "For many patients who have been cured, there is a likelihood of relapse."

They are trying to cover up the fact that multiple different viruses escaped from their lab and/or their tests suck. Any first-year student in immunology would know that immunity wouldn't drop within weeks / days. The "replapse" was either due to the shitty tests (30% accuracy) they have indicating false negatives earlier or the patients being infected with a different virus. The "director" was obviously a communist party member paid to lie.

If in fact it escaped from a lab and has an HIV-like insertion (retracted Indian paper from January), then perhaps it responds in atypical ways. One cannot say at this point, particularly not a "first year immunology student" (c.f. --?)

goofus says

If in fact it escaped from a lab and has an HIV-like insertion (retracted Indian paper from January), then perhaps it responds in atypical ways. One cannot say at this point, particularly not a "first year immunology student" (c.f. --?)

HIV replicates very slowly and spreads only through blood on blood contact. Maybe it has or has not a very small component of it, but it's overall a totally different virus.

mell says

HIV replicates very slowly and spreads only through blood on blood contact. Maybe it has or has not a very small component of it, but it's overall a totally different virus.

Agreed, Mell. But COVID nonetheless responds to anti-retroviral medications (along with anti-malarial, anti-Ebola, and a few others). It's a strange bird.