patrick.net

Another article about Levitt:

https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-nobel-laureate-Coronavirus-spread-is-slowing-621145

He seems to be saying: "with social distancing and other measures we can control this". Problem is with strict social distancing, some are estimating a 30% cut in GDP. If continued more than a couple of months, that means financial meltdown.

Without social distancing - whenever we stop it - this thing will bounce back, meaning back to an overwhelmed heathcare system. Even flattening the curve was estimated to create heathcare needs above the system capacity by a factor 8.

I don't think anyone is going to be fine.
Only optimistic paths: an existing antiviral drug starts to work, or the virus peters out for the summer.
But even if it peters out for summer, it means southern hemisphere will take it in winter, and then it will come back to us in 6 months.
Probably half the population will get this virus in the longer term.

They can let up the social distancing step by step, esp. since we will have created some herd immunity with those already infected. Summer will help as well.

Meanwhile unemployment is scheduled to spike to 30%, higher than even the depths of the Great Depression.
Can I be mayor of a Hooverville?

mell says

we will have created some herd immunity with those already infected

When serological tests are available, we will be able to say "OK, you already had it, even if you never noticed. You're free to mingle."

Heraclitusstudent says

Only optimistic paths: an existing antiviral drug starts to work, or the virus peters out for the summer.

Maybe you overlooked several other optimistic paths:

- hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin actually works as several labs have claimed; no one seems to have proved it doesn't work
- it's really not all that contagious compared to regular flu, explaining why only 20% of Diamond Princess passengers go it
- it will simply burn out quickly here because of the social distancing, as in China

South Korea is an interesting country to watch as well. You can get daily updates here. If you click the daily reports they break down the country by region and also highlight the clusters that have been uncovered. They appear to have gone from log to linear increases.

A place in Sunnyvale invented a test which gives results in 45 minutes. (Cepheid)

another in the Bay Area can produce antibodies to Wuhan virus, it’s going to be tested first by the Army I believe.

This shit is becoming a panic media event for political reasons.

Some realistic scenarios
https://reason.com/2020/03/23/two-reasons-the-worst-case-scenarios-for-covid-19-seem-unrealistic/

Japan to reopen schools closed for coronavirus after spring recess:
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japanese Education Minister Koichi Hagiuda said on Friday the government would not extend its request that schools be closed until spring break to stem coronavirus infections, setting the stage for classes to resume at the start of the academic year in April.
Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

“Getting vaccinated against the flu is important because a coronavirus outbreak that strikes in the middle of a flu epidemic is much more likely to overwhelm hospitals and increases the odds that the coronavirus goes undetected. This was probably a factor in Italy, a country with a strong anti-vaccine movement, he said.“

(Bono voice:)

Not fade awwwway hey hey hey, Muh Corona Technocracy Excuse, Uh ha, not fade away-hey hey.

If COVID-19 ever gets 5G or LTE, we are in trouble. At this point, it appears the EM fields travel faster than the virus.

I'll make a prediction. We're sliding down the slope of hope. The market will bottom with the DJIA =~ 1 troy ounce of gold.

So this means either the dollar gets inflated away to nothing where $10,000 is a very inexpensive 1 bedroom to to rent in Silicon Valley, or the DJIA hits something like 2 or 3 thousand.

People easily forget that "news" in the United States is pure propaganda. They never tell you anything informative or helpful, ever. Their job is propaganda, they are public relations for the corporations that own them.

The economic damage is huge and is rapidly getting larger. We have millions of unemployed now. On Thursday we will see how many signed up for unemployment last week. Keep in mind that there are millions of newly unemployed that do not get unemployment benefits (part time workers, illegals and those without the 6 months of necessary employment with their current employer). Millions more have had their hours cut and/or income reduced. Thousands upon thousands of small businesses have simply closed up and will be unable to open again as their owners have lost the ability to borrow money because their credit ratings are shot. Those jobs are lost for a long time and will not simply bounce back.

We are at the very beginning of the job losses.

Supply chains are in upheaval, and manufacturing is simply stopping in some major industries (aircraft and autos) and is greatly slowing across the board.

Many large corporations are still paying idled workers at their present salaries (not all corporations are evil), however, they will not be able to do so for an extended period, and eventually these workers will be shuffled onto unemployment.

Commercial real estate is in disarray. Rents are not getting paid and credit lines are being drawn down to make current mortgage payments.

Financial institutions are being super lenient with auto and home loans and allowing borrowers to skip payments and just tacking them onto the back of the loan terms. However, they will not be able to do so indefinitely. Eventually loan losses will show up on the financial institution's books. Financial institutions know they will be needing another bailout, so they're playing nice.

State and local governments are operating in a cloud of delusion. They closed a huge portion of their economy, tax revenues are going to drop off a cliff, and local services are going to be increased (policing because crime is going to skyrocket). Most of these government entities operate under balanced budget amendments. They will be looking for handouts from the Federal government or they will be laying off workers, as well.

Except for the cash payments to CITIZENS and an increase to unemployment compensation, most of the stimulus is comprised of loans. There is just not enough oomph in this package to rapidly get America going again.

Unless there is a miracle cure, this virus will be back in the Fall/Winter, when good weather is gone. Flu vaccines are about 30% effective and I expect COVID-19 vaccine to be about the same. Unless we are willing to shut down the economy again, we are simply postponing the deaths for a huge economic hit.

We'll be fine! If we pass a comprehensive stimulus the economy should be roaring back on pent up demand, at least to much better levels than currently.

I will post a counter to all this:
https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/when-will-coronavirus-peak-Bay-Area-SF-15152009.php
UCSF professor of epidemiology Dr. Jeffrey Martin said what we’ll see in the next week or two really represents transmission that occurred in the past one to three weeks, roughly between Feb. 14 and the first week of March.

"Most of that period was when we were not in an intensive social distancing mode," Martin said. "It was spreading in an invisible way in early March. That is what we will see in the next 10 to 14 days. People shouldn’t be confused by that, however, and thinking that what we have been doing hasn’t been working."
That does not necessarily invalidate what Michael Levitt is saying.

georgeliberte says

I will post a counter to all this:
https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/when-will-coronavirus-peak-Bay-Area-SF-15152009.php
UCSF professor of epidemiology Dr. Jeffrey Martin said what we’ll see in the next week or two really represents transmission that occurred in the past one to three weeks, roughly between Feb. 14 and the first week of March.

"Most of that period was when we were not in an intensive social distancing mode," Martin said. "It was spreading in an invisible way in early March. That is what we will see in the next 10 to 14 days. People shouldn’t be confused by that, however, and thinking that what we have been doing hasn’t been working."
That does not necessarily invalidate what Michael Levitt is saying.

Absolutely - the slowing down is just about to kick i but it should be rapidly at some point.

Stick market seems to be reacting to this.

Misc says

State and local governments are operating in a cloud of delusion.

I think they're scared shitless. Usually they may lay off a few workers, maybe a pay freeze and hiring freeze. This is the first time in my life that I think major non-essential government workers will be laid off in mass. The only essentials at this point are cops, firefighters/EMT's, 911 dispatch, and water and sewer employees. Teachers, college professors, public works (non-essential), parks and rec, etc. are very likely to start seeing layoff notices in the near future. Especially in district and colleges where they cancelled the rest of the semester. Zero sense in paying those people for doing nothing from a tax payers perspective. And that's where the emotions and potential violence elevate.

Non-sales tax states will fare much better though. Most of their revenue is through income taxes and property taxes. I'm just glad I filed my taxes early and already received my refund federally. I really need to rethink the federal withholding and get that return closer to zero. Hopefully the result of this is that government realizes how much bloat there is and that sales taxes are truly awful.

Trump finally hinted that he's going to say fuck the doctors. Old and weak people stay home, we're going back to work. Continue social distancing practices. Because instead of overwhelming hospitals we're going to overwhelm cops and firefighters pulling people down from rafters from a rope or a bathtub with a hair dryer in it. More people than anyone realizes are on the brink. This is going to test a lot of people that thought they were tough.

Medical services are sales tax free. Taxing them would mean a huge added expense not covered by insurance. Medical providers would out of necessity charge these taxes upfront. Unpalatable situations would unfold quickly.

OccasionalCortex says

And why in the hell do sales taxes only cover goods and not services when 77% of our GDP is comprised of services anyway? I could NEVER understand that. All the way back to the 1980s, yeah. But from 1990ish onwards, no.

So this is a nice kick-in-the-ass wake up call for states to start adding services into the mix. They can lower the overall tax rate covering both goods and services and still make even more of a revenue haul than they did even during normal times. No more 10% sales tax rates. More like 3% on all goods and most services. Poor would benefit from this, too.

You know how this will end: 10% sales tax on BOTH goods and services.

So stop fucking giving them fucking ideas!

Patrick says

Heraclitusstudent says

Only optimistic paths: an existing antiviral drug starts to work, or the virus peters out for the summer.

Maybe you overlooked several other optimistic paths:

- hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin actually works as several labs have claimed; no one seems to have proved it doesn't work
- it's really not all that contagious compared to regular flu, explaining why only 20% of Diamond Princess passengers go it
- it will simply burn out quickly here because of the social distancing, as in China

First, the hydroxychloroquine path is the one I mentioned. It is still VERY IFFY.

For the rest, I just don't think you guys get it.
The total number of person infected in still going up exponentially in most countries. Italy number of deaths is doubling every 5 days, in the US it is doubling every 3 days .
Complete lockdowns will just "flatten the curve" meaning a large part of the population will still get sick, just slower. This means it is absolutely possible that 150 millions people could get sick in the US in the next year, and 1 million people die. Everything that is said here doesn't make that alternative less probable.

Quite frankly the quality of comments here has been dropping. Most people are posting sectarian guff and seem to see the entire world through WHATISGOODFORTRUMP goggles. It's idiotic and thoroughly uninteresting.

Heraclitusstudent says

Quite frankly the quality of comments here has been dropping. Most people are posting sectarian guff and seem to see the entire world through WHATISGOODFORTRUMP goggles. It's idiotic and thoroughly uninteresting.

Yeah - there is no "sectarian Orange Man Bad guff" coming from our media and Democrats the past several weeks! Lets back to the sky is falling and media headlines of Trump killing people in Arizona for drinking aquarium cleaner!

Heraclitusstudent says

Quite frankly the quality of comments here has been dropping. Most people are posting sectarian guff and seem to see the entire world through WHATISGOODFORTRUMP goggles. It's idiotic and thoroughly uninteresting.

CNN, PMSNBC, hyping this thing like the Andromeda Strain. The entire media is pumping the worst case scenarios and if Our Lady of the Luminous Laceration Hospital in Hoboken is down to the last 100 masks, the media will flip but that they are receiving 1000 more by truck from a warehouse in a couple of hours gets left out.


Newspaper of record constantly changing it's headline over a few hours on the same story about why stimulus is delayed (Democrats trying to sneak Partisan language into the bill) to pitch it as anti-Trump and pro-Democrat as possible.

Heraclitusstudent says

The total number of person infected in still going up exponentially in most countries. Italy number of deaths is doubling every 5 days, in the US it is doubling every 3 days .
Complete lockdowns will just "flatten the curve" meaning a large part of the population will still get sick, just slower. This means it is absolutely possible that 150 millions people could get sick in the US in the next year, and 1 million people die. Everything that is said here doesn't make that alternative less probable.

The number of people being tested and visiting hospitals for a sickness they'd simply stay home and Netflix and Blow Snot before is going up rapidly. I suspect Millions have already had this thing.

60M Americans got H1N1, 11,000 Americans died, and 1700 died before Obama took Federal Action. The Media made it a page 2 or 3 story. If this wasn't hyped, people would think it's just flu season again.

People who are still at the stage "it's all media hype", "a conspiracy against Trump", "it's like the flu" are living in denial.
50K Americans are sick, 600 died, and it's just a small hint of what's to come.

In my county 20 cases, 0 dead so I think they are making a big deal out of it from my perspective.

In a town in Italy where the average age is 70+ the perspective is different.

So far the 2019-2020 US flu season tally is (per CDC):

38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses
17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits
390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations
23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths

Italy is a country of 60+ million people. Given that average life expectancy is 82.5, at least 1% of the population dies every year; i.e. 600k+ Italians die every year . . . translating to close to 2000 per day on average. Winter months tend to have higher per day death count than warmer months, due to the ravage of Flu and Cold on old people. It is not unusual to have 3000+ people die in a day in Italy in winter months in years past. The 500-800 per day supposed dying due to Covid-19 is actually proving that Covid-19 is less deadly than the usual Flu and Cold! Many of those 500-800 counted are also likely to be false-positives on dead bodies: if the test is like the normal rapid Flu virus test, which is only accurate 35-55% of the time on adults, testing 3000 dead bodies would yield 1500 false-positives even if "Covid-19" doesn't exist at all!

Of course hospitals are over-worked during winter months: why would hospitals build to beyond peak utilization if it is extremely expensive to build capacity thanks government regulatory burden and socialist funding (building roads to nowhere instead of where they are needed).

Heraclitusstudent says

People who are still at the stage "it's all media hype", "a conspiracy against Trump", "it's like the flu" are living in denial.
50K Americans are sick, 600 died, and it's just a small hint of what's to come.

Given the US has a population of 370 million, and life expectancy of about 80, at least 1% die every year, translating to 3.7million people dying every year, or 10k people per day dying! and winter months should have higher than warmer months due to the impact of flu and cold on the elderly. Testing the 10k-15k bodies every day is likely to yield at least 1000-1500 positive even if the test were 90% accurate and the disease "Covid-19" doesn't exist at all! We are not exactly seeing over-worked morgues and crematoriums all across the US or even in NY area . . . quite unlike what happened in Wuhan two months ago.

clambo says

In my county 20 cases, 0 dead so I think they are making a big deal out of it from my perspective.

More deaths in Baltimore city due to homicides than 2019 Chink flu over the appropriate time frame.

Heraclitusstudent says

The total number of person infected in still going up exponentially in most countries.

Asian countries are the ones to watch. Admittedly, there are good reasons why it could be different over there than here, but overall, their trajectories appear to be where we will be heading as well. I'm in the Bay Area bubble so that may affect my outlook. Clearly we need a period of mild lockdown (social distancing, shutting down schools) to flatten the curve, but I'm going with the Stanford Nobel laureate on this one. Peace in our time. It appears to me that the Imperial College models were a "worst case" and we got lucky with this pandemic. I do wonder if we'd be able to make it through a Spanish Flu type situation.

Reality says

Given the US has a population of 370 million, and life expectancy of about 80, at least 1% die every year, translating to 3.7million people dying every year, or 10k people per day dying!

This is exactly the kind of pathetic guff that makes this board useless.
So 1 million Americans will die from this virus? So what? More die of old age anyway.
Brilliant!

zzyzzx says

More deaths in Baltimore city due to homicides than 2019 Chink flu over the appropriate time frame.

Is this really an argument? The virus is barely getting started.
This represents a stupendous failure to look even a few weeks into the future.

OccasionalCortex says

You snagged that from Peter Zeihan, didn't you?

I've not heard of him (though who knows, if you've posted some of his stuff to Pat.net before, I may have read it). The population demographic breakdown of Japan was from here via the CIA Factbook.

Cue the banjos. Dueling studies from across the pond.
Up to half of the UK population may have already contracted the coronavirus, according to a new study from researchers at the University of Oxford. The study claims the disease reached the UK by mid-January ‘at the latest’ and appears to counter the modelling at Imperial College London, which the government has based its responsive measures on so far during the pandemic.
I imagine the truth is somewhere between Oxford and Imperial College (hopefully closer to Oxford).

Heraclitusstudent says

Italy number of deaths is doubling every 5 days, in the US it is doubling every 3 days .

99.1% of deaths have major pre-exes. CV worsens their situation, it doesn't create their situation.

Heraclitusstudent says

This means it is absolutely possible that 150 millions people could get sick in the US in the next year, and 1 million people die.

Butt numbers, pulled right our yo ass. 150 million people probably WILL contract the virus. At least 80% will have almost no issues. At most, 1% of those remaining will die. I'd bet it's much lower than that.

Weren't you making claims like this back in january? Didnt I show you that by mid march many millions would be dead given your growth rates? Now that we are towards end of march, how many have died?

Your apocolyptic numbers are flat wrong dude.

Heraclitusstudent says

. Italy number of deaths is doubling every 5 days, in the US it is doubling every 3 days .

Where do you get "Italy doubles every 5 days"? This still shows it in "less than 3 days" category:

https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-eu.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fec8aa6bc-6d58-11ea-89df-41bea055720b?fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=1260