patrick.net

Each bitcoin will purchase power equivalent of a 50 story Manhattan tower

WookieMan says

No need to say age, but we're entering a baby boom right now for millennials. Kids need shit. That shit creates jobs on a massive scale that are sustainable.

WookieMan says

Call me out if I'm wrong, which I probably will be, but there's too much money going to be sunk into family creation over the next decade.

OK, you're wrong... again... it's actually the opposite. Millennials are opting out of having kids and birth rates are dropping. Their spending their money on 4 legged creatures.

Millennials Aren't Having Kids. Here's Why That's A Problem For Baby Boomer Real Estate & Retirement
https://www.forbes.com/sites/josephcoughlin/2018/06/11/millennials-arent-having-kids-heres-why-thats-a-problem-for-baby-boomer-real-estate-retirement/#79acfe812058

And in place of kids, Millennials are getting pets instead. The rate Millennials are getting pets is actually higher than kids.

4 Reasons Millennials Are Choosing Dogs Over Babies
https://simplyfordogs.com/millennials/4-reasons-millennials-choosing-dogs-babies/

Fewer babies, but more ‘fur babies’

But while fertility is down — women are having an average of 1.8 kids today, down from 3.7 in 1960, according to the Census Bureau — pet ownership (and pampering) is on the rise. A survey by TD Ameritrade finds that Millennials are spending lavishly on their pets. Out of 1,500 Millennials survey, 72% had pets and most of those pet owners (67%) regarded their animals as “fur babies.”
https://www.theladders.com/career-advice/reports-millennials-put-off-kids-due-to-money-but-pamper-pets-lavishly

You should consider investing in pet products instead of cannabis.

MrMagic says

You should consider investing in pet products instead of cannabis.

Got a ticker in mind? Otherwise I don't think anyone cares.

MrMagic says

Millennials Aren't Having Kids. Here's Why That's A Problem For Baby Boomer Real Estate & Retirement

Forbes, that's rich. You understand that babies don't just pop out the same day they're conceived, right? I live in shitty ass IL, with super high property taxes, so the financial struggles are real for most people living here. Almost every couple I know right now around my age is pregnant. If things were soooooo bad, they wouldn't be having kids.

Yes, I'll grant that millennials are having kids later in life then their folks. But they are now having kids. I'm making a prediction and it's currently happening in the moment. Show me the stats in 3 years and rub it in my face if I'm wrong. You won't be able to.

MrMagic says

Fewer babies, but more ‘fur babies’

You do understand you just linked and read propaganda, right? You literally just posted a site that has more affiliate links for dog products then almost any other site I've seen. Please be aware of what you're reading and claiming it as fact.

A site selling dog products WANTS PEOPLE TO GET DOGS! They did research and found out that these crazy millennials are getting older and might want to have kids. Knock, knock. Who's there? The article claiming it's cool to have a dog and millennials are not having kids.....

Please do some more research on how businesses operate, specifically web based sites. The internet is not your friend and will lie to you.

barrister says

There's a nice movie about this here:www.youtube.com/embed/4ILoXhrLbO8 (murdered/"suicided")

This guy is all so dramatic. You should read a little bit of Steven Pinker, for balance.

I wonder if the crash already happened outside America and the obvious places (S&P, Dow).

- Bitcoin ($19k to 6k) - not huge, but not insignificant (especially for the guy who mortgaged his house at the wrong time)
- Emerging Markets down 10-20% this year
- Interest rates rising

Also heard something today that was interesting: on average, over the past 116 years, the US stock markets lost 14% on average every year, for about a two month period -- almost a seasonal thing. (Yearly stock sale lol) I'm wary of averages as data points, and obviously our markets have gained a lot over the same time period of generally cheap energy and widespread debt financing.

On MCR being dramatic in his movie CoLLapse. Sure, certainly he's dramatic. That's the doom porn entertainment value. I think he'll be proved right in several generations though as we burn up our fossil fuels endowments and go back to outright slavery, as you can see already globally in hotspots, and in the US through the servant economy and high rents. Wages in the US have been dropping since the 1970s which coincides with "peak CONVENTIONAL oil" in the US in the 70s.

We're using fossil fuels much faster than we find new caches of it. We can use it more efficiently especially in US suburbs, but there it is. A future of less fossil fuel energy used per person.

WookieMan says

Almost every couple I know right now around my age is pregnant. If things were soooooo bad, they wouldn't be having kids.

Well jeez, if it's true for everyone you know, it must be true for everyone else!

Forbes isn't perfect, but the article is borne out of actual data, not one person's personal experience. It's not hard to look at population data and birth rates and arrive at the same conclusions as the article.

barrister says

Also heard something today that was interesting: on average, over the past 116 years, the US stock markets lost 14% on average every year, for about a two month period -- almost a seasonal thing. (Yearly stock sale lol)

Wtf r u talking about?

Evan F. says

Well jeez, if it's true for everyone you know, it must be true for everyone else!

Lol yeah the $120/brunch crowd totally hangs w the poor and unfortunate.

Evan F. says

Forbes isn't perfect, but the article is borne out of actual data, not one person's personal experience.

What data? Where did it come from? Who did it come from? Do birth rates account for women currently pregnant (my point)? I wouldn't trust an academic as far as I could throw them. It was a poorly written, condescending (lol, all academics) and if you believe it, more power to you I guess.

Anecdotal evidence has done me 10 fold better then anything a "news" source puts out. I'll stick with my gut, experiences and my own data. Again, in three years call me out on this thread. Never said I was batting 1000, but millennials will replace the dying boomers with kids at a higher rate compared to deaths. That's all that matters.

Here's the fact, look around you, it can help you more than you think. Stop believing everything you read. I live by a municipal airport. What do you think that place looked like in 2010? Versus now? On the way to your job, keep an eye out for trucks carrying lumber. I'm 1/3 mile from a train (fucking annoying). Track the frequency (horns). Things look different when times are bad.

If you don't think Forbes (or ANY media) has an agenda, you'll continue to be fooled. All data is loaded with bias. All of it. Hello? Trump polls!

WookieMan says

What data? Where did it come from? Who did it come from? Do birth rates account for women currently pregnant (my point)?

The CDC. Is says so right in the article. The number of women currently pregnant wouldn't affect the birth rate more than a minor amount. If every millennial women was suddenly pregnant it would be very big news. Not to mention having lines around the block at every OB office in the country.

WookieMan says

Stop believing everything you read. I live by a municipal airport. What do you think that place looked like in 2010? Versus now? On the way to your job, keep an eye out for trucks carrying lumber. I'm 1/3 mile from a train (fucking annoying). Track the frequency (horns).

WTF? 2010 was the bottom. There have been 8 years of growing economy. Who says the economy hasn't grown since 2010 that your anecdotal evidence contradicts?

WookieMan says

Trump polls!

Hello,look up margin of error. Trump won within the margin of error of all major polls. People wanting to believe is a different story. I told people trump was very likely to win based on margin of error and they thought I was crazy.

bob2356 says

Hello,look up margin of error. Trump won within the margin of error of all major polls. People wanting to believe is a different story. I told people trump was very likely to win based on margin of error and they thought I was crazy.

You're not getting my angle. I understand what you're saying with margin of error. The problem is that people take the data (in most cases flawed) and create a narrative. X candidate is ahead and will MOST certainly win. People are idiots and will believe that "news" story. They do it to their benefit. More ad revenue. More clicks. Whatever is in their best interest. There is NO honest news organization in this world. This is fact. They need to make money, and doing that involves bending the truth.

bob2356 says

The CDC. Is says so right in the article.

You trust this government (or any)? CDC? I don't. It's a straw man, but would you trust the CDC of Mexico? They're all run by people (humans), why is our CDC version better then theirs? Drink from the tap in Mexico and let us know how it goes. I'm not a tinfoil hat guy, but take any gov. data with a grain of salt. Like they don't have any agenda....

bob2356 says

WTF? 2010 was the bottom. There have been 8 years of growing economy. Who says the economy hasn't grown since 2010 that your anecdotal evidence contradicts?

You didn't get my point. I was saying 2010 looks different than now. How many small jets per week you think were at that airport in a weeks time in 2010 versus now? 2 vs. 12. The economy has obviously improved and it's obvious by just observing and not necessarily believing everything you read. Some say shit is bad and some say it's good. I go by what my eyes see. That's what I'm getting at.

3 trains a day 2010
15 trains a day 2018

While I don't write everything down, these things do matter if you pay attention. That's what I was getting at.

The only people who think the economy is "worse off" now are stricken with a severe case of TDS and symptoms of butt hurt-itis.

WookieMan says

You trust this government (or any)? CDC?

ROFLOL. Great. Anecdotal it is for you. I wish you the best of luck. Should the CEO's of major corporations be using anecdotal also since there is no good data. How about lawmakers?

WookieMan says

d. Some say shit is bad and some say it's good.

Dodging the question. Who says the economy is bad?

WookieMan says

I understand what you're saying with margin of error. The problem is that people take the data (in most cases flawed) and create a narrative. X candidate is ahead and will MOST certainly win. People are idiots and will believe that "news" story.

The data and polls themselves also wrong though. Polling is incredibly tough, and every poll should come complete w methods, assumptions, and effects of those assumptions.

Want hard data? Look at the number of people who show up to a Trump rally vs the 2 dozen who who up for Jay-Z and Beyonce while HRC pretends to have supporters.

Anyone who suggests the polls were correct are allowing themselves to be lied to.

CBOEtrader says

The data and polls themselves also wrong though.

So how much faith can you put in them is what I'm getting at? It's like baseball. There's the analytics on players and then the eye test. By no means am I saying fuck ALL data, just understand it can be biased or at least the sources presenting said data. Data is just one tool in the tool box. Too many people take it as the gospel is what I'm getting at.

bob2356 says

Dodging the question. Who says the economy is bad?

Jesus, I don't know, not me. Not dodging anything. I'm not saying you or anyone here is saying the economy is bad. What I'm saying is smart people, can see for themselves if the economy is good or bad without getting buried in data that very likely is intended to be misleading.

The data is visible around us everyday. This is what good CEO's do in major corporations. Critical thinking. Not just rely on data sets, but anticipating future outcomes ahead of what the data is showing.

My anecdotal way of life has done well by me. Unless I die, retired by 45 and not thinking about money at that point. It's not hard to outsmart 80-90% of the population.

WookieMan says

it can be biased or at least the sources presenting said data.

The methods will always be biased to the assumptions of the polling group. Once a polling group proves itself to be biased, ignore their numbers. CNN polls, for ex. haha what garbage.

bob2356 says

Should the CEO's of major corporations be using anecdotal also since there is no good data.

Yes. They should. I spoke with an executive of a mexican market chain in Texas. He told me when choosing a new location, they do slow drive by's of the local elementary schools and literally count the number of brown kids to white/black kids.

CBOEtrader says

WookieMan says

it can be biased or at least the sources presenting said data.

The methods will always be biased to the assumptions of the polling group. Once a polling group proves itself to be biased, ignore their numbers. CNN polls, for ex. haha what garbage.

Exactly. But it extends beyond just election polling. Someone researching the farm business, say from Monsanto, is going to have bias. Even university funded research will be biased based on the people doing the research. Is there value in it, sure. But unless you're looking at the raw data, most people will rely on the "media" to forward the data to them. They need clicks and views, so they're going to do what ever is reasonably "acceptable" to get you to click on it without completely trashing their reputation.

CBOEtrader says

bob2356 says

Should the CEO's of major corporations be using anecdotal also since there is no good data.

Yes. They should. I spoke with an executive of a mexican market chain in Texas. He told me when choosing a new location, they do slow drive by's of the local elementary schools and literally count the number of brown kids to white/black kids.

I get Bob's point, but this is exactly what I'm getting at and you're spot on. There are things you can physically SEE that can influence your business or finances. I'm probably on some spectrum or something, but just noticing things around you matters. Listen to what people say, but look at the airport if you drive by one every time. Keep note of trains going by. Look at the semi's on the highway, see what they're carrying on the flatbed variety (there were ZERO lumber trucks in 2009-2010). That regular restaurant you visit once a month on a Friday, is it packed or not (they're packed now).

2010 looked a whole lot different then now if you look at just the 4 things I mention.

@bob2356 Late 80's Boom huh? That's the nicest name I've ever seen for the SnL scandal.

barrister says

When the next great stock crash will happen - and how it will look

I'm gonna play it safe and say 2018. But they've been blowing this debt/inflation bubble for a while, and to unprecedented proportions. Maybe they'll keep it inflated another year?

CBOEtrader says

bob2356 says

Should the CEO's of major corporations be using anecdotal also since there is no good data.

Yes. They should. I spoke with an executive of a mexican market chain in Texas. He told me when choosing a new location, they do slow drive by's of the local elementary schools and literally count the number of brown kids to white/black kids.

That is called research at that point, not anecdotal. Who was that and what chain? .

WookieMan says

Jesus, I don't know, not me. Not dodging anything. I'm not saying you or anyone here is saying the economy is bad. What I'm saying is smart people, can see for themselves if the economy is good or bad without getting buried in data that very likely is intended to be misleading.

The data is visible around us everyday. This is what good CEO's do in major corporations. Critical thinking. Not just rely on data sets, but anticipating future outcomes ahead of what the data is showing.

This would apply to 2007? How did that work out for CEO's of major corporations like say banks? I looked at the number of house sales in 2006 that were going to be owner occupied (considerably less than 50%) and sold out of RE. If I had looked at the happy days are here again bubble going on all around me I would have gotten killed. Anyway whatever floats your boat. Go and be happy.

The 2008 downturn was easy to predict. It’s just that so many people had so much skin in the bogus game to entertain the notion that everything was about to fold up.
I predicted it two years before, and even timed my 401k so I switched to bonds in December 2007.
Of course I wasn’t a homeowner or major investor, so I had little reason to believe in the current state of things. I think that’s what it came down to. People were too invested in the housing market and the current economy to take a step back and consider that everything was just nuts! But if you’d applied anecdotes and noticed all the low test people buying expensive houses with no money down and no plan for how to pay their mortgages now let alone if anything happened to their variable interest rates or jobs, you’d have been a little worried.

Quigley says

But if you’d applied anecdotes and noticed all the low test people buying expensive houses with no money down and no plan for how to pay their mortgages now let alone if anything happened to their variable interest rates or jobs, you’d have been a little worried.

This. I can't recall if the story was true or not from the Big Short movie, but when you see a stripper buying multiple houses, that's a problem. The stats will show you that sales volume and prices are great, even though it's all BS because people are getting houses that should never be getting them. The data failed and it fails a lot.

This is why I liken it to baseball or sports in general. Take the Chicago Cubs for example. They play a lot of day games in a city where it's easy to party. On paper, you could scout a guy that looks amazing. Dig into his personal life and SEE that he likes his booze. Yes this is research and data in a sense, but it's more of a feel thing. The data/analytics look great, but this dude might not be a good fit for the Cubs because he likes to be out late and they play a ton of day games in the city he'll be living in.

There's no database for drunks, so this is what I'm getting at about anecdotal in my baseball reference above. Data is a tool. As I've said, I use it. But when it comes to pretty much ANY news source, don't bite the turd. The data they're using was likely biased and they're then putting their spin on it. Double turd.

Quigley says

But if you’d applied anecdotes and noticed all the low test people buying expensive houses with no money down and no plan for how to pay their mortgages now let alone if anything happened to their variable interest rates or jobs, you’d have been a little worried.

WookieMan says

but when you see a stripper buying multiple houses, that's a problem.

Ok got it, you guys were out interviewing all the strippers and low test people asking if they bought houses with no money down on a variable rate with no plan to pay their mortgage. That was clever. How many did you check out and how many did you find that met the criteria?

You do remember in the big short it was reams of analytical data (or as you say stats) that sent them out looking for anecdotal strippers to check out.?

WookieMan says

Data is a tool. As I've said, I use it.

How do you use data as a tool when there are no sources you trust?

The crash happened already. Drugs in the water and food supply have turned everyone into zombies!

bob2356 says

WookieMan says

but when you see a stripper buying multiple houses, that's a problem.

Ok got it, you guys were out interviewing all the strippers and low test people asking if they bought houses with no money down on a variable rate with no plan to pay their mortgage. That was clever. How many did you check out and how many did you find that met the criteria?

You do remember in the big short it was reams of analytical data (or as you say stats) that sent them out looking for anecdotal strippers to check out.?

WookieMan says

Data is a tool. As I've said, I use it.

How do you use data as a tool when there are no sources you trust?

I was and still am in the industry so to speak. It was stupid and it was obvious. The classic fear of missing out. I frankly was more naive (22ish) then and didn't see what was staring me in the face. I now look around a lot more closely and track these things. It has helped me to be on the path to retire by 45ish with no worries.

And yes, I don't trust the data. I look at the sources, analyze where it came from and make an informed decision based upon the source. You don't have to trust the data to still be able to use it. I know you're not saying this, but blindly trusting ANY data, especially when it's been spun by media is crazy.

Up to 60% off if you look here-

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4211614-hidden-bear-market

Did I win?