patrick.net

This why it's easy to believe anything no matter how bizzar.
www.youtube.com/embed/u1WSs9B4H5s

LeonDurham says

Latest poll has Beto up 2 pts...

Nice link to that data....

Beto hasn't been up.... EVER.... I think you mean "behind less"...

Booger says

Ridiculous. Everyone knows that would only work if China was 12 hours behind us!

LeonDurham says

This is the definition of confirmation bias. You believe the poll because it confirms what you think.

It's because the poll's definition of likely voter was singularly "unusual".

The Ipsos poll, done in partnership with Reuters and the University of Virginia, surveyed 992 voters over nine days earlier this month, garnering an error margin of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

It was done online, with the sample drawn from panels and then calibrated to reflect demographics. It had a much different partisan breakdown, featuring 47 percent Republicans, 43 percent Democrats and 9 percent independents.

Chris Jackson, the Ipsos pollster, openly admitted that his team took a different approach to determining a likely voter.

"Our poll allows a bit more for enthusiasm," he said, explaining that typical turnout for a midterm election in Texas wouldn't take into account a wave of Democratic support that many experts are expecting in November. "Our electorate is a little browner, not quite as old and not as affluent."

And done via panels, online. After the pollsters selected for "Demographic" membership. Guess who is less likely to vote? Poor Young Minorities, the very people Ipsos weighted their poll in favor of.

Traditionally, likely voters are by phone and by "did you vote in the past election(s)?" Not by "How much do you hate Trump." "Man, I HATE THAT GUY. I would totally vote (nevermind I didn't vote in the past 4 elections)."

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/2018-elections/2018/09/19/day-after-poll-shows-ted-cruz-blowing-away-beto-orourke-new-survey-shows-dead-heat-gives

MrMagic says

Nice link to that data....

Beto hasn't been up.... EVER.... I think you mean "behind less"...

It's amazing that every other person reading this thread found the poll with no trouble. There's even a link provided above to the poll.

Here it is again:

https://www.opednews.com/articles/Ipsos-Reuters-poll-Beto-u-by-Stephen-Fox-Beto-O-Rourke-Us-Congressman-El-Paso_Get-Out-The-Vote-And-Registering-Voters_Hispanic-Voters_Immigration-Control-180919-824.html

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

And done via panels, online. After the pollsters selected for "Demographic" membership. Guess who is less likely to vote? Poor Young Minorities, the very people Ipsos weighted their poll in favor of.

Traditionally, likely voters are by phone and by "did you vote in the past election(s)?" Not by "How much do you hate Trump." "Man, I HATE THAT GUY. I would totally vote (nevermind I didn't vote in the past 4 elections)."

We'll see. I think both the recent polls are outliers. Cruz isn't up 9 and Beto isn't up 2. That's why it's best to average a group of polls from respected pollsters. Probably Cruz is up 3-4 pts...

Aphroman says

How funny is it to watch Trumpcucks go full TDS and support a GOPe swamp monster. Is it lying Teds opinion of Trump that swung them?

It’s probably because Beta is a full on SJW Soros puppet. No one with two brain cells to rub together would vote for him.

Goran_K says

It’s probably because Beta is a full on SJW Soros puppet. No one with two brain cells to rub together would vote for him.

Can you detail his policies that lead you to this conclusion?

Democrats never change-dems the champions of slavery , now hater of free speech and lovers of the police state-

Here is beto on what illegals are good for-LOLZ!!!!! Racist piece of trash-oh wrong party-if a repub said this-ya know what would happen.

https://www.breitbart.com/video/2018/09/19/watch-beto-orourke-to-black-american-illegal-immigrant-labor-needed-for-cotton-gin/

LeonDurham says

We'll see. I think both the recent polls are outliers. Cruz isn't up 9 and Beto isn't up 2. That's why it's best to average a group of polls from respected pollsters. Probably Cruz is up 3-4 pts...

Cruz will likely be up by 10 pts or so. Last time, 40% of Hispanics voted for him, and this special election shows that something is changing in at least TX rural Hispanic vote.
I personally will not vote for Cruz because he is a religious nut (or pretends to be one, which guarantees him extra Hispanic votes), and will not vote for O'Rourke also since election of people like him will turn our state into CA, and no one needs that.

dr6B says

Cruz will likely be up by 10 pts or so. Last time, 40% of Hispanics voted for him, and this special election shows that something is changing in at least TX rural Hispanic vote.
I personally will not vote for Cruz because he is a religious nut (or pretends to be one, which guarantees him extra Hispanic votes), and will not vote for O'Rourke also since election of people like him will turn our state into CA, and no one needs that.

We'll see. No offense, but I think the average of good polls is probably a better indicator than your opinion.

Honestly, I imagine the Dems want polls to show Cruz with a 9 point lead. That might keep some of the national Republican money out of Texas...

LeonDurham says

We'll see. No offense, but I think the average of good polls is probably a better indicator than your opinion.

Honestly, I imagine the Dems want polls to show Cruz with a 9 point lead. That might keep some of the national Republican money out of Texas...

No offense taken.

In last few TX special elections R's have done well. Unless bottom falls out of economy here (meaning oil prices drop, exactly as Trump wants), status quo will likely be preserved. Low Trump election numbers in TX were result of him being a fucking orange godless Yankee.

LeonDurham says

Can you detail his policies that lead you to this conclusion?

Sure.

- Pro Sanctuary City
- Anti-gun
- Pro - abortion
- Publicly supported Crapernick's Kneeling displays

Not least of all, Soros has dedicated millions to Texas, and FEC filings actually show Beta is receiving money from Soros.

So far, not working quite as planned since Dims lost a district they held for over a century in a place where Killary won by by near double digits.

RCP has Beta down 4.5 points, the reality is probably closer to 6-7.

lol--

So anti gun is SJW?
Pro abortion is SJW?
Free speech is now SJW?

dr6B says

Low Trump election numbers in TX were result of him being a fucking orange godless Yankee.

That's definitely possible. But his opponent was also a fucking orange godless Yankee too. Well except for the orange part.

Waving your dick in public isn’t free speech, it’s stupid.

LeonDurham says

lol--

So anti gun is SJW?
Pro abortion is SJW?
Free speech is now SJW?

FortWayne says

Waving your dick in public isn’t free speech, it’s stupid.

Yep.. And what does that have to do with the price of tea in China?

LeonDurham says

That's definitely possible. But his opponent was also a fucking orange godless Yankee too. Well except for the orange part.

I'd say that there are fewer Yankee-haters among Hillary voters relative to Trump voters. In my neighborhood, which predictably votes R, there were zero Trump signs and one or 2 Hillary signs. It was as if everyone was ashamed of voting for him. Now they seem to like him.

In previous elections, there were tens of Romney signs and quite a few Obama signs.

LeonDurham says

lol--

So anti gun is SJW?
Pro abortion is SJW?
Free speech is now SJW?

Yes, quacks like a SJW, is an SJW, along with the kneeling anthem love, and Soros money Beta is padding his wallet with.

AntiOcasioCortez says

Before or after Beto made the remark to an African-American that Illegal Aliens are needed to feed the cotton gin?

Whew. That's not going to help his 5 point (more like 7-9 point) deficit.