patrick.net

Onvacation says

alarmists

Try to contradict the science, not a straw man mythical alarmist.

YesYNot says

Onvacation says

One degree over a century is hardly measurable over natural variation.

Not true.

So what is the margin of error in these worldwide temperature measurements?

What's more important for this, precision or accuracy? And why?

Onvacation says

So what is the margin of error in these worldwide temperature measurements?

YesYNot says

What's more important for this, precision or accuracy?

I don't know is a valid answer.

Unless you do know. Do you?

So it's actually 1/1000 of a degree accuracy and they had a super calibrated thermometer that allowed us to know KNOW the worlds average temperature at the turn of the 20th century.

That was sarcasm.

Any source I give you will reject so do your own research and get back to us with YOUR results.

Thanks for helping me illustrate the ridiculousness of the cataclysmic AGW alarmists

Onvacation says

YesYNot says

What's more important for this, precision or accuracy?

I don't know is a valid answer.

Unless you do know. Do you?

Yes. Precision is easier to come by and more important when comparing two years. Do you know the difference between precision and accuracy.

Does anyone have an answer for the margin of error for the one degrree rise of global temp over the last century? I am thinking that 1/10 of 1 percent seems way too low.

Onvacation says

margin of error

I'm trying to see if you have much of an understanding of error before proceeding. You don't answer any questions about it, though. Not much point in discussing if we cannot establish some vocabulary.

Onvacation says

Even if each one could measure down to a thousandth of a degree there would still be some inaccuracy. These inaccuracies accumulate.

Inaccuracies do not accumulate when you take more and more measurements. If the error is random and normal, then the error of the mean decreases as you take more measurements in a very well known manner. It decreases with the square root of the number of measurements you take. So, if you take 100 measurements, you decrease the error by roughly 10 times. That means 100 thermometers with 0.01 degrees of accuracy will give you an average to 0.001 degrees accuracy. If you have 10,000 measurements, you can get 0.0001 degrees accuracy.
Measuring global average temperature with 10,000 spots doesn't produce this accuracy, because you are measuring different values in different places. However, the random error in each thermometer will decrease as I described.
Non-random error will often produce problems with accuracy, but not precision. Precision has to do with repeatability, not absolute accuracy. You are saying that it is not possible to know that one year is hotter than another year. Knowing this doesn't require knowing the absolute accuracy. It requires knowing how precise the method is (that is, how repeatable it is). That's why I asked the question to see what your knowledge of the subject was.
Further, a scientist will not say that one year was hotter than another with 100% accuracy. They will calculate the probability that one year was hotter. If that probability is greater than 95%, they will typically say that the result is significant. You will often find this expressed as p less than 0.05 in journals. That means that the probability of the opposite is less than 0.05 (5%). That is still not 100% proof, but it is an arbitrary cutoff that scientists use to communicate significance. In any case, you are trying to discredit an idea based on the way that something was communicated in the news, which is kind of silly in my opinion. Further, it doesn't really matter if we are 100% sure that 2016 was 0.04 degrees warmer than 2015. What we know is that 2015 and 2016 were the hottest years on record to the best of our knowledge. That is what is most important to know. Furthermore, to the best of our knowledge 2016 was warmer than 2015. But that is not really all that important. Global warming theory does not predict that each year will be successively warmer than the previous. It just means that we are on a long term trend where the globe is getting warmer much faster than the earth generally warms or cools. Furthermore, we know why this is happening.

Gentle Reader,

I'm from New Orleans. Flooding has always been a problem. Katrina should not have been a surprise. No, I won't live there anymore because of the risk. Yes, they replaced the older levees with huge new ones. I'm not sure they will help, since the real problem is the salt marsh depletion between NOLA and the sea.

Again, this is nothing new.

Regards,
Roidy

YesYNot says

Global warming theory does not predict that each year will be successively warmer than the previous. It just means that we are on a long term trend where the globe is getting warmer much faster than the earth generally warms or cools. Furthermore, we know why this is happening.

Thanks I knew you would have a well thought out explanation.

I still question the basic premise of catastrophic AGW and the calculations that the alarmist used to arrive at the conclusion that the the world is heating out of control.

How accurate were the readings taken with bucket and thermometer last century? I find it hard to believe that they were accurate within a few degrees much less a fraction of a degree.

I also question the way the old data is adjusted long after the fact of measurement. If the measurements were not accurate at the time of measurement how can we be sure they are accurate after fudge factors are added?

I don't think I will ever be convinced that the whole world temperature can be measured within a tiny fraction of a degree but I appreciate your efforts at "enlightening the ignorant".

Why doesn't everyone who lives in flood prone areas do this:

Roidy says

I'm not sure they will help, since the real problem is the salt marsh depletion between NOLA and the sea.

Is there some reason why they aren't dredging up dirt from the gulf to fix this?

In a different thread Booger suggested infilling parts of New Orleans, but I suspect that dredging is the only locally available dirt in sufficient quantities and I'm not sure that that's even the type of dirt that you can readily build on (since I'm not THAT type of engineer). But I suspect that it's perfectly good dirt for recreating extra space to grow tress on between the levies and the gulf. If it's possible to do beach restoration, why not forest and swamp restoration

Onvacation says

that the alarmist used to arrive at the conclusion that the the world is heating out of control.

Stick to reading what scientists write. It really is a long term problem with no obvious and easy solutions, and it is not a conspiracy theory perpetrated by selfish scientists.

Onvacation says

How accurate were the readings taken with bucket and thermometer last century?

The measurement were not as accurate or prevalent back then. However, that isn't the biggest issue. The biggest issue is understanding and quantifying sources of systematic error that change over time, as those can have a big impact on the plots of temperature versus time. The most well known source of this type of error is the heat island effect. That is, the population has grown around places where temperatures were measured years ago. In cities, there is a lot of blacktop and perhaps for other reasons, the temperature in cities is higher than it would have been if that spot were still rural. People can measure this effect and correct for it. The thing is, the correction decreases the measured temperature increase over time. So, the scientists are correcting the data in a way that makes the temperature increase seem smaller. They are not doing it for any ulterior motive. They are doing it to offset a known measurable effect and make the data more accurate.

There are lots of obvious reasons why someone might measure something and make adjustments instead of using the measured value. For example, if I am going to cut wood to make a 2x4, I might measure the moisture content and adjust the cut width so that the 2x4 was the right size after drying. If I were going to pay for a bushel of corn, I might measure the moisture content, and correct the weight based on how wet the corn was. So, changing a measurement based on known factors is not fudging. It's just correcting for known variances.

zzyzzx says

Why doesn't everyone who lives in flood prone areas do this:

I hope those support sticks go right through the first floor uninterrupted. Otherwise, that thing is in desperate need of some cross bracing. It would also be nice if they cut those beams into the supports. You cannot even build a deck like that in the county I live in.

I wonder how much of a homeowners insurance discount they get for doing that (build on stilts)?

Onvacation says

I find it hard to believe that they were accurate within a few degrees much less a fraction of a degree

I find it hard to believe that in 1972 we knew the speed of light to be 0.2997924562 gigameters / s to an accuracy of 0.000000001 gigameters/s accuracy. But, despite the difficulty of even imagining that speed, many clever individuals found out how to do it. What's more interesting is that an astronomer named Romer estimated it to within 25% in 1676 by measuring the eclipse times of one of Jupiter's moons. Although it is hard for me to imagine making any of a huge number of giant historical scientific discoveries, I know that they in fact happened. Furthermore, when enough very bright minds are focused on a problem, we can achieve an amazing level of understanding of both what is going on and how well we understand it.

YesYNot says

So, the scientists are correcting the data

I thought scientists analyzed data? If the data is wrong shouldn't it be thrown out?

YesYNot says

So, changing a measurement based on known factors is not fudging. It's just correcting for known variances.

How can the climate scientists know what those sailors with buckets and thermometers did wrong to make their measurements inaccurate?

Onvacation says

If the data is wrong shouldn't it be thrown out?

The data are not wrong. This is just the nature of science. You learn as much as you can from the tools on hand. See the history of measuring the speed of light, which I referenced earlier. Anyway, every time you calibrate an instrument, you are adjusting the values of the measurements that you end up taking with that instrument.

Let's say you get new tires for your car that are a little bigger than the original equipment. Do you adjust the data coming from your speedometer or just throw it away and guess how fast you are going? If you are smart, you have the speedometer recalibrated or just make a mental note that the you will be going a X percent faster than the reading on the dash. If you are less industrious, you would just throw the data out. Fortunately, scientists are an industrious lot, and make use of it.

YesYNot says

See the history of measuring the speed of light, which I referenced earlier. Anyway, every time you calibrate an instrument, you are adjusting the values of the measurements that you end up taking with that instrument.

There is a big difference between the speed of light, a universal constant and the temperature of a bucket of sea water measured with a thermometer a century ago.YesYNot says

Let's say you get new tires for your car that are a little bigger than the original equipment.

I did. I needed the extra ground clearance.

YesYNot says

Anyway, every time you calibrate an instrument, you are adjusting the values of the measurements that you end up taking with that instrument.

Thats just it. Hundreds of different thermometers used on different ships. I understand what you said about accuracy and precision. I am questioning the accuracy of these old temp measurements.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.ocean-sci.net/9/683/2013/os-9-683-2013.pdf&ved=0ahUKEwi7ruvokcbVAhVI4yYKHX6ZB7EQFggjMAA&usg=AFQjCNHBpS1_TauZm4TWpSlvMRXcmSSQAA

There is a C02 increase before warming? Every chart that hasn't be manipulated shows this as true. C02 also comes out of solution as it warms that is very basic science.
It has to get warmer before there is a C02 increase.....

beershrine says

There is a C02 increase before warming? Every chart that hasn't be manipulated shows this as true. C02 also comes out of solution as it warms that is very basic science.

It has to get warmer before there is a C02 increase.....

Ya gotta link your facts so the alarmists can call BS on ya.

Onvacation says

Without co2 we would be a lifeless iceball floating around another star in the Coyl

This is true. I'm having a hard time understanding how you could believe this, yet think we could double the level of co2 without causing a big increase in temperature.

zzyzzx says

Is there some reason why they aren't dredging up dirt from the gulf to fix this?

Gentle Reader,

I've fished and boated in the salt marshes south and southeast of New Orleans for most of my life. The amount of marsh subsidence is gigantic. There isn't enough dirt to backfill this. Why this happened is from two man-made occurrences.

1) Oil companies tearing of the marsh looking and drill oil and natural gas.

2) The US Army Corp of Engineers built a levee system to protect the city and surrounding areas from flooding. This prevented the Mississippi River from flooding and depositing silt and dirt from the upper reaches of the Mississippi. No deposits, no natural filling, the salt marsh subsides.

This shit isn't brain surgery.

Regards,
Roidy

The solution is evolution. ( to global warming )
Mankind has evolved and adapted over the centuries to most everything mother nature has thrown at them.
No reason to believe we won't this time either.
Already I can feel fragments of freon forming and flowing through my flatulence...

YesYNot says

I'm having a hard time understanding how you could believe this, yet think we could double the level of co2 without causing a big increase in temperature.

Mitigating factors. More co2 means more plant growth. More heat means more clouds to block heat. How do you know that more co2 won't turn the earth into a tropical like rain forest?

Again if you want to argue we are killing the planet with overpopulation and pollution, I agree.

BlueSardine says

The solution is evolution. ( to global warming )

Mankind has evolved and adapted over the centuries to most everything mother nature has thrown at them.

BINGO!

If we, the people could stop all the tribalism and warfare we could ALL live in paradise.

Unfortunately the world has not worked that way.