patrick.net

BayArea says

Johny says

you can buy chinese knockoff, 90% of the features of gopro for 25% of the price..

I keep going back and forth with GPRO... It sells products that are considered to be best in class, but like you said, are they 4x better than the next best thing? Hardly.

Similar to Nikon and Canon, improvements in smartphone camera capability have done it's share to reduce demand for GPRO.

Wont be long before all the Gopro technology and more will be incorporated into the iPhone.

Logan Mohtashami says

MASI my favorite pick just hit a new all time high today! :-)

In that case, you get to buy the beer.

Strategist says

In that case, you get to buy the beer.

Yardhouse 8:00PM I will be there if you will...

Big bock of shares at 19.90 20.61 and 21.26 I can afford you 3 drinks a uber ride home

Logan Mohtashami says

MASI my favorite pick just hit a new all time high today! :-)

At what point do you take your money and bail on MASI?

BayArea says

At what point do you take your money and bail on MASI?

I have sold at 40 , 44, 48 and going to sell some tomorrow at 52

I have another big block around 37.38

I invest some each month regardless of prices

It's 100% outperformed my expectation since they won the lawsuit against Phillps and got 487 million .

It's a keep but I have and will sell

BAC, JPM, GOOG, PG, COST

I don't day trade, I just buy and hold and hold and hold...

UNXl which shot from 40 cents to 2.76

Spec play sold at 1.70 - 2.69

Thesis for selling as I wrote as that they would have to do a secondary, so they did priced at 1.50 and got back again today, but much smaller position than what I started.

Playing with the house money now

52.12! MASI

Ok now I sound like a pusher here, I will stop ;-)

I need to take a look to see what the market has done historically during the 5mo leading up to an election...

Logan, lets take a look and compare notes.

BayArea says

I need to take a look to see what the market has done historically during the 5mo leading up to an election...

Logan, lets take a look and compare notes.

i heard somewhere it goes up during Presidential elections.

BayArea says

Logan, lets take a look and compare notes.

Break out to new highs and then we consolidate, regardless of the Presidential timing

2 Factors here

1. Oil crash is done, should get some revisions to the upside in Q4 2016 or Q1 2017

2. We are late in the economic cycle but the Fed hasn't needed to fight inflation and labor cost are rising but they can be managed for now.

Come on, guys. Probabilities. My opinion, For next 3 years, SP 500, 50% stay flat, 30% gain 10%, 20% lose 50%. Make your own decisions.

nolongerloveblack says

Come on, guys. Probabilities. My opinion, For next 3 years, SP 500, 50% stay flat, 30% gain 10%, 20% lose 50%. Make your own decisions.

For the next 3 years:
50% chance gain 40%
50% chance gain 25%

Strategist says

For the next 3 years:

50% chance gain 40%

50% chance gain 25%

Remember when I told you to get back into the Builders and KB Homes in Late Jan - Feb! would have been a nice additional add on to the portfolio

Logan Mohtashami says

Remember when I told you to get back into the Builders and KB Homes in Late Jan - Feb! would have been a nice additional add on to the portfolio

That you did. Home builders have finally started their move. There is no stopping it now.

Ironman says

nolongerloveblack says

stay flat,

The market has been flat since the Fall of 2014. There's a few here that drink the kool-aid and expect new highs with nothing to support it except ZIRP.

It's time for the next move up. Don't you want to get rich?

Ironman says

Strategist says

It's time for the next move up. Don't you want to get rich?

Sure, show me the fundamentals that will make that happen.

Low rates
Recovering Economy
Lower unemployment
Housing recovery
End of Obama's term.

We will hit a all time high very soon

No #QE no #ZIRP No #NIRP

#USA

Ironman says

Strategist says

Low rates


Recovering Economy


Lower unemployment


Housing recovery


End of Obama's term.

Well, you got 2 out of 5 right.... That's a failing grade in Marcus' math class.

It's easy to get an "A" in Marcus' math class:
Obama for third term
Hillary for President
Bernie for President
More illegal immigration
Triple teacher salaries.

Actually, I misspoke, if you count div. we are at a all time high

In terms of the economic theme that could give the cycle a slight push, as oil as risen, trade will look a bit better

Ticker symbol HP is the only oil play that I run on .. mid to low 40's is where I was pushing here, took some off at 57 now it's at 67, Let it ride.

Ironman says

Finally, you're admitting it.... took you long enough...

This is true, I should have said earlier counting Div. we are already at all time highs

arlp - sold too early right before it hit 15. I got in below 12 on average. I think the energy rally is not that strong.

nac - at this point it's way too high; it was a good buy last summer, You are betting that the FED will restart QE and start buy municipal bonds. If California goes into recession, I suspect this thing can sell off 20% easily. 4 years of yield.

The stock market is very bubblicious because of ZIRP. Just be very careful.

I have a day job and majority of my income comes from W2. I understand that I do NOT have time to gain any edge on individual stock picking or doing trend following and gauge market sentiment. I do know it is more important to avoid large losses than trying to get rich fast, so I am obsessed about NOT losing money. Because I do NOT have edge on analyzing short term market moves, I rely on long term reliable metrics on large indices (as opposed to individual stocks) that has good correlation with 10 year returns which is long enough to be more measurable/predictable. I guess that makes me more like a value guy, but on large indices. Since this discussion starts with 401K money, I guess it is appropriate to do it passive and estimate 10 year returns. Remember if we are in year 2000, the return is roughly 0 if you go forward to year 2010. Reason is simple, the valuation metrics of year 2000 is too high. You can bring up all kinds of arguments like election cycles, individual sector inventions, or various metrics on economy, such as employment, inventory, housing .... but those short term noises seldom matter if you zoom out to 10 years, and the only thing that historically proven to have correlation with 10 year return is valuation metrics such as CAPE10, Tobin Q, Market CAP / GDP .... My opinion is that current valuation is like year 2000, so 10years later, the return is likely (90% probability) to be zero. I am NOT sure how the market will fluctuate within next 10 years, but I am 90% confident that after 10 years, S&P would be roughly where we are now. Those 3 year S7P move probabilities are just my opinion which is largely a result of the combination of valuation, trend, sentiment which I am NOT an expert on.

Throwing ARRY, a biotech stock - high risk as with any but with real revenues from collaborations - into the mix. Currently priced at $3.50/share.

Logan Mohtashami says

Actually, I misspoke, if you count div. we are at a all time high

How's the outlook now? New all-time highs?

donny says

How's the outlook now? New all-time highs?

Still looks good, now that oil is up, trade and a lot areas that have been killed due to collapse of oil should look better for Q4 2016 and Q1 2017

Market is really not showing any topping action, even though this is the longest period where a new high hasn't been created, this recent move in the Vix is big but to a small decline

Bears got no game,

BayArea says

And what are you hoping happens with TWTR?

Recent push in TWTR stocks since we talked about is more speculation even their investment in Sound is just more speculation for a sell of the company.

I am buying it for that thesis but I do agree that can drive the stock price in the short term since MSFT bought Link

I like SHOP. I used to work for a competitor and all they ever seemed to talk about was Shopify, with good reason.

Not profitable, but revenue has been doubling year over year repeatedly.

Purely speculative, but I bought a small part of TSLA this afternoon after today's 10%+ dip following Musk's announcement of the offer to buy crippled Solar City. Planning on holding for a year

BayArea says

Purely speculative, but I bought a small part of TSLA this afternoon after today's 10%+ dip following Musk's announcement of the offer to buy crippled Solar City. Planning on holding for a year

so far so good... bought on June 22nd at $196.00. Time to bail or hold?

Are there any VIX experts in here (volatility/fear index)?

I'm looking at the historic prices and I've never seen it go below $9.31 (1993). However, I've heard investors say that plenty of people have lost 100% of their money by investing in VIX. How is that possible?

BayArea says

Are there any VIX experts in here (volatility/fear index)?

Historic Volatility of Volatility in the past week, similar to Aug '90, May '10, Oct '14, and Aug '15. $VIX

So many lazy brains. Askin' for stock tips on a housing forum.

Now I've seen it all.

junkmail says

So many lazy brains. Askin' for stock tips on a housing forum.

Now I've seen it all.

Mr. High and Mighty, nothing wrong with a little discussion and idea exchange is there?

Nope nuthing wrong with that. Just saying... cherry picking individual stocks when you might not know what your doing is a dangerous game. Be smart, be careful and do your research.

BayArea says

Are there any VIX experts in here (volatility/fear index)?

Volatility Index has dropped 39% thus far this week. 4-day biggest drop in history.

Logan Mohtashami says

Volatility Index has dropped 39% thus far this week. 4-day biggest drop in history

So how do we capitalize on a lack of volatility :-)