patrick.net

Ironman says

4 bed, 3 bath, 2558 sq. ft.

Taxes: $6,655

http://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Orange-County-CA/house_type/25623786_zpid/1286_rid/2-_beds/800000-900000_price/2941-3308_mp/featured_sort/33.661353,-117.626238,33.594603,-117.779017_rect/12_zm/0_mmm/

Hilarious that's my X fiance home model, goes for over 1 million in Nellie Gail Ranch

indigenous says

Will that change?

I am not a big believer on robots taking away home buyers, robots and technology impact the lower level economic food chain and still no one can show where technology and robots have killed the jobs in this chart

You did watch the video, it is only 15 minutes.

Soon will be talking about the election... speaking of which Mr. Clinton and my wife ;-)

Is that your idea of a smooth segue?

indigenous says

You did watch the video, it is only 15 minutes.

and technology will create new set of jobs as well, plus that duration period is way out there too. 30 years ago they said technology would take away jobs and never counted on medical device sector and social media as actual job sectors

A better thesis at least for me is that, the kind of new job sectors don't need that much employment in terms of numbers.

However, like all demographics, old people retire and younger workers take their place, the trend is important and trend still looks good for America

indigenous says

segue?

Just throwing out some political love, Trump is actually moving up on the $ pols which gives him even more cred to be the Republican choice

So you are saying that comparative advantage trumps the robot prediction?

Logan Mohtashami says

Just throwing out some political love, Trump is actually moving up on the $ pols which gives him even more cred to be the Republican choice

But not enough to beat Hillary I fear, those nasty demographics you talk about are not in the Donald's favor.

indigenous says

Donald's favor.

So far at this point I have Trump losing by 7 million and 332 E. Votes against Clinton

Logan Mohtashami says

So far at this point I have Trump losing by 7 million and 332 E. Votes against Clinton

How do you arrive at that conclusion? Not that the bookies disagree with you.

IOW learn me something,

indigenous says

How do you arrive at that conclusion? Not that the bookies disagree with you.

IOW learn me something,

Map out states 2012 to 2016 How those states will vote again, growing base for each party President Obama won by 5 million, take the key 6 and 7 States and how it looks like they will vote...

Trump, is a horrific general candidate because some Republicans won't vote for him, so add them up together... so far that's what I get

That is good work. Needless to say you see Hillary taking O hi O and Fla.

indigenous says

O hi O and Fla.

Rubio is the man, I think he could take FLA ... not sure on Ohio ....

Trump and Cruz just aren't popular general election people, however, Cruz would be much better than Trump, because Cruz is politically slick where Trump is just doing his thing for his ego

Would have to think Hillary on Ohio because of your demographics.

indigenous says

demographics.

90% of the labor force growth in the next decade are coming from Hispanics, the Republicans are killing themselves before demographics do

Hispanics vote democrat

indigenous says

Hispanics vote democrat

Not all, but majority yes and with this group of Republicans they're going to make very difficult for Hispanics to not vote democrat for the rest of the century

That does not bode well for the Rs for a very long time. If not for the King dollar this country would so be toast.

indigenous says

That does not bode well for the Rs for a very long time.

I see you as a Dana Rohrabacher guy

John Campbell or his replacement. Although strictly speaking they are both spendthrifts so I'm agin em.

Ironman says

The same thing could happen for Hillary/Bernie.

I wish you were right. But all of the bookies are saying it is going to be Hillary.

Another thing to keep in mind is women suffrage. Which Anne Coulter says was the beginning of the end.

indigenous says

Ironman says

The same thing could happen for Hillary/Bernie.

I wish you were right. But all of the bookies are saying it is going to be Hillary.

Hillary is the odds on favorite. The favorite does not always win.

Here are the $ Odds

https://primary.guide/

Ironman says

Only if the FBI doesn't get to her first...

Damn that would be sweet. If they do that to Martha Stewart over bullshit charges what could they do to Hillary?

Not much juice in this cycle, which was my core thesis back 2010, things will get better in years 2020-2024

We are almost done with the fall of home ownership

I was always tag lining 62.2%-62.7% being the real low, a lot of that has to due to foreclosures and short sales going against renter nation in this cycle.

With distress supplies down and we got as low as 63.4% in this cycle, the downside is limited at this point, in the next decade it decade it should be higher than what we have this cycle

A interesting note is that Boomers have downsized to apartments, That is still a big variable out their but for the most part the massive decline is done

Logan Mohtashami says

a lot of that has to due to foreclosures and short sales

a lot of that has to do with foreclosures and short sales

or

a lot of that was due to foreclosures and short sales

P N Dr Lo R says

a lot of that was due to foreclosures and short sales

Same thing in what I am trying to say

Where are all the Boomerang Buyers?

Well Chapter 7 aren't coming back anytime soon and Chapter 13 have to qualify with incomes and assets which is going to be a hard struggle for a lot of them.

Gen X got wiped out in the last cycle, so you took off the Grid a portion of the Move up buyers
Then on top of that you still have some Housing bubble debt in the system which in the interview I have explained limits the capacity of move up buyers

Demographics was the easy one, this one I still don't get why a lot people didn't understand this back in 2010... It's not a 1 to 1 ratio with demographics, we were a very young and old country lacking a lot middle game

All 3 together.. You got this ...

The reality that 2014/2015 years 6 and 7 of the economic cycle with rising inventory and lower rates have produced the 2 worst years on purchase applications ever recorded once adjusting to population and 2014 was the low point in the cycle headline as well

Betting markets, chances of winning the general election:
Clinton 53.2%
Rubio 13.6%
Trump 13%
Sanders 6.8%
Cruz 6.2%
http://bit.ly/22XBvEd