patrick.net

Your thinking is that although we have spent enough it wasn't on the right thongs?

Schiff would say the only true north on value is what somone willingly pays for something.

When you consider that there are, I'm guessing, 70 billion transactions a day. How could any agency possibly control something of this size?

indigenous says

Your thinking is that although we have spent enough it wasn't on the right thongs?

Schiff would say the only true north on value is what somone willingly pays for something.

When you consider that there are, I'm guessing, 70 billion transactions a day. How could any agency possibly control something of this size?

To be fair I think his answer was reasonably balanced and contained items that even opponents of too much government involvement could get on board with, For example it's better to get the government involved in the form of regulating and taxing (and in case of sex-workers protecting) marijuana and prostitution rather than staying involved in the form of criminalizing it.

Mel'l

Sorry I was adressing Roberto

I'm reading Schiff's book now.

I find it useful to argue these issues.

Ah Peter Schiff. The far-right's tribal leader.

The end is near! The end is near! Buy Gold! Buy Silver! Buy guns!

http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Zero_Hedge

indigenous says

Sorry I was adressing Roberto

So was I - I think he can give reasonable responses, with reason inversely proportional to the number of insults ;)

freak80 says

Ah Peter Schiff. The far-right's tribal leader.

The end is near! The end is near! Buy Gold! Buy Silver! Buy guns!

He is far from far right, fairly liberal on social issues. Maybe you can say the far-libertarian's tribal leader ;)

mell says

Maybe you can say the far-libertarian's tribal leader ;)

Fair enough. :-)

Peter Schiff can't be wrong. He's our tribal leader. Whatever he says is The Truth (tm).

freak80 says

Peter Schiff can't be wrong. He's our tribal leader. Whatever he says is The Truth (tm).

Of course he can be wrong and he is, but he is right far more often than our resident patnet armchair "economists" and their brazen empires ;)

egads101 says

so popularity = correctness. got it.

That's how all religions work. Including Austrian economics.

mell says

trying to bend basic math and promising great economic prosperity.

What do you mean?

mell says

Inflation is rampant and a huge problem

What? Where are you living right now? Zimbabwe?

freak80 says

mell says

trying to bend basic math and promising great economic prosperity.

What do you mean?

Talking about the realities of our runaway debt, purchasing power etc. instead of saying "it doesn't matter" and hoping that some economic breakthrough will usher in a new area of prosperity. I'm not interested in the US becoming Japan and believe it may be far worse than that since - at least for a while - Japan had a decent trade surplus and was always a strong exporter.

mell says

Talking about the realities of our runaway debt, purchasing power etc.

During a massive depression, it's probably a good thing to have deficit spending until the economy recovers. Once the economy recovers, the higher tax revenues can pay down the debt.

Or at least that's how it's supposed to work in theory.

Is our purchasing power decreasing? If wages aren't keeping up with inflation, it's probably the result of increased worker productivity going almost exclusively to the top 0.1%.

Also, during the last 30-35 years, labor has lost almost all of it's bargaining power with capital.

I'm not sure how economic libertarianism will make things better.

freak80 says

mell says

Inflation is rampant and a huge problem

What? Where are you living right now? Zimbabwe?

San Francisco, CA. Almost as bad!

freak80 says

During a massive depression, it's probably a good thing to have deficit spending until the economy recovers. Once the economy recovers, the higher tax revenues can pay down the debt.

I'd add IF you have the money saved from the good times, otherwise it is always a bad idea IMO.

mell says

San Francisco, CA. Almost as bad!

I was not aware of rampant inflation in San Francisco. It hasn't made the news. I guess the lack of reporting is part of the conspiracy.

I shop mostly at Trader Joe's.

And I'm house-sitting in Santa Cruz again, which is a great way to compare bills since I buy the same stuff each time.

The big inflationary thing has been bacon, I think that went from 1lb to 12oz for the same price.

Otherwise, not seeing much inflation at TJs this past year. Well under 5%.

freak80 says

mell says

San Francisco, CA. Almost as bad!

I was not aware of rampant inflation in San Francisco. It hasn't made the news. I guess the lack of reporting is part of the conspiracy.

There is some reporting though - haven't you heard that house prices have gone up manically and only will continue to go up forever in the bay area? I'd call that reported inflation ;)

Don't forget the effects of last summer's Midwestern megadrought.

Unfortunately, precipitation extremes will get worse as the planet continues to warm.

The labor force participation rate is at 32 year low

The reason unemployment rate is lower is because fewer people are in the labor force

Even bernanke admits that the current unemployment rate overstates the health of the labor market - just another reason the fed didnt taper
All the main reasons are discussed here http://smaulgld.com/whats-next-for-the-fed-no-exit/

Bellingham Bill says

I shop mostly at Trader Joe's.

And I'm house-sitting in Santa Cruz again, which is a great way to compare bills since I buy the same stuff each time.

The big inflationary thing has been bacon, I think that went from 1lb to 12oz for the same price.

Otherwise, not seeing much inflation at TJs this past year. Well under 5%.

Anything 2% and above qualifies as significant for me and way too much (I'd shoot for 0.5%, maybe 1% max. if you have to have some). If you take a starting salary for a 20 year old and then compound those 2% and see how much they'd have to make by 40 or 50, you will see that most people lag here and wages have a hard time keeping up even with what is considered by the masters of fiat a "low" or "subdued" number. Gotta flip some stocks/shacks to stay in the game ;)

StillLooking says

So Now you are claiming strong employment and no inflation

partisans wishing to slag on things look at the participation rate and don't understand it's counting people age 65+.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=mNe

is a better indicator of employment.

Not so great, but there has been recovery, and definitely the trend of 2008-2009 has been reversed.

We're still 5M under the 2008 peak, which of course sucks, but unemployment has gotten better, not worse.

Largely thanks to the Fed, since Congress has done jack shit since 2010.

mell says

nd then compound those 2% and see how much they'd have to make by 40 or 50

My food costs $200/M. 30 years of 2% inflation would put that to $360.

Landlord is going to take a lot more than $160/mo over 30 years. Shit, that's been some annual rent increases already.

The dollar is stronger n in 2009 when he made this prediction.

Relative to what?
The dollar index?
Who does that matter to?

Dollar strength/weakness, to me, means

Strong dollar = things I buy take less dollars
Weak dollar = things I buy take more dollars

Name five things you bought in 2009 that you can buy here in 2013, with less dollars

mell says

Anything 2% and above qualifies as significant for me and way too much

That's the fed's target inflation rate.

I guess that's part of the conspiracy.

errc says

Name five things you bought in 2009 that you can buy here in 2013, with less
dollars

When in 2009? Right at the worst of the great recession? Interesting you picked that year.

LED TV
Smartphone
Bluray player
Housing
US Treasuries

Why not 2007?
Mortgage backed securities

Why not 2011?
Gold

CiC,

Would *any* amount of evidence convince you to change your views?

The whole "fed will cause (or is causing) massive inflation" meme is BS. The data proves it.

Sure, maybe the Fed should do things differently or reduce QE. But they are NOT causing severe inflation right now. It's just not happening.

CiC,

Why do you believe there is severe inflation going on? How does that belief benefit you in any way?

I can understand why people desperately cling to religious beliefs...it's a way of coping with the fear of death or loss of a loved one.

But economics isn't religion. Then again, maybe it is for some people.

freak80 says

But they are NOT causing severe inflation right now. It's just not happening.

What's missing from the hyperinflationist thesis is HOW the masses can PAY for this rise in goods and services.

They can't, so there won't be hyperinflation, not until we more closely integrate our economy with the 3B Chinese/Indians and give them a lot more of our money to spend.

Weimar happened because of an intentional wage-price spiral, goods couldn't stay on the shelves more than minutes.

The 1970s happened due to full employment, as the baby boom and women's-lib arrived at the same time to double both household incomes and household formation. Inflationary!

One thing though, imports are deflationary, and we've enjoyed a lot of free imports since the 1990s.

Exports are inflationary (domestic workers get wages but have no goods to show for it, the goods were exported overseas), and we need to do a lot more of that.

Regarding the chatter about inflation:

You are seeing the inflation at the high end of the market think, Christies, Sotheby's, real estate. Additionally the banks have a record excess reserve funds which they park in their own accounts uncle Ben is paying them interest on the money parked there out of the market place.

The CPI are cooked books, I would say at retail the inflation is running at 10%.

By definition inflation is an increase in the money supply. After the FED adding trillions of dollars to the money supply there IS inflation.

Call it Crazy says

A trip to the grocery store is up maybe 25% from last year.

Is it really?

http://www.ers.usda.gov/datafiles/Food_Price_Outlook/Food_Price_Outlook/CPIforecast.xls

All the essentials have had strong inflationary pressure. Who gives a fuck about flat screen TVs? You need babysitters, health care, housing, healthy groceries (not processed shit), utilities, education, not flat screen TVs to watch American Idol on and waste away your productivity. With or without a job you are better off without a TV ad most other electronic entertainment shit.

egads101 says

mell says

you posted that idiotic chart before, dimwit.... Kid's activities up 118% in 2 years sure thing! paintball prices doubled... kart racing doubled...

base your life decisions on made up crap if you want to!

Ah yes, the "oracle" who is your trusted source of inflation as opposed to mint.com - got it! Oh wait.. ;)

Rice is considerably cheaper than 2008, when all you heard on Alex Jones and other gloomy doomy websites was to hoard rice.

However, Mell does have a point. While kid's activities is nonsense, middle class markers like Health Care and Tuition have been skyrocketing. Not as much as in the above chart, but I'd say it's not nuts that tuition and health care is much more expensive than 30 years ago, wayyyyyy outpacing wages.

CiC said: So tell me, what do you have as a side dish when you're eating your natural gas
Methane (from natural gas) -> steam reformation (for hydrogen) ->Haber process spits out nitrogen fertilizer. It is estimated that half of the protein within human beings is made of nitrogen that was originally fixed by this process from Wikipedia.

Natural gas, it's what's for dinner.

I should point out that many folks believe that natural gas IS one of the main reasons we'll see an industrial and manufacturing renaissance in this country. It's both a feedstock for industrial processes and a low priced supply of energy for heating and generating electricity.... but otherwise, ya know, it's irrelevant...

Bellingham Bill says

Weimar happened because of an intentional wage-price spiral, goods couldn't
stay on the shelves more than minutes.

Well, that and war reperations. No?