patrick.net

We may see inflation here and there due to temporary resource mismanagement and regulation mishaps. However, wage is not going anywhere in the long term due to globalization.

Stagflation will be the reality.

1. cats rule, dogs drool :-D

Actually, I do see a recession coming. The inflationary pressure will be limited to global commodities. Deflation is the bigger picture.

I interviewed the noted economist, Ravi Batra, out of Southern Methodist University, on my radio show, a few months ago.

He coined the term "jobless recovery" amongst other more apocalytic
references.

He said he thought it would be (hyper?)inflation, then deflation...That's his scenario, for what it's worth or worthless...

Either way, it doesn't look like the landing will be vary soft for some
unfortunate souls. Perhaps the illusion of softness at first, then
the housing tower may fall after all...?

Yikes!

The government, with its $3T of debt, would prefer inflation.

And they print the money.

So my bet is on inflation.

Looks like Helicopter Ben will be nominated as the next Fed chief. Inflation mode everyone.

Looks like Helicopter Ben will be nominated as the next Fed chief. Inflation mode everyone.

What about those foreign holders of US debt? Wouldn't that devalue their loans?
I'm pretty rusty on economics, but I always suspect an upside/downside scenario.
Something tells me there is no escape.

Something tells me there is no escape.

"No escape" is right. Let's wait and see.

Need to focus on something more than just a roof over head.

Like the long period groundswell hammering the Central Coast?

No Fuchs yet. :(

We are permanently screwed and there’s no crash that will save us....no light at the end of the tunnel

sounds like a Nirvana song, eh? I don't see things so darkly for the future, more of a short-term screw the investors, than screw everyone. Of course, people that fuxor their finances only have themselves to blame.

Those of you that think you can buy a waterfront property in Seattle with a dock for your boat etc… for $800k, you are wrong. More like 2 million.

Or Bellevue prices. $2M gets you far far more up there than where I live. But--I think you can get a nice Bainbridge home still under $800K. And, if you look hard you'll find something better for that.

What motivation do I have.

There are no guarantees--are there? Each of us makes the most of what we have.
Btw, I grew up living in one of those waterfront, country-club communities on the sound.
I don't have that here, but I'm not going to let it get me down.

We checked Las Cuatro Milpas out on Saturday. Sorry to say that it was a disappointment.

Sorry to hear that, well if you're ever up on the Central Coast I can recommend at least 3 very good, very authentic places. The place in OB is Mariscos (seafood). Good, but not the carne asada, carnitas type of place. I agree that nothing beats the taco carts in PV.

H.Z., if you just want some really good chow, try The Liar's Club in MB, on Mission Bay Blvd. Killer burgers, the fuego burger is amazing, I'd recommend no greater than a "5" (1-10 scale). They have a really good assortment of grub, seared ahi sandwiches etc, family friendly if you go during the day. Gets a bit rowdy in the evenings.

I agree that nothing beats the taco carts in PV.

I had the best Mexican (taqueria) food of my life in a bus station mini-cafeteria in Chetumal, QR. It was one of those places where you don't really want to eat there, but the vending machines look expired, and the idea of walking a few blocks is even less appealing.

Why is that?? I lived in SF for seven years. I have my fave Mission taquerias, for sure, but nothing quite like that bus station cafeteria. Some part of it has to have been hunger and greatly exceeded expectations, but...the only thing that came close was the taco truck we used to drive to, out I-80 near Hercules (from SF...it was that good.)

And of course, the Tamale Lady who always seemed to arrive at exactly the right time, with her little cooler full of hot tamales...

There must be some circumstantial magic about taqueria food.

BTW, next person who creates a thread... PLEASE nuke the "first post" crap!

hope your cat comes back Surfer-X

Thank you! Me too. I'm caning him when he comes back.

Has anyone actually started to think that this kind of lifestyle erosion for Americans is going to stick?

Honestly, it is not a surprise. Let me reason why. When I used to live in France and Japan, it always amazed me how much people had to pay to get by. France had an unemployment rate of close to 15% (!!), fresh grads couldn't get a job, and all they could do was to pay well over 1/3 of their monthly salary to share a tiny roach-infested apartment with friends. That was around 1990. The only cheap item in France was wine, everything else was more expensive than the US. Then I had a summer study session in Japan, again, people were paying USD 10 for a bowl of noodle (1991 dollar) that oculdn't even suffice as a light lunch. The price in Japan was just so out of whack that I started to question how average Japanese carried on with their lives, but they did nevertheless. Most of my family lives in Australia, the tax rate is higher, the pay is lower, the urban housing affordability is as bad as us, and the price of electronics and white goods is just outrageously expensive even in absolute terms. Why did this happen? The only explanation I had was because the world has been subsidizing the American lifestyle for a long long time and now they are about to say no to the generous subsidy.

One thing Americans take for granted, coming from an ex-foreigner, is how cheap things are in this country, from gas to produce, from housing to cars. Everything is SOOOO cheap in this country compared to the rest of the world, in absolute and comparative terms. Since we've been squandering away wealth so much, I won't be surprised that at some point our lifestyle will start to be "globalized" as well (read: eroding).

Be it inflation or deflation, I believe that the American lifestyle as we know it will be gone forever. Welcome to the rest of the world.

Anymore these days, I find myself shopping more and more at the 99 Cent store, where I actually got my little sister a China-made, scientific
calculator for a buck a little while back.

I think everything in the store is made in China, except for the candy...the candy's made in Mexico...

Thank god for Saver's thrift store...that's where I get my golf shirts, some brand new, as well as other sundry items...perhaps a slightly used pair of
patent leather shoes or a belt or tie...for a few bucks.

That's how I'm making it and paying off (barely) my college loans...

Just got my Allstate car insurance bill today. They upped it 10% a month out of friggen' nowhere. Without warning. I've got a perfect driving record. Go figure.

Holy sh-t...I think Seattledude's anaysis is pretty right on!

"...would he really think when he hit some magic number, say 40 grit, that lion’s going to let him know he’s getting close by yawning once and hitting the snooze button?"

LOL.

Scratched iPods lead to lawsuit

So it seems that one can be sued for selling products that are easily scratched.

Just try to imagine when housing prices are "scratched". ;)

Eh, whatevs...

So our generation isn't going to have anything handed to us. Big fricken deal. We've known or suspected this for twenty years.

Are we really reduced to jealous whining when other people win the economic cycle lottery?

Seriously. Don't kid yourself that we would have made more enlightened decisions if we had been The Ones. We wouldn't have. It just doesn't work that way. We have the opportunity to be wiser than the foreborn, because the lessons of their more egregious mistakes are still fresh. But the world, the economy, politics, social structures...everything is much more complicated than it was a generation ago. There will be new lessons to be learned, as soon as the regressive mystics relinquish power (by vote, by fiat, or by death). Don't be so sure that we'll get it right either.

O tempores! O mores!

**Yawn**

Ditto

'...And when I called my “fast, friendly Farmers Agent” and asked why the rates went up, you will never guess what I was told: “Just inflation I guess” ….'

"I am serious. He really said that."

Yes, yes. I can believe it. I can suspend me disbelief, even.

I can believe it because after seeing the moral violence of the
dotcom mania in action and masochistic fiscal hysteria of the
housing bubble tragedy as it unfolds, I can just about believe
anything...

He's probably just a poor gen-x slob like me, with a
masters degree, caught between low wages, high housing
prices, real inflation ignored...looking both ways,
like a cross-eyed buffoon for what the fvck just hit us
and what the fvck's coming down the tracks like a freight train!

Lookout below!

Wouldn't it be nice to even have a 5% wage increase/raise
as a sort of half-ass attempt to offset the increase in prices
of everyday sh-t, like the blue-collar baloney sammiches I pack
into my retro, Star Wars lunchpail, and my gourmet Pork&Beans dinners?

& beans?

The boomer are really the cause for everything wrong these days.

You're posting this to here and "Bay Area Rebirth".

Pick one, so we don't bloat the thread needlessly.

Existing home sale report is out.

National median is down month-to-month. Prices are down 8% in the west from last month.

Inventory level is up nearly 20% year-over-year.

The boomer are really the cause for everything wrong these days.

Pick one, so we don’t bloat the thread needlessly.

If you do want to bloat a thread, please do so in "Huh?". There is no thread bubble!

seattledude, is homeownership the only motivation of your life? Shouldn't the motivation be something bigger, like jet ownership?

"Shouldn’t the motivation be something bigger, like jet ownership?"

Or blimp ownership?

Or blimp ownership?

Or a blimp converted to mobile condos?

"Or a blimp converted to mobile condos?"

But then someone will think to start charging for air space, and then California will figure out a way to tax the air space. And then there will be an air estate bubble, and many birds will die on account of flying into blimps.

Or a blimp converted to mobile condos?

Ocean view blimp condo with granite countertops. Starting at low 700's.

"Ocean view blimp condo with granite countertops. Starting at low 700’s."

Lowly land owners will get pissed that the blimp owners are obscuring their views and blocking out the sun.

And then there will be an air estate bubble, and many birds will die on account of flying into blimps.

And air-realtors will say "blimp prices never come down, deflate, uh...nevermind"

I still haven't worked out the sewer hookups for these things.

And air-realtors will say “blimp prices never come down, deflate, uh…nevermind”

A deflating blimp? It is going to crash!

I still haven’t worked out the sewer hookups for these things

Blimp droppings?

No problem…..they’ll just do what the birds do!

The bathrooms will have black granite, plasma TVs, and Norden bombsights

The bathrooms will have black granite, plasma TVs, and Norden bombsights

LOL!

Isn't weight a problem? Perhaps Corian is lighter?

How do people commute?

Isn’t weight a problem? Perhaps Corian is lighter?

Good idea--a milimeter or two of Corian over foam.

Heating won't be a problem; we'll fill the blimps with hydrogen.

but what about water?

When the hydrogen combines with the free 02 supply, water is the result!

how often does anyone here check to see where the products they buy are made? i go out of my way to try and find goods made in the usa. often you have to pay a little more but if that means a fellow american keeps his job i’m all for it.

I do. If the only choice is made in China, I pass. I will buy items from the Americas. What's great is that the grocery stores now have little placards in front of the meat and seafood stating where it's from. Who the hell trusts farmed shrimp from China or India? Not me. Vote with your wallet man, I hate the companines that out source. Yeah that's great that you can buy 35 towels that are made in china for 2 bucks, but what is the true cost? Plus those jackals are in my opinion not much different from the Borg.

Area with work = insane house prices
Area with reasonable house prices = stagnant local economy

Are you high? The economy is great, inflation is tamed, job creation is at an all time high. Housing is RED HOT, I repeat RED HOT. This is due to the amazing economy. Oh wait a minute, none of that is true. Your blog is now returned to it's normally scheduled programing. Had this been an actual economy you would have a job.

how often does anyone here check to see where the products they buy are made?

Usually everytime...but that doesn't change the fact that even American companies contract production overseas for a higher margin.

Usually everytime…but that doesn’t change the fact that even American companies contract production overseas for a higher margin.

Yeah, but if the average fat assed amerikan consumer would take a look where something is made and choose accordingly, that is, given a product made locally for a slightly higher price, or one made with chinese prison labor, picking the higher priced one might actually be the wise choice. not going to happen here though as it would require actually thinking of someone else, not just yourself, your fat ass, and the price you are paying to gas up your SUV to transport your fat ass. Go burger boy, go!

@surfer-x. Dude, I'm with you in spirit, but...we don't make anything in America anymore. Nothing. We grow some stuff. That's it.