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Inflation or Deflation


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2005 Oct 22, 10:54pm   32,464 views  230 comments

by whitewaterbug   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Which one will it be in the long term. Inflation is "in the news":

http://tinyurl.com/azowd

Deflation isn't in the news as much, but there are major players that predict it (most notably robert prechter).

Inflation would help all those nutty folks that are overextended to their eyeballs (as long as salaries follow).
Deflation would be much better for creditors, and those of us who are in cash right now (yipee). But could also have the negative consequences of a major depression.

What will happen in the next 2-3 years? Inflation? Deflation? Will we get so severe as a depression?

Have fun!!

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9   surfer-x   2005 Oct 24, 8:17am  

Need to focus on something more than just a roof over head.

Like the long period groundswell hammering the Central Coast?

No Fuchs yet. :(

10   KurtS   2005 Oct 24, 8:23am  

We are permanently screwed and there’s no crash that will save us....no light at the end of the tunnel

sounds like a Nirvana song, eh? I don't see things so darkly for the future, more of a short-term screw the investors, than screw everyone. Of course, people that fuxor their finances only have themselves to blame.

Those of you that think you can buy a waterfront property in Seattle with a dock for your boat etc… for $800k, you are wrong. More like 2 million.

Or Bellevue prices. $2M gets you far far more up there than where I live. But--I think you can get a nice Bainbridge home still under $800K. And, if you look hard you'll find something better for that.

What motivation do I have.

There are no guarantees--are there? Each of us makes the most of what we have.
Btw, I grew up living in one of those waterfront, country-club communities on the sound.
I don't have that here, but I'm not going to let it get me down.

11   surfer-x   2005 Oct 24, 8:44am  

We checked Las Cuatro Milpas out on Saturday. Sorry to say that it was a disappointment.

Sorry to hear that, well if you're ever up on the Central Coast I can recommend at least 3 very good, very authentic places. The place in OB is Mariscos (seafood). Good, but not the carne asada, carnitas type of place. I agree that nothing beats the taco carts in PV.

12   surfer-x   2005 Oct 24, 8:48am  

H.Z., if you just want some really good chow, try The Liar's Club in MB, on Mission Bay Blvd. Killer burgers, the fuego burger is amazing, I'd recommend no greater than a "5" (1-10 scale). They have a really good assortment of grub, seared ahi sandwiches etc, family friendly if you go during the day. Gets a bit rowdy in the evenings.

13   quesera   2005 Oct 24, 9:16am  

I agree that nothing beats the taco carts in PV.

I had the best Mexican (taqueria) food of my life in a bus station mini-cafeteria in Chetumal, QR. It was one of those places where you don't really want to eat there, but the vending machines look expired, and the idea of walking a few blocks is even less appealing.

Why is that?? I lived in SF for seven years. I have my fave Mission taquerias, for sure, but nothing quite like that bus station cafeteria. Some part of it has to have been hunger and greatly exceeded expectations, but...the only thing that came close was the taco truck we used to drive to, out I-80 near Hercules (from SF...it was that good.)

And of course, the Tamale Lady who always seemed to arrive at exactly the right time, with her little cooler full of hot tamales...

There must be some circumstantial magic about taqueria food.

BTW, next person who creates a thread... PLEASE nuke the "first post" crap!

14   surfer-x   2005 Oct 24, 9:19am  

hope your cat comes back Surfer-X

Thank you! Me too. I'm caning him when he comes back.

15   OO   2005 Oct 24, 11:02am  

Has anyone actually started to think that this kind of lifestyle erosion for Americans is going to stick?

Honestly, it is not a surprise. Let me reason why. When I used to live in France and Japan, it always amazed me how much people had to pay to get by. France had an unemployment rate of close to 15% (!!), fresh grads couldn't get a job, and all they could do was to pay well over 1/3 of their monthly salary to share a tiny roach-infested apartment with friends. That was around 1990. The only cheap item in France was wine, everything else was more expensive than the US. Then I had a summer study session in Japan, again, people were paying USD 10 for a bowl of noodle (1991 dollar) that oculdn't even suffice as a light lunch. The price in Japan was just so out of whack that I started to question how average Japanese carried on with their lives, but they did nevertheless. Most of my family lives in Australia, the tax rate is higher, the pay is lower, the urban housing affordability is as bad as us, and the price of electronics and white goods is just outrageously expensive even in absolute terms. Why did this happen? The only explanation I had was because the world has been subsidizing the American lifestyle for a long long time and now they are about to say no to the generous subsidy.

One thing Americans take for granted, coming from an ex-foreigner, is how cheap things are in this country, from gas to produce, from housing to cars. Everything is SOOOO cheap in this country compared to the rest of the world, in absolute and comparative terms. Since we've been squandering away wealth so much, I won't be surprised that at some point our lifestyle will start to be "globalized" as well (read: eroding).

Be it inflation or deflation, I believe that the American lifestyle as we know it will be gone forever. Welcome to the rest of the world.

16   Michael Holliday   2005 Oct 24, 11:54am  

Anymore these days, I find myself shopping more and more at the 99 Cent store, where I actually got my little sister a China-made, scientific
calculator for a buck a little while back.

I think everything in the store is made in China, except for the candy...the candy's made in Mexico...

Thank god for Saver's thrift store...that's where I get my golf shirts, some brand new, as well as other sundry items...perhaps a slightly used pair of
patent leather shoes or a belt or tie...for a few bucks.

That's how I'm making it and paying off (barely) my college loans...

Just got my Allstate car insurance bill today. They upped it 10% a month out of friggen' nowhere. Without warning. I've got a perfect driving record. Go figure.

Holy sh-t...I think Seattledude's anaysis is pretty right on!

17   KurtS   2005 Oct 24, 1:45pm  

"...would he really think when he hit some magic number, say 40 grit, that lion’s going to let him know he’s getting close by yawning once and hitting the snooze button?"

LOL.

18   Peter P   2005 Oct 24, 1:46pm  

Scratched iPods lead to lawsuit

So it seems that one can be sued for selling products that are easily scratched.

Just try to imagine when housing prices are "scratched". ;)

19   quesera   2005 Oct 24, 4:12pm  

Eh, whatevs...

So our generation isn't going to have anything handed to us. Big fricken deal. We've known or suspected this for twenty years.

Are we really reduced to jealous whining when other people win the economic cycle lottery?

Seriously. Don't kid yourself that we would have made more enlightened decisions if we had been The Ones. We wouldn't have. It just doesn't work that way. We have the opportunity to be wiser than the foreborn, because the lessons of their more egregious mistakes are still fresh. But the world, the economy, politics, social structures...everything is much more complicated than it was a generation ago. There will be new lessons to be learned, as soon as the regressive mystics relinquish power (by vote, by fiat, or by death). Don't be so sure that we'll get it right either.

O tempores! O mores!

20   SQT15   2005 Oct 24, 4:20pm  

**Yawn**

Ditto

21   Michael Holliday   2005 Oct 24, 11:47pm  

'...And when I called my “fast, friendly Farmers Agent” and asked why the rates went up, you will never guess what I was told: “Just inflation I guess” ….'

"I am serious. He really said that."

Yes, yes. I can believe it. I can suspend me disbelief, even.

I can believe it because after seeing the moral violence of the
dotcom mania in action and masochistic fiscal hysteria of the
housing bubble tragedy as it unfolds, I can just about believe
anything...

He's probably just a poor gen-x slob like me, with a
masters degree, caught between low wages, high housing
prices, real inflation ignored...looking both ways,
like a cross-eyed buffoon for what the fvck just hit us
and what the fvck's coming down the tracks like a freight train!

Lookout below!

Wouldn't it be nice to even have a 5% wage increase/raise
as a sort of half-ass attempt to offset the increase in prices
of everyday sh-t, like the blue-collar baloney sammiches I pack
into my retro, Star Wars lunchpail, and my gourmet Pork&Beans dinners?

& beans?

22   KurtS   2005 Oct 25, 12:56am  

The boomer are really the cause for everything wrong these days.

You're posting this to here and "Bay Area Rebirth".

Pick one, so we don't bloat the thread needlessly.

23   Peter P   2005 Oct 25, 1:01am  

Existing home sale report is out.

National median is down month-to-month. Prices are down 8% in the west from last month.

Inventory level is up nearly 20% year-over-year.

24   Peter P   2005 Oct 25, 1:02am  

The boomer are really the cause for everything wrong these days.

You’re posting this to here and “Bay Area Rebirth”.

Pick one, so we don’t bloat the thread needlessly.

If you do want to bloat a thread, please do so in "Huh?". There is no thread bubble!

25   Peter P   2005 Oct 25, 1:31am  

seattledude, is homeownership the only motivation of your life? Shouldn't the motivation be something bigger, like jet ownership?

26   Jamie   2005 Oct 25, 1:36am  

"Shouldn’t the motivation be something bigger, like jet ownership?"

Or blimp ownership?

27   KurtS   2005 Oct 25, 1:45am  

Or blimp ownership?

Or a blimp converted to mobile condos?

28   Jamie   2005 Oct 25, 1:55am  

"Or a blimp converted to mobile condos?"

But then someone will think to start charging for air space, and then California will figure out a way to tax the air space. And then there will be an air estate bubble, and many birds will die on account of flying into blimps.

29   Peter P   2005 Oct 25, 1:55am  

Or a blimp converted to mobile condos?

Ocean view blimp condo with granite countertops. Starting at low 700's.

30   Jamie   2005 Oct 25, 1:58am  

"Ocean view blimp condo with granite countertops. Starting at low 700’s."

Lowly land owners will get pissed that the blimp owners are obscuring their views and blocking out the sun.

31   KurtS   2005 Oct 25, 2:03am  

And then there will be an air estate bubble, and many birds will die on account of flying into blimps.

And air-realtors will say "blimp prices never come down, deflate, uh...nevermind"

I still haven't worked out the sewer hookups for these things.

32   Peter P   2005 Oct 25, 2:14am  

And air-realtors will say “blimp prices never come down, deflate, uh…nevermind”

A deflating blimp? It is going to crash!

I still haven’t worked out the sewer hookups for these things

Blimp droppings?

33   KurtS   2005 Oct 25, 2:15am  

No problem…..they’ll just do what the birds do!

The bathrooms will have black granite, plasma TVs, and Norden bombsights

34   Peter P   2005 Oct 25, 2:17am  

The bathrooms will have black granite, plasma TVs, and Norden bombsights

LOL!

Isn't weight a problem? Perhaps Corian is lighter?

How do people commute?

35   KurtS   2005 Oct 25, 2:37am  

Isn’t weight a problem? Perhaps Corian is lighter?

Good idea--a milimeter or two of Corian over foam.

Heating won't be a problem; we'll fill the blimps with hydrogen.

but what about water?

When the hydrogen combines with the free 02 supply, water is the result!

36   surfer-x   2005 Oct 25, 4:04am  

how often does anyone here check to see where the products they buy are made? i go out of my way to try and find goods made in the usa. often you have to pay a little more but if that means a fellow american keeps his job i’m all for it.

I do. If the only choice is made in China, I pass. I will buy items from the Americas. What's great is that the grocery stores now have little placards in front of the meat and seafood stating where it's from. Who the hell trusts farmed shrimp from China or India? Not me. Vote with your wallet man, I hate the companines that out source. Yeah that's great that you can buy 35 towels that are made in china for 2 bucks, but what is the true cost? Plus those jackals are in my opinion not much different from the Borg.

37   surfer-x   2005 Oct 25, 4:07am  

Area with work = insane house prices
Area with reasonable house prices = stagnant local economy

Are you high? The economy is great, inflation is tamed, job creation is at an all time high. Housing is RED HOT, I repeat RED HOT. This is due to the amazing economy. Oh wait a minute, none of that is true. Your blog is now returned to it's normally scheduled programing. Had this been an actual economy you would have a job.

38   KurtS   2005 Oct 25, 4:11am  

how often does anyone here check to see where the products they buy are made?

Usually everytime...but that doesn't change the fact that even American companies contract production overseas for a higher margin.

39   surfer-x   2005 Oct 25, 4:14am  

Usually everytime…but that doesn’t change the fact that even American companies contract production overseas for a higher margin.

Yeah, but if the average fat assed amerikan consumer would take a look where something is made and choose accordingly, that is, given a product made locally for a slightly higher price, or one made with chinese prison labor, picking the higher priced one might actually be the wise choice. not going to happen here though as it would require actually thinking of someone else, not just yourself, your fat ass, and the price you are paying to gas up your SUV to transport your fat ass. Go burger boy, go!

40   quesera   2005 Oct 25, 4:22am  

@surfer-x. Dude, I'm with you in spirit, but...we don't make anything in America anymore. Nothing. We grow some stuff. That's it.

41   surfer-x   2005 Oct 25, 4:26am  

Quesera, Tons of stuff is still made here, you just pay thru the nose and it's hard to find. Kweejibo makes killer shirts, they are in SF, but the shirts are made by our own sweatshops in Oaktown.

For appliances I buy old crap off ebay, works killer and is bulletproof, just fixed my friends Oster Model 403 blender. I'm sick of the crap crammed down our throats, this country "used" to be great. I'm sickened by the boomer orgy going on. Shameful.

42   KurtS   2005 Oct 25, 4:41am  

"...if the average fat assed amerikan consumer would take a look where something is made and choose accordingly, that is, given a product made locally for a slightly higher price..."

Sure--if it's available. Look around for an American-made technology product, it will be a difficult search. Who is going to pay American wages for a printer, camera, or laptop?

However, I did just buy a local, hand-made piece of furniture. I'm willing to pay for quality if it makes a difference in the end.

43   surfer-x   2005 Oct 25, 4:45am  

Sure–if it’s available. Look around for an American-made technology product, it will be a difficult search. Who is going to pay American wages for a printer, camera, or laptop?

Were we ever given this choice? The second the companies figured out that they can make an extra 2 bucks per printer, off to china they went. As the Dude says "theres a lot of ins and outs man, new shit has recently come to light". Unions, greedy CEO's whose only concern is their bonus, and sheep like consumers are all to blame. For killer furniture, check out bentwood out of Oregon.

44   quesera   2005 Oct 25, 4:50am  

Again, I'm with you in spirit. But in 80+% of cases, it's not only impractical or undesireable to buy American-made products, it's impossible.

The economic intelligentsia tells us that this is a good thing, but I think their arguments are ignorant or self-serving...usually both. When the production jobs are farmed out to hungrier countries, what do the lower strata of American workers do with their time? Provide services to each other..OK.

There are boutique manufacturers left in America. My wife runs (a small) one of them. The scaling factor is such that she can't grow beyond a certain size without outsourcing production, which she isn't willing to do. So she's relegated to manufacturing high-priced low-volume products that sell really well in a niche market. It works fine for her business goals, but it doesn't help the local economy in any meaningful way. This isn't anyone's fault, per se. To grow, her products would have to be less expensive, so labor costs would have to be reduced, which can't be done locally.

Nearly every other manufacturer in America is in the same situation. They all metamorph into development and marketing shells in the US, with manufacturing facilities overseas. Again, we're told this is a good thing...!

45   quesera   2005 Oct 25, 4:55am  

...and yeah, we were given a choice!

When we were kids, manufacturing of technology goods was not an exclusively Far Eastern business!

The manufacturers that didn't shift overseas by the 1980s were dead. They couldn't compete.

OK, so it was our parents that were given the choice. See my rant from last night for my thoughts on that issue. : )

46   surfer-x   2005 Oct 25, 4:57am  

I've always been puzzled by why each time I go to Japan or Germany, there are tons and tons of Japanese and German made products available. There is no reason why things couldn't be made here. Vans shoes for one. Used to be family owned and then got too big and failed, bought by Compuglobalmegahypercorp and off to china they go. I think greed is to blame, why have a decent mid-sized company making a pretty good living when you could outsource and have MORE. I saw it first hand with Santa Cruz bicycles, amazing bikes, hand made frames from Oregon, then POW, made in Taiwan. What's odd is that the price of the bikes didn't go down, so who's pockets are being lined. Still I find it odd that other countries will embrace locally manufactured goods, but we as a country can't wait to send our manufacturing overseas. I totally agree with your point, what are the majority of people to do? Service? Come on, I don't see many factory works transistioning into the Gentlemans Gentleman. But I hear that there's a booming market for toilet lickers and helmet buffers. I wonder how much longer it can go on, how much longer will people be placated by their TV opiates?

47   surfer-x   2005 Oct 25, 4:58am  

OK, so it was our parents that were given the choice. See my rant from last night for my thoughts on that issue. :

Lets call them by their proper names, The Boomers.

48   quesera   2005 Oct 25, 5:08am  

Still I find it odd that other countries will embrace locally manufactured goods, but we as a country can’t wait to send our manufacturing overseas.

But that's just it. Those countries don't squawk about the incredible disparity between the rich and the working class. They just build shit like they're told to, and save what they can, hoping for a better future. It isn't so much that they embrace locally produced goods as that locally produced goods are affordable (and their governments are a tad protectionist at times...but that's another story..)

And their better future will come, because when you have a factory full of a thousand workers making furniture, and all you need to shift the trade balance is: a) a couple of smart and talented folks to tell you what to build, and b) a team of mercenary American marketers to sell your new products to the largest consumer market in the world...well...the smart money says "just be patient a little longer".

Then again, most companies are simply trying to stay competitive. Just an observation; no real answers.

Well, I think that's the whole truth and nothing but the truth. A lot of jobs in the world don't require much more than a few days or weeks of training. These can be given to anyone who can tie their shoes (how Western of me!). People with shoe-tying equivalent skills can be found cheaper elsewhere, and as soon as one company does so, everyone in their sector has to follow suit or get eaten.

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