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Inflation or Deflation


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2005 Oct 22, 10:54pm   32,465 views  230 comments

by whitewaterbug   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Which one will it be in the long term. Inflation is "in the news":

http://tinyurl.com/azowd

Deflation isn't in the news as much, but there are major players that predict it (most notably robert prechter).

Inflation would help all those nutty folks that are overextended to their eyeballs (as long as salaries follow).
Deflation would be much better for creditors, and those of us who are in cash right now (yipee). But could also have the negative consequences of a major depression.

What will happen in the next 2-3 years? Inflation? Deflation? Will we get so severe as a depression?

Have fun!!

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17   KurtS   2005 Oct 24, 1:45pm  

"...would he really think when he hit some magic number, say 40 grit, that lion’s going to let him know he’s getting close by yawning once and hitting the snooze button?"

LOL.

18   Peter P   2005 Oct 24, 1:46pm  

Scratched iPods lead to lawsuit

So it seems that one can be sued for selling products that are easily scratched.

Just try to imagine when housing prices are "scratched". ;)

19   quesera   2005 Oct 24, 4:12pm  

Eh, whatevs...

So our generation isn't going to have anything handed to us. Big fricken deal. We've known or suspected this for twenty years.

Are we really reduced to jealous whining when other people win the economic cycle lottery?

Seriously. Don't kid yourself that we would have made more enlightened decisions if we had been The Ones. We wouldn't have. It just doesn't work that way. We have the opportunity to be wiser than the foreborn, because the lessons of their more egregious mistakes are still fresh. But the world, the economy, politics, social structures...everything is much more complicated than it was a generation ago. There will be new lessons to be learned, as soon as the regressive mystics relinquish power (by vote, by fiat, or by death). Don't be so sure that we'll get it right either.

O tempores! O mores!

20   SQT15   2005 Oct 24, 4:20pm  

**Yawn**

Ditto

21   Michael Holliday   2005 Oct 24, 11:47pm  

'...And when I called my “fast, friendly Farmers Agent” and asked why the rates went up, you will never guess what I was told: “Just inflation I guess” ….'

"I am serious. He really said that."

Yes, yes. I can believe it. I can suspend me disbelief, even.

I can believe it because after seeing the moral violence of the
dotcom mania in action and masochistic fiscal hysteria of the
housing bubble tragedy as it unfolds, I can just about believe
anything...

He's probably just a poor gen-x slob like me, with a
masters degree, caught between low wages, high housing
prices, real inflation ignored...looking both ways,
like a cross-eyed buffoon for what the fvck just hit us
and what the fvck's coming down the tracks like a freight train!

Lookout below!

Wouldn't it be nice to even have a 5% wage increase/raise
as a sort of half-ass attempt to offset the increase in prices
of everyday sh-t, like the blue-collar baloney sammiches I pack
into my retro, Star Wars lunchpail, and my gourmet Pork&Beans dinners?

& beans?

22   KurtS   2005 Oct 25, 12:56am  

The boomer are really the cause for everything wrong these days.

You're posting this to here and "Bay Area Rebirth".

Pick one, so we don't bloat the thread needlessly.

23   Peter P   2005 Oct 25, 1:01am  

Existing home sale report is out.

National median is down month-to-month. Prices are down 8% in the west from last month.

Inventory level is up nearly 20% year-over-year.

24   Peter P   2005 Oct 25, 1:02am  

The boomer are really the cause for everything wrong these days.

You’re posting this to here and “Bay Area Rebirth”.

Pick one, so we don’t bloat the thread needlessly.

If you do want to bloat a thread, please do so in "Huh?". There is no thread bubble!

25   Peter P   2005 Oct 25, 1:31am  

seattledude, is homeownership the only motivation of your life? Shouldn't the motivation be something bigger, like jet ownership?

26   Jamie   2005 Oct 25, 1:36am  

"Shouldn’t the motivation be something bigger, like jet ownership?"

Or blimp ownership?

27   KurtS   2005 Oct 25, 1:45am  

Or blimp ownership?

Or a blimp converted to mobile condos?

28   Jamie   2005 Oct 25, 1:55am  

"Or a blimp converted to mobile condos?"

But then someone will think to start charging for air space, and then California will figure out a way to tax the air space. And then there will be an air estate bubble, and many birds will die on account of flying into blimps.

29   Peter P   2005 Oct 25, 1:55am  

Or a blimp converted to mobile condos?

Ocean view blimp condo with granite countertops. Starting at low 700's.

30   Jamie   2005 Oct 25, 1:58am  

"Ocean view blimp condo with granite countertops. Starting at low 700’s."

Lowly land owners will get pissed that the blimp owners are obscuring their views and blocking out the sun.

31   KurtS   2005 Oct 25, 2:03am  

And then there will be an air estate bubble, and many birds will die on account of flying into blimps.

And air-realtors will say "blimp prices never come down, deflate, uh...nevermind"

I still haven't worked out the sewer hookups for these things.

32   Peter P   2005 Oct 25, 2:14am  

And air-realtors will say “blimp prices never come down, deflate, uh…nevermind”

A deflating blimp? It is going to crash!

I still haven’t worked out the sewer hookups for these things

Blimp droppings?

33   KurtS   2005 Oct 25, 2:15am  

No problem…..they’ll just do what the birds do!

The bathrooms will have black granite, plasma TVs, and Norden bombsights

34   Peter P   2005 Oct 25, 2:17am  

The bathrooms will have black granite, plasma TVs, and Norden bombsights

LOL!

Isn't weight a problem? Perhaps Corian is lighter?

How do people commute?

35   KurtS   2005 Oct 25, 2:37am  

Isn’t weight a problem? Perhaps Corian is lighter?

Good idea--a milimeter or two of Corian over foam.

Heating won't be a problem; we'll fill the blimps with hydrogen.

but what about water?

When the hydrogen combines with the free 02 supply, water is the result!

36   surfer-x   2005 Oct 25, 4:04am  

how often does anyone here check to see where the products they buy are made? i go out of my way to try and find goods made in the usa. often you have to pay a little more but if that means a fellow american keeps his job i’m all for it.

I do. If the only choice is made in China, I pass. I will buy items from the Americas. What's great is that the grocery stores now have little placards in front of the meat and seafood stating where it's from. Who the hell trusts farmed shrimp from China or India? Not me. Vote with your wallet man, I hate the companines that out source. Yeah that's great that you can buy 35 towels that are made in china for 2 bucks, but what is the true cost? Plus those jackals are in my opinion not much different from the Borg.

37   surfer-x   2005 Oct 25, 4:07am  

Area with work = insane house prices
Area with reasonable house prices = stagnant local economy

Are you high? The economy is great, inflation is tamed, job creation is at an all time high. Housing is RED HOT, I repeat RED HOT. This is due to the amazing economy. Oh wait a minute, none of that is true. Your blog is now returned to it's normally scheduled programing. Had this been an actual economy you would have a job.

38   KurtS   2005 Oct 25, 4:11am  

how often does anyone here check to see where the products they buy are made?

Usually everytime...but that doesn't change the fact that even American companies contract production overseas for a higher margin.

39   surfer-x   2005 Oct 25, 4:14am  

Usually everytime…but that doesn’t change the fact that even American companies contract production overseas for a higher margin.

Yeah, but if the average fat assed amerikan consumer would take a look where something is made and choose accordingly, that is, given a product made locally for a slightly higher price, or one made with chinese prison labor, picking the higher priced one might actually be the wise choice. not going to happen here though as it would require actually thinking of someone else, not just yourself, your fat ass, and the price you are paying to gas up your SUV to transport your fat ass. Go burger boy, go!

40   quesera   2005 Oct 25, 4:22am  

@surfer-x. Dude, I'm with you in spirit, but...we don't make anything in America anymore. Nothing. We grow some stuff. That's it.

41   surfer-x   2005 Oct 25, 4:26am  

Quesera, Tons of stuff is still made here, you just pay thru the nose and it's hard to find. Kweejibo makes killer shirts, they are in SF, but the shirts are made by our own sweatshops in Oaktown.

For appliances I buy old crap off ebay, works killer and is bulletproof, just fixed my friends Oster Model 403 blender. I'm sick of the crap crammed down our throats, this country "used" to be great. I'm sickened by the boomer orgy going on. Shameful.

42   KurtS   2005 Oct 25, 4:41am  

"...if the average fat assed amerikan consumer would take a look where something is made and choose accordingly, that is, given a product made locally for a slightly higher price..."

Sure--if it's available. Look around for an American-made technology product, it will be a difficult search. Who is going to pay American wages for a printer, camera, or laptop?

However, I did just buy a local, hand-made piece of furniture. I'm willing to pay for quality if it makes a difference in the end.

43   surfer-x   2005 Oct 25, 4:45am  

Sure–if it’s available. Look around for an American-made technology product, it will be a difficult search. Who is going to pay American wages for a printer, camera, or laptop?

Were we ever given this choice? The second the companies figured out that they can make an extra 2 bucks per printer, off to china they went. As the Dude says "theres a lot of ins and outs man, new shit has recently come to light". Unions, greedy CEO's whose only concern is their bonus, and sheep like consumers are all to blame. For killer furniture, check out bentwood out of Oregon.

44   quesera   2005 Oct 25, 4:50am  

Again, I'm with you in spirit. But in 80+% of cases, it's not only impractical or undesireable to buy American-made products, it's impossible.

The economic intelligentsia tells us that this is a good thing, but I think their arguments are ignorant or self-serving...usually both. When the production jobs are farmed out to hungrier countries, what do the lower strata of American workers do with their time? Provide services to each other..OK.

There are boutique manufacturers left in America. My wife runs (a small) one of them. The scaling factor is such that she can't grow beyond a certain size without outsourcing production, which she isn't willing to do. So she's relegated to manufacturing high-priced low-volume products that sell really well in a niche market. It works fine for her business goals, but it doesn't help the local economy in any meaningful way. This isn't anyone's fault, per se. To grow, her products would have to be less expensive, so labor costs would have to be reduced, which can't be done locally.

Nearly every other manufacturer in America is in the same situation. They all metamorph into development and marketing shells in the US, with manufacturing facilities overseas. Again, we're told this is a good thing...!

45   quesera   2005 Oct 25, 4:55am  

...and yeah, we were given a choice!

When we were kids, manufacturing of technology goods was not an exclusively Far Eastern business!

The manufacturers that didn't shift overseas by the 1980s were dead. They couldn't compete.

OK, so it was our parents that were given the choice. See my rant from last night for my thoughts on that issue. : )

46   surfer-x   2005 Oct 25, 4:57am  

I've always been puzzled by why each time I go to Japan or Germany, there are tons and tons of Japanese and German made products available. There is no reason why things couldn't be made here. Vans shoes for one. Used to be family owned and then got too big and failed, bought by Compuglobalmegahypercorp and off to china they go. I think greed is to blame, why have a decent mid-sized company making a pretty good living when you could outsource and have MORE. I saw it first hand with Santa Cruz bicycles, amazing bikes, hand made frames from Oregon, then POW, made in Taiwan. What's odd is that the price of the bikes didn't go down, so who's pockets are being lined. Still I find it odd that other countries will embrace locally manufactured goods, but we as a country can't wait to send our manufacturing overseas. I totally agree with your point, what are the majority of people to do? Service? Come on, I don't see many factory works transistioning into the Gentlemans Gentleman. But I hear that there's a booming market for toilet lickers and helmet buffers. I wonder how much longer it can go on, how much longer will people be placated by their TV opiates?

47   surfer-x   2005 Oct 25, 4:58am  

OK, so it was our parents that were given the choice. See my rant from last night for my thoughts on that issue. :

Lets call them by their proper names, The Boomers.

48   quesera   2005 Oct 25, 5:08am  

Still I find it odd that other countries will embrace locally manufactured goods, but we as a country can’t wait to send our manufacturing overseas.

But that's just it. Those countries don't squawk about the incredible disparity between the rich and the working class. They just build shit like they're told to, and save what they can, hoping for a better future. It isn't so much that they embrace locally produced goods as that locally produced goods are affordable (and their governments are a tad protectionist at times...but that's another story..)

And their better future will come, because when you have a factory full of a thousand workers making furniture, and all you need to shift the trade balance is: a) a couple of smart and talented folks to tell you what to build, and b) a team of mercenary American marketers to sell your new products to the largest consumer market in the world...well...the smart money says "just be patient a little longer".

Then again, most companies are simply trying to stay competitive. Just an observation; no real answers.

Well, I think that's the whole truth and nothing but the truth. A lot of jobs in the world don't require much more than a few days or weeks of training. These can be given to anyone who can tie their shoes (how Western of me!). People with shoe-tying equivalent skills can be found cheaper elsewhere, and as soon as one company does so, everyone in their sector has to follow suit or get eaten.

49   surfer-x   2005 Oct 25, 6:17am  

Just remember, your average boomer is not making those outsourcing decisions. I think it was Marx that predicted the life cycle of capitalism.
Oh really, hmmm, how come at the end of WWII, say even into the 50's, when you could cheaply outsource anything to anywhere, it didn't happen? There has been an absolute acceleration of the outsourcing rate which I bet exactly tracks the rise of boomers in the executive ranks. Now if a product can be made for pennies cheaper somewhere else, they'll pack up the factory and move it. Yes, it was the boomers than discovered that by squeezing every last nickel out of you they made significantly more money. Is the pay of the average CEO an artifact of capitalism or boomer greed? Is it just me or has anyone else noticed the change in the way business is done in the US. From my vantage point I see no service and a willing attitude to screw you out of the last penny. Sales? No problem, here it is. Have an issue or a problem with a bill? "due to exceptionally high call volume your wait time will be over 3 days". Yes, it was the boomers who discovered that by first fucking you and then waiting for you to squeal before refunding your money, they got more. Then an even smarter boomer discovered that by fucking you first and waiting to you really really really squealled the got even more money. These guys are pure genius. Can anyone provide an example of a prior generation behaving in the manner of Dennis Kowolski? Hmmm were there ice statues pee'n vodka, on the companies dime, for your trophy wife's b-day, during the WWII gen tenure?

50   surfer-x   2005 Oct 25, 6:20am  

Just suspend your belief for one second and imagine a future when robots do all the manufacturing

I thought the robots, whoops I meant Chinese, were already doing this.

51   KurtS   2005 Oct 25, 6:39am  

For killer furniture, check out bentwood out of Oregon.

The mission line looks good, thanks.
Here's my favorite maker, but I doubt I can justify spending this much:
http://www.berkeleymills.com/

52   surfer-x   2005 Oct 25, 6:43am  

Yeah, I've found berkeley mills to be just way way way too expensive, plus I am rather fond of the mission/arts crafts style.

53   surfer-x   2005 Oct 25, 6:45am  

Would you rather have more Toyota

More toyota, at least the japanese management seems to be immune to the greed that US companies embrace.

54   Jamie   2005 Oct 25, 6:46am  

"The fact is, none of you want to do manufacturing, given a choice. The real issues lies not in who is going to do the physical work, which nobody really wants to."

Where I grew up, manufacturing jobs are still considered a prize even today among my not-so-skilled former classmates. They're way better than the crappy service industry jobs that are the alternative. So, it all depends on perspective.

I do agree that we have to let go of the idea that manufacturing jobs will ever return en masse to the US.

Regarding a future in which robots do the grunt work, what I wonder is what jobs will then be available to all the less-than-skilled people. Robot repair? Or will that be a white-collar job? Will we be a nation divided between the educated class and the rest, who are all working at Walmart?

55   KurtS   2005 Oct 25, 6:54am  


Yeah, I’ve found berkeley mills to be just way way way too expensive, plus I am rather fond of the mission/arts crafts style.

Yeah, I'm not planning to drop $10K on a dining table.
I found a good mission style maker up here--for far less. The downside of handmade is the 3 mo. wait.

56   SQT15   2005 Oct 25, 7:03am  

My friend from Elko predicts the planet will not exist beyond my 20-something daughter’s lifetime. And he was a Darwinian high school biology teacher. No Phd, but I common sense man who predicted we will self-destruct.

And people say us bubbleheads are full of doom and gloom. Reminds me of those cartoons where the guy with the long beard walks around with the sign saying "the end is near." No offense to your friend, but I suspect people have been predicting our self destruction for many many years. I expect this was especially true during the Cold War.

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