patrick.net

What's an MSA?

Metropolitan statistical area.

http://www.acronymfinder.com/Metropolitan-Statistical-Area-(MSA).html

Check the date on the article though... it's almost two years old.

I'd be interesting to see how close the predictions were to what ultimately has happened since.

Yeah - I just noticed that was from 2009. I live on Long Island, which was 5th in the list on the original report (from March 2009). Prices have come down since then, but definitely not 40%. Here is a good source for historical listing prices - http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/new-york/long-island/

From mid 2009, you see about a 12-15% drop. The DB report doesn't state the timeframe, so it's still possible. I personally think things have a ways to fall here, but it's just happening slower. Our bubble was built over 7-8 years, so it will take longer to deflate...or so the theory goes.

The same DB analyst who predicted a 40% drop for NYC prices also predicted that 50% of homeowners would be underwater by 2011:

http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-half-of-us-homeowners-underwater-by-2011-2009-8?op=1

Currently, 23% of homeowners are underwater.

Be very careful about public predictions made by banks. As we have recently seen in cases invovling banks like Goldman Sachs, what banks say in public is often very different than what they say in private.

also very true. When it comes to stocks im 100% more skeptical. This whole housing thing is unprecedented, so I think it's very difficult to predict how it will all play out. I remember tons of people screaming that 2011/2012 was going to be the bottom back in 08/09. There are too many other factors that come into play in the meantime to be able to pick out a specific date of the bottom. 3 years ago, no one even heard of "strategic default."