patrick.net

Nearly every metro except Washington DC and... maybe, San Jose.

*** qoute from the article ***
Housing prices in all but one of the 20 cities tracked by Standard & Poor's/Case Shiller fell in December from November. And the overall index declined for the sixth straight month. Washington was the only metro area where prices rose month to month.
***

I still can't understand WTF is so special about washington DC metro. One thing is quite certain. Some people here in DC metro are rich as fuck for sure.

Matthew Hartman, a 38-year-old sales manager in Chicago, thought he was getting a steal in 2009 when he bought a four-bedroom house for $395,000. He sold it last month for $370,000.

"We kind of thought that the market was toward the bottom, especially when we moved here in August of last year," he said. "We thought we got a great deal on this house."

i'm sure the realtor told him it was a great time to buy and prices could only go up.

Massive government debt/deficit spending is what's keeping DC going. Counties in the USA with large public sector employment have fared FAR better during this downturn than ones dominated by real, private industry/enterprise.

schmitz_kris says

Massive government debt/deficit spending is what’s keeping DC going. Counties in the USA with large public sector employment have fared FAR better during this downturn than ones dominated by real, private industry/enterprise.

Most of the civilized world artificially raised their standard of living via historic amounts of debt. Now the dance is over, the band is packing up their instruments and they want to be paid. This is going to be one ugly summer, IMO.

Have some entrepreneurial spirit, Ray. You could make millions selling lemonade and snacks to all of the hungry, marching protesters and those rioting in the streets.

How much money do you think a guy selling coffee and warm muffins/rolls could've made "working" the Wisconsin State Capitol grounds these last few days?

RayAmerica says

schmitz_kris says

Massive government debt/deficit spending is what’s keeping DC going. Counties in the USA with large public sector employment have fared FAR better during this downturn than ones dominated by real, private industry/enterprise.

Most of the civilized world artificially raised their standard of living via historic amounts of debt. Now the dance is over, the band is packing up their instruments and they want to be paid. This is going to be one ugly summer, IMO.

So true.

http://patrick.net/?p=631915

schmitz_kris says

How much money do you think a guy selling coffee and warm muffins/rolls could’ve made “working” the Wisconsin State Capitol grounds these last few days?

In order to be successful in business, you always have to know and understand your market. Those aren't coffee drinkers down there in Madison. I'd be serving up some refreshing, hot Kool-Aid along with organic Tofu on pita bread (whole wheat of course). If I could only hitch a ride on a Hybrid I'd be heading down there. A solar car would be much better (is there such a thing? if not, WHY NOT?).

Touche.

Matthew Hartman, a 38-year-old sales manager in Chicago, thought he was getting a steal in 2009 when he bought a four-bedroom house for $395,000. He sold it last month for $370,000.

So he paid $25k to rent a four-bedroom house for two years. $1000 per month. That's not all that expensive.

Heres my new housing affordability equation for this era of permanent high foreclosure/low or negative house price appeciation:

If you can gain back 100% of your down payment and other closing costs/maintenance during the 1-3 years you will squat in your inevitable future foreclosure AND the loan is non recourse then BUY!

Michinaga says

So he paid $25k to rent a four-bedroom house for two years. $1000 per month. That’s not all that expensive.

You'll have to add in the acquisition and disposition fees -- 10% or so, right?

Property tax is another 4%, interest cost, another 4%. Total cost of ownership on the two-year hold is maybe 20% of $395,000 -- ~$75,000, aside from the capital loss of $25,000.

$100,000 over two years isn't so hot, more like $4000/mo.

seaside says

I still can’t understand WTF is so special about washington DC metro. One thing is quite certain. Some people here in DC metro are rich as fuck for sure.

I live in the DC area. It's not special, and there aren't that many "rich as fuck" people. Just a whole lot of dual-income families buying $500k houses, that's all. Prices went up significantly here (now up roughly 100% from a decade ago with only a ~30% increase in household GDP).

I really cannot think of a reason that these prices are sustaining. Unemployment isn't the reason - it's reflected in regional GDP and is fairly constant here and elsewhere. Just a region of dreamers. Yes, the shitty rambler 20 miles from DC that they bought for $300k in 2001 is really worth $600k today, LOL.

Michinaga says

Matthew Hartman, a 38-year-old sales manager in Chicago, thought he was getting a steal in 2009 when he bought a four-bedroom house for $395,000. He sold it last month for $370,000.

So he paid $25k to rent a four-bedroom house for two years. $1000 per month. That’s not all that expensive.

Plus potential closing costs, furnishing, upgrading, etc Who knows?

Oh yah, and the REA costs of what...6% * 375K.....~23K?

Such a great deal.

Who the hell buys a house for 1-2 years? What in the world are these people thinking?

dodgerfanjohn says

Who the hell buys a house for 1-2 years? What in the world are these people thinking?

Mortgage interest tax deduction. They buy because the govt is bribing them to pay interest. Talk about a dinosaur that is overdue for extinction, that's on the top of the list.

Karl Case noted yesterday that the slide may be slowing its velocity. Here's some commentary I wrote elsewhere.
The previous month to month drops (SF Index) were absolute disasters. I'm going to agree with Mr. Case; the 1.0% month to month drop of the SF Index is putting us in closer proximity to the Nov.-Dec drops of 1991 (0.92%) and 1992 (0.93%). My guess (at this point) is that the SF Index will be able to eek out weak seasonal gains; it won't turn positive until April (given the poor showing of SF in the Clear Capital Jan. report), at the earliest. New relative lows for 2012.

Of general interest from the CS data, Cleveland and Vegas just breached 100 (joining Detroit, who did so 2 years ago).

klarek says

dodgerfanjohn says

Who the hell buys a house for 1-2 years? What in the world are these people thinking?

Mortgage interest tax deduction. They buy because the govt is bribing them to pay interest. Talk about a dinosaur that is overdue for extinction, that’s on the top of the list.

I do realize that people do this.

I just think they are not real bright as the costs to sell a home basically wipe out the savings. Not to mention REA fees and possible decline in market. Oh, like the guy in this article :P

RayAmerica says

schmitz_kris says

How much money do you think a guy selling coffee and warm muffins/rolls could’ve made “working” the Wisconsin State Capitol grounds these last few days?

In order to be successful in business, you always have to know and understand your market. Those aren’t coffee drinkers down there in Madison. I’d be serving up some refreshing, hot Kool-Aid along with organic Tofu on pita bread (whole wheat of course). If I could only hitch a ride on a Hybrid I’d be heading down there. A solar car would be much better (is there such a thing? if not, WHY NOT?).

Ray
It's really super F**king good coffee with real half and half and naturally refined sugar on the side. That would be a hit. (try Peets coffee in CA) or (stump town coffee in Portland or Seattle order online :-)

choice of fresh baked baguette with butter or fresh baked scones
Bannana/apple
$5.00
refills
$1.00

my cart would be running circles around your cart.
see ya at the next one.

dodgerfanjohn says

I just think they are not real bright as the costs to sell a home basically wipe out the savings.

It's not a matter of being a stupid person, they just look at it simply, or traditionally. Since real estate is (unfortunately) still viewed as fairly riskless, it doesn't take much for some shady real estate or mortgage fuck to convince a young person to "dig in" and get their govt bribe. The MID only exists at this point to back up the propaganda used by the real estate leeches, that our govt will bribe them if they take on debt, and by magnitudes proportionate to the debt (bigger loan, bigger bribe).

Mr.Fantastic says

Yeah, Realtor logic is great. Pay $1 to get back 65 cents! It’s a great deal! Buying a home always makes sense!

People buy into that shit. After all, realtors are the market experts!

klarek, well, you already knew what I am talking about.

Something like this

http://www.redfin.com/MD/Potomac/10204-Iron-Gate-Rd-20854/home/10925415

and this

http://www.redfin.com/MD/Potomac/9411-Newbridge-Dr-20854/home/17529547

make our usual 400~600K home (that does not have elevator in it) look like a shit, not to mention those 150K SFHs in oxen hill. If they're not rich as F, I don't know who does. Bill gates?

10% Price drop in 100 houses in oxen hill doesn't mean nothing if few grand houses like that gain 10% in value. Wow, DC metro market is going up! I think that's the kind of BS happening in DC metro area.

I still don't get it why people have to pay a million for something like this.

http://www.redfin.com/DC/Washington/1032-29th-St-NW-20007/home/28473328

But... for ordinary working people who earn close to median income, I completely agree on what you said. It sounds just not right.

seaside says

Something like this

http://www.redfin.com/MD/Potomac/10204-Iron-Gate-Rd-20854/home/10925415

and this

http://www.redfin.com/MD/Potomac/9411-Newbridge-Dr-20854/home/17529547

make our usual 400~600K home (that does not have elevator in it) look like a shit, not to mention those 150K SFHs in oxen hill. If they’re not rich as F, I don’t know who does. Bill gates?

Those houses are anomalies. Lots of rich foreigners and "old money" types living up there. I see their spoiled Saudi/UAE/Kuwaiti kids cruising M street in Georgetown on Friday nights in their $150k Benzes. DC isn't like NYC, we don't have a whole lot of $500k/year high-rollers, just a lot of $100k/year folks buying houses on dual incomes. That, and old money.